US politics: Everything in moderation, including moderation

[DireWolfSpirit]

If we get normalized ties with Cuba again, can we finally find out what happened to the $2million Michael brought to Havana in GF2?

 

[Zorral]

12 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

If we get normalized ties with Cuba again, can we finally find out what happened to the $2million Michael brought to Havana in GF2?

It is known from the gitgo. Batista and his bagmen flew with it and many many many more millions to Miami when they fled the Revolution.  Just like Desi Arnaz's father helped to do it, getting on the plane that quick out of Santiago. 

[DMC]

22 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

But don't worry, the other day Dem organizers told Biden (and us) that they could out-organize voter suppression... No worries!

The point that campaign efforts tend to have a significantly larger impact on turnout - and especially turning out targeted voters, which after all is the main objective, than most voter suppression measures is pretty well-founded.  However, the fact Biden has still yet to put any type of public pressure on Manchin/Sinema for carving out some type of exception for HR1 - and at this point appears he never will - is quite disappointing.  Probably wouldn't have worked, but if you think it's important as it is, it'd be nice to at least try.

18 minutes ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

If we get normalized ties with Cuba again, can we finally find out what happened to the $2million Michael brought to Havana in GF2?

Think it's pretty clear Michael only had Fredo bring the money because he already suspected Fredo was the rat.  Michael had pretty supernatural clairvoyance on the whole situation, what with being convinced the Batista regime was gonna fall after witnessing one incident. 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

12 minutes ago, DMC said:

Think it's pretty clear Michael only had Fredo bring the money because he already suspected Fredo was the rat.  Michael had pretty supernatural clairvoyance on the whole situation, what with being convinced the Batista regime was gonna fall after witnessing one incident. 

And here my dumbass for years didn't get the implication that Michael was going to kill the entire Pentangeli clan if Frank testified.. 
 

[DMC]

17 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

And here my dumbass for years didn't get the implication that Michael was going to kill the entire Pentangeli clan if Frank testified.. 
 

It was between the brothers, Kay.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, DMC said:

It was between the brothers, Kay.

Next time you get in trouble around these parts a mod should force you to watch Part 3. 

[DMC]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

Next time you get in trouble around these parts a mod should force you to watch Part 3. 

I actually think Part III gets a bad rap, for the most part.  Well, I mean yeah, Sofia was horrible and it's not as good as the first two, but still.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

50 minutes ago, DMC said:

I actually think Part III gets a bad rap, for the most part.  Well, I mean yeah, Sofia was horrible and it's not as good as the first two, but still.

I just remember watching the original for the first time in a HS film class, being assigned to write a paper about the second one and being warned if we bought the trilogy to just throw away the third one. Still have those DVDs somewhere and I've never watched the third one.

[ThinkerX]

3 hours ago, Mindwalker said:

Manchin said in an interview with Tapper that he won't even do sth to the filibuster for voting rights.

But don't worry, the other day Dem organizers told Biden (and us) that they could out-organize voter suppression... No worries!

more and more, I find myself wondering here....

yes, the automatic assumption is that the republicans will at least attempt to use these 'voter ID/voter suppression laws against democratic candidates and districts.   

however, things are in flux at the moment.  demographic shifts brought on by COVID, among other things.  Plus, when it comes to shady electioneering, the republicans - including at least some of the ones pushing these laws - tend to take the lead (be more corrupt).

 

so....what is to stop the democrats from using these laws to challenge republican candidates even in safe districts or apparently clear republican victories?  Simply issue challenge after challenge, lawsuit after lawsuit, all in accord with these laws.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, ThinkerX said:

so....what is to stop the democrats from using these laws to challenge republican candidates even in safe districts or apparently clear republican victories?  Simply issue challenge after challenge, lawsuit after lawsuit, all in accord with these laws.

Because the states that are passing these laws are fully run (i.e. "trifecta) by Republicans.  Democrats want nothing to do with these laws.  In fact, in many states they're trying to pass laws that would do basically the exact opposite of what the Republicans are trying to do.

[Derfel Cadarn]

5 hours ago, DMC said:

I actually think Part III gets a bad rap, for the most part.  Well, I mean yeah, Sofia was horrible and it's not as good as the first two, but still.

My issue is more with Pacino. He seemed to be playing himself rather than Michael by that point.

[argonak]

On 7/31/2021 at 12:56 PM, Mindwalker said:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/07/gop-could-retake-the-house-in-2022-just-by-gerrymandering-four-southern-states/

GOP Could Retake the House in 2022 Just by Gerrymandering Four Southern States

A new study finds that Republicans could gain up to 13 seats in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

This is why we absolutely have to get rid of the damn electoral college.  As long as its in place we are fricking ripe for complete minority rule.  And minority rule generally leads to massive unrest and violent oppression.   Typically because once they take power, the minority becomes absolutely terrified of losing it (just like the GOP already is), because of how they think the majority will take revenge.

