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The Yronwood Dilemma


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On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I don't think were going to get much more milage out of the conversation about dornish climate. we've gone back and forth on that one like seven times now. I still don't think that if she invades that she would use the passes and and I feel I have been very clear on that. if she has a fleet she would use it to invade there by sea, but more like dorne will make common cause with her. if not I do think you should acknowledge that Dany would wage war there to keep the kingdom united and any opposition repressed, just as you claim she will in the free cities.

The passes thing is just a point of discussion if we assume Daenerys would continue to the rest of Westeros after she has conquered Dorne.

But then - trying to conquer Dorne of all places is silly if you don't have the Iron Throne already, because Dorne has nothing to offer and its Sands are usually a grave for foreign invaders.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

you seem awfully quick to use the show as evidence for Dany gaining an army of all the Dothraki for someone so dismissive of the destruction at the spet of baelor. I also don't see there being many other Dothraki is vaas Dothrak compared to danys wedding, or the willingness of every khal to submit to her even with the support of the dash khaleen.

As I said, it is not just the show but the vision in the House of the Undying. Considering that the show basically made nothing out of Daenerys ruling all the Dothraki - which would have given her hundreds of thousands of warriors - I daresay that's a plot point taken from the books which was then not continued in the show.

The Sept of Baelor cannot be destroyed by a wildfire explosion like it was in the show because there is no longer any wildfire hidden beneath the Great Sept. In the books, we hear that King Aerys' fruits hidden beneath the Great Sept and the Dragonpit were found.

Not to mention that Cersei has no control over or knowledge about the wildfire and that Varys - who may know or suspect where some of the missing wildfire is - would never help Cersei or allow her to blow up the Great Sept.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I think the north will do better than most this winter. we know snow is planning to take out a bravosi loan, so long as bravos is not destroyed, that should sustain them and if anyone is used to hunting or fishing in winter or keeping a large stockpiles of food, I would expect it to be the Northerners. 

Money does not translate directly into food. And Tycho Nestoris has yet to return to Braavos with the contracts. If he doesn't Jon won't get any money.

Food would have to be shipped to the North, and then handed out to the people. Jon might be able to feed the folks at the Wall due to the harbor at Eastwatch, but it shouldn't be possible to move food further inland when the snow starts to block the roads.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

at some point dany will need to deal with them, and the potential of Jons army is more frightening than you may think. besides his northmen and river knights, he will have giants, mammoths, and the wolves army of Nymeria, probably. if he can hold on long enough, his now claim to the north only becomes stronger, while Dany looks all the less the queen.

Again, chances are very low that the Riverlords will ever acknowledge Jon Snow as their king. Most giants are dead, and the mammoths cannot pass through the Wall.

And, no, Daenerys has no need to ever deal with the North. She can watch the Others and wights butcher the Northmen if she is so inclined. Or she could just wait for spring to deal with the survivors of winter then. The Northmen will never be a threat to Daenerys' rule in the south if she could take the Iron Throne.

They are down to about 10,000 men ... and that was before the battles at Winterfell between Stannis and the Boltons, before another wildling attack under the Weeper, before serious winter starvation, before the fall of the Wall.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I'd be surprised if stannis was around that much longer, and since he has been gone Jon has more or less become king beyond the wall by having the wildlings submit to him. his watch has ended so now his kingship must begin and that means stannis cannot be to long for this world. the northerners will betray him just as his historical basis was betrayed.

Not sure why Jon has to become a king. Not sure why Stannis should die quickly, either. Shireen isn't with him at the moment, and if the show gave us anything then that Stannis is going to burn his only child.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

dragon or no, Dany is still a woman. unless they witness a miracle like her ko did they will just see her as a dragon rider. that is an intimidating thing, but historically not unique. Some will follow her, I have no doubt, but I imagine many others won't. 

They don't have to see the miracle to realize she pulled off a miracle. Dragons were extinct and she brought them back. She isn't just a dragonrider, she is the Mother of Dragons.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

and while it would be nice if those slave populations could handle such a transition, Astapor and Meereen, even ignoring outside pressure, were a mess filled with treachery and the potential for revolt. unless there are more dragon riders on danys side, it will be too difficult to police such a large real even with dragons. sailing from kl to pentos takes what like 3-5 days at best. dragons can fly a while, but not forever, nor can a human easily deal with that much exposure. they would have to stop regularly on small islands, and this still creates the problem of Dany traveling alone and far constantly which is exhausting and dangerous.

They can kill all the opposition, no? I mean, what do you think is going to happen to the Yunkai'i and the non-reformed Meereenese? They will all be put down, of course.

And the slaves of Volantis and the other Free Cities will also butcher their elites in the coming revolution(s).

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

as to Aegon, I just don't see him having the forces any time soon to be able to take kings landing. he has 10000 men now at best with the golden company and some small lords following him. overcoming the Tyrells and Lannisters will be difficult to say the least, as will taking kings landing. If he took kings landing and was established in power before Dany arrived, I imagine he would just try to marry her. 

Aegon has to defeat the Tyrell army, but after that he will have KL. Varys will see to it that the Kingslanders welcome him like Larys Strong had them welcome the Lads.

It would be difficult for the Golden Company and Aegon's other allies from the Stormlands to defeat the Reach army, but not impossible. Smaller armies can and have defeated larger armies. Also, there are still Targaryen loyalists in the Reach. They might not be keen to fight against Aegon. They could defect or refuse to fight. That would be enough.

And then there are the Dornish armies which could come to Aegon's help.

And stop talking about the Lannisters as if they were a factor in KL. They are not. There are no Lannister armies there, just a few hundred guardsmen.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

But shad was looking for sansa, so we can assume she is his target. he was just at the tourney for the prizes and ransoms and found her by chance. remember when Shadrich replies that a good melee is all a hedge knight can hope for, unless he stumbles upon a "bag of dragons."

He definitely seemed to be looking for her (at least that's what he told Brienne) ... but the idea that his plan is to personally abduct Sansa is silly. He could not possibly do that on his own.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Jamie says that, yeah, but he lead them all just a little while ago when taking river run and raven tree hall. his cousin is the one commanding them, but he will listen to Jamie. and between now and the time Dany arrives you really think he'll just be a prisoner again. I bring up you faegon won't just wait around, and raise you Jamie won't just be held captive. he's done that bit already, and I doubt that will be his purpose going forward.

Whatever Jaime is going to do, it is not likely to have anything to do with raising armies for House Lannister and fighting the Targaryens.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

If Dany says no to marriage they may use the horn to steal a dragon, no? that was quents plan when facing a similar scenerio, except for vic it might work. 

