Jump to content

Covid-19 #36: I am the Apples and the Oranges


Fragile Bird

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Kaligator said:

It's a 10% rate in aggregate difference, but a  MASSIVE difference in region. We go from almost 80% vaccination rate in some places to just above 30 in others. I don't think that the UK is that heterogeneous in vaccination because the US has to be fucking special as always

It is much closer in the UK, among the regions the lowest % for first dose in adults is 80% for London and the highest is 92%, which is a bit of a difference but nothing compared to the US figures.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Kaligator said:

How are you factoring in the more contagious and more dangerous delta variant?

If I were cynical, I'd say it's actually a good thing in the long run, as far as fighting against covid and increasing vaccination rate are concerned, because this might push to vaccinate young people and might convince some idiots to get vaxxed before they infect their kids. But then it'd be of course a terrible thing as long as the kids aren't properly vaccinated. There's no true winning move for now, since we can't force the vaccine on every person on the planet in the next couple of weeks.

4 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

 It also appears to move a lot faster than alpha, which is providing these massive huge spikes and then a huge drop off as it runs out of fuel. 

Key reason why I tend to think this won't last 40 years, nor even 4 years of massive restrictions and lockdowns. Some kind of immunity against delta will be hit quite soon. And the latest variants spread so fast and are so infectious I don't think there's much room for improvement on this front; let's see if the virus mutates in other functions.

3 hours ago, Kaligator said:

But sure, Delta isn't more dangerous, riiight

If most of daily new cases are unvaccinated, there's no reason to see a massive drop in fatality rate. The only reason it would significantly drop is younger age of infected people. Of course, if 3/4 of these new cases are fully vaccinated people, then there's a serious problem.

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

(It will be interesting to see what happens to places like Romania, which have terrible vaccination rates but Delta hasn't got on fire there yet).

I really don't want to see how badly it'll go there, because it will be brutal... As for Czechia, they got hit so insanely badly last fall and winter and have one of the highest death ratios per population; either there's some degree of immunity across vast parts of the population, or some kind of natural selection already took its toll; or merely seasonal effect, since it's sunny and warm there right now, unlike other parts of Europe.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Our return-to-office in late September is probably under threat now, even though only vaccinated employers would be allowed into the office.  We’ll get the official news next week, but that’s how it seems to be trending.

I'm not expecting lockdowns, but I won't be surprised if all of the tables and chairs that got put back in 2019 set ups in the dining halls gets broken down again to allow distancing at the University.  We're already wearing masks again, and I believe all students do have to be vaccinated to return to campus.

However, as everyone is treating things like its 2019 again anyway despite the changes Covid has wrought to the service industry and supply chain, that I'm almost....almost...wishing for some sort of slow down...it's not going to be pretty in a couple weeks when school opens again, regardless of what Delta does to the situation on the ground...but that's a different topic I think....

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Jaxom 1974 said:

I'm not expecting lockdowns, but I won't be surprised if all of the tables and chairs that got put back in 2019 set ups in the dining halls gets broken down again to allow distancing at the University.  We're already wearing masks again, and I believe all students do have to be vaccinated to return to campus.

It's crazy how quickly that flipped. Literally on the same day the hospital allowed all vaccinated staff to ditch the masks so long as we weren't with patients the CDC came out and said it may have dropped the ball when telling people they weren't needed indoors anymore. Thankfully we went back to mask wearing last week, but people are already fed up with the new policy and ignoring it, which was entirely predictable. 

And I agree, once schools reopen there's a very good chance we'll see spikes nationwide. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 hours ago, Iskaral Pust said:

Our return-to-office in late September is probably under threat now, even though only vaccinated employers would be allowed into the office.  We’ll get the official news next week, but that’s how it seems to be trending.

Our employees were just told it was going to go out to January (September was the target date all through summer), and rescinded any approvals for in person gatherings/meetings over 10 people.  There are options to go in and work at the office, but it’s all solo, and masks and 6 foot distancing are required if you are interacting.  It’s a blanket requirement for the company, which makes sense for healthcare workers and not creating staffing issues via work transmission.  But it’s another punt for the admin staff, some of whom hate WFH and don’t have good home office setups.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Potentially another case of good luck not good management [edit] hopefully.

https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126021135/covid19-nearly-all-tauranga-port-workers-test-negative-wastewater-testing-under-way-victim-blaming-and-abuse-not-helpful

Quote

Covid-19: Nearly all Tauranga port workers test negative

All but one of the 110 Covid-19 swabs collected from Tauranga port workers involved with a ship that carried 11 Covid-positive crew members, have come back negative, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says.

