The Battle of Meereen: Predictions and Summations

[BlackLightning]

8 hours ago, SeanF said:

They have no option but to attack, once they hear of the Volantenes.  The Volantene armada, IMHO, is what destroys any notion that the slavers sincerely desired peace.

I agree.

The slavers never wanted peace. If peace is what you want to call it. The peace that is supposed to be taking place during Dance and Feast are false peaces. I think that's what GRRM wanted to really illustrate: when you have evil men and women (or at least, men and women who care only about their own personal gain and nothing else) in power or otherwise undisturbed, there is no such thing as peace.

8 hours ago, SeanF said:

They have no option but to attack, once they hear of the Volantenes.  The Volantene armada, IMHO, is what destroys any notion that the slavers sincerely desired peace.

But ultimately I'm not just talking about them having no option but to attack.

What I'm talking about is a classic Edmure Tully situation. The Volantenes could very well catch them completely unawares which could force Tyrion, Victarion and Barristan (or even Missandei, Grey Worm, Skahaz and Reznak) to do things that they normally wouldn't have done. Actions that would otherwise cause Meereen to be endangered or even on the brink of destruction. Like for example, Victarion killing Barristan out of desperation if Barristan is preventing him from using the dragonhorn and riding a dragon to war.

8 hours ago, SeanF said:

I think I’d rigorously prune Dany’s Meereenese storyline, and Tyrion’s Eastern storyline, both of which could be covered in about half the number of chapters.  That would leave space for the battle.

Tyrion's storyline can probably have been covered in maybe half the chapters. Dany's storyline? I'm not so sure: maybe you could cut out one of them.

[Nathan Stark]

15 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

Do you think Daenerys will arrive in time? Or do you think she will arrive after the fighting is all over?

I don't it matters, narratively speaking, whether Dany comes back in time or not. For that reason, I believe she will miss the end of the battle, having been preoccupied with events at the Mother of Mountains and the Dosh Khaleen. Taking over the khalasars and delving into prophesies and horselord politics should take four chapters at least, I would think. Unless George is going for a monthslong seige of Meereen, I think he is going to let Dany take her own time to get things dealt with before she returns to Meereen.

That said, Dany showing up for the end of the battle probably wouldn't effect the larger story very much either way, except maybe to make things go faster, and George might leave a lot out of either the Dany or Meereen plotlines to make things more airtight. So I guess things could go either way. But my money would be on Barristan and co. winning the Battle of Fire before Dany comes back.

[The Winged Griffin]

On 8/11/2021 at 12:37 AM, Mister Smikes said:

LOL, not even Victarion?  The text does not even make a secret that Victarion is Euron's puppet.

And if Euron has no connection in Essos, what the hell has he been up to for the past 15 years?  He clearly has ambitions that go beyond merely being a pirate.

Victarion has been travelling around the world to get to Meereen and as of the last preview chapter, hasn't even reached Meereen proper. The only people from Slaver's Bay he has had contact with were killed immediately after they were captured by the Iron Fleet. Suggesting Euron, through Victarion, has power over anyone in Slaver's Bay is equivalent to saying that Ned is still alive and warged a pigeon right before his death. 

And FYI, Euron has only been travelling the world for 2 years. Whatever connections he may have made aren't as rock-solid as you're suggesting, and I don't know where you got the information that he was banished for 15+ years when he fought in the Greyjoy Rebellion, which took place only 8 years before the start of AGOT.

On 8/10/2021 at 5:02 AM, Mister Smikes said:

Nonsense.   There is not going to be any "Battle of the Redwyne Straits" and even if such thing occurs, Euron is not going to be there.    This is a fan delusion.  Neither Euron nor GRRM have said anything to suggest that Euron intends to encounter the Redwyne Fleet.  What Euron intends is for the fools who accepted his poison gifts to be slaughtered by the Redwyne Fleet. The Redwyne Fleet is on its way to the Shield Islands, to reconquer these same fools.  And the Redwyne Fleet will have been decoyed to the other side of Westeros.  Just in time for Dany's crossing.

What ? There definitely IS going to be a battle against the Redwyne fleet. Here, this quote is pretty explicit: 

Quote

“We are going back to sea. The Redwyne fleet creeps toward us. The winds have been against them rounding Dorne, but they’re finally near enough to have emboldened the old women in Oldtown, so now Leyton Hightower’s sons move down the Whispering Sound in hopes of catching us in the rear.”