Oh, I don't know what Victarion is going to do ... but then chances are not that good that he is going to survive the coming battle. Or be in a shape to actually hurt Dany's cause afterwards. Moqorro joined him to prevent him from messing with Daenerys in a manner that's going to harm the plans the red priests have for her.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:58 PM, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

if she takes all she wants from the wealthy pentoshi and other free city elites, they will certainly try to rise against her as soon as she is in Westeros. unless you believe that she plans simultaneously eliminate them, but the damage that would do to world trade in the world of asoiaf would be damning. unless she gets the cities to submit to her by threat alone, its a problematic solution at best. people tend to resist when you attack their vested interests. its asking for faceless men.

Well, she certainly could butcher all the fat magisters like Illyrio and convince the captains and sailors to work for her now. Or she could simply kill or exile most of the population of those cities and hand them to her own loyal people.

We can expect that many reformed Ghiscari and all the freedmen from Slaver's Bay will follow her. They might be looking forward to getting new cities of their own rather than go to Westeros.

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2 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The passes thing is just a point of discussion if we assume Daenerys would continue to the rest of Westeros after she has conquered Dorne.

But then - trying to conquer Dorne of all places is silly if you don't have the Iron Throne already, because Dorne has nothing to offer and its Sands are usually a grave for foreign invaders.

As I said, it is not just the show but the vision in the House of the Undying. Considering that the show basically made nothing out of Daenerys ruling all the Dothraki - which would have given her hundreds of thousands of warriors - I daresay that's a plot point taken from the books which was then not continued in the show.

The Sept of Baelor cannot be destroyed by a wildfire explosion like it was in the show because there is no longer any wildfire hidden beneath the Great Sept. In the books, we hear that King Aerys' fruits hidden beneath the Great Sept and the Dragonpit were found.

Not to mention that Cersei has no control over or knowledge about the wildfire and that Varys - who may know or suspect where some of the missing wildfire is - would never help Cersei or allow her to blow up the Great Sept.

Money does not translate directly into food. And Tycho Nestoris has yet to return to Braavos with the contracts. If he doesn't Jon won't get any money.

Food would have to be shipped to the North, and then handed out to the people. Jon might be able to feed the folks at the Wall due to the harbor at Eastwatch, but it shouldn't be possible to move food further inland when the snow starts to block the roads.

Again, chances are very low that the Riverlords will ever acknowledge Jon Snow as their king. Most giants are dead, and the mammoths cannot pass through the Wall.

And, no, Daenerys has no need to ever deal with the North. She can watch the Others and wights butcher the Northmen if she is so inclined. Or she could just wait for spring to deal with the survivors of winter then. The Northmen will never be a threat to Daenerys' rule in the south if she could take the Iron Throne.

They are down to about 10,000 men ... and that was before the battles at Winterfell between Stannis and the Boltons, before another wildling attack under the Weeper, before serious winter starvation, before the fall of the Wall.

Not sure why Jon has to become a king. Not sure why Stannis should die quickly, either. Shireen isn't with him at the moment, and if the show gave us anything then that Stannis is going to burn his only child.

They don't have to see the miracle to realize she pulled off a miracle. Dragons were extinct and she brought them back. She isn't just a dragonrider, she is the Mother of Dragons.

They can kill all the opposition, no? I mean, what do you think is going to happen to the Yunkai'i and the non-reformed Meereenese? They will all be put down, of course.

And the slaves of Volantis and the other Free Cities will also butcher their elites in the coming revolution(s).

Aegon has to defeat the Tyrell army, but after that he will have KL. Varys will see to it that the Kingslanders welcome him like Larys Strong had them welcome the Lads.

It would be difficult for the Golden Company and Aegon's other allies from the Stormlands to defeat the Reach army, but not impossible. Smaller armies can and have defeated larger armies. Also, there are still Targaryen loyalists in the Reach. They might not be keen to fight against Aegon. They could defect or refuse to fight. That would be enough.

And then there are the Dornish armies which could come to Aegon's help.

And stop talking about the Lannisters as if they were a factor in KL. They are not. There are no Lannister armies there, just a few hundred guardsmen.

He definitely seemed to be looking for her (at least that's what he told Brienne) ... but the idea that his plan is to personally abduct Sansa is silly. He could not possibly do that on his own.

Whatever Jaime is going to do, it is not likely to have anything to do with raising armies for House Lannister and fighting the Targaryens.

Oh, I don't know what Victarion is going to do ... but then chances are not that good that he is going to survive the coming battle. Or be in a shape to actually hurt Dany's cause afterwards. Moqorro joined him to prevent him from messing with Daenerys in a manner that's going to harm the plans the red priests have for her.

Well, she certainly could butcher all the fat magisters like Illyrio and convince the captains and sailors to work for her now. Or she could simply kill or exile most of the population of those cities and hand them to her own loyal people.

We can expect that many reformed Ghiscari and all the freedmen from Slaver's Bay will follow her. They might be looking forward to getting new cities of their own rather than go to Westeros.

if she invades dorne by ship then she can just use ships to invade further north. if she has the passes on her side then she now has a hold on an area that won't be taken by her enemies. 

if we can learn anything from dornish history, it's that having the iron throne does not secure their allegiance. the last conquest ended with dorne, this one might as well start with it.

the vision you are talking about im assuming is the one of her son Rheago if he grew up. visions don't just show what will be. they also show what may be or could have been. he- would have been- the stallion who mounts the world. he dies and does not. that is not Dany.

why wouldnt varys blow it up? it eliminates any competent Tyrells there, further fractures the real, it turns the faith against cersie, and the small folk as well, it further justifies faegons war, and its probably within his means to do.

the argument you just made abasing Jons ability to feed his potential realm also works against dany in kings landing and the crowns lands. less so in dorne. and with the wealth and support of white harbor and the general preparedness we must assume the north will have for the winter- well lets compare it to the mountains clans of the north and the southerners in stannis's army. whose better at handling the snows. not that the hunger isn't hurting the northerners, but ht southerners are hurting much more.

the river lords have several reasons to accept Jon, the simplest being that he was the legal heir of the person who they already accepted as king. the river lord will want revenge as well for the treachery they endured. 

there are hundreds of giants still, Jon notes that many in the camps, and tormund later states dozens were killed, implying there are still hundreds. armored, they would be a fearsome sight. and the amounts are currently doing around east watch. if mammoths are anything like elephants, they can swim or even walk on the shallow waters of the shore to the other side.

