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The Battle of Meereen: Predictions and Summations


BlackLightning
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So, I was thinking the other day about what would've A Dance with Dragons looked like if GRRM was able to followthrough with his plan to include the Battle of Meereen within its pages. After all, the themes of the Battle of Meereen fits more in the titular concept of "dancing with dragons" than the Battle of Winterfell.

So what do we all think was and is going to happen during the Battle of Meereen? A couple people I have talked to think it's going to be a simple case of Barristan, Tyrion and Victarion defeating both the Yunkish and Volantene invasion forces. First they'll do it separately and then they'll join forces and so do it together. Victarion and maybe Tyrion will end up being dragonriders. Daenerys shows up and takes them all into her confidence. At end. Next stop: west for Westeros, west to Volantis or a conquest of Essos. Who knows?

But it is not GRRM's style to do anything simply. The likelihood of complications and surprises and setbacks and twists are pretty high, particularly since there are so many moving parts in Meereen.

What do you think will happen? And do you think that there was ever a chance that the Battle of Meereen, from being to end, could ever have fit within A Dance with Dragons?

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Man the battle of Meereen has so many permutations, moving forces and possibilities it's super difficult to predict anything really. It's also true that all our POV's are on the west side of the battle, anything could happen on the east side, like Lhazareen joining out of nowhere for instance. 

All I'm really expecting is Dany to lose at least one of her dragons to either Victarion of Quentyn if he's still alive, thus starting a cold-war like standoff.

And Barristan dies for sure. 

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Not sure I understand the question.  If you want me to venture some predictions.  I will make some.

The Windblown will switch sides after a man wearing what appears to be the distinct tattered cloak of the Tattered Prince is seen flying Viserion and signaling to his men.  The Windblown will follow him, believing them to be their leader, who has been missing ever since the Quentyn's raid on the dragon pit.

Dany will return to Meereen with Drogon, bringing a horde of Dothraki with her.

The Dragonbinder horn will have some effect on Rhaegal.  To be more daring, I guess that Victarion will force Tyrion to blow the Dragonbinder horn, which will kill Tyrion, but not before transferring his consciousness into Rhaegal.

In any event, the battle will end with all 3 dragons more or less controlled in some sense, such that they can be led to Westeros.

Victarion will die, but not before delivering to Meereen a fleet to ships to transport Dany's Dothraki hordes.

Euron will appear in Slaver's Bay.  By decoying the Redwyne fleet to the other side of Westeros, he has paved the way for Dany's crossing.

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conflict between barristan and victarion -> victarion unable to have things his way gets the horn blown - > lot of fire and blood - > dany returns with the dragon and dothraki -> poor vic is dead, many of his men too (so theres enough space on the ships :-P ), the rest of squids submits -> ......

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I believe the battle of Meereen will be in two parts.

Part 1: Windblown and Second Sons switch sides. Dany's army and Ironborn crush the Yunkish separately. Dragons attack everyone on their own. Victarion will have the dragonhorn blown and ride Rhaegal. In the meantime the Sons of the Harpy revolt and Skahaz goes on rampage. Children hostages and Hizdar are executed. End of battle.

All the sides enter Meereen but can't coordinate. Probable conflict between Barristan and Victarion. Tyrion starts reading the books Jorah gave to Daenerys and starts feeding Viserion. He goes the Nettles way and Viserion accepts him as a rider. While things are starting to get hot in Dany's camp, Volantene arrive. 

Part 2: Dragons and slaves make the difference. Volantene slaves revolt and change sides and dragons burn the Volantene. I believe this is the time for Barristan's death.

 

Edited by Endymion I Targaryen
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On 8/3/2021 at 4:40 PM, Jekse said:

Man the battle of Meereen has so many permutations, moving forces and possibilities it's super difficult to predict anything really. It's also true that all our POV's are on the west side of the battle, anything could happen on the east side, like Lhazareen joining out of nowhere for instance. 

All I'm really expecting is Dany to lose at least one of her dragons to either Victarion of Quentyn if he's still alive, thus starting a cold-war like standoff.

And Barristan dies for sure. 

Why do you think Barristan will die? When do you think he will die? Early on in the battle, at the battle's turning point somewhere in the middle, at the end of the battle, after the battle or just after Daenerys returns?

Do you think Marwyn makes it in time?

I definitely think Quentyn is dead. I can see Victarion gaining control of one of her dragons and Daenerys deciding to marry Victarion in order to keep him in check. I don't see Tyrion ever getting to ride a dragon.