If "going back to sea" right as Stonehand talks about battle dispositions and strategies means no battle to you, I'm afraid you're seriously misinterpreting the text. The Redwyne Fleet was originally on its way to reconquer the Shield Islands, but since they set sail, the Ironborn have moved on to the Arbor and Whispering Sound, so the Redwyne Fleet isn't just going to pass without attacking them just to reconquer the Shields, especially with the text specifically mentioning that Oldtown is preparing to move against them simultaneously. 

And FYI, Garlan Tyrell was gathering men to retake the islands as of AFFC, so really the fools who accepted Euron's gifts are going to be reconquered no matter what, rendering the Redwyne Fleet unnecessary in that regard. 

On 8/11/2021 at 12:37 AM, Mister Smikes said:

Well then, how will Dany get to Westeros after the battle is over, if the dragons are still uncontrolled?  Or will Dany not reach Westeros til book 7?

Actually, there's a strong possibility that Dany landing in Westeros might be the stopping point of TWOW, or the beginning point of ADOS. With everything she herself has to go through before that, there's enough material for one book, if you add to that all that needs to happen in Westeros before Dany makes it there. 

On 8/11/2021 at 3:20 AM, Mister Smikes said:

He won't even try to make it on time.  He's not going to Dany.  He just told Sam that, to appease him.  The sinister Cabal who lay in wait for Sam are not actually on the same team as Sam.

What evidence do you base this on ?

Edited August 15, 2021 by The Winged Griffin

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

What ? There definitely IS going to be a battle against the Redwyne fleet. Here, this quote is pretty explicit: 

“We are going back to sea. The Redwyne fleet creeps toward us. The winds have been against them rounding Dorne, but they’re finally near enough to have emboldened the old women in Oldtown, so now Leyton Hightower’s sons move down the Whispering Sound in hopes of catching us in the rear.”

Sounds to me like "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are leaving". 

Why should I assume it means, "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are going to meet them ..."  ?

Why on earth would Euron wait around to be "caught in the rear" by the concentrated naval might of Westeros.  

The Ironborn are basically pirates and raiders.  When their opponents draw battle lines, they go elsewhere.  That's their style.  

And if they ever did plan to meet the concentrated naval forces of Westeros in a pitch battle, it would not be after sending the bulk of their best naval forces, the Iron Fleet, to Slavers' Bay.

Quote

If "going back to sea" right as Stonehand talks about battle dispositions and strategies means no battle to you, I'm afraid you're seriously misinterpreting the text.

I never said there would not be fighting.  What do you think is going on in Slavers' Bay?

Quote

The Redwyne Fleet was originally on its way to reconquer the Shield Islands, but since they set sail, the Ironborn have moved on to the Arbor and Whispering Sound, so the Redwyne Fleet isn't just going to pass without attacking them just to reconquer the Shields, especially with the text specifically mentioning that Oldtown is preparing to move against them simultaneously. 

The entire Iron Fleet, led by Victarion, has passed around the south of Westeros, and they have been raiding and pillaging along the way.  But they are already gone.  They are at Slavers' Bay.

Euron has just left his island base near (apparently) the Arbor.  Judging from the fact that he left the castle burning behind him, he has no plan to return.   If the Redwyne fleet attacks Euron at the Arbor, Euron will not be waiting there, no more than he will be waiting at the Shields.

Euron can sail out sight of land, and lead other ships.  He can ride the storm by blood sacrifice.  He has no need to meet the Redwyne fleet in pitched battle.  He can just outsail them and outmaneuver them and bypass them.  Victarion has already managed to bypass them en route to Slavers' Bay.  And if Victarion can bypass them, Euron certainly can.

And if he planned to meet the concentrated naval might of Westeros, he would hardly think of doing that without the Iron Fleet.  But the Iron Fleet has been sent to Slavers' Bay.    

And that's where Euron plans to be too.  And he can travel much faster than Victarion, since he can control the winds by blood sacrifice, and ride the storm.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Mister Smikes

[The Winged Griffin]

9 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Sounds to me like "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are leaving". 

Why should I assume it means, "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are going to meet them ..."  ?

Why on earth would Euron wait around to be "caught in the rear" by the concentrated naval might of Westeros.  

The Ironborn are basically pirates and raiders.  When their opponents draw battle lines, they go elsewhere.  That's their style.  

