Did Robert Baratheon make his brothers more powerful than any previous Targaryen prince without a dragon?

[frenin]

6 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

As Lord of Dragonstone Stannis had his own seat and a bunch of bannermen sworn to him directly. They are the foundation of his entire campaign.

Which would have led him to absolutely nowhere without the Stormlanders he got via Melisandre. His seat and bunch of bannermen were pretty much irrelevant.

 

 

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Dragonstone is considered a great seat .

By whom?? Dragonstone is considered an ancestral seat by its lack of power is stated ad nauseam.

 

14 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Daemon Blackfyre was the greatest knight of the Realm, had a lot charisma and armies of friends ... that isn't the case for either Maekar or Stannis. Daemon Blackfyre also was made a landed knight and given the right to build a seat somewhere along the Blackwater. We don't know if he ever did that, but if he did he would at least have had his own seat.

And yet, Maekar's and Stannis's ability to pose a threat to the Throne is always stated

Daemon's danger relative to his modest seat is never addressed either.

A seat is important if  it comes with money and or men. Stannis had neither, Maekar had either, Daemon had either. Yet they all posed a threat to the Throne.

[Lord Varys]

17 minutes ago, frenin said:

Which would have led him to absolutely nowhere without the Stormlanders he got via Melisandre. His seat and bunch of bannermen were pretty much irrelevant.

As I said, Mel would have never gone to Stannis if he hadn't been Lord of Dragonstone.

17 minutes ago, frenin said:

And yet, Maekar's and Stannis's ability to pose a threat to the Throne is always stated

Because Stannis is a lord in his own right. Else he wouldn't have been much of threat due to his shitty personality.

Maekar isn't a threat to the throne at all. There is one hedge knight who fantasizes about Bloodraven and Maekar both wanting to succeed Aerys I. This has never been confirmed as actually being the desire of either man ... nor is there the slightest hint that Maekar retreating to Summerhall indicates he plotted against his royal brother and planned to overthrow him.

 

[frenin]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

As I said, Mel would have never gone to Stannis if he hadn't been Lord of Dragonstone.

No, Meli would have never gone to Stannis if he wasn't in Dragonstone. If Stannis is made castellan instead of Lord, the outcome is the exact same.

And you were talking about armies and the such, not well, a wizard.

Any person with a wizard as their aide can make a bid to the throne.

 

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Because Stannis is a lord in his own right. Else he wouldn't have been much of threat due to his shitty personality.

Nope, because Stannis has Mel who gets him the armies he needs, regardless of his shitty personality.

If Stannis doesn't get more levies besides those of Dragonstone, he's nothing more than an annoyance. Even in the Dance this is true, even when the Velaryons are at their highest. Dragonstone on their own couldn't do much.

Everyone keeps about how useless Dragonstone is, why you keep arguing against it?? 

 

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Maekar isn't a threat to the throne at all. There is one hedge knight who fantasizes about Bloodraven and Maekar both wanting to succeed Aerys I. This has never been confirmed as actually being the desire of either man ... nor is there the slightest hint that Maekar retreating to Summerhall indicates he plotted against his royal brother and planned to overthrow him.

No, he didn't want to. But he was obviously dangerous, this is also repeated ad nauseam. Even, Bloodraven attempts to take Egg as hostage to keep Maekar in check and stops himself once he's warned that that would indeed have the opposite effect.

Of all the people who have fought for the Throne, the only ones who directly benefitted from being "lords (ie powerful) in their own right" at the time they made their bid for the throne have been Robert and Renly. The rest, regardless of whether they failed or succeeded, either didn't have lordships or their lordships were irrelevant. But they all had either dragons and/or powerful alliances.

[Lord Varys]

29 minutes ago, frenin said:

No, Meli would have never gone to Stannis if he wasn't in Dragonstone. If Stannis is made castellan instead of Lord, the outcome is the exact same.

Who said Stannis would be castellan of Dragonstone in such a scenario? Mel would then view the Lord of Dragonstone as her savior, whoever that was, not its castellan.

29 minutes ago, frenin said:

Nope, because Stannis has Mel who gets him the armies he needs, regardless of his shitty personality.

If Stannis doesn't get more levies besides those of Dragonstone, he's nothing more than an annoyance. Even in the Dance this is true, even when the Velaryons are at their highest. Dragonstone on their own couldn't do much.

Everyone keeps about how useless Dragonstone is, why you keep arguing against it?? 

We are talking context. Dragonstone isn't as great a lordship as many of the others ... but it is a castle with its own bannermen giving you a modest base for raising troops. There is no indication that Summerhall had any lords sworn to it, so there is no indication Maekar as Prince of Summerhall would have been in a better position than Stannis.