10000 is how many faegon has, and if the boltons are removed houses that are staying silent ate the moment or are weighing alliance will change to Jons side. remember the Mormont letter, they serve the king in the north who's name is stark.

King is a functional title for leader, like magnar. he doesn't specifically have to be a king, but those wildings did submit to him, and those who did not do so easily, did so after Jon arranged a marriage pact. But yes Jon is also the legal king in the north contentious of the legality of robbs will, which in the kingdom of the north is law. that is what the northerners will call him, king.

everyone knows dany is the mother of dragons, and the Dothraki arnt simpletons either. they wont automatically submit to her by virtue of this alone. many will try to kill her and her dragons on virtue of this alone because it is threatening. some may submit to her out of respect and fear and yes even reverence, but day and the Dothraki have fundamentally different morals just as dany had with the slavers, and when that incompatibility is realized war between the two broke out, and when Danny won, it did not make the slaves cities love her or revere her. the slaves loved her because she freed them, but dany can only morally place resections on the Dothraki. her being around may even inside them to get out of this part of essos and head east instead.

he will have to fight Tyrells, Lannisters, probably some riverlords, defiant stromlanders loyal to tommen Baratheon, and maybe even the vale if little finger finds faegon counter productive to his plans. to handle that it would be best to not go to the one place they all may rally towards, the capital, and instead build up strength and alliances as he makes his way around the seven kingdoms. if he takes kings landing without taking the other providences, he will eventually have to leave the city, leaving strength behind and leaving the city vulnerable, and he wont have dragons to make up for that. all the houses and regions listed above have a reason to fight him if he takes the landing. he also has no way of feeding it.

some of the revolutions may be successful, but not all. and after any revolution it will take a long time to stabilize enough to handle feeding a large army across the sea. regime changes also often have unintended consequences and are unstable, often toppling, astapor and king kleon being a clear example of this.

Jamie, the experienced battlefield commander whose identity is based around his love of his sister, his martial nature, and being a targ kingslayer will have no part in the conflict between his own house and Dany who likely hates him? yeah sure right...

And if vic just dies and his successor ask her to marry euron, shell just say yes? If she doesn't what will the iron men do? maybe go further west and plunder some so the trip wasnt for nothing. either way Vics death does not secure the iron men for dany. maybe some of the slaves on the ships will try to stay behind but she wont get the full fleet by those means, and that will mean battle with the iron men.

dany wont butcher entire cities or ruling classes, again this would make her seem an enemy to the eyes of the westerosi, a threat to their own interest and something to band together against. defeat your enemies yes, but then help them stand otherwise no one will surrender to you, they will just fit to the bitter end. and even if she could just replace those people with random guys following her around, it would take years to establish the contacts and trade deals necessary to meet pre invasion levels. an absolute exhausting mess.

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12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

if she invades dorne by ship then she can just use ships to invade further north. if she has the passes on her side then she now has a hold on an area that won't be taken by her enemies. 

if we can learn anything from dornish history, it's that having the iron throne does not secure their allegiance. the last conquest ended with dorne, this one might as well start with it.

Well, Aegon doesn't start with Dorne. Why should Daenerys? And if she wants to conquer Dorne she should also march into the mountains to subdue the Fowlers, the Wyls, and the Yronwoods, no?

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

the vision you are talking about im assuming is the one of her son Rheago if he grew up. visions don't just show what will be. they also show what may be or could have been. he- would have been- the stallion who mounts the world. he dies and does not. that is not Dany.

No, it has nothing to do with that. It is a vision of Daenerys at the Womb of the World and the dosh khaleen are submitting to her.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

why wouldnt varys blow it up? it eliminates any competent Tyrells there, further fractures the real, it turns the faith against cersie, and the small folk as well, it further justifies faegons war, and its probably within his means to do.

Because Varys' Targaryen king needs a capital city which is intact. Varys also has no reason to hurt or antagonize the Faith. The new High Septon is very likely to proclaim Aegon the rightful king of Westeros.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

the argument you just made abasing Jons ability to feed his potential realm also works against dany in kings landing and the crowns lands. less so in dorne. and with the wealth and support of white harbor and the general preparedness we must assume the north will have for the winter- well lets compare it to the mountains clans of the north and the southerners in stannis's army. whose better at handling the snows. not that the hunger isn't hurting the northerners, but ht southerners are hurting much more.

No, we don't have to assume anything of that sort. Crucial castles in the North failed to bring in the harvest, among them Karhold, Deepwood Motte, Winterfell, and others. And the surplus food they still have is now wasted in the pointless war between the Boltons and Stannis.

Down in the south everybody but some regions in the Riverlands could bring their harvest in.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

the river lords have several reasons to accept Jon, the simplest being that he was the legal heir of the person who they already accepted as king. the river lord will want revenge as well for the treachery they endured. 

That is not confirmed. We don't know the contents of Robb's will as George himself pointed out when folks told him that Jon Snow was Robb's heir.

Jon Snow is not going to avenge the Riverlords. They are doing that themselves right now, with the help of undead Catelyn.

A couple of Riverlords might want to continue with the weirdo combined Northern-Trident kingdom ... but not many, especially when a Targaryen king is in their immediate neighborhood - and half of the Riverlords fought with Rhaegar at the Trident.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

there are hundreds of giants still, Jon notes that many in the camps, and tormund later states dozens were killed, implying there are still hundreds. armored, they would be a fearsome sight. and the amounts are currently doing around east watch. if mammoths are anything like elephants, they can swim or even walk on the shallow waters of the shore to the other side.

If Stannis can deal with Mance with about 1,500 men, then the wildlings are pretty much a joke in the military department. And most of them follow the Weeper at this point, not Jon Snow.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

10000 is how many faegon has, and if the boltons are removed houses that are staying silent ate the moment or are weighing alliance will change to Jons side. remember the Mormont letter, they serve the king in the north who's name is stark.

That was a letter written by ten-year-old. If the Northmen were to pretend to follow Stannis and then betray him they would be utter scum. The same goes for Jon Snow if he were to ever turn against Stannis or try to usurp the place of his trueborn siblings.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

King is a functional title for leader, like magnar. he doesn't specifically have to be a king, but those wildings did submit to him, and those who did not do so easily, did so after Jon arranged a marriage pact. But yes Jon is also the legal king in the north contentious of the legality of robbs will, which in the kingdom of the north is law. that is what the northerners will call him, king.

Robb's will has had no effect so far. Robert Baratheon also left a will, did that have any effect?