And if they ever did plan to meet the concentrated naval forces of Westeros in a pitch battle, it would not be after sending the bulk of their best naval forces, the Iron Fleet, to Slavers' Bay.

I never said there would not be fighting.  What do you think is going on in Slavers' Bay?

The entire Iron Fleet, led by Victarion, has passed around the south of Westeros, and they have been raiding and pillaging along the way.  But they are already gone.  They are at Slavers' Bay.

Euron has just left his island base near (apparently) the Arbor.  Judging from the fact that he left the castle burning behind him, he has no plan to return.   If the Redwyne fleet attacks Euron at the Arbor, Euron will not be waiting there, no more than he will be waiting at the Shields.

Euron can sail out sight of land, and lead other ships.  He can ride the storm by blood sacrifice.  He has no need to meet the Redwyne fleet in pitched battle.  He can just outsail them and outmaneuver them and bypass them.  Victarion has already managed to bypass them en route to Slavers' Bay.  And if Victarion can bypass them, Euron certainly can.

And if he planned to meet the concentrated naval might of Westeros, he would hardly think of doing that without the Iron Fleet.  But the Iron Fleet has been sent to Slavers' Bay.    

And that's where Euron plans to be too.  And he can travel much faster than Victarion, since he can control the winds by blood sacrifice, and ride the storm.

Euron nearly faced a mutiny when he said he'd take his entire fleet and move to Slaver's Bay. I don't know why that should change now. His men want Oldtown. They've said it since the Reaver chapter, and there's little evidence to think that they'll settle for anything else. That's why he sent Victarion instead of going himself. And if Euron was going to go to Slaver's Bay anyway, why should he leave now when he should have gone with Victarion? 

And FYI, Victarion passed through the Stepstones before the Redwyne Fleet did, so they didn't even cross paths. it's just a matter of good timing. Euron can't do that this time, since two fleets are coming straight at him from two opposite directions. 

Basically, he's almost already trapped. Oldtown's fleet is blocking the north side of the straits, and the Redwyne Fleet is coming straight at him from the south. But he's learned from the battle of Fair Isle, where the Iron Fleet was caught in the rear in the straits between Fair Isle and the Westerlands. The situation is exactly the same this time, except that would be repetitive and out of character for him to be caught like that again, taking into account the fact that this time it's predictable, and probably what he planned. 

[Mister Smikes]

4 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

Euron nearly faced a mutiny when he said he'd take his entire fleet and move to Slaver's Bay. I don't know why that should change now.

That's ancient history.  Euron has already tricked Victarion into taking the Iron Fleet to Slaver's Bay.  And the Iron Fleet is at Slaver's Bay.

And as for the 12 Captains who are most closely-tied to Euron himself, and who sail out with him on at the end of The Foresaken, there is no indication they won't follow Euron wherever he wishes to go.

Quote

His men want Oldtown. They've said it since the Reaver chapter, and there's little evidence to think that they'll settle for anything else.

These are the same fools he is leaving behind to be slaughtered.  And good riddance as far as he is concerned.  

Quote

That's why he sent Victarion instead of going himself. And if Euron was going to go to Slaver's Bay anyway, why should he leave now when he should have gone with Victarion? 

Euron, with his power to control the winds by blood sacrifice, can travel much faster than Victarion.  They do not need to leave at the same time, to arrive at the same time or earier.  And Euron wants Victarion to imagine he is acting in his own behalf.  That is part of the manipulation.  He does not want Victarion to know that Euron will show up as well.   Victarion thinks he is pursuing his own glory.

In the meantime, we don't actually know what Euron is up to.  The Foresaken chapter covers maybe 5 months of time or more, and Damp-hair sees Euron only rarely.  We don't actually know how much time has passed while Damp-hair was imprisoned at the Shields.  Nor do we know how much time has passed while Damp-hair was imprisoned in the hull of the Silence.  Meanwhile, Euron can sail to Slavers' Bay and back in a matter of weeks.

I don't think Euron has just been sitting at the Shields the whole time.  We will find out what he has been up to later.  In the meantime, GRRM does not want us to know.

Quote

And FYI, Victarion passed through the Stepstones before the Redwyne Fleet did, so they didn't even cross paths. it's just a matter of good timing. Euron can't do that this time, since two fleets are coming straight at him from two opposite directions. 