29 minutes ago, frenin said:

No, he didn't want to. But he was obviously dangerous, this is also repeated ad nauseam. Even, Bloodraven attempts to take Egg as hostage to keep Maekar in check and stops himself once he's warned that that would indeed have the opposite effect.

There is a rivalry between Bloodraven and Maekar for the Handship, yes. Maekar wanted to be Hand and was pissed when his brother favored the bastard, but that has nothing to do with Maekar threatening the throne. King Aerys I's reign would continue even after he dismissed Bloodraven and named a different Hand.

29 minutes ago, frenin said:

Of all the people who have fought for the Throne, the only ones who directly benefitted from being "lords (ie powerful) in their own right" at the time they made their bid for the throne have been Robert and Renly. The rest, regardless of whether they failed or succeeded, either didn't have lordships or their lordships were irrelevant. But they all had either dragons and/or powerful alliances.

That is an irrelevant comment. The point I'm making is that Stannis and Renly have powerful lordships in their own right which gave them a better powerbase than any other pretender to the Iron Throne previously had. All the other pretenders of history would have been in better positions than they were if they had been lords in their own right like Stannis and Renly. But most of them were not.

And, of course, Rhaenyra profited from being Princess of Dragonstone which gave her own seat and access to dragons. That said, her advantage wasn't so much dragons or her own seat but the simple fact that she was the rightful heir and chosen successor of her father, and the entire Realm knew that. But, of course, if Rhaenyra hadn't had a seat of her own and had lived at court then Otto and Criston Cole would have just arrested her and Daemon and her children along with all the other Blacks at court they arrested.

And even if they had gotten away somehow - without a seat of their own they would have been dependent on the mercy and support of others.

[frenin]

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Who said Stannis would be castellan of Dragonstone in such a scenario? Mel would then view the Lord of Dragonstone as her savior, whoever that was, not its castellan.

No, she would have view the one in charge as the savior. And she clearly believed it's Stannis regardless. 

 

 

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

We are talking context. Dragonstone isn't as great a lordship as many of the others ... but it is a castle with its own bannermen giving you a modest base for raising troops. There is no indication that Summerhall had any lords sworn to it, so there is no indication Maekar as Prince of Summerhall would have been in a better position than Stannis

It's still negligible when talking about taking the Throne. Dragonstone as base is simply a non starter.

They would have been in the same situation either way, if they are remotely similar. Not a threat at all, whatever threat they would pose would come from their alliances and how their achievement and position sway this people.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

There is a rivalry between Bloodraven and Maekar for the Handship, yes. Maekar wanted to be Hand and was pissed when his brother favored the bastard, but that has nothing to do with Maekar threatening the throne. King Aerys I's reign would continue even after he dismissed Bloodraven and named a different Hand.

He didn't want to and people were concerned about what would happen after Aerys died and it'd come to Rhaegel.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

That is an irrelevant comment. The point I'm making is that Stannis and Renly have powerful lordships in their own right which gave them a better powerbase than any other pretender to the Iron Throne previously had. All the other pretenders of history would have been in better positions than they were if they had been lords in their own right like Stannis and Renly. But most of them were not.

This is true for Renly. It's simply false for Stannis.  Dragonstone is not powerful by any stretch of imagination, its weakness is stated several times throughout the history of Westeros when it came to take the throne.

Dragonstone changes nothing for Daemon Blackfyre, it changes nothing for Aegon 2 (his power came entirely from the Hightowers), does nothing for Maegor.

The latter it's a glaring example, how Dragonstone is a better powerbase than Balerion? 

 

32 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

And even if they had gotten away somehow - without a seat of their own they would have been dependent on the mercy and support of others.

Just as either side was anyway??

 

[Lord Varys]

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

No, she would have view the one in charge as the savior. And she clearly believed it's Stannis regardless. 

LOL, just NO! Stannis being the Lord of Dragonstone is part of the reason - perhaps the only reason (we don't know) - why Mel thinks Stannis is her savior. If he were just somebody's servant - and that's what a castellan is - Mel would never look his way at all. Why should she? Because Stannis has such a winning personality?

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

It's still negligible when talking about taking the Throne. Dragonstone as base is simply a non starter.

They would have been in the same situation either way, if they are remotely similar. Not a threat at all, whatever threat they would pose would come from their alliances and how their achievement and position sway this people.

Dragonstone is a very strong castle and one of the greatest seats in the entire Realm.

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

He didn't want to and people were concerned about what would happen after Aerys died and it'd come to Rhaegel.

Stop making stuff up. A single hedge knight gives us his uneducated, uninformed view on the matter. That is not 'people'. Kyle the Cat made shit up.

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

This is true for Renly. It's simply false for Stannis.  Dragonstone is not powerful by any stretch of imagination, its weakness is stated several times throughout the history of Westeros when it came to take the throne.