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

everyone knows dany is the mother of dragons, and the Dothraki arnt simpletons either. they wont automatically submit to her by virtue of this alone. many will try to kill her and her dragons on virtue of this alone because it is threatening. some may submit to her out of respect and fear and yes even reverence, but day and the Dothraki have fundamentally different morals just as dany had with the slavers, and when that incompatibility is realized war between the two broke out, and when Danny won, it did not make the slaves cities love her or revere her. the slaves loved her because she freed them, but dany can only morally place resections on the Dothraki. her being around may even inside them to get out of this part of essos and head east instead.

The plot there seems to be different. The Dothraki await a promised savior, the Stallion Who Mounts the World. The culture of Dany's own Dothraki was transcended when they saw her coming out of the pyre with the dragons.

The authority deciding who the Stallion is are the dosh khaleen. Jhaqo will return Daenerys to Vaes Dothrak and there she will be declared the Stallion by the dosh khaleen. Anything else makes no sense.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

he will have to fight Tyrells, Lannisters, probably some riverlords, defiant stromlanders loyal to tommen Baratheon, and maybe even the vale if little finger finds faegon counter productive to his plans. to handle that it would be best to not go to the one place they all may rally towards, the capital, and instead build up strength and alliances as he makes his way around the seven kingdoms. if he takes kings landing without taking the other providences, he will eventually have to leave the city, leaving strength behind and leaving the city vulnerable, and he wont have dragons to make up for that. all the houses and regions listed above have a reason to fight him if he takes the landing. he also has no way of feeding it.

Of course, Aegon will have to leave the city after he has taken it. But he will do it as the King on the Iron Throne, not some feigned boy pretender sitting at Storm's End. Of course the Lannisters might raise another army in the West and the Tyrells might also not submit fully to his rule, etc. But that doesn't change the fact that he will have to take the city as quickly as possible or fail

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

some of the revolutions may be successful, but not all. and after any revolution it will take a long time to stabilize enough to handle feeding a large army across the sea. regime changes also often have unintended consequences and are unstable, often toppling, astapor and king kleon being a clear example of this.

Nope, they can just take the lion's share of the food stored in this or that city. There must be a lot of food in the city of Volantis, say, or the lands around the city.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Jamie, the experienced battlefield commander whose identity is based around his love of his sister, his martial nature, and being a targ kingslayer will have no part in the conflict between his own house and Dany who likely hates him? yeah sure right...

Oh, he will have a part in all that, but in my opinion most likely as part of Aegon's Kingsguard.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

And if vic just dies and his successor ask her to marry euron, shell just say yes? If she doesn't what will the iron men do? maybe go further west and plunder some so the trip wasnt for nothing. either way Vics death does not secure the iron men for dany. maybe some of the slaves on the ships will try to stay behind but she wont get the full fleet by those means, and that will mean battle with the iron men.

At this point Daenerys is not there and the Ironborn help Dany's forces fight the slavers. If they stay with Dany's gang at Meereen afterwards they will become a part of her forces. If not, then they were a completely pointless plot point.

12 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

dany wont butcher entire cities or ruling classes, again this would make her seem an enemy to the eyes of the westerosi, a threat to their own interest and something to band together against. defeat your enemies yes, but then help them stand otherwise no one will surrender to you, they will just fit to the bitter end. and even if she could just replace those people with random guys following her around, it would take years to establish the contacts and trade deals necessary to meet pre invasion levels. an absolute exhausting mess.

The slaves won't ask Daenerys when they butcher their master. She is a catalyst for change now, and it is quite clear that compromising with the slavers will lead nowhere. That was the point of her plot in ADwD. And the only way to make slavery go away is to physically remove the slavers.

Westeros should have little problems with slavery being abolished in Essos.

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Well, Aegon doesn't start with Dorne. Why should Daenerys? And if she wants to conquer Dorne she should also march into the mountains to subdue the Fowlers, the Wyls, and the Yronwoods, no?

No, it has nothing to do with that. It is a vision of Daenerys at the Womb of the World and the dosh khaleen are submitting to her.

Because Varys' Targaryen king needs a capital city which is intact. Varys also has no reason to hurt or antagonize the Faith. The new High Septon is very likely to proclaim Aegon the rightful king of Westeros.

No, we don't have to assume anything of that sort. Crucial castles in the North failed to bring in the harvest, among them Karhold, Deepwood Motte, Winterfell, and others. And the surplus food they still have is now wasted in the pointless war between the Boltons and Stannis.

Down in the south everybody but some regions in the Riverlands could bring their harvest in.

That is not confirmed. We don't know the contents of Robb's will as George himself pointed out when folks told him that Jon Snow was Robb's heir.

Jon Snow is not going to avenge the Riverlords. They are doing that themselves right now, with the help of undead Catelyn.

A couple of Riverlords might want to continue with the weirdo combined Northern-Trident kingdom ... but not many, especially when a Targaryen king is in their immediate neighborhood - and half of the Riverlords fought with Rhaegar at the Trident.

If Stannis can deal with Mance with about 1,500 men, then the wildlings are pretty much a joke in the military department. And most of them follow the Weeper at this point, not Jon Snow.

That was a letter written by ten-year-old. If the Northmen were to pretend to follow Stannis and then betray him they would be utter scum. The same goes for Jon Snow if he were to ever turn against Stannis or try to usurp the place of his trueborn siblings.

Robb's will has had no effect so far. Robert Baratheon also left a will, did that have any effect?

The plot there seems to be different. The Dothraki await a promised savior, the Stallion Who Mounts the World. The culture of Dany's own Dothraki was transcended when they saw her coming out of the pyre with the dragons.

The authority deciding who the Stallion is are the dosh khaleen. Jhaqo will return Daenerys to Vaes Dothrak and there she will be declared the Stallion by the dosh khaleen. Anything else makes no sense.

Of course, Aegon will have to leave the city after he has taken it. But he will do it as the King on the Iron Throne, not some feigned boy pretender sitting at Storm's End. Of course the Lannisters might raise another army in the West and the Tyrells might also not submit fully to his rule, etc. But that doesn't change the fact that he will have to take the city as quickly as possible or fail

Nope, they can just take the lion's share of the food stored in this or that city. There must be a lot of food in the city of Volantis, say, or the lands around the city.

Oh, he will have a part in all that, but in my opinion most likely as part of Aegon's Kingsguard.

At this point Daenerys is not there and the Ironborn help Dany's forces fight the slavers. If they stay with Dany's gang at Meereen afterwards they will become a part of her forces. If not, then they were a completely pointless plot point.