On 8/4/2021 at 9:01 PM, Mister Smikes said:

Not sure I understand the question.  If you want me to venture some predictions.  I will make some.

The Windblown will switch sides after a man wearing what appears to be the distinct tattered cloak of the Tattered Prince is seen flying Viserion and signaling to his men.  The Windblown will follow him, believing them to be their leader, who has been missing ever since the Quentyn's raid on the dragon pit.

Dany will return to Meereen with Drogon, bringing a horde of Dothraki with her.

The Dragonbinder horn will have some effect on Rhaegal.  To be more daring, I guess that Victarion will force Tyrion to blow the Dragonbinder horn, which will kill Tyrion, but not before transferring his consciousness into Rhaegal.

In any event, the battle will end with all 3 dragons more or less controlled in some sense, such that they can be led to Westeros.

Victarion will die, but not before delivering to Meereen a fleet to ships to transport Dany's Dothraki hordes.

Euron will appear in Slaver's Bay.  By decoying the Redwyne fleet to the other side of Westeros, he has paved the way for Dany's crossing.

Well, one of the questions I am posing is asking for predictions. No one really predicts the outcome and circumstances of the Battle of Meereen and the people who do have a very simplistic view of it.

But I'm also asking the question of why do you think the Battle of Meereen didn't make the cut for "A Dance with Dragons?"

Clearly the book's overall theme of dancing with dragons comes to a head with the Battle of Meereen. The Battle of the Blackwater was a big event and it took place over 6 chapters (8 chapters if you want to count the aftermath chapters). Do you think that there was no way that you can get 6-7 chapters (two from Barristan, two from Victarion, two from Tyrion)?

 

That said, there's no way Euron is appearing in Slaver's Bay.

For that to happen, the Battle of the Redwyne Straits needs to have been fought and won AND the appetites of the Ironborn lords and captains need to be sated with the fall of Oldtown. Otherwise, Euron will lose his crown and will be travelling to Daenerys alone. Which puts him in the same position Quentyn was in.

 

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1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

But I'm also asking the question of why do you think the Battle of Meereen didn't make the cut for "A Dance with Dragons?"

That's not the question.  The real question is "why did the Battle of Meereen not make the cut for "A Feast For Crows"? And the answer is that GRRM got carried away and bit off more than he could chew.

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Clearly the book's overall theme of dancing with dragons comes to a head with the Battle of Meereen.

No.  The book's overall theme is "I'm still trying to finish A Feast for Crows so Dany can get to Meereen and the second Dance of the Dragons can begin"..

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That said, there's no way Euron is appearing in Slaver's Bay.

Totally wrong.

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For that to happen, the Battle of the Redwyne Straits needs to have been fought and won AND the appetites of the Ironborn lords and captains need to be sated with the fall of Oldtown.

Nonsense.   There is not going to be any "Battle of the Redwyne Straits" and even if such thing occurs, Euron is not going to be there.    This is a fan delusion.  Neither Euron nor GRRM have said anything to suggest that Euron intends to encounter the Redwyne Fleet.  What Euron intends is for the fools who accepted his poison gifts to be slaughtered by the Redwyne Fleet. The Redwyne Fleet is on its way to the Shield Islands, to reconquer these same fools.  And the Redwyne Fleet will have been decoyed to the other side of Westeros.  Just in time for Dany's crossing.

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Otherwise, Euron will lose his crown and will be travelling to Daenerys alone.

Euron does not give two hoots about his crown, just as he does not give two hoots about the Seastone Chair.  He will take it, use it, and throw it away, like the dragon egg.  His crown and his Ironborn subjects are expendable tokens in his game of chaos.  

He will be traveling to Meereen with his 12 captains.  And he already sent Victarion ahead of him.  And he already controls the Storm Crows and the Company of the Cat. 

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Which puts him in the same position Quentyn was in.

Quentyn has a dragon.  He is hanging out with his new friend Viserion in an abandoned pyramid.  If Euron manages to get one or more dragons as well, and/or manages to get Dany herself, he will have gotten what he is after.  He wants dragons, he wants Dany, and he wants the Iron Throne.  He does not care about the Seastone Chair.

Euron and GRRM are not even trying to fool anyone.  Euron makes no secret where he is going and what he wants, but nobody listens.

Edited by Mister Smikes
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We had the chapters right up to the point the Yunkish appear to be breaking and the Ironborn have arrived, and then the preview mysteriously stopped before the end of the chapter. I think something spectacular is planned, best guess is Victarion is going to have the horn blown. No real idea what that will result in though or how Moqorro has done to it, I suspect it will drive the dragons crazy.