The samples were collected from people in and around the Port of Tauranga on Monday after crew were involved in unloading the container ship, Rio de la Plata, which was cleared to dock at the port last week.

Apparently, the ship was known to ba a risk before it docked, and health staff went on board to test crew members. But the decisionn was to allow dock workers on board to unload anyway.

Other reports saying a large proportion of dock workers are resisting getting vaccination because of the usual misinformation. And despite mandatory vaccination for all people working at the border (find a different job if you don;t want to be vaccinated), almost all of those workers are unvaccinated. The mandate only came in about a month or so ago, but still since February it has been the intention to get all border workers vaccinated. Of course the need to legally manadate vaccination arose precisely because so many border workers were dragging their feet.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The campus I work at is requiring "vaccinations or registered exceptions" for both students and staff, and it has gone back to requiring masks for everyone (unless alone in a closed workspace) and requesting people eat outside, weather permitting. It's fairly easy to have a registered exception--you just go in and say (or lie) that you have a religious exemption, no paperwork required.

I'm not sure the extent masking is actually being enforced, since I've been remote since last March and will be through at least Thanksgiving, it sounds like.

Masking in stores is about at 30% here, but growing. At gymnastics practice, it was just me. And of course, the largest percentage of people in the gym are kids under 12. Right now the warehouse doors are all open and the 6'x6' fans are going hard all the time, but I suspect I'll have to make some decisions about continuing to go soon, since I don't see them moving back to having athletes mask again unless there's a state mandate--and then I doubt they'll really enforce much beyond a paper policy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 hours ago, Padraig said:

Edited to add:  Delta is weird.  While cases have risen in Germany, it hasn't been over-run like France, the UK or Spain.  Its vaccination rate isn't better.  Maybe restrictions are higher?  Or better observed?  I don't really understand.  And Eastern/Central Europe is generally doing well.  The Czechs have seen declines over the last 3 weeks and their positivity rate is 0.5%.  But their vaccination rate is lower than the US!  ourorldindata says that 95% of their cases is Delta.

So I can honestly say, I can understand what is going on in the US and Western Europe but Eastern/Central Europe is very surprising.  (Canada to some degree too but its vaccination rate is very high).

Keep in mind, North and South Dakota and saw almost nothing until the last 4 months of 2020, by the end of the year they had some of the highest per/capita infection totals in the US. If you're looking at an area and asking, "why hasn't it hit there yet?', give it time. There's also a question of what kind of reporting they're actually doing at the moment.

In Canada we're doing OK. The only problem is vaccination rates among specific age cohorts are still kinda low. Where I am, 35-40% of 20-29 year olds haven't gotten their first shot yet, and that's slowed to a crawl. If that trend persists, delta is going to rip through colleges and universities throughout my province when school starts next month. Hopefully they're waiting until l the summer is over to get poked, but who knows?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, maarsen said:

Evolution in humans has never stopped. In prior pandemics,a lucky genetic difference separated those that lived and those that died. Now the selection method seems to be based on the ability to read and understand the basics of epidemiology and/or science. If you have the mindset, however aquired, of distrust of science, then I guess you will be on the wrong side of a great filter. One can only hope this improves the species.

You seem to have a extremely limited understanding of evolution, specially in a specie that has used technology for millennia to adapt the environment to them. Sometimes the one-odd behavior has saved species.

Regarding the evolution of the virus. I want to say this. What we are doing has never been tried before. Trying to end a pandemic via vaccination. Might be the right approach, might be hubris.

We may drive the virus onto the Muller's ratchet or create a nightmare like the Marek's disease.

If someone tells you that any of these outcomes are impossible, he/she is lying because we really don't know.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The only human disease that's ever been eradicated is smallpox*, and that was only possible with vaccination. So that's on the plus side.

On the minus side, the only disease in humans that's ever been eradicated is smallpox despite there being vaccines for a whole bunch of other diseases.

*I guess SARS1 and MERS have been eradicated(?), but they were caught early before they could establish as endemic.

3 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

You seem to have a extremely limited understanding of evolution, specially in a specie that has used technology for millennia to adapt the environment to them. Sometimes the one-odd behavior has saved species.

Regarding the evolution of the virus. I want to say this. What we are doing has never been tried before. Trying to end a pandemic via vaccination. Might be the right approach, might be hubris.