The slaves won't ask Daenerys when they butcher their master. She is a catalyst for change now, and it is quite clear that compromising with the slavers will lead nowhere. That was the point of her plot in ADwD. And the only way to make slavery go away is to physically remove the slavers.

Westeros should have little problems with slavery being abolished in Essos.

Faegon more or less is starting with the dorne, well its second on his list anyways. he's not just ignoring it, and it is the first region he is trying to properly ally with, so there is no reason for him to invade as of yet. and if they don't get their support, they will probably just die (the golden company I mean). If I were to try to take the mountains, I would want to be able to attack on both sides so my own don't get penned in. conquering southern dorne would also cut off supplies and support to the many of the dornish in the passes, weakening them. 

I don't know what vision your talking about then. is it a dragon dream or a vision from the house of the undying? either way such could be interpreted as a representation of when she was at the wont of the world while pregnant with rhego when she ate the horse heart.

the new high septon is more like to try to establish a theocracy of the faith like the last high septon to use the stars and swords. the faith very well could be more a hindrance than a help, and blowing up just the sept of baelor is not the whole city. it is however provocative and something that would unite the faith against whoever they thought responsible.

Yes the houses that lost their seat and lord arnt as prepared as one could hope, but that does not diminish whiteharbour, nor northern mobility and potential for transporting supplies to areas in need in the winter. the southern houses have been just as embroiled in this war but with larger armies, meaning larger rates of consumption, not to mention the burden that is kings landing.

Robb revealed his will to his trusted allies glover and Mormont which we will presume alive until otherwise. the blackfish also likely knowns this which is why he feigned such distrust when he heard Jamie mention Jon, so a not to give anything away.

the riverlords know it was the Frey's yes, but also the lannisters who orchestrated the wedding and raided their lands. if they declare Jon king before dany arrives, it would be dishonorable/treason to change sides. some might, others will be too proud.

Stannis had a well executed surprise attack orchestrated on a camp. the wildlings are poorly armed but that can change, and we know wildings like those in the vale can be perfectly effective if not somewhat disorganized in war. the wildings on the other side of the wall follow the weeper and others like mother mole who Jon is mounting a rescue mission for. those under the south side have submitted to him.

as for the ten year old, why is a ten year old in charge if not because her sisters are out spreading the word their mother brought back. Betraying stannis is by no means a rare thing, most of the people who have served stannis have betrayed him at this point. and he could die for many another reasons as well. as to trueborn siblings, we have sansa who is missing an married to a lannister who is missing, rickon who may be recovered but is presumed dead, and the rest are presumed dead. Robb also may have legitimized Jon meaning he is true born and the legal heir.

if the mormont response is to be believed than it has started to take effect. Roberts will also was effective but Eddard used it too soon with too uncertain allies. if the goldcloaks were paid off to be on his side, the document would have been enough to win.

A stallion is a male horse. The stallion is not a savior but a conqueror. they already know she has dragons and have not declared her such. dany should be more preoccupied with getting back to meereen than visiting the dosh kaleen. an alternative could be the promise of plunder to the khalisar before her, which with drogon on their side may seem tempting. it should be a relationship more like Jon and the wildings and Tyrion and the mountain clans, a respect and partnership, not blind reverence. the Dothraki with dany at the time were desperate and abandoned and witnessed the literal miracle of her rebirth in flame. they were nobodies with little rights even among Dothraki. in that way they are an outlier group.

the city will get weaker as they wait and hunger rises. if the Lannisters or Tyrells defend the city from its wall with their army, faegon has no way in. he's better off attacking the capitals of those house to draw them away from the landing and into battle. and again, you don't need to be in the landing to be declared king, and just because you are the king in the landing, does not mean people will acknowledge you for it. the conqueror was crowned in old town.

even if dany confiscates large amounts of food your still dealing with a likely frozen blackwater making kings landing an unsuitable and vulnerable port, and if euron is her enemy, maintains such lines will be painful. those cities might also pursue similar burn tactics as had Meereen.

I cannot for the life of me understand why faegon would allow the kings guard who murdered his grandfather to be part of his own kingsgaurd. that's just stupid.

dany not being there could have them linger for some time, but that does not mean they wont become an enemy or they wont try to steal a dragon. the dusky woman is certainly up to something. the iron men could even be the first wave of westerosi enemies she faces.

The majority of the elite in the free cities are not slavers. some of those cities even hold slavery as illegal ostensibly. But they benefit from the slave trade by trading with slavers who produce other things. even people who do not own slaves have a vested interest in it continuing, and if dany were to eliminate all of these people, or the slaves were to rise up and do it themselves, economically those cities would be crippled for a long time as they attempt to reorganize. statistically speaking it takes 20 years for a region to re-stabilize after major regime changes, and in the meantime, extremists and militant groups contending for power will rise up. the sons of the harpy are an example of one such group. astapor made the slaves the masters and the masters the slaves, but that only created chaos and led to defeat. it will create widespread hunger, and you want dany to take their food from them after the fact.

 

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18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Faegon more or less is starting with the dorne, well its second on his list anyways. he's not just ignoring it, and it is the first region he is trying to properly ally with, so there is no reason for him to invade as of yet. and if they don't get their support, they will probably just die (the golden company I mean). If I were to try to take the mountains, I would want to be able to attack on both sides so my own don't get penned in. conquering southern dorne would also cut off supplies and support to the many of the dornish in the passes, weakening them. 

Aegon expects Dorne to stand with him, to declare for him. He doesn't want to conquer the place. In fact, he also does not want to conquer Westeros. He wants to destroy his enemies and hopes most of the Westerosi lords join him and recognize him as their king.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I don't know what vision your talking about then. is it a dragon dream or a vision from the house of the undying? either way such could be interpreted as a representation of when she was at the wont of the world while pregnant with rhego when she ate the horse heart.

It is a sign that Dany will return to the dosh khaleen. And we don't have a sign that she is just taking Jhaqo's khalasar. Of course, you can ignore such a clue, but you do that at your own peril.

For what it's worth, I was with you until the show had Dany take over all the Dothraki. I thought she would go with just the khalasar because there was no time for a return to Vaes Dothrak. But there clearly is, apparently.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

the new high septon is more like to try to establish a theocracy of the faith like the last high septon to use the stars and swords. the faith very well could be more a hindrance than a help, and blowing up just the sept of baelor is not the whole city. it is however provocative and something that would unite the faith against whoever they thought responsible.

No, the sparrows are not the same as the traditional High Septons and the old Faith Militant before the orders were outlawed. The sparrows are a movement of humble people, they are a grassroots movement of zealous and pious smallfolk, basically. And the new High Septon is one of their own.