Dragonstone is never called weak. And Stannis isn't weak in ACoK. He has enough troops to take the throne at the beginning of the war. He just doesn't have enough troops to hold it in a scenario where his enemies (mainly the Lannisters but also Renly who both have more troops than he has) do not accept his rise to the throne.

In a scenario where there are no pretenders backed by Highgarden and Casterly Rock a pretender from Dragonstone could easily take the throne and hold it - especially if he were to win Highgarden and Casterly Rock to his side.

Nobody ever said that Dragonstone puts you in the position to take on the Reach or the Westerlands without dragons. But it gives you certainly enough power to start a war and perhaps even conquer some territory.

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

Dragonstone changes nothing for Daemon Blackfyre, it changes nothing for Aegon 2 (his power came entirely from the Hightowers), does nothing for Maegor.

Dragonstone certainly would have changed things for Daemon Blackfyre. It would have strengthened his position even further. But Daemon Blackfyre's nearly succeeding at his rebellion was also due to Daeron II's relative weakness in the martial department as well as the lies about his parentage, etc.

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

The latter it's a glaring example, how Dragonstone is a better powerbase than Balerion? 

Maegor would have profited had he not been an exile when King Aenys died and instead been the Prince of Dragonstone or a lord in his own right. That he could he succeed to the throne was mostly due to the help of his mother and the fact that there was a power vacuum at court with Aegon the Uncrowned not being able to get to the Iron Throne before Maegor.

Also, Maegor did have Dragonstone before he took the Iron Throne and KL. His troops when taking and fortifying the city come in part from Dragonstone.

3 minutes ago, frenin said:

Just as either side was anyway??

Well, no. It is a difference if you can go to your own fortified castle protected by your own sworn men or if you have to beg one of your friends to take you in. In the latter scenario you are just a landless, helpless beggar, basically, sort of Rhaenyra is after she flees KL.

Daemon Blackfyre was basically just a glorified princely beggar. He had his delusions about his claim to the throne, but no actual bannermen who were sworn to follow him regardless whether he wanted to seize the Iron Throne or not. That is a disadvantage because it means that your people are more likely to abandon you when the tides of war turn against you.

But a lord in his own right can say 'Well, okay, I bend the knee to my royal brother, cousin, whatever, but I continue as Lord of X and you continue to serve me as is your duty as my bannermen and retainers.' That's not something a landless prince can do.

We see this pretty much with the Starks in the story. The 'King in the North and King of the Trident' thing may have died with Robb, but the Starks still enjoy a lot of support among the Northern lords (just as the Tullys do in the Riverlands) because those lands are traditionally ruled by men from those houses.

It is much more easier to betray a landless pretender without a lordship.

[The Merling King]

 

7 hours ago, frenin said:

Even, Bloodraven attempts to take Egg as hostage to keep Maekar in check and stops himself once he's warned that that would indeed have the opposite effect.

I agree Bloodraven was cautious with Dunk and Egg for fear of upsetting or provoking Maekar to leave Summerhall. I don’t believe Maekar would have rebelled against his older brother and even if Bloodraven took Egg to court as a hostage, I doubt it would come to war because King Aerys would probably just put his foot down on the rare occasion and tell Bryden to send him home like he told them Bittersreel was going to the wall and not the block.

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Even, Bloodraven attempts to take Egg as hostage to keep Maekar in check and stops himself once he's warned that that would indeed have the opposite effect.

I think If king Aerys predeceased Rhaegel or Aelor, Meakar might take issue with bloodraven trying to become regent for his mentally ill brother or minor nephew. Summerhall would give hime a power base but as stated, we don’t know anything about the lands, manpower or defensibility if the castle. Maekar would probably need to make alliances dependent on his military record and the general dislike of Bloodraven. 

[The Merling King]

Viserys II was made pretty powerful by Aegon III and basically helped rule and keep things together for his brother and nephews. He also might have poisoned his crazy nephew and pretty much skipped over his three nieces to take the iron throne without the need of a great council.

[frenin]

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

LOL, just NO! Stannis being the Lord of Dragonstone is part of the reason - perhaps the only reason (we don't know) - why Mel thinks Stannis is her savior. If he were just somebody's servant - and that's what a castellan is - Mel would never look his way at all. Why should she? Because Stannis has such a winning personality?

No, IIRC Meli says that she went to Dragonstone because she felt the savior would be there and once she was there her flames told her it was Stannis.

It had nothing to do with her personality or whether Stannis is a servant or not but what the flames told her.