[horangi]

4 minutes ago, argonak said:

This is why we absolutely have to get rid of the damn electoral college.  As long as its in place we are fricking ripe for complete minority rule.  And minority rule generally leads to massive unrest and violent oppression.   Typically because once they take power, the minority becomes absolutely terrified of losing it (just like the GOP already is), because of how they think the majority will take revenge.

Just a reminder, the electoral college doesn't have much to do with a gerrymandered House.  *edit* but I do sympathize with the overarching concern about representation tied to land rather than population as a whole.

[argonak]

1 hour ago, horangi said:

Just a reminder, the electoral college doesn't have much to do with a gerrymandered House.  *edit* but I do sympathize with the overarching concern about representation tied to land rather than population as a whole.

Its related to the number of seats, which is almost as much a problem as the gerrymandering in my opinion.  My vote should not be worth 1/3 of a wyoming vote.  Its enraging.   

[Zorral]

14 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I just remember watching the original for the first time in a HS film class, being assigned to write a paper about the second one and being warned if we bought the trilogy to just throw away the third one. Still have those DVDs somewhere and I've never watched the third one.

Part three is an Italian tragic opera, so ya, it's different from the previous two, and has less dimensionality in some ways, as it goes for the Big Picture.  I like it a lot, more so all the time, except for Sophia, whose performance is ever more cringeworthy as time goes on.

[DMC]

Interesting article on tomorrow's primary between Shontel Brown and Nina Turner, which has become a proxy war between the institutionalist old guard of the congressional black caucus and the emergent left:

Quote

Shontel Brown — the chosen candidate of the caucus — would honor “the rich history” of the group, not be someone who fights against it while “trying to make a name for themselves,” CBC Chairwoman Joyce Beatty (D-Ohio) said while campaigning in the district Saturday with other top Black lawmakers. Brown wouldn’t be “a single solitary know-it-all,” said Rep. Bennie Thompson (D-Miss.). She wouldn’t “come in and try to break up that unity,” Rep. Gregory Meeks (D-N.Y.) added. She demonstrates “basic, good respect,” House Majority Whip Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.) concluded.

Left unsaid but implied with all the subtlety of a fire alarm: Nina Turner, Brown’s opponent in Tuesday's Democratic primary, would be her opposite.

Turner earned the ire of senior CBC members by, among other things, comparing voting for Joe Biden to eating a bowl of excrement and saying that Clyburn hasn't gone far enough to cash in on his early endorsement of the president to get policy wins.

 

[Maithanet]

1 hour ago, argonak said:

Its related to the number of seats, which is almost as much a problem as the gerrymandering in my opinion.  My vote should not be worth 1/3 of a wyoming vote.  Its enraging.   

Sort of.  I feel like the fact that low population states get slightly more weight in the electoral college is frustrating, but hardly the biggest problem.  A voter in Wyoming or Washington both have no bearing on the Presidency whatsoever because those states are not competitive.  Thus in every presidential election approximately 80% of the country is completely irrelevant.  A million additional votes in California matters less than a single voter in Wisconsin. 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

10 hours ago, Derfel Cadarn said:

My issue is more with Pacino. He seemed to be playing himself rather than Michael by that point.

It's called method acting. Pacino became Michael... or the other way round. Role, actor, actor, role. It's like chicken and egg.

[Fez]

On 7/31/2021 at 3:56 PM, Mindwalker said:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2021/07/gop-could-retake-the-house-in-2022-just-by-gerrymandering-four-southern-states/

GOP Could Retake the House in 2022 Just by Gerrymandering Four Southern States

A new study finds that Republicans could gain up to 13 seats in Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, and Texas.

Gerrymandering certainly presents a threat, but bear in mind that Democrats are likely to gain some seats from IL and NY, and may squeeze a few other seats out across other states too. The most likely net effect I've seen is that Republicans will likely end up +6 or +7 from redistricting. When the last 3 current House vacancies are filled, Democrats will likely have a 222-213 majority. If you flip 7 seats, Republicans have a 220-215 majority. However, that's so close that it'll just come down to how the election goes.

In 2020, Democrats won the House popular vote by 3.1%. There's been very little generic ballot polling for 2022 yet, but what I have seen is mostly in the +4 to +7 range for Democrats. With a few being better and a few being worse. At this point in the 2020 cycle, the generic ballot polling was around Democrats +7. So it's looking like the political environment hasn't exactly changed much; big surprise.

Point being, gerrymandering sucks, but it's hardly a death knell. The biggest threat remains electoral subversion by Republicans, overturning results (though I think they'll wait until 2024 to really push that). If that can be avoided, Democrats can certainly still keep the House next year.

[DMC]

53 minutes ago, Fez said:

Gerrymandering certainly presents a threat, but bear in mind that Democrats are likely to gain some seats from IL and NY, and may squeeze a few other seats out across other states too.

Whole heartedly agree with everything you said in this post.  Just wanna add the "gains" the GOP are seeing in the four states mentioned in the original link are inherently boosted by the fact those states are gaining four seats with reapportionment.  Plus it's taking their "maximum gerrymander" outcome of the analysis.  While they don't provide a methodology to evaluate, those estimates appear a bit extreme to me in Florida and Georgia.