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The Slavers will likely be kerb-stomped outside Meereen.  Dany won’t be back in time for that.  The defection of the Tattered Prince and Brown Ben tears the heart out of the slaver forces, enabling Ser Barristan’s attack to succeed.

I expect Skahaz Mo Kandaq will carry out some very grim retribution in Meereen, with the backing of Grey Worm, Marsalen, Victarion and Tyrion, and Daario (if he’s still alive).   The inhabitants of the pyramids will likely be executed, and the Sons of the Harpy crushed.  Ser Barristan and Missandei will favour a more lenient approach, but be outnumbered.

Dany may be back in time for the Volantene Armada.  I’m not expecting a further fight, but widespread revolt among their soldiers and sailors.

This should have been included in ADWD, but the tale grew too large.

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16 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

That's not the question.  The real question is "why did the Battle of Meereen not make the cut for "A Feast For Crows"? And the answer is that GRRM got carried away and bit off more than he could chew.

No.  The book's overall theme is "I'm still trying to finish A Feast for Crows so Dany can get to Meereen and the second Dance of the Dragons can begin"..

Totally wrong.

Nonsense.   There is not going to be any "Battle of the Redwyne Straits" and even if such thing occurs, Euron is not going to be there.    This is a fan delusion.  Neither Euron nor GRRM have said anything to suggest that Euron intends to encounter the Redwyne Fleet.  What Euron intends is for the fools who accepted his poison gifts to be slaughtered by the Redwyne Fleet. The Redwyne Fleet is on its way to the Shield Islands, to reconquer these same fools.  And the Redwyne Fleet will have been decoyed to the other side of Westeros.  Just in time for Dany's crossing.

Euron does not give two hoots about his crown, just as he does not give two hoots about the Seastone Chair.  He will take it, use it, and throw it away, like the dragon egg.  His crown and his Ironborn subjects are expendable tokens in his game of chaos.  

He will be traveling to Meereen with his 12 captains.  And he already sent Victarion ahead of him.  And he already controls the Storm Crows and the Company of the Cat. 

Quentyn has a dragon.  He is hanging out with his new friend Viserion in an abandoned pyramid.  If Euron manages to get one or more dragons as well, and/or manages to get Dany herself, he will have gotten what he is after.  He wants dragons, he wants Dany, and he wants the Iron Throne.  He does not care about the Seastone Chair.

Euron and GRRM are not even trying to fool anyone.  Euron makes no secret where he is going and what he wants, but nobody listens.

Quentyn is dead.

Euron has no control over any sell sword company in meereen or anyone else in meereen.

I strongly doubt Euron is going to Meereen.

I don't see anyone taking control of a dragon in connection with the battle of meereen.

Dany will come back well before the battle is over.

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54 minutes ago, Brother Seamus said:

Quentyn is dead.

Euron has no control over any sell sword company in meereen or anyone else in meereen.

I strongly doubt Euron is going to Meereen.

I don't see anyone taking control of a dragon in connection with the battle of meereen.

Dany will come back well before the battle is over.

I agree with most of this but I find the bolded part extremely unlikely. Are you basing this on all the winds preview chapters that have been made public? The battle for Meereen was all but over when the chapter suddenly cut out. And there was no Dany. It is hard to judge her timeline after she flies off on Drogan in relation to the events in Meereen (we only have passages like "many days passed" to help) but potentially what you see of her last in Dance with the Dothraki and Drogan happens weeks after the battle of Meereen.

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1 hour ago, Makk said:

I agree with most of this but I find the bolded part extremely unlikely.

That was the only part I agreed with.  I don't know about "well before", but I certainly agree that Dany will reappear before it ends.

1 hour ago, Makk said:

Are you basing this on all the winds preview chapters that have been made public? The battle for Meereen was all but over when the chapter suddenly cut out.

By "all but over", I guess you mean "not over."

1 hour ago, Makk said:

And there was no Dany. It is hard to judge her timeline after she flies off on Drogan in relation to the events in Meereen (we only have passages like "many days passed" to help) but potentially what you see of her last in Dance with the Dothraki and Drogan happens weeks after the battle of Meereen.

The alternative could be true as well, and IMHO, is more likely to be true.  GRRM was at least trying to return to presenting the chapters in more or less chronological order, and the last Dany chapter has been published before the "Battle of Meereen" chapters.  If she and her Dothraki friends get their asses in gear, they have time to return before the end.

