Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
Kierria

The Pentoshi Syndicate

Recommended Posts

On 8/6/2021 at 11:32 PM, Nevets said:

I think the iron coin has the same purpose in Braavos that copper coins have in Westeros and elsewhere.  Low-denomination coins used for everyday purchases and making change.  You can probably exchange them for silver, or even gold if you get enough of them, but I doubt that they are a huge part of the money supply.  The real money is going to be gold and silver, just like everywhere else.

I doubt that the Iron Bank's existence is going to be threatened by Stannis or even the Crown's non-payment.  They are giving Stannis a line of credit, not actual cash in hand, so if he dies or falls flat on his face, they can simply stop paying.  In any event, I seriously doubt it is enough to seriously inconvenience htem.  As to the Crown's debt, it sounds large, but I doubt that the Iron Bank would be killed by its non-payment.  The Faith wrote off at least as much without blinking an eye.  If the Crown did renege, as opposed to simply delaying payment, as they are doing now, it would mean that they would likely find it difficult or impossible to get any new loans.  From anybody.

Other events are indeed happening in Planetos.  However, ASOIAF (the story we are reading) is about Westeros and its people.  Even then, only a few are really main characters.  Littlefinger is not one of them.  He is a secondary character,, there to support other characters and help move their stories along.  The books are not about him.

There is copper (and gold and silver) in Braavos too. The iron coin is a way for the bank to accumulate the more precious metals while allowing commoners to use their proxy. This is the purpose of today's paper currency; it allows central banks to keep what is really valuable while supporting the economy with credit. It works as long as people have trust that the money is sound. Once that trust is gone, however . . .

Stannis is taking that line of credit to buy all the sellswords he can find. The bank will pay hard gold, not credit, to the companies he hires, depleting their stores even more. At the same time, incomes are about to drop due to the disruption of the slave trade. We can already see that the bank is getting nervous in several ways:

First, they have called in loans all across Westeros. While some may see this as a power tactic against the crown, if it is it is doomed to fail. That crown already can't (not won't, can't) pay back the loan because the treasury is empty. So how is disrupting the kingdom's economy even further supposed to replenish that treasury? Any time a bank starts calling in functional loans it is a sign of trouble. It means it is sacrificing future profits because it needs cash now.

Second, there is the loan to the NW. When Jon first broaches this to Tycho, the answer is a hard no -- no way, now how, not possible. The wealthiest, most powerful bank in the world and it can't even offer up a few thousand for oats and barley to keep a bunch of wildlings fed over the winter? After negotiating, no became yes, and later we learn how this was done: Jon offered up the wildling trinkets, meager as they are, as collateral. This is how desperate the bank is for any cash infusion. I suspect the balance will be paid in wood, which the watch has in abundance but is rare and valuable in Braavos.

And third, we must consider the fact that the Iron Throne's financial requirements are far greater than any of the Essosian city states, save maybe Volantis. So this loan is probably quite substantial. But unlike the free cities, not just anyone can become king. You need someone with a legitimate claim, or else you have to conquer at least six of the seven kingdoms, something it took Aegon the Conqueror four years to do, and he had dragons. So if Stannis dies without spending all the gold, fine, but now they are without a champion to take the throne. Meanwhile, Illyrio's boy, Aegon, is knocking at the door.

Yes, other events are happening all over the world. Most of the POVs we see are focused on the Iron Throne. But that doesn't mean everyone is. Illyrio has his own fish to fry, in Braavos. He most certainly does not want to become Aegon's servant.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Who said anything about Varys? LF is working with Illyrio to bring down the bank while Varys is working with Illyrio to put Aegon on the throne. I can imagine that LF knows about Illyrio and Varys, but there's no reason why Varys should need to know about Illyrio and LF.

And if we look at the conversation in the dragon room, this is the only scenario that makes sense. Here is Varys, who has his spies all over the kingdom, knows the secrets of all the realm's high and mighty, knows about the attempt on Bran, knows about Ned and the book, knows about the Margaery plot . . .  And yet when it comes the Petyr, "the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing." And this is after they both recognize that he is the one mucking with the finances of the realm they hope to usurp and that he is directly responsible for events happening too quickly for Illyrio's liking. And yet Illyrio does not bat an eye over any of this, and there was no urgency after that to correct this serious blind spot in their intelligence-gathering. So maybe Illyrio already knows exactly what game Littlefinger is playing?

If Petyr did prompt Joff to execute Ned (which is what I think happened, but it is not certain), he didn't do it to propel war but to cover his own hide. He has to remove Ned before he starts talking about their little conversation just before Ned tried to seize the throne, the one where LF advised him to support Joffrey for now and then depose him later at a more suitable time. Before this, if you'll recall, it was LF who talked the small council out of sending a Faceless Man after Dany, correctly predicting that whoever did try to kill her will likely get caught, putting the Dothraki on their guard. It actually went one better than that and prompted Drogo to invade Westeros now rather than later, exactly like Illyrio wanted.

