NBA 2021 - 2022 BENched Simmons

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Luka is in the range of "every single penny possible," especially if Dallas is worried that he's not happy there. 

Not sure I'd love paying Young that much, but the Hawks don't really have a choice. 

[Maithanet]

I'm surprised that the Lakers didn't try to keep Caruso.  Apparently because of weird cap rules it wouldn't have counted against their luxury tax to keep him, and his deal with Chicago was fairly modest ($9 million a year).  Not that he's a great player, but I remember him being like the 5th or 6th best player on that Lakers championship squad.  Pesky defenders who can shoot the 3 are always valuable to contenders. 

Really, looking at the Lakers squad, it does not look like a championship group to me.  I'm a big fan of Lebron and I love watching Westbrook (even though I don't think his game is very effective anymore).  Maybe they'll surprise me, but as it is, I feel like they are really lacking perimeter defenders and shooters, which is going to make playing teams like LAC or GSW a nightmare.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

56 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

but as it is, I feel like they are really lacking perimeter defenders and shooters, which is going to make playing teams like LAC or GSW a nightmare.

As things now neither of these teams will challenge the Lakers. Kawhi still hasn’t signed and he’s likely to miss next season, and GS is not a threat with all these young players and Klay returning from two significant injuries. He’ll be able to catch and shoot into his 40’s, but the era of him being an elite defender are mostly likely over.

[Slurktan]

13 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

So its $30m per year for Paul and Lowry, and $23m for Conley. I guess those are all reasonable contracts, length aside? I'm sure the teams would have preferred to sign them for less, but if that's the market rate, alternatives won't be cheap even if they are any available. And taking someone else with a lower ceiling for a lower injury or falloff risk is probably less attractive when you're going championship or bust. 

Also, the Lakers aren't looking great. They have only Westbrook, LeBron, AD and Gasol under contract, are going for Howard, Ariza, Bazemore and Ellington, and the players currently on their roster that they can look to resign are also mostly aged veterans except for Horton-Tucker and even then, they might also bail for teams that can offer more like Caruso did. 

Edit - Trae Young is getting $41m per year and SGA $34m.

Edit 2 - I suppose Luka would also be in the $40m range?

I love Lowry but no way in hell would I be paying him 90 mill for three more years at age 35 when he has started to break down the previous two years.

[BigFatCoward]

Stephen getting paid as a thank you for his service, rather than what they think he will be like at 38? 

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

You can't expect Curry to still be elite by the last year or two of the contract, but if I'm the Warriors I make that offer and don't think twice about it.

[WarGalley]

DeRozan to the Bulls. Bulls and Heat look like the winners of free agency so far.

Losers? Blazers keep coming foremost to mind. They've done nothing. They're like the Pacers of the West.. neither being aggressive nor blowing it up and treading at the same level. The best remaining free agents are Kawhi (which is not going to happen) and John Collins. I'm not sure what kind of trade scenarios they can execute that would realistically make them better. Got to wonder what Damian Lillard is thinking right now..

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

51 minutes ago, WarGalley said:

DeRozan to the Bulls. Bulls and Heat look like the winners of free agency so far.

The Heat won the headlines, but I doubt much else. I don’t love any of those contracts due to when they expire and they’re still not better than the Nets, Bucks and Sixers.

[DMC]

Melo to the Lakers.  It's all over now!  LeBron, Howard, Melo, that's quite the superteam of dudes my age.

[Relic]

Nunn and Monk to LaL as well. Love that.

[Maithanet]

38 minutes ago, Relic said:

Nunn and Monk to LaL as well. Love that.

Yeah, those guys provide youth and shooting, two things the Lakers are very short on.  Even still, they are relying on Davis to cover up an awful lot of holes defensively.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

Why couldn't we have waited just a few more days to trade Ricky......

 

[Rhom]

:rofl: 

[Proudfeet]

11 hours ago, Slurktan said:

I love Lowry but no way in hell would I be paying him 90 mill for three more years at age 35 when he has started to break down the previous two years.

I think that teams would prefer paying them less and not guaranteeing future years, but there's an element of hoping for the best where teams ignore risks and go all in because its championship or bust. Even if they fail, they can console themselves that the safer alternatives have a lower ceiling and would have failed as well. Its the mentality of buying the lottery, maybe. You know that you are throwing money down the drain, but if you don't buy, you can't win.

__

Not sure when is a good time to comment on a team as the situation is fluid with all the roster movements, but I'd like to take a victory lap on the Sixers releasing George Hill. Maybe the Lakers could take him on a minimum. He'd certainly fit their current team profile.

[Maithanet]

11 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

I think that teams would prefer paying them less and not guaranteeing future years, but there's an element of hoping for the best where teams ignore risks and go all in because its championship or bust. Even if they fail, they can console themselves that the safer alternatives have a lower ceiling and would have failed as well. Its the mentality of buying the lottery, maybe. You know that you are throwing money down the drain, but if you don't buy, you can't win.

Lots of contracts get made knowing that the final year probably won't pay off.  You are just betting that the first year or two will exceed his salary.  Could Lowry exceed $30 million in production this coming year?  Yes.  It's a gamble even in year one, but Lowry is a bit better than Dragic, and the Heat feel like their window is now.  Personally I don't think it's likely this team could beat either the Nets or Bucks in a 7 game series, but I do think this vaults them ahead of the other Eastern teams like NYK, ATL and PHI.  And maybe they get lucky with injuries or something?  I heard somebody on TV say that "if you're one sprained ankle away from a championship, that's a pretty good place to be."  Now, I'm not sure that the Heat are even that close, but I applaud teams that actually take a shot at being great rather than playing it safe with their assets so they can remain pretty good. 