 

 

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dragonstone is never called weak. And Stannis isn't weak in ACoK. He has enough troops to take the throne at the beginning of the war. He just doesn't have enough troops to hold it in a scenario where his enemies (mainly the Lannisters but also Renly who both have more troops than he has) do not accept his rise to the throne.

Dragonstone's  weakness is addressed ad nauseam in the saga and it's also addressed during the Dance of dragons.

Dragonstone alone is not enough to overcome the strength of king's Landing, let alone facing other Great Lords.

 

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

In a scenario where there are no pretenders backed by Highgarden and Casterly Rock a pretender from Dragonstone could easily take the throne and hold it - especially if he were to win Highgarden and Casterly Rock to his side.

No, Dragonstone couldn't. Neither easily nor with much difficulty.

Dragonstone has at the very best some 4k leavies, the Crownlands have more levies, the Gold Cloaks have another sizable force (relatively to Dragonstone) and the city and castle are force multipliers. 

 

 

9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

if Rhaenyra hadn't had a seat of her own and had lived at court then Otto and Criston Cole would have just arrested her and Daemon and her children along with all the other Blacks at court they arrested.

They could pull that off precisely because they weren't at court. With them at court, Otto's authority is lesser (Ned could tell you about that). It would come to whomever acted faster and had more firepower. The Gold Cloaks were Daemon's and Daemon's only so...

 

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Maegor would have profited had he not been an exile when King Aenys died and instead been the Prince of Dragonstone or a lord in his own right. That he could he succeed to the throne was mostly due to the help of his mother and the fact that there was a power vacuum at court with Aegon the Uncrowned not being able to get to the Iron Throne before Maegor.

Also, Maegor did have Dragonstone before he took the Iron Throne and KL. His troops when taking and fortifying the city come in part from Dragonstone.

Would he?? It came to dragons and his prowess with the sword at the end of the day. He was going to succeed because he counted with the biggest dragons by a good margin and he was ready to use it against his kin to gain the throne.

 

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dragonstone certainly would have changed things for Daemon Blackfyre. It would have strengthened his position even further. But Daemon Blackfyre's nearly succeeding at his rebellion was also due to Daeron II's relative weakness in the martial department as well as the lies about his parentage, etc.

Unless it comes with enough troops not really. We're talking about lordship over Dragonstone, not being its Prince.

Daemon didn't need Dragonstone, he forge alliances and friendships that proved crutial.

 

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, no. It is a difference if you can go to your own fortified castle protected by your own sworn men or if you have to beg one of your friends to take you in. In the latter scenario you are just a landless, helpless beggar, basically, sort of Rhaenyra is after she flees KL.

If you desperately need  their help to take or retain the Throne you're a beggar either way. 

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

But a lord in his own right can say 'Well, okay, I bend the knee to my royal brother, cousin, whatever, but I continue as Lord of X and you continue to serve me as is your duty as my bannermen and retainers.' That's not something a landless prince can do.

That's not something up to the Lord on his own right either. It's entirely up to the King, whether accept the surrender or whether to simply do what Bloodraven wanted to do.

 

8 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Daemon Blackfyre was basically just a glorified princely beggar. He had his delusions about his claim to the throne, but no actual bannermen who were sworn to follow him regardless whether he wanted to seize the Iron Throne or not. That is a disadvantage because it means that your people are more likely to abandon you when the tides of war turn against you

Your people are more likely to abandon you when the tides turn against you, whether they were sworn to follow him for a year or for a millennia.

 

 

[Lord Varys]

8 hours ago, The Merling King said:

I think If king Aerys predeceased Rhaegel or Aelor, Meakar might take issue with bloodraven trying to become regent for his mentally ill brother or minor nephew. Summerhall would give hime a power base but as stated, we don’t know anything about the lands, manpower or defensibility if the castle. Maekar would probably need to make alliances dependent on his military record and the general dislike of Bloodraven. 

That certainly is possible, although we don't really know if Maekar had issues with Bloodraven, personally (when he took the throne he kept him as Hand, so I daresay the chances for that are not that high). Rather, it seems Maekar had issues with Aerys I because the king decided to make Bloodraven Hand rather than Maekar. Kind of like Stannis was pissed at Robert when Robert chose Ned as new Hand rather than Stannis. Stannis also didn't like Ned for that, of course, but his big issue would have been with Robert.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

No, IIRC Meli says that she went to Dragonstone because she felt the savior would be there and once she was there her flames told her it was Stannis.

It had nothing to do with her personality or whether Stannis is a servant or not but what the flames told her.

You are wrong, Mel never much elaborates on this. She never tells us why she thinks Stannis, specifically, is the savior. Jon and she sort of talk the prophecy once and there it appears that Mel's big reason is that Stannis is Lord of Dragonstone ... and then Jon points out that he wasn't born there but at Storm's End like his brothers.