I don't know. As a premise I think this is possible but there is a few things that just don't sit quite right with me. one of the things that makes LF dangerous is that he purposely makes moves that make no sense to people, and because his motives are unclear based on his actions, what he is going to do next is a mystery. that is part of his survival strategy and what makes it difficult for Varys to know what he is doing. I think that is more the source of that quote you mentioned. And I don't know If ilyrio really has any incentive to not let Varys in on the scheme. he's a spy master and could have found out despite, which could have hurt the relationship between the plotters. 

LF is in a good position to build a bank of Westeros if the iron bank collapses as you say but I always figured his motives to be more towards sovereign control. like build up Sansa and then have a child on her in secret so his own kid rules swaths of Westeros.

I suppose that explains why neither of the two took the other out of the game though. 

You are right though. executing ned was more to cover his own tracks. though I do think he was partial to war. chaos is a ladder after all.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

There is copper (and gold and silver) in Braavos too. The iron coin is a way for the bank to accumulate the more precious metals while allowing commoners to use their proxy. This is the purpose of today's paper currency; it allows central banks to keep what is really valuable while supporting the economy with credit. It works as long as people have trust that the money is sound. Once that trust is gone, however .

Do you have proof that the iron coin is a proxy currency.  Because I see no reason that it should be, or be accepted asd such.  Paper money is, or was used, in place of silver and gold because it is a lot more convenient to carry bits of paper than bits of metal around.  Iron defeats the purpose.  And modern currency is backed by nothing except the economy of whoever issues it.  It is fiat money.

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

First, they have called in loans all across Westeros. While some may see this as a power tactic against the crown, if it is it is doomed to fail. That crown already can't (not won't, can't) pay back the loan because the treasury is empty. So how is disrupting the kingdom's economy even further supposed to replenish that treasury? Any time a bank starts calling in functional loans it is a sign of trouble. It means it is sacrificing future profits because it needs cash now.

Given the timing, I have no doubt that the calling in of loans is a pressure tactic.  The Crown may or may not have cash in the treasury; it certainly has sources of revenue and income.  Cersei simply prefers to use the money on other things besides servicing debt, like building a navy for Aurane Waters.  

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Second, there is the loan to the NW. When Jon first broaches this to Tycho, the answer is a hard no -- no way, now how, not possible. The wealthiest, most powerful bank in the world and it can't even offer up a few thousand for oats and barley to keep a bunch of wildlings fed over the winter? After negotiating, no became yes, and later we learn how this was done: Jon offered up the wildling trinkets, meager as they are, as collateral. This is how desperate the bank is for any cash infusion. I suspect the balance will be paid in wood, which the watch has in abundance but is rare and valuable in Braavos.

Nestoris is being asked to loan money to buy food, and maybe other stuff, for an unknown number of people for an unknown amount of time.  It is an open-ended commitment, with no realistic possibility of being paid back, at least in gold or silver.  Of course he said no.  Banks aren't in the habit of extending loans to creditors with no means of repayment.  The fact is, they reached an agreement.  Timber was probably part of it, along with other things, like help getting to Stannis.

 

5 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Who said anything about Varys? LF is working with Illyrio to bring down the bank while Varys is working with Illyrio to put Aegon on the throne. I can imagine that LF knows about Illyrio and Varys, but there's no reason why Varys should need to know about Illyrio and LF.

And if we look at the conversation in the dragon room, this is the only scenario that makes sense. Here is Varys, who has his spies all over the kingdom, knows the secrets of all the realm's high and mighty, knows about the attempt on Bran, knows about Ned and the book, knows about the Margaery plot . . .  And yet when it comes the Petyr, "the gods only know what game Littlefinger is playing." And this is after they both recognize that he is the one mucking with the finances of the realm they hope to usurp and that he is directly responsible for events happening too quickly for Illyrio's liking. And yet Illyrio does not bat an eye over any of this, and there was no urgency after that to correct this serious blind spot in their intelligence-gathering. So maybe Illyrio already knows exactly what game Littlefinger is playing?

If Petyr did prompt Joff to execute Ned (which is what I think happened, but it is not certain), he didn't do it to propel war but to cover his own hide. He has to remove Ned before he starts talking about their little conversation just before Ned tried to seize the throne, the one where LF advised him to support Joffrey for now and then depose him later at a more suitable time. Before this, if you'll recall, it was LF who talked the small council out of sending a Faceless Man after Dany, correctly predicting that whoever did try to kill her will likely get caught, putting the Dothraki on their guard. It actually went one better than that and prompted Drogo to invade Westeros now rather than later, exactly like Illyrio wanted.