These people are looking for a savior, they radicalized them because the present order - the hierarchy of the Faith included - failed to do their jobs and keep the peace in the Riverlands. The sparrows loathe the Lannisters and King Tommen. And among the smallfolk the belief in the Targaryen dynasty and their specialness is rooted pretty deeply - Jaehaerys I even made the Doctrine of Exceptionalism an official dogma of the Faith, meaning septons and septas teach that to the people.

In light of all that it seems pretty obvious that the Faith under the new High Septon will join Aegon. The new Targaryen king would also make them some concessions, of course. He would have to accept that the Faith Militant has returned and that the Faith will have a say in his new government. But, in turn, we can expect that the Faith Militant will support and fight for Aegon as long as Aegon makes the cause of the Faith his own, i.e. the fight against heretics and infidels.

Even for traditional pious people Aegon is the ideal Targaryen pretender. He isn't born of incest but the child of Elia and Rhaegar, and he doesn't have a sister he could marry. So the incest thing would be a non-issue during his reign. Even if he were to marry Daenerys she would only be his aunt, and that's something that's not viewed as incest by the Faith.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Yes the houses that lost their seat and lord arnt as prepared as one could hope, but that does not diminish whiteharbour, nor northern mobility and potential for transporting supplies to areas in need in the winter. the southern houses have been just as embroiled in this war but with larger armies, meaning larger rates of consumption, not to mention the burden that is kings landing.

That sounds to me like a lot of wishful thinking.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Robb revealed his will to his trusted allies glover and Mormont which we will presume alive until otherwise. the blackfish also likely knowns this which is why he feigned such distrust when he heard Jamie mention Jon, so a not to give anything away.

The Blackfish wasn't with Robb when he made his will. He did that when he was already en route to the Twins and learned about Balon's death at Pyke.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

the riverlords know it was the Frey's yes, but also the lannisters who orchestrated the wedding and raided their lands. if they declare Jon king before dany arrives, it would be dishonorable/treason to change sides. some might, others will be too proud.

There is no indication they contemplate something like that, especially not with Catelyn in their midst. If anyone takes power in the Riverlands it will either be Lady Stoneheart as woman who miraculously survived death or Edmure Tully as the Lord of Riverrun freed from his chains by his resurrected sister.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

Stannis had a well executed surprise attack orchestrated on a camp. the wildlings are poorly armed but that can change, and we know wildings like those in the vale can be perfectly effective if not somewhat disorganized in war. the wildings on the other side of the wall follow the weeper and others like mother mole who Jon is mounting a rescue mission for. those under the south side have submitted to him.

Most of those people are just refugees.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

as for the ten year old, why is a ten year old in charge if not because her sisters are out spreading the word their mother brought back. Betraying stannis is by no means a rare thing, most of the people who have served stannis have betrayed him at this point. and he could die for many another reasons as well. as to trueborn siblings, we have sansa who is missing an married to a lannister who is missing, rickon who may be recovered but is presumed dead, and the rest are presumed dead. Robb also may have legitimized Jon meaning he is true born and the legal heir.

Jon is still a man of the Watch, and nobody in the North would want one such as their lord or king. By the time he recovers from death or whatever is going to happen to him now the news about Bran and Rickon and Sansa might be already public knowledge.

The clansmen and the Manderlys and Robett Glover (and perhaps others) already know Bran and Rickon are alive, so chances are very bad that anyone is ever going to want to install Jon as the ruler of the North.

In fact, Howland Reed might also know this, considering he sent his children to Winterfell to take Bran to Bloodraven. But only a living Bran can become a greenseer.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

if the mormont response is to be believed than it has started to take effect. Roberts will also was effective but Eddard used it too soon with too uncertain allies. if the goldcloaks were paid off to be on his side, the document would have been enough to win.

No indication anyone in Westeros would want to make use of a will which made a false bastard a royal heir - especially not one who isn't even a Stark in the male line nor Robb's half-brother.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

A stallion is a male horse. The stallion is not a savior but a conqueror. they already know she has dragons and have not declared her such. dany should be more preoccupied with getting back to meereen than visiting the dosh kaleen. an alternative could be the promise of plunder to the khalisar before her, which with drogon on their side may seem tempting. it should be a relationship more like Jon and the wildings and Tyrion and the mountain clans, a respect and partnership, not blind reverence. the Dothraki with dany at the time were desperate and abandoned and witnessed the literal miracle of her rebirth in flame. they were nobodies with little rights even among Dothraki. in that way they are an outlier group.

How do you know what the dosh khaleen did or didn't decree when they heard about the Mother of Dragons? We also do not know why Jhaqo is where he is in the book. Is he looking for Daenerys for his own reasons or was he sent by the dosh khaleen?

We have no idea.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

the city will get weaker as they wait and hunger rises. if the Lannisters or Tyrells defend the city from its wall with their army, faegon has no way in. he's better off attacking the capitals of those house to draw them away from the landing and into battle. and again, you don't need to be in the landing to be declared king, and just because you are the king in the landing, does not mean people will acknowledge you for it. the conqueror was crowned in old town.

The Tyrells will send their army against Aegon, we already know that. And, no, King's Landing will not be defended against a Targaryen pretender outside the walls. The Kingslanders will open the gates to Aegon because they are all Targaryen men. They won't defend the whore queen and her bastard who isn't even of the blood of the Usuper.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

even if dany confiscates large amounts of food your still dealing with a likely frozen blackwater making kings landing an unsuitable and vulnerable port, and if euron is her enemy, maintains such lines will be painful. those cities might also pursue similar burn tactics as had Meereen.

Burning stuff is kind of difficult in winter.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

I cannot for the life of me understand why faegon would allow the kings guard who murdered his grandfather to be part of his own kingsgaurd. that's just stupid.

Not really. For one, Jaime desperately wants to make things up to Rhaegar's ghost, and Aegon is supposedly Rhaegar's son. If realizes Aegon might still be alive he would to believe that and join him because it would allow him to become 'Goldenhand the Just'.

Aerys II was a madman and only Aegon's grandfather, not his father. And according to reports Aerys II treated Aegon and his sister and mother like hostages in his last days, and he had named Viserys his heir, passing over Aegon. Aegon certainly could insist on Jaime's execution ... but then, he could just as well treat him like Jaehaerys I treated Joffrey Doggett.

Even more so if Jaime's public confession of the twincest would be what really helps Aegon's cause. If Jaime stood up and confirmed Stannis' claims then the reign of King Tommen or Queen Myrcella would end very quickly.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

dany not being there could have them linger for some time, but that does not mean they wont become an enemy or they wont try to steal a dragon. the dusky woman is certainly up to something. the iron men could even be the first wave of westerosi enemies she faces.