In light of that, Mel would likely view any Lord of Dragonstone who isn't Stannis when she gets there as the savior. If Robert had named Joff or Tommen Lord or Prince of Dragonstone, then she would have assumed they are the savior - especially since as Robert's children they would also have had Targaryen blood, at least theoretically.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Dragonstone's  weakness is addressed ad nauseam in the saga and it's also addressed during the Dance of dragons.

Dragonstone alone is not enough to overcome the strength of king's Landing, let alone facing other Great Lords.

Dragonstone alone is enough for Stannis in ACoK. He has his own bannermen, he has the royal fleet, and as a lord in his own right he has the money to hire sellsails like Salladhor Saan and the Myrmen. He had the strength to take KL, he just didn't do it because Mel told him if he did it Renly would take him in the rear.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

No, Dragonstone couldn't. Neither easily nor with much difficulty.

Dragonstone has at the very best some 4k leavies, the Crownlands have more levies, the Gold Cloaks have another sizable force (relatively to Dragonstone) and the city and castle are force multipliers. 

There is no indication that folks believe in ACoK KL could repel Stannis just with the strength of the Crownlands alone.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

They could pull that off precisely because they weren't at court. With them at court, Otto's authority is lesser (Ned could tell you about that). It would come to whomever acted faster and had more firepower. The Gold Cloaks were Daemon's and Daemon's only so...

Otto and Alicent also imprisoned the Blacks at court and staged their coup. If Rhaenyra and Daemon had just been residents at court and not involved in the government of the Realm they could have been arrested in their beds like so many other Blacks.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Would he?? It came to dragons and his prowess with the sword at the end of the day. He was going to succeed because he counted with the biggest dragons by a good margin and he was ready to use it against his kin to gain the throne.

Balerion played no role in getting Maegor on the throne aside from the fact that he was a good means of transportation. Maegor arrived on Dragonstone and people fell in line after he executed the Grand Maester and then he pressed on to KL and won his Trial of Seven. Balerion played no role there.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Unless it comes with enough troops not really. We're talking about lordship over Dragonstone, not being its Prince.

The Prince of Dragonstone was also the Lord of Dragonstone, at least since Jaehaerys I named Aemon Prince of Dragonstone.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Daemon didn't need Dragonstone, he forge alliances and friendships that proved crutial.

I didn't say he needed a lordship like Dragonstone, I said he would have profited from being such a lord. That is undeniable.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

If you desperately need  their help to take or retain the Throne you're a beggar either way. 

It is still a difference if you are a homeless beggar or a person who still has a castle they can get to.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

That's not something up to the Lord on his own right either. It's entirely up to the King, whether accept the surrender or whether to simply do what Bloodraven wanted to do.

Compromises are reached all the time, even Bloodraven didn't kill all the supporters of Daemon II - nor the man himself, actually. I mean, look at Aegon II's offer to Rhaenyra - he offered her to keep Dragonstone, her own lordship, if she accepted him as her king. Tywin and Stannis could have reached a similar understanding after the Blackwater, or Renly and Stannis could have reached such an understanding with each other. That's how politics work.

But if you are just a poor guy without castle or lands, if all you have is your family tree and your beliefs that you are entitled to a crown then you have nothing of substance to offer. No real powerbase.

2 hours ago, frenin said:

Your people are more likely to abandon you when the tides turn against you, whether they were sworn to follow him for a year or for a millennia.

That is clearly not the case for the Starks at this point. If Robb had come to his kingship simply on the basis of having some royal blood and being a great general or warrior without actually being a lord, it would have been much easier for his followers to defect to the winning side because they were not, traditionally, sworn to follow him.

[frenin]

This will likely be my last reply since this conversations start boring far sooner than before, feel free to reply tho. 

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You are wrong, Mel never much elaborates on this. She never tells us why she thinks Stannis, specifically, is the savior. Jon and she sort of talk the prophecy once and there it appears that Mel's big reason is that Stannis is Lord of Dragonstone ... and then Jon points out that he wasn't born there but at Storm's End like his brothers.

In light of that, Mel would likely view any Lord of Dragonstone who isn't Stannis when she gets there as the savior. If Robert had named Joff or Tommen Lord or Prince of Dragonstone, then she would have assumed they are the savior - especially since as Robert's children they would also have had Targaryen blood, at least theoretically.

Mel doesn't say or implies that she gave a damn about Stannis being the Lord of Dragonstone. It is Jon who mentions the Lordship at all. But she does say having seen Stannis,  in her flames.

Nor does Meli seem  to care about Targ blood.

 

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Dragonstone alone is enough for Stannis in ACoK. He has his own bannermen, he has the royal fleet, and as a lord in his own right he has the money to hire sellsails like Salladhor Saan and the Myrmen. He had the strength to take KL, he just didn't do it because Mel told him if he did it Renly would take him in the rear.