Of course Varys doesn't know what Littlefinger is up to.  He may know what Littlefinger is doing, but does not know why he is doing them, or what his plans or objectives are.   Those secrets are locked in Littlefinger's brain, where they are inaccessible.  Illyrio knows this, which is why he doesn't mind.  Varys may pretend he is omniscient, but he isn't, and I suspect that Illyrio is well aware of this fact.

Littlefinger doesn't care about what Ned might say about the conversation.  Littlefinger advised Ned to maintain the status quo; Freeze Stannis out, put Joffrey on the throne as a figurehead, with Ned and Cersei as co-regents.  Or something along those lines.  Big fucking deal.  He knows Ned won't take the offer, and if he did, it wouldn't last.  Both Ned and Cersei would end up plotting against each other, and it would fall apart quickly.  Besides, who would Ned tell and why?  Nobody, and they wouldn't care if he did.

He arranged Ned's execution so as to ensure that the fighting between the Starks and Lannisters would continue.  With Ned alive, there was a possibility of a settlement of some sort, especially with Renly and Stannis waiting in the wings to cause trouble.   Any possibility of that happening died when Ned did, which was what Littlefinger wanted.

 

By the way, do you have any evidence that Littlefinger is conspiring with Illyrio, or anybody else, to bring down the Iron Bank, or Braavos, or anything else along those lines.  Because I sure haven't seen anything.  And no, the possibility that he siphoned a lot of money as Master of Coin only establishes that he may have lots of money.  It says nothing about what he plans to do with it.

Edited by Nevets

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I don't know. As a premise I think this is possible but there is a few things that just don't sit quite right with me. one of the things that makes LF dangerous is that he purposely makes moves that make no sense to people, and because his motives are unclear based on his actions, what he is going to do next is a mystery. that is part of his survival strategy and what makes it difficult for Varys to know what he is doing. I think that is more the source of that quote you mentioned. And I don't know If ilyrio really has any incentive to not let Varys in on the scheme. he's a spy master and could have found out despite, which could have hurt the relationship between the plotters. 

LF is in a good position to build a bank of Westeros if the iron bank collapses as you say but I always figured his motives to be more towards sovereign control. like build up Sansa and then have a child on her in secret so his own kid rules swaths of Westeros.

I suppose that explains why neither of the two took the other out of the game though. 

You are right though. executing ned was more to cover his own tracks. though I do think he was partial to war. chaos is a ladder after all.

Well, we'll see how it goes. I think the bank will fall and Illyrio and Petyr are in on it.

One thing I haven't mentioned yet is the very odd backstory that supposedly explains Petyr's rise to power. He shows up at Gulltown a skinny, scrawny kid with no money, no protection, no men-at-arms, no nothing, to begin his minor sinecure as a junior customers inspector, and he immediately starts out-collecting all the other experienced collectors by a significant amount. Well, that money has to come from somewhere. So either Petyr is collecting more than is rightfully owed, or he is collecting the proper amount and all the other collectors are either crooked, incompetent or both. Either way, he is upsetting the highly lucrative environment at the port -- and ports are dangerous places run by shady people who don't like outsiders who come in and take their money from them. So this should have gotten him a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea . . . unless, he is being bankrolled by someone to make it seem he is a financial genius.

But as I said, the truth will out and all of Petyr's motives will become clear in time.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 hours ago, Nevets said:

Do you have proof that the iron coin is a proxy currency.  Because I see no reason that it should be, or be accepted asd such.  Paper money is, or was used, in place of silver and gold because it is a lot more convenient to carry bits of paper than bits of metal around.  Iron defeats the purpose.  And modern currency is backed by nothing except the economy of whoever issues it.  It is fiat money.

Given the timing, I have no doubt that the calling in of loans is a pressure tactic.  The Crown may or may not have cash in the treasury; it certainly has sources of revenue and income.  Cersei simply prefers to use the money on other things besides servicing debt, like building a navy for Aurane Waters.  

Nestoris is being asked to loan money to buy food, and maybe other stuff, for an unknown number of people for an unknown amount of time.  It is an open-ended commitment, with no realistic possibility of being paid back, at least in gold or silver.  Of course he said no.  Banks aren't in the habit of extending loans to creditors with no means of repayment.  The fact is, they reached an agreement.  Timber was probably part of it, along with other things, like help getting to Stannis.

 

Of course Varys doesn't know what Littlefinger is up to.  He may know what Littlefinger is doing, but does not know why he is doing them, or what his plans or objectives are.   Those secrets are locked in Littlefinger's brain, where they are inaccessible.  Illyrio knows this, which is why he doesn't mind.  Varys may pretend he is omniscient, but he isn't, and I suspect that Illyrio is well aware of this fact.

Littlefinger doesn't care about what Ned might say about the conversation.  Littlefinger advised Ned to maintain the status quo; Freeze Stannis out, put Joffrey on the throne as a figurehead, with Ned and Cersei as co-regents.  Or something along those lines.  Big fucking deal.  He knows Ned won't take the offer, and if he did, it wouldn't last.  Both Ned and Cersei would end up plotting against each other, and it would fall apart quickly.  Besides, who would Ned tell and why?  Nobody, and they wouldn't care if he did.