Dude.  Come on!  I already explained this.   Euron can sail out of sight of land.   He has done this before, leading other ships in his wake.  That's how he approached the Shields.  He can bypass anyone, any time.

Quote

Basically, he's almost already trapped.

LOL, no.

Quote

Oldtown's fleet is blocking the north side of the straits, and the Redwyne Fleet is coming straight at him from the south. 

Euron has no need to use the "north side of the straits".  He is (apparently) on an island off the Arbor, which presumably means he is either on the south side of the straits or not in the straits at all.   And the Redwyne fleet can't come straight for him unless they know where he is.  And how would they know where he is?   Apparently, Euron just attacked this island, slaughtered its inhabitants, and sailed away leaving the castle burning behind him.   The slaughtered corpses have barely had time to grow cold.   By the time the Redwyne fleet finds out he was ever there, he will be already gone.

Quote

But he's learned from the battle of Fair Isle, where the Iron Fleet was caught in the rear in the straits between Fair Isle and the Westerlands. The situation is exactly the same this time, except that would be repetitive and out of character for him to be caught like that again, taking into account the fact that this time it's predictable, and probably what he planned. 

LOL.  You are overlooking a key similarity.  In the First Battle of Fair Isle, Euron was not present either.  Euron took the credit for the victories of the Greyjoy Rebellion, but left Victarion holding the reins for the defeat.

He intends to do the same thing here.  And says so.  Euron gets the credit for conquering the Shields.  Others will have the shame of losing them.

And what do you expect Euron to learn from the battle off Fair Isle?  What it tells us is that the Iron Throne can crush the Iron Fleet.  All they have to do is catch them.  And somehow, you think this proves that Euron is just going to sit around and wait to get caught?  Why on earth would he do that?  He does not even have the Iron Fleet to back him up.  Because he sent it to Slavers' Bay.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Mister Smikes

[BlackLightning]

49 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

That's ancient history.  Euron has already tricked Victarion into taking the Iron Fleet to Slaver's Bay.  And the Iron Fleet is at Slaver's Bay.

=

What?!

This is where you are wrong fam. Euron never tricked Victarion into taking the Iron Fleet to Slavers' Bay; he just simply told him to do it and Victarion complied, while secretly plotting to betray Euron.

There was literally no trick. Euron didn't even have to bribe him.

50 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

In the meantime, we don't actually know what Euron is up to.  The Foresaken chapter covers maybe 5 months of time or more, and Damp-hair sees Euron only rarely.  We don't actually know how much time has passed while Damp-hair was imprisoned at the Shields.  Nor do we know how much time has passed while Damp-hair was imprisoned in the hull of the Silence.  Meanwhile, Euron can sail to Slavers' Bay and back in a matter of weeks.

 

Wrong again. Damphair was captured and imprisoned on the Iron Isles not at the Shields.

Your larger point is correct but Euron can't sail to Slaver's Bay and back in a matter of weeks. That's ludicrous. Especially given the fact that he is going to have to take Dany's vast armies with him on the way back to Westeros.

14 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Sounds to me like "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are leaving". 

Why should I assume it means, "the Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are going to meet them ..."  ?

Umm...the actual language.

The Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are going to have to fight them.

And where are they leaving? They have to outmaneuver and outpace both the Redwyne fleet if they want to go east and the Tyrell mini-fleet that is supposed to be headed towards the Shields if they want to go back to the Iron Isles. They will likely be chased too if they try to leave.

16 hours ago, The Winged Griffin said:

What evidence do you base this on ?

To his credit, there is no real evidence as The Winds of Winter has yet to come out.

And also to his credit, there is a very strong likelihood that the Citadel has its own agenda. Barbrey Dustin is the not the only one who distrusts maesters an

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

This is where you are wrong fam. Euron never tricked Victarion into taking the Iron Fleet to Slavers' Bay; he just simply told him to do it and Victarion complied, while secretly plotting to betray Euron.

There was literally no trick. Euron didn't even have to bribe him.

Euron makes an offer.  Victarion accepts it because he hopes to manipulate the situation to his own advantage.  Euron knows this, but is two steps ahead of Victarion who is dumb as a box of rocks.  That's all I mean by "tricked." 

I'm not sure what exactly Euron has up his sleeve, but nothing can be more certain but that he will outmanuever Victarion.

