Edric Storm’s Role

[Mister Smikes]

12 hours ago, Aebram said:

It's true that there's no proof either way, and I think you're judging Marwyn too harshly.

Too harshy?  By what logic?  I have drawn no definite conclusions -- only considered the very real possibility that he may be a villain.

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His associations with those four characters are so vague, they don't tell us anything about his character.

The most serious one is Fake Pate the Alchemist.  Marwyn must know that Fake Pate is not Pate, or he would not permit his presence at super-secret conversations.  And he can be presumed to know enough about blood magic to guess the origin of the glamor Fake Pate is employing.  In short, he is in league with the murderer of an innocent boy, and probably knows it.

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We know he also keeps company with "whores and hedge wizards," people from all walks of life, of many races, speaking their languages and honoring their religions.

Ok.  There is nothing about any of this that necessarily indicates immoral conduct or bad character.  But nothing here is a guarantee of good character either.  It is all perfectly consistent with villainy.  

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We know that he's traveled the world in search of knowledge, and written at least one book about what he learned. 

What he seems to be most interested in is dark sorcery.

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(Sorry for going off-topic.  Should we start a separate thread for this?)

No need.  What Aemon's corpse, Gilly's baby, and Edric Storm all have in common is that they have king's blood, making them potential targets for blood magic rituals.

[Aebram]

9 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Marwyn must know that Fake Pate is not Pate, or he would not permit his presence at super-secret conversations.

I don't think there's any evidence for either part of this. There's no reason to think that Marwyn knows that "Pate" is an impostor.  And if he did, that would probably be a reason for him to not let fPate in on his secrets. 

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, Aebram said:

I don't think there's any evidence for either part of this. There's no reason to think that Marwyn knows that "Pate" is an impostor.  And if he did, that would probably be a reason for him to not let fPate in on his secrets. 

(a) Marwyn would not Real Pate in on his secrets, whether he was in league with him or not, because Real Pate is dumb as a box of rocks.

(b) Marwyn would not let a Faceless Man in on his secrets, if Marwyn and the Faceless Man were NOT in league.

(c) Marwyn MIGHT let a Faceless Man in on his secrets, if Marwyn and the Faceless Man WERE in league.

(d) Marwyn lets Fake Pate in on his secrets.  That's straight from the text.  I see no way around it, unless you imagine that Fake Pate was invisible, and only Sam can see him.

That rules out (a) and (b) and leaves (c).  Since we don't know the details of their alliance, you are no position to rule out (c).

[Aebram]

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Marwyn would not Real Pate in on his secrets, whether he was in league with him or not, because Real Pate is dumb as a box of rocks.

I'm not so sure about that.

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Armen looked down his nose at Lazy Leo. He had the perfect nose for it, long and thin and pointed. “Archmaester Marwyn believes in many curious things,” he said, “but he has no more proof of dragons than Mollander. Just more sailors’ stories.” “You’re wrong,” said Leo. “There is a glass candle burning in the Mage’s chambers.” (AFFC Prologue)

Lazy Leo doesn't seem especially smart, or honorable.  Maybe Marwyn isn't as secretive as you suggest.

As you say, neither of us knows for sure. And I will admit to having a bias. I like Marwyn; he's my favorite character, and I don't want him to be evil.  When you look at everything we know about his entire life, I just don't think it adds up to him being a bad guy, compared to someone like Qyburn who had red flags out as soon as he appeared on the page.

So (returning to the original topic) I think it's unlikely that Gilly is on her way to Essos. If it turns out that she is, my hat will be off to you for figuring it out from such faint clues. But for now, I'm still on Team Marwyn. 

 

[Mister Smikes]

On 8/21/2021 at 7:09 PM, Aebram said:

I'm not so sure about that.

Lazy Leo doesn't seem especially smart, or honorable.  Maybe Marwyn isn't as secretive as you suggest.

Leo knows about the glass candle burning in Marwyn's chamber.  We are not sure how he knows this, or if he is in league with Marwyn, or how he found out about the glass candle, or if Marwyn would approve of him talking about the glass candle to his buddies, or if Marwyn has any reason to think of the glass candle burning (by itself) as a secret.

In the case of Marwyn's conversation with Sam, Marwyn is explicit that he wants to keep the conversation confidential.  And Fake Pate is sitting RIGHT THERE as he said so.  

Whether or not Lazy Leo is also secretly present, and listening at the door, is neither here nor there.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:09 PM, Aebram said:

As you say, neither of us knows for sure. And I will admit to having a bias. I like Marwyn; he's my favorite character, and I don't want him to be evil.  When you look at everything we know about his entire life, I just don't think it adds up to him being a bad guy, compared to someone like Qyburn who had red flags out as soon as he appeared on the page.

That's fine.  I just see no reason to share your bias.  When a complete stranger seeks you out, asks you to trust them, and offers to take all your problems off your hand, we have a phrase for that kind of person - a confidence man, or (for short), a con man.   No, Sam, don't worry about following Maester Aemon's dying wishes.  Here's your new best friend Marwyn, magically appeared before you, and he's going to take all of your problems off your hands, so you don't have to worry about anything.  And never mind that he sent a pair of assassins to put you to bed in a deserted tower overlooking a river.  It's probably just where the best rooms are.   And what could possibly go wrong?

On 8/21/2021 at 7:09 PM, Aebram said:

So (returning to the original topic) I think it's unlikely that Gilly is on her way to Essos.

Well (returning to the original topic), I'm not sure that Gilly is on her way to Essos.  I think she is on her way to wherever the next major blood magic ritual involving kings' blood is about to be performed.  For all I know, that might be Dragonstone.

On 8/21/2021 at 7:09 PM, Aebram said:

If it turns out that she is, my hat will be off to you for figuring it out from such faint clues. But for now, I'm still on Team Marwyn. 