He arranged Ned's execution so as to ensure that the fighting between the Starks and Lannisters would continue.  With Ned alive, there was a possibility of a settlement of some sort, especially with Renly and Stannis waiting in the wings to cause trouble.   Any possibility of that happening died when Ned did, which was what Littlefinger wanted.

 

By the way, do you have any evidence that Littlefinger is conspiring with Illyrio, or anybody else, to bring down the Iron Bank, or Braavos, or anything else along those lines.  Because I sure haven't seen anything.  And no, the possibility that he siphoned a lot of money as Master of Coin only establishes that he may have lots of money.  It says nothing about what he plans to do with it.

Of course the iron coin is a proxy currency. Iron is about the most worthless metal on the planet, worth even less than copper. It's everywhere. If it had any value then the ironmen would be wealthy. The only way people would use it for commerce is if someone with valuable metals promised to exchange it, aka fiat money. Paper, which comes from wood, which is very expensive in Braavos, is more valuable than iron in this society.

The crown's resources, revenue and income will only be diminished when the fallout from the loan recalls happens. This can only depress economic activity, which can only dampen revenues to the crown even further. If they think they are going to get their money back by doing this they are greatly mistaken. The treasury is empty now, as per the new MoC. Pulling money out of the Westerosi economy will only make things worse. But it does bring cash back to the bank's coffers now, which would not be a good business move unless the bank needs money now. This is a telltale sign that a bank is in trouble.

A few hundred gold will buy enough grain and barley and neeps and onions, plus the dried fish and mussels and clams that Braavos has in abundance, to fill several ship holds -- enough to keep them alive for a year or more. And the length of the loan is irrelevant. In fact, the longer it goes the better for the bank because they can refill those ships with wood, which the Watch has in virtually limitless supply, that sells for a thousand times the wheat and other foodstuffs. So they can only profit from this arrangement the longer it lasts. But the key is the wealth they get right now from the wildling treasures. It's not a lot, but this is how desperate the bank is.

Getting help to Stannis had nothing to do with the NW deal. Tycho does not even reach Stannis until long after this agreement is reached. At the time of the NW deal, for all Tycho knows Stannis could have been dead.

Right. Varys does not know what LF is up to. Why? He knows everything about everybody else in the kingdom. That's his job. But the key takeaway here is not that Varys does not know, but that Illyrio does not care that Varys does not know, even though both of them know he is the one responsible for their plans going awry. You'd think a smart man like Ilyrio would know a serious blind spot when he sees one, but no, no response, and LF continues to keep Varys completely in the dark right up to the present day, and Illyrio could care less.

Littlefinger advised Ned to support Joffrey for now and then out him and depose him at a more convenient time:

Quote

"Joffrey is but twelve, and Robert gave you the regency, my lord. You are the Hand of the King and Protector of the Realm. The power is yours, Lord Stark. All you need do is reach out and take it. Make your peace with the Lannisters. Release the Imp. Wed Joffrey to your Sansa. Wed your younger girl to Prince Tommen, and your heir to Myrcella. It will be four years before Joffrey comes of age. By then he will look to you as a second father, and if not, well . . . four years is a good long while, my lord. Long enough to dispose of Lord Stannis. Then, should Joffrey prove troublesome, we can reveal his little secret and put Renly on the throne."

. . .

"Lord Baelish, what you suggest is treason."

"Only if we lose."

Imagine the blowback to Petyr if word of this conversation were to reach Cersei, or Joffrey? And you don't think he cares about keeping his head on his shoulders? Plus, if you'll note, here is Petyr trying to finagle the delay that Illyrio needs.

Here is what I look at when I see Illyrio behind Littlefinger:

Petyr shows up in Gulltown a skinny, scrawny minor lordling with little money, even less status, no soldiers, no men-at arms, no nothing, to begin his minor sinecure as the junior-most customs official at the port. And he immediately starts out-collecting the more experienced senior officers, by a lot. The thing is, that money had to come from somewhere. So either Petyr is taking more than is rightfully owed, or he is taking the right amount and all the other collectors are incompetent, crooked, or both. Either way, this should have gotten him a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. Ports are very dangerous places, full of thugs and press gangs and mobsters who don't take kindly to outsiders who take their money. The only way Petyr could have pulled this off is if he had a benefactor who could provide the gold to increase his haul and then bribe or remove anyone who dared asked questions about it.

Then rinse and repeat in Kings Landing until Petyr, with Lysa's help, is elevated to a position where he can use the Iron Bank's greed and gold against it.

