Covid #35: I am the Alpha and the Omega.

[Heartofice]

29 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Cases up again these last two days in the UK, along with a drop in testing, after a drop in numbers of new ones over a few days.

Go see the UK thread and stop reading the bloody guardian 

[Padraig]

19 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

Go see the UK thread and stop reading the bloody guardian 

I imagine he is looking at the day on day trend (i.e. today v yesterday, where numbers are up), rather than the week on week trend (today v same day last week, which is far better and does show a strong decline).

It will be interesting to see what happens to France now.  They were in the second wave and are still on a growing case trajectory.  So if they start falling in the next 2 weeks too, then Europe will probably avoid a very bad wave (assuming the Dutch, the Portugesse, the UK continue to improve).  At least this summer!  Thankfully, fatalities haven't escalated either so far.

Canada seems to have proved that COVID may not be as bad as feared.  There cases have never stopping declining.  I'm very impressed.  I wonder are other countries trying to figure out what happened there, since there is not a huge gap in vaccinations.

The US remains the exception too.  Given its vaccination rates.

[Zorral]

There are so many, some of whom post here regularly, who have been proven wrong about everything they've stated about the spread of Covid, who can get it, the hooey of herd immunity, and all the rest, so one pays no attention to anything These Sorts say, no matter how angry and abusive They want to be!  

OTOH I wish I had been always wrong with what I've feared and warned about spread and consequences.  But I haven't.  

[DaveSumm]

Every single week since forever in the UK, the tests are processed more rapidly midweek and so each week has its own arc; Mondays (reporting figures from Sunday) are always low. Tuesdays a little more, it peaks midweek, drops off at the weekend, rinse and repeat.

A Thursday being higher than a Wednesday isn’t news, nor a Wednesday higher than a Tuesday. That’s just the weekly arc. The fact that the arc itself is way down on the previous arc is what’s remarkable. And it is down, and remains down. 

Testing: down 14% in the last 7 days compared to the previous 7 days, cases down 37%. And of course there’s a chicken and egg element; yes, less testing picks up less Covid. But less Covid necessitates less testing, so you’d expect a fall in testing if cases drop.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Greetings from Alberta. For those who are unaware, In our last election we decided to vote out a reasonably competent NDP government and put the Conservative party in office. Our Premiere, Jason Kenney, has fucked up the provincial response to Covid at every step. Now this.

Out of 3.8 million 12+ Alberta residents, over 900k haven't gotten their first dose. Now they have announced that the next round of loosening restrictions will not include a requirement to isolate after a positive test. Cases in this province are low but rising. Oh, and they've also announced a 3% rollback of nurses salaries. Thank you for your service, suckers.

I don't know if this guys response reflects bravery or desperation, but I'm glad someone said it.

   

[The Anti-Targ]

5 hours ago, Leap said:

I am still not convinced that the CDC was wrong to say that people could take masks off if they were jabbed earlier this year, despite the summer surge. 

At the end of the day it's a balance between the extra cases/hospitalisations/deaths due to people not wearing masks now, and the extra cases/hosp/deaths that would have occurred if the CDC had not said that vaccinated could remove masks. I kind of think that the latter is feasibly likely to be higher. Not only because fewer people would have been vaccinated as a direct result of that carrot, but also because it's a relatively divisive point among the centre/left (rational people), and that division would only feed the right-wing misinformation campaign.

Unmasking fully vaccinated people was absolutely fine while the OG virus, and probably the Alpha variant, were the dominant strains. Infection and transmission rates among the vaccinated would be very low, so the vaxxed population would be a negligible contributor to ongoing infection. Delta changed all that because now the vaxxed population has become a non-trivial contributor to spreading the Delta variant, which is now pretty much the dominant strain in the USA I believe. So now it is appropriate for the CDC to change its public health recommendation back to mask-wearing, because the country is no longer dealing with the same virus that was the basis of the previous recommendation.

Who woulda thought public health measures need to be responsive to changing patterns of disease? That's just socialist, deep state, crazy talk!