But one thing can be guessed.  Victarion imagines he will be in charge at Slavers' Bay and take credit for any victories there.  But he won't.  Euron will appear and claim the victory, and Victarion is probably not long for this world.

Anyhow, this is an insane conversation.  First someone tells me that the Ironborn will mutiny. rather than go to Slavers Bay.  I point out that the Ironborn are already in Slavers Bay.  Now I've got someone else telling me I am wrong because I used the word "tricked".  No, no, they were not tricked!  They went of their own free will!  All Euron had to do was ask. 

Okay, fine.  Have it your way.  They were not "tricked".  They are still in Slavers Bay.  They are exactly where Euron wants them to be.

Quote

Wrong again. Damphair was captured and imprisoned on the Iron Isles not at the Shields.

Damp-hair had 3 periods of imprisonment:  (1) imprisonment on the Silence, (2) imprisonment at the Shields, and (3) imprisonment - again - on the Silence.  During all 3 periods of imprisonment he was held in complete darkness, and lost track of time.  

I said nothing about where he was captured.  But yes, he was captured on the Iron Islands (but never imprisoned there).

Quote

Your larger point is correct but Euron can't sail to Slaver's Bay and back in a matter of weeks. That's ludicrous.

At a steady 12 knots (faster for all I know) he certainly can.  Do the math.  

Euron all-but tells us he can control the winds by blood sacrifice; that he can "ride the storm".   But nobody bothers to consider what that really means.

We have already seen Stannis' fleet journey in record time to the Wall, thanks to Mel's magic, so we know these things work.

Quote

Especially given the fact that he is going to have to take Dany's vast armies with him on the way back to Westeros.

I said nothing about how fast he would go once he picked up Dany and her vast armies.  All I am saying that in the roughly 5 months (or more) that Damp-hair has been imprisoned, he has had time so far to sail all kinds of places and do all kinds of things.  But obviously he has not picked up Dany and her vast armies yet, so I obviously was not considering that yet.

Quote

Umm...the actual language.

The Redwyne fleet is coming, so we are going to have to fight them.

That's not the actual language.  Telling lies is a poor way to win an argument.

I have already admitted it is one possible interpretation.  But you are refusing to consider the other interpretation.  And that is not an argument either.

Quote

And where are they leaving?

Probably an Island off the Arbor.  At least, that's apparently what his captains think.  But if Euron has been sailing out of sight of land, and the captains have been following him, it is possible that only Euron knows where they really are.

Quote

They have to outmaneuver and outpace both the Redwyne fleet if they want to go east and the Tyrell mini-fleet that is supposed to be headed towards the Shields if they want to go back to the Iron Isles. They will likely be chased too if they try to leave.

Do you think the ocean is a bathtub?  We know that Euron can sail out of sight of land.  We know that Ironborn ships are fast, as they are designed as raiders.  We know that Euron can control the winds by blood magic.  The Redwyne fleet does not know where Euron is now, much less where he is going.  Euron can't be found.  Euron can't be chased.

 

Edited August 16, 2021 by Mister Smikes

[Jekse]

On 8/10/2021 at 4:02 AM, BlackLightning said:

Why do you think Barristan will die? When do you think he will die? Early on in the battle, at the battle's turning point somewhere in the middle, at the end of the battle, after the battle or just after Daenerys returns?

I think he will either die off-screen soon after Barristan II or in POV in Barry III. Banners get confused, no clear military hierarchy and him giving 2nd in command to a reckless amateur. Also I don't really see him doing anything much important in the story, keep in mind he was added as an afterthought-POV because GRRM needed someone on the inside of Meereen at the end of Dance 

[Mister Smikes]

3 hours ago, Jekse said:

Also I don't really see him doing anything much important in the story, keep in mind he was added as an afterthought-POV because GRRM needed someone on the inside of Meereen at the end of Dance 

This logic is misleading.  GRRM did not put Baristan in Meereen because he needed a point of view there.  He put Baristan in Meereen for some other reason (whatever that was) and then belatedly decided he needed to give Baristan POV chapters, to solve some particular problem he had.

[Jekse]

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

This logic is misleading.  GRRM did not put Baristan in Meereen because he needed a point of view there.  He put Baristan in Meereen for some other reason (whatever that was) and then belatedly decided he needed to give Baristan POV chapters, to solve some particular problem he had.

I said nothing about why Barry was added in Meereen, and you're just repeating my point about why he was added as a POV. 