The rest of the evidence is as I explained: the conversation in the Dragon Room, the bank's proxy currency, the loans being called in, the NW loan . . . There is more than enough here to conclude that something is up.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Posted (edited)
9 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Of course the iron coin is a proxy currency. Iron is about the most worthless metal on the planet, worth even less than copper. It's everywhere. If it had any value then the ironmen would be wealthy. The only way people would use it for commerce is if someone with valuable metals promised to exchange it, aka fiat money. Paper, which comes from wood, which is very expensive in Braavos, is more valuable than iron in this society.

The crown's resources, revenue and income will only be diminished when the fallout from the loan recalls happens. This can only depress economic activity, which can only dampen revenues to the crown even further. If they think they are going to get their money back by doing this they are greatly mistaken. The treasury is empty now, as per the new MoC. Pulling money out of the Westerosi economy will only make things worse. But it does bring cash back to the bank's coffers now, which would not be a good business move unless the bank needs money now. This is a telltale sign that a bank is in trouble.

A few hundred gold will buy enough grain and barley and neeps and onions, plus the dried fish and mussels and clams that Braavos has in abundance, to fill several ship holds -- enough to keep them alive for a year or more. And the length of the loan is irrelevant. In fact, the longer it goes the better for the bank because they can refill those ships with wood, which the Watch has in virtually limitless supply, that sells for a thousand times the wheat and other foodstuffs. So they can only profit from this arrangement the longer it lasts. But the key is the wealth they get right now from the wildling treasures. It's not a lot, but this is how desperate the bank is.

Getting help to Stannis had nothing to do with the NW deal. Tycho does not even reach Stannis until long after this agreement is reached. At the time of the NW deal, for all Tycho knows Stannis could have been dead.

Right. Varys does not know what LF is up to. Why? He knows everything about everybody else in the kingdom. That's his job. But the key takeaway here is not that Varys does not know, but that Illyrio does not care that Varys does not know, even though both of them know he is the one responsible for their plans going awry. You'd think a smart man like Ilyrio would know a serious blind spot when he sees one, but no, no response, and LF continues to keep Varys completely in the dark right up to the present day, and Illyrio could care less.

Littlefinger advised Ned to support Joffrey for now and then out him and depose him at a more convenient time:

Imagine the blowback to Petyr if word of this conversation were to reach Cersei, or Joffrey? And you don't think he cares about keeping his head on his shoulders? Plus, if you'll note, here is Petyr trying to finagle the delay that Illyrio needs.

Here is what I look at when I see Illyrio behind Littlefinger:

Petyr shows up in Gulltown a skinny, scrawny minor lordling with little money, even less status, no soldiers, no men-at arms, no nothing, to begin his minor sinecure as the junior-most customs official at the port. And he immediately starts out-collecting the more experienced senior officers, by a lot. The thing is, that money had to come from somewhere. So either Petyr is taking more than is rightfully owed, or he is taking the right amount and all the other collectors are incompetent, crooked, or both. Either way, this should have gotten him a one-way ticket to the bottom of the Narrow Sea. Ports are very dangerous places, full of thugs and press gangs and mobsters who don't take kindly to outsiders who take their money. The only way Petyr could have pulled this off is if he had a benefactor who could provide the gold to increase his haul and then bribe or remove anyone who dared asked questions about it.

Then rinse and repeat in Kings Landing until Petyr, with Lysa's help, is elevated to a position where he can use the Iron Bank's greed and gold against it.

The rest of the evidence is as I explained: the conversation in the Dragon Room, the bank's proxy currency, the loans being called in, the NW loan . . . There is more than enough here to conclude that something is up.

 

The iron coin is a minor coin.  Of course it has no intrinsic value.  Its value is that it can be exchanged for silver.  It is probably worth 1/10 of a silver coin or something like that.   Merchants take it because they can get silver for a bunch or buy stuff with it.  Their total value, though, is not enough to cause problems.

Tycho doesn't agree to the loan until he sees a means of repayment.  And I don't think he would have agreed if Jon didn't offer help getting to Stannis.   That's his purpose there in the first place, and he's going to need help accomplishing it.

Littlefinger obviously had a patron in Gulltown.  That's what a sinecure is: a cushy job given by someone with influence.   Who, I don't know.  Probably someone interested in Increasing the tax revenues, in which case he would be well protected.  That's assuming GRRM even thought about it.  He may have pulled it all out of thin air.  He does that a lot. 

If you assume that this story is an intricately constructed world without inconsistencies, you are going to find yourself led astray and going down rabbit holes in search of supposed clues. 

The events and clues you present to support your theory have alternate explanations that make at least as much sense, usually more sense.  Given that they would all essentially have to be correct for it to work, I doubt it is true.

Littlefinger is clearly up to something.  To figure out what, you should examine his interests.   I believe he has three:  1) increase his power and influence in Westeros.  2) maintain and increase his wealth.  3) have Sansa as his protégé and collaborator on the one hand, and his lover and future wife on the other.  Braavos, the Iron Bank, and Illyrio aren't on the list.  He has no interests there.