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5 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

Quentyn is dead.

Tatters, burnt beyond recognition, died on Dany's bed.  Quentyn is with Viserion at the Pyramid.  Tyrion missed something when he was in the tent, but when the commander rode up in a rage against the Windblown, it is because Archie's secret plan (that he could not tell Gerris in front of Barristan) succeeded.  Archie's plan to turn the Windblown has succeeded, but in a manner he could not explain in front of Barristan.

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Euron has no control over any sell sword company in meereen or anyone else in meereen.

LOL, not even Victarion?  The text does not even make a secret that Victarion is Euron's puppet.

And if Euron has no connection in Essos, what the hell has he been up to for the past 15 years?  He clearly has ambitions that go beyond merely being a pirate.

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I strongly doubt Euron is going to Meereen.

Well, I would not exactly trust him.  But, in this case, why do you think he's lying?  Where would he be going if not where he says he is going, where he sent the entire iron fleet ahead of him, and where a climax of some kind is going to occur?

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I don't see anyone taking control of a dragon in connection with the battle of meereen.

Well then, how will Dany get to Westeros after the battle is over, if the dragons are still uncontrolled?  Or will Dany not reach Westeros til book 7?

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23 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Why do you think Barristan will die?

Probably for reasons we're not aloud to talk about.  But beyond that, GRRM did hint that he is going to eliminate alot of his current POVs, and Barristan does seem like one of the more expendable ones.

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Do you think Marwyn makes it in time?

He won't even try to make it on time.  He's not going to Dany.  He just told Sam that, to appease him.  The sinister Cabal who lay in wait for Sam are not actually on the same team as Sam.

 

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There are three wildcards left on the Yunkish side: the 100 elephants stationed to the East of Meereen, the Ghiscari legions, 36,000 in total, to the North, East, and South of the city, and the Volentene fleet. The elephants very notably have been mentioned only in passing in the chapters we have been given. I suspect GRRM intends to utilize them at some point, and they will be a challenge for the Meereenese, even with the Iron Born reinforcements. Their joining the battle will certainly not be good for the defenders, and will bear watching.

The legions are also a danger. They are not anywhere as good as the Unsullied, of course, but they are a diciplined force nontheless, and a well timed attack could also throw Barristan and his army into disarray. When it comes down to it, I suspect the Unsullied would throw back such an attack, but it might not be without cost.

The real gamechanger here is the Volentene fleet. Everybody on both sides are assuming they will join the slaver coalition, forgetting that this is a fleet comprised of mostly slave soldiers. When they arrive, there is a very good chance that they will join decisively with Danaerys's cause, in a nod to Tolkien's Battle of the Pelennor Fields. This is what will cause the slaver coalition to completely collapse. 

The dragons, of course, will do whatever they do. I make no predictions regarding the dragonhorn.

I do think the slavers will be defeated, but it is going to be a very bloody and chaotic fight.

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4 hours ago, Nathan Stark said:

There are three wildcards left on the Yunkish side: the 100 elephants stationed to the East of Meereen, the Ghiscari legions, 36,000 in total, to the North, East, and South of the city, and the Volentene fleet. The elephants very notably have been mentioned only in passing in the chapters we have been given. I suspect GRRM intends to utilize them at some point, and they will be a challenge for the Meereenese, even with the Iron Born reinforcements. Their joining the battle will certainly not be good for the defenders, and will bear watching.

The legions are also a danger. They are not anywhere as good as the Unsullied, of course, but they are a diciplined force nontheless, and a well timed attack could also throw Barristan and his army into disarray. When it comes down to it, I suspect the Unsullied would throw back such an attack, but it might not be without cost.

The real gamechanger here is the Volentene fleet. Everybody on both sides are assuming they will join the slaver coalition, forgetting that this is a fleet comprised of mostly slave soldiers. When they arrive, there is a very good chance that they will join decisively with Danaerys's cause, in a nod to Tolkien's Battle of the Pelennor Fields. This is what will cause the slaver coalition to completely collapse. 

The dragons, of course, will do whatever they do. I make no predictions regarding the dragonhorn.

I do think the slavers will be defeated, but it is going to be a very bloody and chaotic fight.

Excellent points.

Yes, everyone thought the Corsairs' fleet had come to join the attackers, only to find out they were led by Aragorn.

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On 8/10/2021 at 1:30 AM, SeanF said:

This should have been included in ADWD, but the tale grew too large.