[Proudfeet]

7 hours ago, Maithanet said:

Lots of contracts get made knowing that the final year probably won't pay off.  You are just betting that the first year or two will exceed his salary.  Could Lowry exceed $30 million in production this coming year?  Yes.  It's a gamble even in year one, but Lowry is a bit better than Dragic, and the Heat feel like their window is now.  Personally I don't think it's likely this team could beat either the Nets or Bucks in a 7 game series, but I do think this vaults them ahead of the other Eastern teams like NYK, ATL and PHI.  And maybe they get lucky with injuries or something?  I heard somebody on TV say that "if you're one sprained ankle away from a championship, that's a pretty good place to be."  Now, I'm not sure that the Heat are even that close, but I applaud teams that actually take a shot at being great rather than playing it safe with their assets so they can remain pretty good. 

Yeah, teams probably have to go for it when they see a window open, and its not like it's a well stocked store where you can pick and choose. They have to go with whoever is available. Its just that even though we see where the team is coming from, its also hard to see it payoff, where the odds of the player meeting expectations even in the first year isn't that good, especially when it comes to injury and age. 

On the other end, you also have Boston with Hayward and Kemba, two seemingly safe free agents in that respect, and you get unlucky. Or Oladipo in Indiana. So, there's a built in risk regardless of what you do which might contribute to team executives being more open to risks.

[Maithanet]

9 hours ago, Proudfeet said:

Yeah, teams probably have to go for it when they see a window open, and its not like it's a well stocked store where you can pick and choose. They have to go with whoever is available. Its just that even though we see where the team is coming from, its also hard to see it payoff, where the odds of the player meeting expectations even in the first year isn't that good, especially when it comes to injury and age. 

On the other end, you also have Boston with Hayward and Kemba, two seemingly safe free agents in that respect, and you get unlucky. Or Oladipo in Indiana. So, there's a built in risk regardless of what you do which might contribute to team executives being more open to risks.

Yeah, IMO Boston the past 5 years is a bit of a cautionary tale.  They had a ton of young talent AND a ton of valuable draft picks, and everybody expected that at some point they would evaluate their young talent and say "these guys we need, trade the rest", and that along with the draft picks would allow them to get an elite player like Davis or Leonard or George or Harden.  But they didn't do that.  Instead they just waited and waited and now a lot of those draft picks didn't work out, and the team no longer has a ton of young talent, instead they have Tatum and Brown and not a whole lot else. 

Not that the last 5 years have been terrible for Boston fans, they won a lot of games and made several conference championships.  But at no point did they even get "one sprained ankle away" from the championship, and for a team as loaded as they were, that's not great. 

I would also say in favor of taking your shot and playing to win is that it does get good will with your fans.  The worst franchises are the ones who oscillate between being terrible, being mediocre and being fringe playoff teams.  If for a couple of years your fans can at least IMAGINE a championship (and I think Heat fans would be reasonable to hope for that), that helps you sell tickets not just this year, but for years to come. 

[Proudfeet]

To be fair to Boston, they did have terrible injury luck to Irving, Hayward and Kemba. But putting the expected ceiling of those teams aside, a lot of their moves were disastrous, especially last season. Maybe they can count on their draft picks coming good in time, but they absolutely whiffed their free agency and trades.

Of course, this is with the benefit of hindsight, and maybe some of the moves were better thought of at those points in time, but the current result is shocking considering the assets they once had.

[Maithanet]

16 minutes ago, Proudfeet said:

To be fair to Boston, they did have terrible injury luck to Irving, Hayward and Kemba. But putting the expected ceiling of those teams aside, a lot of their moves were disastrous, especially last season. Maybe they can count on their draft picks coming good in time, but they absolutely whiffed their free agency and trades.

Of course, this is with the benefit of hindsight, and maybe some of the moves were better thought of at those points in time, but the current result is shocking considering the assets they once had.

Irving seemed like a terrible fit regardless.  Maybe if he'd stayed healthy they could have worked it out, and if so, they certainly could have used him in the 2017 ECF that went to game 7 without him.  They still would have unquestionably lost to the Warriors.

Kemba and Hayward was indeed unfortunate.  I'm not sure even without any injuries there was ever a year I'd favor the Celtics, although perhaps with a healthy team they could have been "one sprained ankle away". 

[Proudfeet]

1 minute ago, Maithanet said:

Irving seemed like a terrible fit regardless.  Maybe if he'd stayed healthy they could have worked it out, and if so, they certainly could have used him in the 2017 ECF that went to game 7 without him.  They still would have unquestionably lost to the Warriors.

Kemba and Hayward was indeed unfortunate.  I'm not sure even without any injuries there was ever a year I'd favor the Celtics, although perhaps with a healthy team they could have been "one sprained ankle away". 

Not disagreeing, but I didn't think Toronto would have made it that year they won either. I've always felt that it was between the Bucks and Sixers after LeBron left. 

Still, its not very interesting doing a post mortem. Or discussing how much a player should be worth. I wonder when it will be safe to comment on the current teams without the risk of the team making a move to address that very issue. I was kind of alarmed that the Jazz salary dumped Favors, but they then added Whiteside and Paschall who hopefully are adequate. Whiteside seemed to have that one good year in Miami and disappeared.