It certainly isn't. And wer're told this plainly.

 

Quote

No, Cressen thought, a man like that would give no false hope, nor soften a hard truth. “Ser Davos, truth can be a bitter draught, even for a man like Lord Stannis. He thinks only of returning to King’s Landing in the fullness of his power, to tear down his enemies and claim what is rightfully his. Yet now …” “If he takes this meagre host to King’s Landing, it will be only to die. He does not have the numbers. I told him as much, but you know his pride.” Davos held up his gloved hand. “My fingers will grow back before that man bends to sense.”

 

He didn't do it because it was suicidal and even him knew that which is why he is so desperate in the prologue.

The Royal 

 

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

There is no indication that folks believe in ACoK KL could repel Stannis just with the strength of the Crownlands alone.

The aforementioned quote is enough but let's make some easy maths.

The defenses of King's Landing was numbered in 7-8k men. That's around the same men Stannis might have had, being  very generous.

 

Quote

That paltry rabble I see there huddled under the castle walls? I’ll call them five thousand and be generous, codfish lords and onion knights and sellswords. Half of them are like to come over to me before the battle starts.

There's no possible way for Stannis to break through the city's defenses.

 

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Otto and Alicent also imprisoned the Blacks at court and staged their coup. If Rhaenyra and Daemon had just been residents at court and not involved in the government of the Realm they could have been arrested in their beds like so many other Blacks.

They did so because they were the only power left in King's Landing. They took advntage of the power vacuum left by Viserys's death and Rhaenrya's and Daemon's  absence. And given the city watch's loyalties, they would simply be overwhelmed. There's always the possibility for 

By the start Rhaenrya would have been alerted of her father was dying, which means that the Blacksin the castle would have also been alerted, and they were a lot, when put between the words of Rhaenrya and Otto, who do they follow??

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That paltry rabble I see there huddled under the castle walls? I’ll call them five thousand and be generous, codfish lords and onion knights and sellswords. Half of them are like to come over to me before the battle starts.

And they are ignored all the time too. Else there wouldn't be so many Houses being violently ended. It's up to the ruler to wage whether the compromise suits them or nor. The coin landedin a favorable side for the Boltins but it didn't for the Greystarks or the Reynes for example.

 

6 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

That is clearly not the case for the Starks at this point. If Robb had come to his kingship simply on the basis of having some royal blood and being a great general or warrior without actually being a lord, it would have been much easier for his followers to defect to the winning side because they were not, traditionally, sworn to follow him.

There were fellows that stiill were loyal to the Black Dragon's memory too.

The Red Wedding soured put the northeners against the Bolton and Lannisters. Had Robb being defeated in a more tradutional way, the transition would have been smoother.

[Leonardo]

I think even without a dragon Rhaenyra had more power than Stannis; she had the alliance with Driftmark, and the wealth and power of House Velaryon during this time can’t be overstated in comparison to dragonstone as a current day fief. Wealthier, but not more powerful than modern day stormlands to be sure. In hindsight this was sort of a bad move by Robert as Renly was going to cause a successio crisis regardless of the paternity of Joff if it meant Cersei was in power in KL.

[Leonardo]

On 8/6/2021 at 4:24 PM, frenin said:

No, she would have view the one in charge as the savior. And she clearly believed it's Stannis regardless. 

 

 

It's still negligible when talking about taking the Throne. Dragonstone as base is simply a non starter.

They would have been in the same situation either way, if they are remotely similar. Not a threat at all, whatever threat they would pose would come from their alliances and how their achievement and position sway this people.

 

 

He didn't want to and people were concerned about what would happen after Aerys died and it'd come to Rhaegel.

 

 

This is true for Renly. It's simply false for Stannis.  Dragonstone is not powerful by any stretch of imagination, its weakness is stated several times throughout the history of Westeros when it came to take the throne.

 

Dragonstone as a base is not a non starter.

 

If Stannis has landed at Kings Landing right after Ned is imprisoned, they take the city. It’s 2000 goldcloaks against his 5000 strong army of real knights and soldiers. Barristan and Jaime aren’t in KL anymore and Stannis can cordon off the city with his navy; that leaves the Hound as the only warrior of any real renown on the side of Kings Landing and whatever few knights remain. The red keeps walls are covered in hovels they can climb right over, and they’re coming from port’s side. They can take the city before they even know what’s really happening, and you can’t just stick all 2000 on the walls either, they’re there to police the city and will be scattered throughout. Cersei’s guardsmen are in the red keep. 
 