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, Jekse said:

I said nothing about why Barry was added in Meereen, and you're just repeating my point about why he was added as a POV. 

In that case, I don't understand how it follows that he will do nothing important in the story.

[BlackLightning]

On 8/18/2021 at 3:44 PM, Jekse said:

I think he will either die off-screen soon after Barristan II or in POV in Barry III. Banners get confused, no clear military hierarchy and him giving 2nd in command to a reckless amateur. Also I don't really see him doing anything much important in the story, keep in mind he was added as an afterthought-POV because GRRM needed someone on the inside of Meereen at the end of Dance 

I have to admit that I have a hard time seeing him surviving The Winds of Winter and making it into A Dream of Spring

But Barristan Selmy seems to be crafting a legacy of his own in Essos, what with the fact that he is introducing the concept of not only knighthood to Essos but that those thought to be useless (old men, women, cripples) are not only useful but powerful in their own way. And based on what we see of the Essosi, they are much more prejudiced against the elderly, the handicapped and women than the Westerosi are. Barristan is also currently training six young men how to be knights. Those boys will end up becoming true knights and their concept of knighthood won't have anything to do with the religion of the Seven. For that reason, knighthood is revolutionized into a more purer form.

I do see Barristan Selmy living a bit longer to fight in many other battles and maybe even reuniting with Jaime and meeting Brienne. I think GRRM is making Barristan Selmy out to be beyond legendary. The greatest knight to have ever lived. Maybe even the Last Hero Come Again?

For that reason, I rather him make it to A Dream of Spring, help play a role in the R+L=J mystery/revelation and then maybe receive a glorious death in battle against the Others. I imagine his death will be evocative of Waymar Royce, Gandalf's "You shall not pass," and the TV show version of Stannis' death.

Edited September 8, 2021 by BlackLightning

[StarksInTheNorth]

On 8/12/2021 at 6:55 PM, BlackLightning said:

How would you have fit the entire Battle of Meereen (and I guess, that would mean you also have to include Dany's chapters of her in the Dothraki Sea) in Dance?

Or would you have simply cut the battle in half?

For the US hardbacks, AFFC is ~700 pages and ADWD is ~950. To fit Battle of Meereen into ADWD, we'd need to find a way to move probably ~200 pages to AFFC.

We can get ~45 pages if we move the Areo and Arya chapters from ADWD to AFFC. The Jaime and Cersei chapters would also give us another ~45 pages. Another ~30-40 pages if the Bran chapters are sent to AFFC. In total, I've moved ~120 pages and can't seem to cut much more, but there's always too many descriptions of food. We could maybe move Theon for another ~90 pages, but it would be tight.

[StarksInTheNorth]

On 8/20/2021 at 9:37 AM, BlackLightning said:

I have to admit that I have a hard time seeing him surviving The Winds of Winter and making it into A Dream of Spring

But Barristan Selmy seems to be crafting a legacy of his own in Essos, what with the fact that he is introducing the concept of not only knighthood to Essos but that those thought to be useless (old men, women, cripples) are not only useful but powerless. He is currently training six young men how to be knights. Those boys will end up becoming true knights and their concept of knighthood won't have anything to do with the Seven.

I do see Barristan Selmy living a bit longer to fight in many other battles and maybe even reuniting with Jaime and meeting Brienne. I think GRRM is making Barristan Selmy into a legendary knight. The greatest knight ever to be born. Maybe the Last Hero Come Again?

For that reason, I rather him make it to A Dream of Spring, help play a role in the R+L=J mystery and revelation and then maybe receive a glorious death in battle against the Others. I imagine his death will be evocative of Waymar Royce, Gandalf's "You shall not pass," and the TV show version of Stannis' death.

Barristan wasn't trusted by Rhaegar, for all that he acts like he was. Rhaegar had his crowd of people around him and he brought his 6 companions out to galavant in the Riverlands and/or meet up with Lyanna (a truth likely to never be shared in full). Likely among them were the Kingsguard who died at the Tower of Joy (minus Lord Commander Hightower, who arrived on the scene later). For that reason, I don't think Barristan will be relevant to the R+L reveal.