We may drive the virus onto the Muller's ratchet or create a nightmare like the Marek's disease.

If someone tells you that any of these outcomes are impossible, he/she is lying because we really don't know.

It's in herpes virus' nature to create carrier states. It's not really in coronavirus' nature to create carrier states.

I am guessing you are not going so far as to say we should not be looking to use vaccination to help deal with this pandemic.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Keep in mind, North and South Dakota and saw almost nothing until the last 4 months of 2020, by the end of the year they had some of the highest per/capita infection totals in the US. If you're looking at an area and asking, "why hasn't it hit there yet?', give it time. There's also a question of what kind of reporting they're actually doing at the moment.

That's fair.  I don't remember Germany been out of line with other western European countries previously but I could have forgotten.  Or other factors could be in play this time.  

Canada and Germany are actually behaving quite similarly COVID data wise (except Canada has done better vaccinating).

Central/Eastern European has been out of line with Western Europe, so the Dakota example works even better there.  I suppose there is an argument that Delta hitting in summer is better than hitting in Autumn.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Lots of schools are opening today, and on the news they had reporters interviewing parents in Florida as they brought their kids to school. The number of parents saying wearing masks is the real danger was staggering. 

There could be some very real and very ugly cultural Darwinism unfolding soon in the red states/counties. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Padraig said:

That's fair.  I don't remember Germany been out of line with other western European countries previously but I could have forgotten.  Or other factors could be in play this time.  

Canada and Germany are actually behaving quite similarly COVID data wise (except Canada has done better vaccinating).

Central/Eastern European has been out of line with Western Europe, so the Dakota example works even better there.  I suppose there is an argument that Delta hitting in summer is better than hitting in Autumn.

Delta will definitly hit Germany in autumn. Its not here now because of seasonal effects, but really everybody expects and says that it will come full force in October. so that would be enough time to get everyone vaccinated BUT somehow some people dont get it. There are ONLY 80 % of the over 60 year old fully vaccinated (85 % partly), no idea what the other 20% are thinking (and no one can say in October they didnt know).

I also think these wave pattern in which Coronavirus infections are growing and slowing and growing again in different nations quite interesting. It  looks  like algae growth pattern in water or similar biological effects. It must be a mixture of seasonal effects  and ever changing human behavior which leads to these waves and the timeline of their growth.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

27 minutes ago, Iskaral Pust said:

There could be some very real and very ugly cultural Darwinism unfolding soon in the red states/counties. 

As I said before, I’d be curious to know what was the bigger motivator for some conservative leaders to change their tune, the fear of the economy tanking due to another semi-shutdown or that their voters are disproportionally dying off?

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

I will add that from the standpoint of an observer of the service industry (I eat inside at a restaurant every single day, average tab $75), restaurants have slowed down significantly in the fine dining and upscale casual segments. Example: I used to wait for an hour or more for a bar seat at Houston’s for one, back in June; it is now immediate seating. 

ETA - I WILL NOT envision cooking for myself again. That sucked, during the pandemic; between burning myself and cutting myself, I am really not to be allowed in a kitchen. Also, my cooking sucks. Good thing I can do accounting!

Sorry to ask a mostly off-topic question, but you really spend $75 a day for LUNCH in a restaurant on average? Meaning half of the time it's more than $75? Is that just for you, or are you usually paying for the lunch(es) of clients? Do you pay this out of your own salary or do you have an expense account for it? I find this a bit mind-boggling.

As for cooking -- during the pandemic (and while losing weight) I did way more of my own meal preparation than I'd done in years. I found that I really like potatos "baked" in the microwave and hamburgers or pork chops cooked in an electric skillet or chicken breasts and fish baked in the oven, all usually with just a bit of seasoned salt. If you do simple things like that, I would think almost anyone can cook adequately. 

I walk through the Omaha zoo for exercise six days a week -- have been going through the zoo itself instead of just the parking lot for about two months now. The last week or so the % of zoo visitors wearing masks has gone up, but I think it's still only about 10%. Unfortunately, that figure doesn't go up much for visitors when they go inside a building at the zoo. As a fully vaccinated person, I don't wear a mask outdoors at the zoo but the last week I have been putting one on when I enter a building there. I'm getting worried that the zoo may be a place where the Delta variant can spread among the unvaccinated -- of course there are lots of small children during the summer, and I am sure many visitors from smaller towns that have way lower vaccination rates than Omaha itself does. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
×
×
  • Create New...