How would you have fit the entire Battle of Meereen (and I guess, that would mean you also have to include Dany's chapters of her in the Dothraki Sea) in Dance?

Or would you have simply cut the battle in half?

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20 hours ago, SeanF said:

Excellent points.

Yes, everyone thought the Corsairs' fleet had come to join the attackers, only to find out they were led by Aragorn.

The fact that Tyrion, Barristan, Victarion, Missandei, Grey Worm and friends could assume that the Volantene armada is coming to attack them can cause them to make some really bold decisions that would otherwise be unnecessary and unwise.

On 8/11/2021 at 7:15 PM, Nathan Stark said:

There are three wildcards left on the Yunkish side: the 100 elephants stationed to the East of Meereen, the Ghiscari legions, 36,000 in total, to the North, East, and South of the city, and the Volentene fleet. The elephants very notably have been mentioned only in passing in the chapters we have been given. I suspect GRRM intends to utilize them at some point, and they will be a challenge for the Meereenese, even with the Iron Born reinforcements. Their joining the battle will certainly not be good for the defenders, and will bear watching.

The legions are also a danger. They are not anywhere as good as the Unsullied, of course, but they are a disciplined force nontheless, and a well timed attack could also throw Barristan and his army into disarray. When it comes down to it, I suspect the Unsullied would throw back such an attack, but it might not be without cost.

The real gamechanger here is the Volentene fleet. Everybody on both sides are assuming they will join the slaver coalition, forgetting that this is a fleet comprised of mostly slave soldiers. When they arrive, there is a very good chance that they will join decisively with Danaerys's cause, in a nod to Tolkien's Battle of the Pelennor Fields. This is what will cause the slaver coalition to completely collapse. 

The dragons, of course, will do whatever they do. I make no predictions regarding the dragonhorn.

I do think the slavers will be defeated, but it is going to be a very bloody and chaotic fight.

Ahhh!!! That's right.

See that's why I made this thread. Because I forgot all about those elephants. And speaking of elephants, I think we are also forgetting about the Qartheen.

Do you think Daenerys will arrive in time? Or do you think she will arrive after the fighting is all over?

On 8/10/2021 at 5:37 PM, Mister Smikes said:

But, in this case, why do you think he's lying?  Where would he be going if not where he says he is going, where he sent the entire iron fleet ahead of him, and where a climax of some kind is going to occur?

I know this is not directed at me but I don't think Euron is lying.

I just think Euron just has to stay put for the time being. He has to remain in Westeros and consolidate his rule. If not for the sake of having an extra fleet and an army that being the Iron King brings, for the sake of providing a beachfront for himself and Daenerys.

On 8/9/2021 at 11:02 PM, Makk said:

We had the chapters right up to the point the Yunkish appear to be breaking and the Ironborn have arrived, and then the preview mysteriously stopped before the end of the chapter. I think something spectacular is planned, best guess is Victarion is going to have the horn blown. No real idea what that will result in though or how Moqorro has done to it, I suspect it will drive the dragons crazy.

Do you think the preview chapters up to the point of the Ironborn's arrival, Barristan's charge and the Yunkish's struggle should've been included?

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5 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

How would you have fit the entire Battle of Meereen (and I guess, that would mean you also have to include Dany's chapters of her in the Dothraki Sea) in Dance?

Or would you have simply cut the battle in half?

I think I’d rigorously prune Dany’s Meereenese storyline, and Tyrion’s Eastern storyline, both of which could be covered in about half the number of chapters.  That would leave space for the battle.

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3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

The fact that Tyrion, Barristan, Victarion, Missandei, Grey Worm and friends could assume that the Volantene armada is coming to attack them can cause them to make some really bold decisions that would otherwise be unnecessary and unwise.

Ahhh!!! That's right.

See that's why I made this thread. Because I forgot all about those elephants. And speaking of elephants, I think we are also forgetting about the Qartheen.

Do you think Daenerys will arrive in time? Or do you think she will arrive after the fighting is all over?

I know this is not directed at me but I don't think Euron is lying.

I just think Euron just has to stay put for the time being. He has to remain in Westeros and consolidate his rule. If not for the sake of having an extra fleet and an army that being the Iron King brings, for the sake of providing a beachfront for himself and Daenerys.

Do you think the preview chapters up to the point of the Ironborn's arrival, Barristan's charge and the Yunkish's struggle should've been included?

They have no option but to attack, once they hear of the Volantenes.  The Volantene armada, IMHO, is what destroys any notion that the slavers sincerely desired peace.

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