I'm a fan of the theory that the Shavepate will stage a coup after the battle is won and that Barristan will arrive back in the Great Pyramid to find Hizdahr and the young hostages dead (hopefully not Missandei, though I am fearful for her ending. . .). Unfortunately, this includes the young boys that Barristan is training to be knights. This ending is both practical - by the time Barristan dies, there are at least one other POV remaining in Meereen, if not two (Tyrion and Victarion) - and in line with character goals that have been stated (Shavepate is very clear he thinks the kids should die and that he hates Hizdahr. It's also somewhat thematic, related to the tragedy of a knight and the questions of their vows. Barristan decided it held him to Hizdahr, who didn't want him, and to his queen's city, which is starting to reject her. 

[BlackLightning]

12 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

For the US hardbacks, AFFC is ~700 pages and ADWD is ~950. To fit Battle of Meereen into ADWD, we'd need to find a way to move probably ~200 pages to AFFC.

We can get ~45 pages if we move the Areo and Arya chapters from ADWD to AFFC. The Jaime and Cersei chapters would also give us another ~45 pages. Another ~30-40 pages if the Bran chapters are sent to AFFC. In total, I've moved ~120 pages and can't seem to cut much more, but there's always too many descriptions of food. We could maybe move Theon for another ~90 pages, but it would be tight.

You could technically also move "The Wayward Bride" chapter into A Feast for Crows as well. That's what? ~25 pages?

As for Theon's chapters, I would only move the first three Reek chapters and leave the last four chapters (which take place in Winterfell) in A Dance with Dragons. Of course, that would mean that I would move the Theon sample chapter and perhaps the leaked Asha chapter that depicts Theon's unsuccessful execution into A Dance with Dragons.

[BlackLightning]

12 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

Barristan wasn't trusted by Rhaegar, for all that he acts like he was. Rhaegar had his crowd of people around him and he brought his 6 companions out to galavant in the Riverlands and/or meet up with Lyanna (a truth likely to never be shared in full). Likely among them were the Kingsguard who died at the Tower of Joy (minus Lord Commander Hightower, who arrived on the scene later). For that reason, I don't think Barristan will be relevant to the R+L reveal.

I'm a fan of the theory that the Shavepate will stage a coup after the battle is won and that Barristan will arrive back in the Great Pyramid to find Hizdahr and the young hostages dead (hopefully not Missandei, though I am fearful for her ending. . .). Unfortunately, this includes the young boys that Barristan is training to be knights. This ending is both practical - by the time Barristan dies, there are at least one other POV remaining in Meereen, if not two (Tyrion and Victarion) - and in line with character goals that have been stated (Shavepate is very clear he thinks the kids should die and that he hates Hizdahr. It's also somewhat thematic, related to the tragedy of a knight and the questions of their vows. Barristan decided it held him to Hizdahr, who didn't want him, and to his queen's city, which is starting to reject her. 

Just because Rhaegar didn't trust Barristan to ride off with him to the Riverlands, take Lyanna Stark and then to ride off to Dorne to guard Lyanna Stark, it doesn't necessarily mean that he didn't trust Barristan.

Tell me more about this theory of yours. I've never heard of it. Does Shavepate kill Barristan after Barristan returns to the Great Pyramid after the battle is won?

I actually don't think Meereen is rejecting Daenerys. I think Meereen supports Daenerys and that the pro-monarchy, anti-Daenerys royalists and the Sons of the Harpy (if, that is, the royalists and the Sons are different factions) are fighting a losing battle.

[StarksInTheNorth]

On 9/8/2021 at 12:28 PM, BlackLightning said:

Just because Rhaegar didn't trust Barristan to ride off with him to the Riverlands, take Lyanna Stark and then to ride off to Dorne to guard Lyanna Stark, it doesn't necessarily mean that he didn't trust Barristan.

Tell me more about this theory of yours. I've never heard of it. Does Shavepate kill Barristan after Barristan returns to the Great Pyramid after the battle is won?

I actually don't think Meereen is rejecting Daenerys. I think Meereen supports Daenerys and that the pro-monarchy, anti-Daenerys royalists and the Sons of the Harpy (if, that is, the royalists and the Sons are different factions) are fighting a losing battle.

It's been a while since I read the original somewhere on tumblr, but the general gist is that Barristan leads Team Dany in Battle of Meereen and wins. However, back in the Great Pyramid the Shavepate uses the chaos and distraction of the battle to kill Hizdahr for his crimes against Daenerys and then to kill the wards, pages, cupbearers, etc. for the same. He kept pushing to kill the children from the minute they were introduced, so finding an opportunity to do so won't be hard for him. And his distaste for Hizdahr is also pretty well-known to Dany and Barristan.