Edited by Nevets

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, Nevets said:

The iron coin is a minor coin.  Of course it has no intrinsic value.  Its value is that it can be exchanged for silver.  It is probably worth 1/10 of a silver coin or something like that.   Merchants take it because they can get silver for a bunch or buy stuff with it.  Their total value, though, is not enough to cause problems.

Tycho doesn't agree to the loan until he sees a means of repayment.  And I don't think he would have agreed if Jon didn't offer help getting to Stannis.   That's his purpose there in the first place, and he's going to need help accomplishing it.

Littlefinger obviously had a patron in Gulltown.  That's what a sinecure is: a cushy job given by someone with influence.   Who, I don't know.  Probably someone interested in Increasing the tax revenues, in which case he would be well protected.  That's assuming GRRM even thought about it.  He may have pulled it all out of thin air.  He does that a lot. 

If you assume that this story is an intricately constructed world without inconsistencies, you are going to find yourself led astray and going down rabbit holes in search of supposed clues. 

The events and clues you present to support your theory have alternate explanations that make at least as much sense, usually more sense.  Given that they would all essentially have to be correct for it to work, I doubt it is true.

Littlefinger is clearly up to something.  To figure out what, you should examine his interests.   I believe he has three:  1) increase his power and influence in Westeros.  2) maintain and increase his wealth.  3) have Sansa as his protégé and collaborator on the one hand, and his lover and future wife on the other.  Braavos, the Iron Bank, and Illyrio aren't on the list.  He has no interests there.

Who knows what the exchange rate is. It doesn't really matter. If the bank goes under, thousands upon thousands of people lose their life savings and the currency that underpins the Braavosi economy is no longer valid. That means the only wealth that people have is whatever coinage they happen to possess when the hammer falls, which isn't much for the vast portion of the population. The result is chaos as prices swing from hyper-inflation to hyper deflation, with all the attendant social disruption that afflicts a population suddenly deprived of their buying power. At the same time, the government has no way to pay its soldiers, sailors, merchant mariners, let alone feed them, clothe them, arm them . . .. It will be helpless when Pentos says "Hey, remember that treaty? We're not going to abide by it anymore."

The collapse of the IB will be just as severe, if not more so, than the collapse of the Rogare Bank, which sent two ecnomies that we know of, Lys and Westeros, into tailspins.

The means of repayment are right there in front of Tycho. All he has to do is look at all the trees. And still his initial answer was no. The deal was not struck until Jon offered up the collateral, which the bank desperately needs or else it probably wouldn't have bothered with this piddly little loan. He didn't need Jon to tell him where Stannis went. Everybody at CB knows where he went. If Jon had Tycho over such a barrel, then the deal would have been struck without the collateral, and then Tycho would have cancelled it the moment Jon revealed where Stannis had gone.

Lysa got him Petyr job, but there is no way she can fund this little scheme. It would take someone with very deep pockets to pull this off, and sorry, but simply putting more money in the Arryn pockets is not a good enough reason to put up tens if not hundreds of thousands in gold.

Martin doesn't know, Martin didn't think it through, Martin is a lazy writer: the death rattle of many a theory. Martin knows full well what he's doing.

Of course, there are always alternate explanations for everything. This one, though, provides the most plausible explanation as to what a number of people are doing in the story, and why.

I agree, LF has no interest in Braavos (that we know of, anyway). He wants Westeros, and Sansa. Which is why he is doing this. Illyrio wants Braavos but has no interest in Westeros. This is why it's a perfect partnership: each can rely on the other to achieve their own objectives, and there is no reason why they would need to double-cross each other.

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

It will be helpless when Pentos says "Hey, remember that treaty? We're not going to abide by it anymore."

Main problem is that Pentos is so weak that Braavos could solve their problems by invading and sacking Pentos. Or ruling Sealord could use idea about short victorious war like so many other leaders had done to solve their own political problems. So ruler of B could go full Trump mode and start War Against Slavery and use that as an excuse to silence anyone who causes problems in Braavos. After all anyone who even seems not to support that crusade is supporter of slavery and so basically rapid dog who has to be eliminated for greater good.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Main problem is that Pentos is so weak that Braavos could solve their problems by invading and sacking Pentos. Or ruling Sealord could use idea about short victorious war like so many other leaders had done to solve their own political problems. So ruler of B could go full Trump mode and start War Against Slavery and use that as an excuse to silence anyone who causes problems in Braavos. After all anyone who even seems not to support that crusade is supporter of slavery and so basically rapid dog who has to be eliminated for greater good.

Not if their economy is in the toilet. The sealord will have all he can handle with in the social disturbance at home, and very little cash to pay soldiers, sailors, or feed them, house them, arm them . . .  Waging war cost money. 