[Week]

 

[kairparavel]

We're back to masks indoors in DC starting Saturday. However, Maryland will not be reinstating a mask requirement and no idea about Virginia. 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/local/dc-mask-mandate-covid/2021/07/29/7699c8e0-efe6-11eb-81d2-ffae0f931b8f_story.html

Three weeks ago we were informed by my agency that we would start Phase 4 reentry with a minimum of 2 days a week in the office. We've not removed the masking in agency facilities requirement but I'm curious if things will change for office return given the jump in cases.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Addendum to my post above:

In the full CTV interview, the doctor indicated that the nurses may be reaching their limit. There are also rumors of a nurses strike if Kenney tries to go through with the pay cut. 

[Xray the Enforcer]

14 hours ago, Week said:

 

Not picking on you, @Week because you're just the messenger. But I hate these kinds of Twitter threads because they are ableist nonsense. They basically function to tell most people to just pretend like shit's A-OK, when in fact Delta is WAY WORSE for people with chronic illness and that infections are running rampant.

And god help you if you get Long Covid from all of these "mild" breakthrough infections (yes, there's evidence you can get Long Covid even if you're vaccinated). I have multiple friends who are on 6, 12, or 15 months of disability because Long Covid makes it impossible for them to hold down a job. Some of them can't even leave the house because they're so sick. 

[Altherion]

I think the Twitter threads (and the articles they are based on) are trying to push people to get vaccines. It's true that the vaccines are not a perfect shield and it's also true that they work worse (or sometimes not at all) for the immunocompromised and certain other illnesses, but they're by far the most effective tool we currently have and they indirectly help even those whose bodies do not become immune... but only if almost everyone else gets them.

The US various states are actually running a natural experiment that provides pretty conclusive proof of this. Consider, for some of the most extreme examples, Vermont and Louisiana. Vermont has the highest vaccination rate in the country with 67.4% of the population fully vaccinated while Louisiana has one of the lowest with only 36.8% fully vaccinated. With the arrival of delta, Vermont's number of cases per day is now about 4 per 100,000 which is quite a bit higher than it was earlier, but more than 20 times lower than the 82 per 100,000 in Louisiana.

Thus, the articles and Twitter threads are not wrong to push the vaccines -- if everyone eligible were vaccinated, everyone (including the ineligible and those for whom the vaccine may or may not work) would be better off. Unfortunately, the people who refuse to get vaccines are not very likely to read the Washington Post or these Twitter threads.

[Week]

1 hour ago, Xray the Enforcer said:

Not picking on you, @Week because you're just the messenger. But I hate these kinds of Twitter threads because they are ableist nonsense. They basically function to tell most people to just pretend like shit's A-OK, when in fact Delta is WAY WORSE for people with chronic illness and that infections are running rampant.

And god help you if you get Long Covid from all of these "mild" breakthrough infections (yes, there's evidence you can get Long Covid even if you're vaccinated). I have multiple friends who are on 6, 12, or 15 months of disability because Long Covid makes it impossible for them to hold down a job. Some of them can't even leave the house because they're so sick. 

Yeah, I think that's totally fair. My reading of that thread is not one of reassurance but the importance of continued danger and collective caution. The obsession with death rate, then hospitalization, and now folks seem to be pretty OK with high case rates (and ongoing death, though a fraction of it's high) while demanding we fully reopen ... It's bleak. The lack of central leadership - present from the start, accountable, and honest - has put us in this insane situation where everyone seems to read the narrative and news that they choose. That will never provide any cover/protection/regard for anyone on the margins economically, socially, or really in any way.

[Heartofice]

2 hours ago, Xray the Enforcer said:

Not picking on you, @Week because you're just the messenger. But I hate these kinds of Twitter threads because they are ableist nonsense. They basically function to tell most people to just pretend like shit's A-OK, when in fact Delta is WAY WORSE for people with chronic illness and that infections are running rampant.

And god help you if you get Long Covid from all of these "mild" breakthrough infections (yes, there's evidence you can get Long Covid even if you're vaccinated). I have multiple friends who are on 6, 12, or 15 months of disability because Long Covid makes it impossible for them to hold down a job. Some of them can't even leave the house because they're so sick. 

No. 
 

That thread isn’t ‘ableist nonsense’ ( whatever that is)

 it’s a useful thread for anyone thinking that vaccines don’t work, and there are a lot of people who think that. They do work and have been doing a very good job at the thing they do best, preventing people dying and having to go to hospital.. as well as cutting transmission levels.