Barristan's death would come after he arrives back on the scene, filled with plans of how to save the city, and finds all of Dany's children dead along with her husband. He confronts Shavepate and tells him that this type of killing is treason against Dany. Shavepate either claims the city for his own people, i.e. the slaves and the Brazen Beast claiming Meereen as their own without Dany, or says Barristan wasn't willing to do what needed to be done and kills him for it.

My support for this is borne from a few things: Barristan died in Meereen in the show which could suggest a sort of trajectory (or it couldn't because who knows with anything after season 4ish); There's 3 POVs in Meereen at this point and the numbers of POVs will end up dwindling. Personally, I think both Victarion and Barristan die, but if not Barristan definitely will. Tyrion will be able to talk his way into the war planning meetings through Brown Ben Plumm so he can be the POV for a lot of necessary information, with the added element of focusing westward and not caring about Meereen's outcome. Whereas Barristan imo will never leave without a command or appearance from his queen.

(as an aside, I think it's less "Meereen is rejecting Dany" and more "Meereen makes a semi-autonomous decision to the point that she and/or her advisors are willing to let it go and won't see it turn into another Astapor because the Shavepate/Brazen Beasts have it under control so she can get on her way to Westeros").

 

[StarksInTheNorth]

On 9/8/2021 at 12:21 PM, BlackLightning said:

You could technically also move "The Wayward Bride" chapter into A Feast for Crows as well. That's what? ~25 pages?

As for Theon's chapters, I would only move the first three Reek chapters and leave the last four chapters (which take place in Winterfell) in A Dance with Dragons. Of course, that would mean that I would move the Theon sample chapter and perhaps the leaked Asha chapter that depicts Theon's unsuccessful execution into A Dance with Dragons.

The problem with all of this speculation is of course that we are acting as if GRRM had it ALL written at the same time

Although I'd push back on at least some of the Reek material and maybe also Wayward Bride because that all intersected nicely with Jon's POVs of Stannis.

The other option would be to potentially swap all the Cersei material and the Jon material so Jon was the 'leading' POV of AFFC and Dany was the 'leading' POV of ADWD, foiled simultaneously against Cersei's attempts at ruling. Cersei's material is shorter and so it might work out.

[SeanF]

49 minutes ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

It's been a while since I read the original somewhere on tumblr, but the general gist is that Barristan leads Team Dany in Battle of Meereen and wins. However, back in the Great Pyramid the Shavepate uses the chaos and distraction of the battle to kill Hizdahr for his crimes against Daenerys and then to kill the wards, pages, cupbearers, etc. for the same. He kept pushing to kill the children from the minute they were introduced, so finding an opportunity to do so won't be hard for him. And his distaste for Hizdahr is also pretty well-known to Dany and Barristan.

Barristan's death would come after he arrives back on the scene, filled with plans of how to save the city, and finds all of Dany's children dead along with her husband. He confronts Shavepate and tells him that this type of killing is treason against Dany. Shavepate either claims the city for his own people, i.e. the slaves and the Brazen Beast claiming Meereen as their own without Dany, or says Barristan wasn't willing to do what needed to be done and kills him for it.

My support for this is borne from a few things: Barristan died in Meereen in the show which could suggest a sort of trajectory (or it couldn't because who knows with anything after season 4ish); There's 3 POVs in Meereen at this point and the numbers of POVs will end up dwindling. Personally, I think both Victarion and Barristan die, but if not Barristan definitely will. Tyrion will be able to talk his way into the war planning meetings through Brown Ben Plumm so he can be the POV for a lot of necessary information, with the added element of focusing westward and not caring about Meereen's outcome. Whereas Barristan imo will never leave without a command or appearance from his queen.

(as an aside, I think it's less "Meereen is rejecting Dany" and more "Meereen makes a semi-autonomous decision to the point that she and/or her advisors are willing to let it go and won't see it turn into another Astapor because the Shavepate/Brazen Beasts have it under control so she can get on her way to Westeros").

 

Piece of work though he is, the Shavepate is probably the most viable ruler for Meereen.  I too could see him ruling as archon in her name.  Assuming the slaver coalition is destroyed, then he'll have both a gendarmerie (the Brazen Beasts) and a standing army (the companies of freedmen) to protect the city.