And there are no slaves in Pentos, so what pretext would he use to suddenly invade?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Not if their economy is in the toilet. The sealord will have all he can handle with in the social disturbance at home, and very little cash to pay soldiers, sailors, or feed them, house them, arm them . . .  Waging war cost money. 

And there are no slaves in Pentos, so what pretext would he use to suddenly invade?

Pentos is huge and rich city. So anyone who raids it will become very rich. For instance when Swedish army sacked half of city of Prague 1648 just cut for the crown (that actually came to Stockholm) of those spoils of war was larger than national tax revenues of state of Sweden about 10 years. And during that time kingdom of Sweden had taken part of 30 Years War already 18 years (since 1630) so most soldiers in that army were mercenaries instead of Swedes and naturally made sure that they got their own cuts b4 agents of Swedish crown.

Pentos is much larger than Prague was 1648 so profits of sacking that city should be huge enough to lure many greedy people who would want their own piece of that tasty cake. So financing that operation should not be a problem. In fact just promise to make any survivor of that army rich should be enough to lure private "businessmen" with their own armies and navies and many other loose mercs and sellsails for that operation.

Actually potential profits of raiding Pentos would be so huge that any facts speakings against that would be meaningless. Or when the money talks the truth does not really matter.

So I assume that if Braavos really would have massive social disturbances their ruling elite would try to safe their own asses by invading Pentos.  

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
22 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Pentos is huge and rich city. So anyone who raids it will become very rich. For instance when Swedish army sacked half of city of Prague 1648 just cut for the crown (that actually came to Stockholm) of those spoils of war was larger than national tax revenues of state of Sweden about 10 years. And during that time kingdom of Sweden had taken part of 30 Years War already 18 years (since 1630) so most soldiers in that army were mercenaries instead of Swedes and naturally made sure that they got their own cuts b4 agents of Swedish crown.

Pentos is much larger than Prague was 1648 so profits of sacking that city should be huge enough to lure many greedy people who would want their own piece of that tasty cake. So financing that operation should not be a problem. In fact just promise to make any survivor of that army rich should be enough to lure private "businessmen" with their own armies and navies and many other loose mercs and sellsails for that operation.

Actually potential profits of raiding Pentos would be so huge that any facts speakings against that would be meaningless. Or when the money talks the truth does not really matter.

So I assume that if Braavos really would have massive social disturbances their ruling elite would try to safe their own asses by invading Pentos.  

No, cities that undergo financial meltdown do not invade other cities. Anyone who had any money invested in the IB is walking away with coppers on the gold coin. And the commoners are destitute because the iron coin is worthless. If anything, the wealthy will flee to Pentos with what money they have, not to sack it but to hide there. Braavos will be in no position to attack anyone. No "private businessman" in Braavos will have the means to hire sellswords and sails to attack Pentos. In fact, it would be the exact opposite: the Pentoshi will get the sellswords because they have the money to pay. Taking Pentos is an iffy prospect at best, and soldiers need to eat now, not maybe in the future only if they are successful.

The ruling elite will save their own asses, and whatever meager wealth they can carry, by fleeing Braavos before the mob catches them and tears them apart. The city's economy has collapsed. They are not going to throw even more money into that pit by funding a highly speculative adventure like this -- even if they had the means to do so.

The real wildcard in all of this Dany. With three dragons, Dany could doublecross Illyrio, or make common cause with Braavos before the hammer falls. At the time this scheme was hatched, she was never expected to even survive the Dothraki, let alone come away with three dragons. Now, however, she can make this whole plan or break it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

No, cities that undergo financial meltdown do not invade other cities.

Like I mentioned above Sweden kept massive army in "Germany" 18 years (1630-48). Major reason what made it possible was that army could finance and feed itself by raiding local cities and countryside and selling "protection" anyone who tried to travel via areas controlled by that army or did not wanted to become next target for Swedish army . In fact one reason why 30 Years War lasted so long was that there was no way that crown of Sweden could pay all wages of their soldiers. Or basically kingdom of Sweden had to keep fighting war or go broke. After all Sweden could not afford to make a peace until sacking of Prague solved that problem. 

Just in theory Braavos should be able to do same thing that Kingdom of Sweden did during 30 Years War. Or make Pentos pay all costs caused that war. Naturally assuming that Braavos would win that war.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Loose Bolt said:

Like I mentioned above Sweden kept massive army in "Germany" 18 years (1630-48). Major reason what made it possible was that army could finance and feed itself by raiding local cities and countryside and selling "protection" anyone who tried to travel via areas controlled by that army or did not wanted to become next target for Swedish army . In fact one reason why 30 Years War lasted so long was that there was no way that crown of Sweden could pay all wages of their soldiers. Or basically kingdom of Sweden had to keep fighting war or go broke. After all Sweden could not afford to make a peace until sacking of Prague solved that problem. 

Just in theory Braavos should be able to do same thing that Kingdom of Sweden did during 30 Years War. Or make Pentos pay all costs caused that war. Naturally assuming that Braavos would win that war.