Moqorro will ensure that things go in the right direction. He may have even saved Victarion from the dusky woman who may have been the one who ensured that Vic's wound didn't get better.

18 hours ago, Targaryeninkingslanding said:

The majority of the elite in the free cities are not slavers. some of those cities even hold slavery as illegal ostensibly. But they benefit from the slave trade by trading with slavers who produce other things. even people who do not own slaves have a vested interest in it continuing, and if dany were to eliminate all of these people, or the slaves were to rise up and do it themselves, economically those cities would be crippled for a long time as they attempt to reorganize. statistically speaking it takes 20 years for a region to re-stabilize after major regime changes, and in the meantime, extremists and militant groups contending for power will rise up. the sons of the harpy are an example of one such group. astapor made the slaves the masters and the masters the slaves, but that only created chaos and led to defeat. it will create widespread hunger, and you want dany to take their food from them after the fact.

Slavery is only illegal in Pentos, and they are still participating in the slave trade and have a system in place that's very much like slavery.

The problems in Meereen and Astapor were that the slavers weren't fully destroyed ... and people were not really given the opportunity to move beyond slavery as a lifestyle. Which is pretty hard in Slaver's Bay. Which is why the cities there are likely to be destroyed completely, with the survivors moving on to greener pastures.

I mean, if you go back to ADwD you'll realize that Volantis is a city in decline. It is large but many buildings are empty, the harbor isn't used to full capacity, etc. It is the ideal place for many of Dany's freedmen to settle if they are so inclined, after the Old Blood have been put down and slavery has been abolished.

As for what's going to happen in the next decade or so - who cares? The series is not going to cover that.

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9 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

Aegon expects Dorne to stand with him, to declare for him. He doesn't want to conquer the place. In fact, he also does not want to conquer Westeros. He wants to destroy his enemies and hopes most of the Westerosi lords join him and recognize him as their king.

It is a sign that Dany will return to the dosh khaleen. And we don't have a sign that she is just taking Jhaqo's khalasar. Of course, you can ignore such a clue, but you do that at your own peril.

For what it's worth, I was with you until the show had Dany take over all the Dothraki. I thought she would go with just the khalasar because there was no time for a return to Vaes Dothrak. But there clearly is, apparently.

No, the sparrows are not the same as the traditional High Septons and the old Faith Militant before the orders were outlawed. The sparrows are a movement of humble people, they are a grassroots movement of zealous and pious smallfolk, basically. And the new High Septon is one of their own.

These people are looking for a savior, they radicalized them because the present order - the hierarchy of the Faith included - failed to do their jobs and keep the peace in the Riverlands. The sparrows loathe the Lannisters and King Tommen. And among the smallfolk the belief in the Targaryen dynasty and their specialness is rooted pretty deeply - Jaehaerys I even made the Doctrine of Exceptionalism an official dogma of the Faith, meaning septons and septas teach that to the people.

In light of all that it seems pretty obvious that the Faith under the new High Septon will join Aegon. The new Targaryen king would also make them some concessions, of course. He would have to accept that the Faith Militant has returned and that the Faith will have a say in his new government. But, in turn, we can expect that the Faith Militant will support and fight for Aegon as long as Aegon makes the cause of the Faith his own, i.e. the fight against heretics and infidels.

Even for traditional pious people Aegon is the ideal Targaryen pretender. He isn't born of incest but the child of Elia and Rhaegar, and he doesn't have a sister he could marry. So the incest thing would be a non-issue during his reign. Even if he were to marry Daenerys she would only be his aunt, and that's something that's not viewed as incest by the Faith.

That sounds to me like a lot of wishful thinking.

The Blackfish wasn't with Robb when he made his will. He did that when he was already en route to the Twins and learned about Balon's death at Pyke.

There is no indication they contemplate something like that, especially not with Catelyn in their midst. If anyone takes power in the Riverlands it will either be Lady Stoneheart as woman who miraculously survived death or Edmure Tully as the Lord of Riverrun freed from his chains by his resurrected sister.

Most of those people are just refugees.

Jon is still a man of the Watch, and nobody in the North would want one such as their lord or king. By the time he recovers from death or whatever is going to happen to him now the news about Bran and Rickon and Sansa might be already public knowledge.

The clansmen and the Manderlys and Robett Glover (and perhaps others) already know Bran and Rickon are alive, so chances are very bad that anyone is ever going to want to install Jon as the ruler of the North.

In fact, Howland Reed might also know this, considering he sent his children to Winterfell to take Bran to Bloodraven. But only a living Bran can become a greenseer.

No indication anyone in Westeros would want to make use of a will which made a false bastard a royal heir - especially not one who isn't even a Stark in the male line nor Robb's half-brother.

How do you know what the dosh khaleen did or didn't decree when they heard about the Mother of Dragons? We also do not know why Jhaqo is where he is in the book. Is he looking for Daenerys for his own reasons or was he sent by the dosh khaleen?

We have no idea.

The Tyrells will send their army against Aegon, we already know that. And, no, King's Landing will not be defended against a Targaryen pretender outside the walls. The Kingslanders will open the gates to Aegon because they are all Targaryen men. They won't defend the whore queen and her bastard who isn't even of the blood of the Usuper.

Burning stuff is kind of difficult in winter.

Not really. For one, Jaime desperately wants to make things up to Rhaegar's ghost, and Aegon is supposedly Rhaegar's son. If realizes Aegon might still be alive he would to believe that and join him because it would allow him to become 'Goldenhand the Just'.

Aerys II was a madman and only Aegon's grandfather, not his father. And according to reports Aerys II treated Aegon and his sister and mother like hostages in his last days, and he had named Viserys his heir, passing over Aegon. Aegon certainly could insist on Jaime's execution ... but then, he could just as well treat him like Jaehaerys I treated Joffrey Doggett.

Even more so if Jaime's public confession of the twincest would be what really helps Aegon's cause. If Jaime stood up and confirmed Stannis' claims then the reign of King Tommen or Queen Myrcella would end very quickly.

Moqorro will ensure that things go in the right direction. He may have even saved Victarion from the dusky woman who may have been the one who ensured that Vic's wound didn't get better.

Slavery is only illegal in Pentos, and they are still participating in the slave trade and have a system in place that's very much like slavery.

The problems in Meereen and Astapor were that the slavers weren't fully destroyed ... and people were not really given the opportunity to move beyond slavery as a lifestyle. Which is pretty hard in Slaver's Bay. Which is why the cities there are likely to be destroyed completely, with the survivors moving on to greener pastures.