 

[Week]

2 hours ago, Heartofice said:

No. 
 

That thread isn’t ‘ableist nonsense’ ( whatever that is)

 it’s a useful thread for anyone thinking that vaccines don’t work, and there are a lot of people who think that. They do work and have been doing a very good job at the thing they do best, preventing people dying and having to go to hospital.. as well as cutting transmission levels.

 

How effective is the vaccine for those who medically cannot take it or do not have a strong immune response?

The increased danger of Delta to that group is ignored, as it often is, because we spend 95% of the discussion on two groups -- 1) Vaccine adopters 2) Anti-vaxxers -- which leaves a lot of people out of the discussion and public consciousness. That group is all the more reason for societal, collective caution and vaccinations.

[Maithanet]

Not to mention children, who are not and never have been safe from the dangers of COVID-19.  

[Week]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Not to mention children, who are not and never have been safe from the dangers of COVID-19.  

Wait until HoI tells you about the death rate -- the only possible relevant metric.

[A True Kaniggit]

So should the U.S. expect at least one more spike after this one when winter hits?

That’d be six spikes. These graphs look like a roller coaster. 
 

I’m assuming the U.S. death toll will be somewhere over 720,000 by March of next year. 
 

Edit: And this is assuming Delta remains the worst. There is always the chance a new deadly/infectious variant pops up with so many hosts. 

[karaddin]

@Xray the Enforcer it really is frustrating how incapable the general public seems to be of understanding complexity - it results in fishing line thin tight rope between "the vaccines have a major impact, its very important you get vaccinated" and "but that doesn't remove the threat of this disease, we need to continue managing those risks". Its also the reason people seem to laser focus on the death rate alone and completely ignore the risks of long term disability from it - both long covid and also permanent specific organ damage (such as lung or heart damage). The Australian media at least seems to have zero interest in serving the public good by trying to educate on this complexity, instead choosing to pile wood on the fire every time as that's what sells.

[Clueless Northman]

Honestly, the bottom-line is quite simple: Most people have been making insane sacrifices, and now we would ask them to keep doing them even though they've been vaccinated and we should soon be free of that shit, just because of assholes who don't want the vaccines and will then threaten the people who can't get vaccinated or whose vaccine immunity is too low?

We face a disease whose reproduction rate has only been topped by measles, chickenpox and mumps. At this point, any political leader that doesn't go for mandatory vaccination of at the very least everyone above 15 (and arguably above 12) is either a complete idiot or  traitorous scum, no matter the feared level of violence of anti-vaxxer loons. And if some people are still thick enough to resist, then round them up, jab the fuckers by force, and then release them. As far as I'm concerned, the only policies that can be justified from now on are either that or house arrests until they comply - pick your poison.

[Gorn]

8 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Honestly, the bottom-line is quite simple: Most people have been making insane sacrifices, and now we would ask them to keep doing them even though they've been vaccinated and we should soon be free of that shit, just because of assholes who don't want the vaccines and will then threaten the people who can't get vaccinated or whose vaccine immunity is too low?

We face a disease whose reproduction rate has only been topped by measles, chickenpox and mumps. At this point, any political leader that doesn't go for mandatory vaccination of at the very least everyone above 15 (and arguably above 12) is either a complete idiot or  traitorous scum, no matter the feared level of violence of anti-vaxxer loons. And if some people are still thick enough to resist, then round them up, jab the fuckers by force, and then release them. As far as I'm concerned, the only policies that can be justified from now on are either that or house arrests until they comply - pick your poison.

But doesn't CDC data about Delta variant make vaccine mandates officially pointless? Vaccinated people spread that variant just as much as the unvaccinated, they just don't get sick (mostly). I guess you could make an argument about protecting the hospital system from overloading, but that risk isn't currently present in any Western countries. Vaccinating is about protecting yourself, not about protecting others or doing a favor to the society.

And if a significant portion of population chooses to ignore medical evidence about risks and remain unvaccinated, keep in mind that a significant portion of population also smokes tobacco regularly, and that a not-insignificant portion of population uses hard drugs regularly. I disagree with their choice, but I don't go around knocking cigarettes out of people's hands.