All of this is presupposing Braavos is going to be weakened by economic failure.  Yet, there is no evidence of this; only bad (or at least highly debatable) facts, and a whole lot of wild speculation. 

Pentos isn't going to rip up its treaty, although they might try to push its boundaries, as they are already doing.  In the absence of overt Pentosi action, I would guess Braavos will be content to stay at home, and maintain their status as a center of commerce.  They have certainly shown no expansionist tendencies so far.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Nevets said:

Pentos isn't going to rip up its treaty, although they might try to push its boundaries, as they are already doing.  In the absence of overt Pentosi action, I would guess Braavos will be content to stay at home, and maintain their status as a center of commerce.  They have certainly shown no expansionist tendencies so far.

Officially Pentos has only 20 warships when Braavos has at least hundreds of those. Only military that P has is their city watch maybe couple thousand men. When B almost certainly has stronger army and so it would almost certain suicide for Pentos to do something that would make Braavos hostile. So I assume that any sane Pentoshi leader would not do anything that would endanger existing status quo.

Besides any economical problems in Braavos or Westeros would be bad for trade and so they would hurt profits of any businessmen in Pentos. So there is a chance that when other Pentoshi find out what team Blackfyre(?) had done they will not be happy and so Illyrio will become persona non grata in Pentos.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
On 8/14/2021 at 6:38 AM, Loose Bolt said:

Like I mentioned above Sweden kept massive army in "Germany" 18 years (1630-48). Major reason what made it possible was that army could finance and feed itself by raiding local cities and countryside and selling "protection" anyone who tried to travel via areas controlled by that army or did not wanted to become next target for Swedish army . In fact one reason why 30 Years War lasted so long was that there was no way that crown of Sweden could pay all wages of their soldiers. Or basically kingdom of Sweden had to keep fighting war or go broke. After all Sweden could not afford to make a peace until sacking of Prague solved that problem. 

Just in theory Braavos should be able to do same thing that Kingdom of Sweden did during 30 Years War. Or make Pentos pay all costs caused that war. Naturally assuming that Braavos would win that war.

Eh, I don't think so. There doesn't seem to be much civilization outside of the city states in Essos. Braavos supports itself through trade, not local farming. Even wood is a rare and valuable commodity. With their gold coin and their currency devalued, they have nothing to trade except clams and cockles. 

I think the bank is going down, and the city with it. Once that happens, Pentos has no reason to abide by the treaty anymore and rich men like Illyrio will benefit. But let's see how it all unfolds. There is no guarantee the plan will actually work.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

No crime syndicate. Just business people looking to install a friendly government in an area of commercial interest. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
16 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Eh, I don't think so. There doesn't seem to be much civilization outside of the city states in Essos

There almost certainly are more surviving civilization in NW Essos than in Middle Europe during late period of 30 Years War. After all during that time practically all armies had became "parasites" that did same thing that Lannisters did during Wo5K. But those armies keep raiding cities and countrysides much longer than 2(?) years. In fact large parts of Middle Europe looked very much like Dothraki Sea. Or those armies behaved like Khalasars. But those armies still could support themselves.

 

17 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Pentos has no reason to abide by the treaty anymore and rich men like Illyrio will benefit.

Pentos is an oligarchy and most members of ruling elite of that city are businessmen. Illyrio had just caused massive problems in Braavos and Westeros which are major customers of those businessmen and so caused massive monetary losses to those other oligarchs. So there is huge chances that those other VIPs are not very happy and they would either kill or just "nationalize" properties of Illyrio and make him persona not grata in Pentos.

 

16 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

Braavos supports itself through trade, not local farming. Even wood is a rare and valuable commodity. With their gold coin and their currency devalued, they have nothing to trade except clams and cockles. 

If one talks about trade b4 15th century main import of Finland during that time was salt and it was paid with barter like furs or timber NOT with money. Actually people in here did not use money unless one counts chicken and eggs as money:) For instance wages of castellans of castles were paid in that "currency".

So as long as Braavosi merchants has something to barter they could keep trading. For instance they could get salt from place A and export that to place B which imports salts but pays that salt with timber and fur and after that they could sell those to place C and after that they could use part of their profits to buy some salt and do that cycle again. Actually that is what traders at Baltic Sea did during Middle Ages.

17 hours ago, John Suburbs said:

I think the bank is going down, and the city with it.

We do not know what other assets Iron Bank has until we see balance sheet of that bank. For instance they could have privilegios like monopolies of buying or selling certain products in certain areas like Hansa League had at Baltic Sea until growing kingdoms in new era broke that monopoly. Or they could own shares of companies, lands, even right to collect taxes or custom revenues of certain cities or countries. After all IB has been major force in Essos hundreds of years so there is a possibility that it has been forceful enough to make offers that weaker entities could not refused. So it is possible that IB has enough of those assets that it will survive.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...