Mud gate falls and then it’s just a matter of what happens with Tywin, Robb and Roose’s forces. Jaime is still probably captured and if he DOES go for KL, Robb and then will be right behind him with more men than Tywin has and Stannis can just hop back into his boats. If it’s not Stannis and Robb then Renly makes his move earlier as there is no need to wait, but I don’t see Maegor’s holdfast lasting long, Stannis has the men to assault it, and would. Cersei has what, a hundred guardsmen, the only real soldiers in the city?

 

Tyrion has twice the goldcloaks, his chain, and has had time to shore up the defenses as well as sending his mountain clans to harass anyone coming up the kings road, and still barely manages to hold more than a few hours. Stannis and 5000 fighters take the city; that’s 1000 knights at the least.

 

So yeah that’s what dragonstone can do compared to Kings Landing as a fiefdom. If Stannis sent word to Robb or better yet was in possession of Ned, Robb is never crowned but has already defeated Jaime by this point. Check and mate. 

 

 

[Leonardo]

3 hours ago, frenin said:

 

The aforementioned quote is enough but let's make some easy maths.

The defenses of King's Landing was numbered in 7-8k men. That's around the same men Stannis might have had, being  very generous.

That's after Tyrion has rallied men to their cause; at the close of AGOT there are 2000 goldcloaks and 100 Lannister guardsmen. That's it. Stannis has 1000 knights alone and 4000 foot, and best yet he has Melisandre.

"Salladhor explains that one of his trading ships arrived from King's Landing with news that Tyrion Lannister is now overseeing the capital and has driven out Janos Slynt as commander of the City Watch. Davos asks how well the city is defended. Saan replies that the walls are strong, but defended only by the gold cloaks, who are too few and inexperienced. He urges a swift strike to take the city"

If you come BEFORE Tyrion does and rescue Ned, it's a huge power play. Hell you come after he's beheaded and until Tyrion gets there the city's defense is led by JANOS SLYNT. It falls within the hour, and then it's just those holding the keep. They don't even know when Stannis leaves the islands until it's too late and they're terrified he's coming to king's landing. They didn't know until Salladhor Saan returns just how undefended king's landing is.

[Lord Varys]

3 hours ago, Leonardo said:

That's after Tyrion has rallied men to their cause; at the close of AGOT there are 2000 goldcloaks and 100 Lannister guardsmen. That's it. Stannis has 1000 knights alone and 4000 foot, and best yet he has Melisandre.

"Salladhor explains that one of his trading ships arrived from King's Landing with news that Tyrion Lannister is now overseeing the capital and has driven out Janos Slynt as commander of the City Watch. Davos asks how well the city is defended. Saan replies that the walls are strong, but defended only by the gold cloaks, who are too few and inexperienced. He urges a swift strike to take the city"

If you come BEFORE Tyrion does and rescue Ned, it's a huge power play. Hell you come after he's beheaded and until Tyrion gets there the city's defense is led by JANOS SLYNT. It falls within the hour, and then it's just those holding the keep. They don't even know when Stannis leaves the islands until it's too late and they're terrified he's coming to king's landing. They didn't know until Salladhor Saan returns just how undefended king's landing is.

Stannis does have the numbers at the beginning of ACoK to take the city, that much is clear. Especially before Tyrion's arrivial and the entire wildfire-and-chain plan.

The City Watch aren't proper soldiers, and, as you say, there aren't any other proper soldiers inside the city. They might suffer considerable losses opening the gates, but you don't need 20,000 men to sack KL. Especially when the Kingslanders hate the Lannisters.

That said - that is only a relative weakness. Tywin is at Harrenhal with 20,000 proper soldiers and Renly is marching up the Roseroad with 100,000 men meaning Stannis cannot hope to hold the city if he were to take it.

But he certainly could take it - and he only has the power to start his campaign because he is a proper lord.

Even if we were to entertain the idea that Mel would have viewed a Stannis as her savior who wasn't the Lord of Dragonstone - which I don't - it would be very hard for such a Stannis to convince any lords and knights in the Realm that they should follow him. He would have no real powerbase, only his shitty personality and his story about the twincest. Stannis couldn't hire sellswords and sellsails, he couldn't even goad Renly into coming to him if he doesn't have the men to besiege Storm's End.

Mel being able to see the future and kill people at a distance isn't much of an advantage if you don't have the means to use her abilities to your own advantage. And a landless Stannis couldn't do that. Sorcery is like a dragon - you actually have to be smart and powerful to use it, else you end up like Nettles or Ulf White or Aemond - who arguable was the stupidest dragonrider out there. The entire character seems to be George's comment how useless the largest dragon in the world can be if her rider is a complete moron.

[The Merling King]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Sorcery is like a dragon - you actually have to be smart and powerful to use, else you end up like Nettles or Ulf White or Aemond - who arguable was the stupidest dragonrider out there. The entire character seems to be George's comment how useless the largest dragon in the world can be if her rider is a complete moron.