Fair enough.

[Nevets]

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Well (returning to the original topic), I'm not sure that Gilly is on her way to Essos.  I think she is on her way to wherever the next major blood magic ritual involving kings' blood is about to be performed.  For all I know, that might be Dragonstone.

Sam considered the baby swap as a secret he was oath bound to keep, and therefore held it back.  As far as Marwyn (or anybody else) knows, the babe with Gilly is Gilly's child with Craster, and therefore of no interest at all.  Certainly not kingsblood.  As for Maester Aemon's corpse, the crew of Cinnamon Wind is probably not going to want to keep it on board, and would be suspicious if it was.  If he were so inclined, which I doubt, it would be easier to arrange for its delivery to a secure location, switch it out, and go from there.  But that would require remaining in Oldtown, which is apparently not the case.

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

In the case of Marwyn's conversation with Sam, Marwyn is explicit that he wants to keep the conversation confidential.  And Fake Pate is sitting RIGHT THERE as he said so.  

He says nothing about keeping the entire conversation a secret.  He tells Sam to get his chain quickly, and not to discuss prophecy or dragons.  Given recent events, those are likely to be popular topics of conversation, though, so he may have meant to not show any interest in investigating them.  Probably not a problem, as Sam's main interest is the Others, the Wall in general, and recruiting maesters to work at the Wall.  As for Pate, we have no information on what knowledge Marwyn had about him.  And if anyone has noticed any differences in ability, they have probably put it down to improved study habits.  Nobody has reason to think it is a Faceless Man takeover.  We only know because we saw Pate die at the hands of one.

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

That's fine.  I just see no reason to share your bias.  When a complete stranger seeks you out, asks you to trust them, and offers to take all your problems off your hand, we have a phrase for that kind of person - a confidence man, or (for short), a con man.   No, Sam, don't worry about following Maester Aemon's dying wishes.  Here's your new best friend Marwyn, magically appeared before you, and he's going to take all of your problems off your hands, so you don't have to worry about anything.  And never mind that he sent a pair of assassins to put you to bed in a deserted tower overlooking a river.  It's probably just where the best rooms are.   And what could possibly go wrong?

Maester Aemon's information about the Citadel is 70-80 years out of date.  Things change, even in Westeros.  And there is nothing inherently suspicious about Marwyn's or Alleras's actions.  They are helping a newcomer they think might prove useful, in an academic sense.  And they are probably correct in that assessment.  

Sam is only accompanied by Pate. And in any event we have no reason to believe that Alleras, or Sarella, is an assassin. And while Pate is a Faceless Man, it appears that his primary mission is one of gathering information.  We have already seen from Arya's chapters that the FM have an interest in gathering knowledge in addition to committing assassinations, so this makes sense as well.

I seriously doubt that GRRM has gone to all the trouble of sending Sam all the way to the Citadel to simply kill him off.  Especially without a POV to take over the story.  Marwyn may or may not be on the side of the angels (although I am inclined to think he is more good than bad), but I have no feawrs for the safety or well-being of Sam, Gilly, or the babe.  Or Aemon's corpse for that matter.  At least from Marwyn or his associates.  Euron and his gang is another story entirely, but that is for another day.

[Mister Smikes]

27 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Sam considered the baby swap as a secret he was oath bound to keep, and therefore held it back. 

Marwyn knew about Sam before he arrived, and sent Alleras to intercept him.  He's been using his glass candles; and/or (maybe) Sarella's contacts on the Cinammon Wind.  What Marwyn knows about Sam is not necessarily limited to what Sam chooses to tell.

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As for Maester Aemon's corpse, the crew of Cinnamon Wind is probably not going to want to keep it on board, and would be suspicious if it was.  

I don't see your argument here.   It is almost as if you are saying "If I was writing the story, or if I was the Captain of the Cinammon Wind, I would have given Aemon a burial at sea."  Well, you are not writing the story and are not the Captain of the Cinnamon wins, and it appears that somehow, someway, Aemon's corpse is still on board.  And it seems to me it is anyone's guess how long it will remain their before it is disposed by whatever time, place or method is deemed most appropriate for whatever purpose.

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He says nothing about keeping the entire conversation a secret. 

This quibble is irrelevant.  It does not matter if the entire conversation is secret or only part of it.  Fake Pate is present for everything.

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Sam is only accompanied by Pate.

I think Pate can handle Sam.

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And while Pate is a Faceless Man, it appears that his primary mission is one of gathering information. 

Nah.  His primary mission, obviously, is to make sure new arrivals are safely tucked into bed.  On deserted towers.   Overlooking rivers.  Before they have even officially checked in to the Citadel.  I assume he does this for all new arrivals.  

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I seriously doubt that GRRM has gone to all the trouble of sending Sam all the way to the Citadel to simply kill him off. 

And yet no Sam chapter appeared in the post-Feast section of Dance.  And no Sam chapters have been confirmed for TWOW.  And yet GRRM told a French newspaper that he expected TWOW to contain 13 povs, which does not seem to leave much room for planned Samwell chapters. 

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Especially without a POV to take over the story. 

There is no reason to assume we need a Sam POV in Oldtown.  Marwyn and his cabal are apparently going somewhere on the Cinnamon Wind, and any story has no doubt followed them.

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Euron and his gang is another story entirely, but that is for another day.

Euron is not going to Oldtown.  He's going to Slavers' Bay.  He's made no secret of that.  

[Bowen 747]

Edric doesn't need a major role.  It is enough that a Baratheon gets to experience life as an exile.  It's karma biting back at the Baratheons for the misery they inflicted on Daenerys and Viserys. 

[BRANDON GREYSTARK]

He is the Henry Tudor( Henry vii ) of ASOIAF , And also he is to help Stannis be likable .