I mean, if you go back to ADwD you'll realize that Volantis is a city in decline. It is large but many buildings are empty, the harbor isn't used to full capacity, etc. It is the ideal place for many of Dany's freedmen to settle if they are so inclined, after the Old Blood have been put down and slavery has been abolished.

As for what's going to happen in the next decade or so - who cares? The series is not going to cover that.

I fail to see any significant difference between destroying his enemies and conquest. what you described is in fact a form of conquest. faegons strategy or at least his hope is that dorne will join him, cutting out the part where he has to subdue it or make ally with another house and civil war there. and having said all that, if he could choose to not conquer anything and just become king, he would choose to in all likelihood, just as he does not wish to conquer dorne, but taking the seven kingdoms demands sovereignty over seven kingdoms, and so if he must fight, he will.

seriously though, I don't know what vision you're talking about, I mean can I get a page number or chapter number? hop on a search of ice and fire and quote that stuff. I even checked the dreams and prophecies list on the wiki, and I'm just not finding it.

as for Dothraki hordes we know about, at least three are all the way on the other side of essos. Outriders from Motho's khalasar are seen north of Dagger Lake, and Zekko's horde moves through the Forest of Qohor. Haldon Halfmaester believes they are fleeing the thirty thousand men of Khal Pono, whose khalasar has been spotted near the headwaters of the Selhoru. they are months away from vaes dothrak, and the stallion who mounts the world does not become such by decoration but by active subjugation. the crones said rhego would be that, but first he would have to conquer the other khalisars, as drogo does to grow his own.

And don't criticize me for using an idea from the show if you're going to use an idea from the show as evidence. and especially don't use the evidence of travel times, because the show was in no ways consistency or logical in using it.

The new high septon more resembles the Shepard from the dance. he's been show to believe that the gods laws are greater than men or king's and so is probably not an exeptionalist. if that us the case he may also be against the restoration of the incestious Targaryens. both dany and rheagars parents were siblings, meaning dany and him would be pretty incestious match (and I think first aunts do count). but maybe your right and they will support him. they are still a dangerous and radical party that faegon and/or Varys will not want the crown sharing power with. they can still keep the faith and a more controllable faith if they murder him and paint Cersei as the killer.

is it really wishful thinking to say the people who's leaders motto is "winter is coming" take the season seriously and make preparations accordingly. if you're ever up for a laugh look up what happened to drivers when it snows in the US states of Florida or Texas, and compare that with what happens when it snows in a northern state or Canada. or look at how many inches of snow are required to close schools. exposure and expectation make a big difference.

Yes the blackfish was not at hag's mire, but the blackfish was with Edmure alone for hours as he surrendered riverrun to Jamie, after which two prominent men took the black, so if he didn't know it when he refused the black, he probably knows it know. Edmure was there to hear the will. and the blackfish may also have learned about it before hand from Jason Mallister who was not at the red wedding. and much of what was said at the mire was decided on before hand as a trap for cat. if they told her while at river run, she may have tried to stay there as she later expressed a desire too.

I'm not saying Tully wont still be lord of the trident, but he accepted Robb's will, and if he can will try to uphold it. he made Robb his liege lord, which means he acknowledged Jon as the heir to his king. same with mallister. and uncat is a horror. no one will follow her except the group she's already got, and that was by virtue of Beric, many of whose men have seemingly left her.

Based on wildling customs we can assume that the majority of men are martial in nature. they don't sow, so to speak. feed them, armor and arm them, and they will be as deadly as any other man. and if Jon uses them , he wouldn't be leading a camp filled with children and old folk and non-fighting women. those can stay at the wall.

with the dismissal of selmy Robb claimed they had the precedent to release Jon from his oath, and I see no reason to doubt that. there will be a Mormont at the wall for the resurrection, provided there is one so his watch will end with his death anyways. if rickon's is a shaggy dog story, there will be little resolution for him, and as far as the crannog man knows, his children and bran are all dead. and even if they are all alive, and known to be alive, too late, Jon is till the legal heir. when Manderly learns that he may even respect that decision and follow it. 

there also exists the distinct possibility of Jon's hair regrowing white and his eyes becoming a lighter shade of purple. Dany's Targaryen genes really kicked in during her pyre, and if Jon is resurrected in a fire while snow wighting he may also get the blue eye effect coming out purple. add the testimony of reed and we discover that he's part stark part Targaryen, still making him eligible to inherit, and a claimant to the iron throne. the wording of the will could very well be "My heir" or instead of my brother as with Ned, which is why it is not shown.

as for the claim no one will follow Jon for his bastardy, have you never heard of Deamon Blackfyre? you know the legitimized bastard- the one that many lords declared for and was almost king- ringing any bells?

and as to the burn tactics (and I'll return to this)- do you have any indication of snowy weather in those areas? Martin has actually stated that being separated from the polar cap off the Land of Always Winter and located farther to the south, it is affected by winters to a lesser extent than Westeros. no snow has been mentioned by Arya or anyone else in essos as ao so far and even if the areas are snowed in, same problem for dany, different temperature. any remming harvest would be taken in long before dany arrived or dead from the cold, and not all cities will have a sewer you can exploit. And Dothraki are not good at siegecraft. now forgetting all that, Burn tactics or scorched earth does not mean just setting things on fire. it is a blanket expression for tactically destroying any useful resource, including but not limited to cutting down trees and crops(not necessarily burning), and often despoiling water sources, so have fun melting snow (if winter isn't arid in essos) and chopping down what few trees remain for firewood.

Faegon uses Jamie as an example of the type of person he doesn't want on his kingsguard when defending his selection of duck. he is the last person faegon would pick. he would have to be a complete ass to pick the kingslayer.

it's iffi at best to say the black priest has such influence, and he will have none if vic dies. and even if he does keep them passive, dany was warned against him by quaithe. that means he is an enemy or is being painted as one, which would suggest some coming conflict with dany.

and the problems of regime change arnt gradual. their basically immediate and usually exponential. it will be impossible to completely root out the old blood, and there are slaves who prefer slavery to freedom, as will many poorer freemen who have attitudes towards slaves similar to the attitudes encouraged towards and fought for by the poorer working class in the southern United States during the antebellum era and the civil war, or as the English and to- insert any ethnicity here, but especially the Irish. they will continue to fight for the old way. completely destroy the cities and millions will die of starvation, exposure and disease. so no, these people and these cities would not be able to support her war effort in Westeros.

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