Aemond and Cole leaving KL to hunt Daemon and then Aemond leaving Cole to burn the Riverlands instead of linking up with the Hightower host and his fellow dragon riding brother are arguable the two stupidest decisions the greens make.

[The Merling King]

3 hours ago, Leonardo said:

 

I think even without a dragon Rhaenyra had more power than Stannis; she had the alliance with Driftmark, and the wealth and power of House Velaryon during this time can’t be overstated in comparison to dragonstone as a current day fief. Wealthier, but not more powerful than modern day stormlands to be sure. In hindsight this was sort of a bad move by Robert as Renly was going to cause a successio crisis regardless of the paternity of Joff if it meant Cersei was in power in KL.

 

Dragonstone and Driftmark had more power and prestige during the dance but if you remove the dragons from the equation, I think Rhaenyra would be in a similar situation to Stannis without Mel.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, The Merling King said:

Aemond and Cole leaving KL to hunt Daemon and then Aemond leaving Cole to burn the Riverlands instead of linking up with the Hightower host and his fellow dragon riding brother are arguable the two stupidest decisions the greens make.

The Cole/Aemond campaign was also stupid, showing how obsessed both men were with pointless 'payback' missions. Cole seemed more active that Otto Hightower but all his campaign were either pointless and/or risky and self-destructive. All he accomplished was to escalate the war.

But Aemond turning himself into an outlaw instead of using his dragon to actually raise troops and try to retake KL was utter nonsense.

1 hour ago, The Merling King said:

Dragonstone and Driftmark had more power and prestige during the dance but if you remove the dragons from the equation, I think Rhaenyra would be in a similar situation to Stannis without Mel.

Dragons aside, Rhaenyra and Stannis likely had had about the same naval strength. Rhaenyra had the Velaryon fleet, and Stannis had the royal fleet plus his Lysene and Myrish sellsails.

I guess Corlys' gigantic wealth and the prosperity of Driftmark in that era increased the number of troops the Velaryon's could raise, but I don't think Rhaenyra had much more troops than Stannis had originally (i.e. in the Prologue of ACoK).

[frenin]

10 hours ago, Leonardo said:

If Stannis has landed at Kings Landing right after Ned is imprisoned, they take the city. It’s 2000 goldcloaks against his 5000 strong army of real knights and soldiers. Barristan and Jaime aren’t in KL anymore and Stannis can cordon off the city with his navy; that leaves the Hound as the only warrior of any real renown on the side of Kings Landing and whatever few knights remain. The red keeps walls are covered in hovels they can climb right over, and they’re coming from port’s side. They can take the city before they even know what’s really happening, and you can’t just stick all 2000 on the walls either, they’re there to police the city and will be scattered throughout. Cersei’s guardsmen are in the red keep. 

Most of those 5k soldiers are neither real knights nor soldiers, but whatever. If the soldiers are alerted of Stannis's coming, he's not taking the city. He simply can't overrun the defenses of the city. We are told as much, Stannis knows as much.

You can very much stick most of the gold cloaks in the walls in case of war.

 

Quote

Tyrion has twice the goldcloaks, his chain, and has had time to shore up the defenses as well as sending his mountain clans to harass anyone coming up the kings road, and still barely manages to hold more than a few hours. Stannis and 5000 fighters take the city; that’s 1000 knights at the least.

Because Stannis this time does have the numbers to overrun the city's defenses. There's no clever there, just pure numbers. 5000 men are just too few, we're told as much.

 

10 hours ago, Leonardo said:

So yeah that’s what dragonstone can do compared to Kings Landing as a fiefdom. 

King's Landing is not only the Gold Cloaks, it's the entirety of the Crownlands. 

I don't why this is a discussion, it's stated clearly that Stannis cannot overcome King's Landing in the prologue and we see later that the Crownlands muster a greater force that Stannis had at the beginning.

 

 

10 hours ago, Leonardo said:

If you come BEFORE Tyrion does and rescue Ned, it's a huge power play. Hell you come after he's beheaded and until Tyrion gets there the city's defense is led by JANOS SLYNT. It falls within the hour

It really doesn't, all great seats are notably force multipliers when defended, It took grievous losses to take Dragonstone, it was not a sure thing that Stannis could take Storm's End by force, the diseased and hungry ironborn were able to repeal the northmen time after time in the ruins of Moat Cailin etc etc etc. 2000  people to defend the city walls is a lot of people unless you have a lot of men to negate those numbers.

And Slynt is so far i can tell described as a corrupt, murderer, not as an totally incompetent corrupt murderer, so him being in charge changes little imo.