International Events VII- Afghan Catastrophe

[Winterfell is Burning]

It's well known Bolsonaro essentially copied the Trump playbook. His main influence there is his third son, Eduardo, who even tried to become Ambassador to the US, but Bolsonaro withdrew the nomination when it became clear he didn't had the votes (should be noticed that when EB was giving interviews pushing to get the job, he named among his influences Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio, but when asked about Henry Kissinger, said he didn't know who that was).

The problem for Bolsonaro is, like I said before, that the Trump playbook only works to the same extent as it did because the US is a two party system, and the other option is an increasingly left-wing Democratic party, while there are dozens of other options in Brazil.

Plus, while Bolsonaro has been the poster for vaccine resistance, polls say that around 90-95% of the population supports and plans to get them, the highest rate in the world (ironically, a big factor in this is probably the fact that during the military dictatorship there were mandatory vaccinations for some diseases, and children were even vaccinated in schools without consent of their parents at times, and those vaccines worked).

Also, Bolsonaro didn't understand that he didn't win because of  right-wing rants and non-sense, but because he promised an end to the corruption that plagued PT's administrations and a more pro-market, less interventionist economic policy to bring prosperity, and he delivered none of this.  Brazilian voters are not in general particularly ideological; the best proof of this is that today the same areas that are backbone of support for PT and Lula (rural, poor ones in the northeast) were less than 50 years ago the biggest supporters of the military dictatorship party (from an American perspective, imagine if Bernie Sanders' base of support today came from some place like Alabama or Mississippi), because there aren't that many clear ideological divisions between people, and voting tends to be more pragmatic.

Specialists are calculating his loyal fanbase is just around 10-15%, and there are some speculation among politicians and press he might not even run in 2022 due to fear of a crushing defeat (though that strikes me as wishful thinking).

[Zorral]

10 minutes ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

It's well known Bolsonaro essentially copied the Trump playbook

Indeed.  Bolsonaro and tRump and Putin and Duterte, Edogan, Johnson etc. -- all part of the current destroy- democracy-have-top-down-autocracy-all-the-way globalist movement.  That the USA due to the ancient (for this country) and ever-present racist and anti-intellectual hatred is the favored model, is heartbreaking.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Going back to China's politics, and the Australian-UK-US submarine deal.

Kevin Rudd's take on itis quite interesting. And added some more aspects I wasn't aware of.

I can really recommend it.

[Zorral]

33 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Going back to China's politics, and the Australian-UK-US submarine deal.

Kevin Rudd's take on itis quite interesting. And added some more aspects I wasn't aware of.

I can really recommend it.

Not w/o subscription, alas.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

26 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Not w/o subscription, alas.

Hum, weird, I could access it without a sub.

I will spam your inbox then, with your kind permission

Edit: Check your inbox sorry for format. Copy and paste isn't what it used to be.

[DMC]

I was able to continue reading with ads.

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Ok, so it was Zorral's fault for not bein able to read it, and not the link.

Thanks.

btw. did you find it worth reading?

[Zorral]

14 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Ok, so it was Zorral's fault for not bein able to read it, and not the link.

Thanks.

btw. did you find it worth reading?

Thank you. It may not be "Zorral's Fault" per se.  Different systems operate differently.  Many times I send things to Partner, who is denied access, though I have it, and vice versa.

I'm reading it now. So far I'm most struck by 

Quote

Rudd: We do not have a domestic civil nuclear industry, so how do we service these submarines? Which then leads to a third problem: If they have to be serviced in the United States and by the United States, does this lead us to a point where such a nuclear-powered submarine fleet becomes an operational unit of the U.S. Navy as opposed to belonging to a strategically sovereign and autonomous Royal Australian Navy? These questions haven't been resolved yet in the Australian mind, which is why the alternative government from the Australian Labor Party, while providing in principle support for the decision, insists that these questions have to be resolved.

It is a useful article, especially as over here we're not hearing much about what it means, or could mean, even from the perspective of Australia.  It was all about France being upset. The event and issues here are utterly upstaged by domestic ones, per usual.  Sigh.

As the interview continues, as Rudd opines, I am, alas, reminded of the tenor of such newspaper opinings by various European government poobahs in 1912-1914.  Not good.

[DMC]

23 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

btw. did you find it worth reading?

A little lengthy but sure.

[Zorral]

"France, Greece sign defense deal; Athens to buy 3 warships
France and Greece have announced a defense deal worth around 3 billion euros ($3.5 billion) including Athens’ decision to buy three French warships"

https://abcnews.go.com/International/wireStory/france-greece-sign-defense-deal-athens-buy-warships-80274595

Again, for reasons, I am reminded of the conflicting multiple treaties, alliances and military agreements made variously among the various competing powers in the run-up decade to WWI. 

[Arakan]

Hungary and Ukraine are in big argument about…Gas, what else. Ambassadors have been called in. Reason: Hungary agreed to 15 year delivery contract, buying Russian Gas. So far, so normal. Though they will circumvent Ukraine. And Ukraine is now doing what they always do in those matters: crying and ventilating because they will lose that sweet transit money and leverage. 

Let’s see how this will play out. And please remember: basically everyone suspects that Ukraine is stealing Gas though that topic is kept small due to geostrategic reasons. But everyone knows it, happened last winter as well. 

[Zorral]

If one is reminded of run-up to WWI among the eastern and Balkan and Russian and Ottoman lands, one wonders too, are there secret treaties among these conflicting groups as there were back then too?

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Greece investing in their military doesn't surprise and  worry me that much. They've traditionally spend quite a bit in their military. Usually it's a pissing contest with Turkey that's been going on in the background for decades. I don't see the two NATO members going at each other for realz.

[DireWolfSpirit]

 "And please remember: basically everyone suspects that Ukraine is stealing Gas though that topic is kept small due to geostrategic reasons." 

That's really poor form, I didnt realize they were doing that.

[Gorn]

32 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Greece investing in their military doesn't surprise and  worry me that much. They've traditionally spend quite a bit in their military. Usually it's a pissing contest with Turkey that's been going on in the background for decades. I don't see the two NATO members going at each other for realz.

There is a major ongoing dispute about the rights on gas and oil in the Aegaean Sea between Greece and Turkey, mostly caused by Turkey not recognizing the UN Law of the Sea and the economic zone borders it defines.

If you spend some time in the Turkish nationalist corners of the internet, you will find people talking about the Treaty of Lausanne "expiring" in 2023 and openly eyeing the Greek islands near their coast, which is often based on actual official statements of Turkish politicians and government figures.

Personally, I don't think Greeks are paranoid for beefing up their military and making sure France is in their corner. Better to have them and not need them...

[Hereward]

Quite right, especially considering the massive upgrades to Turkish military capability under the competent Trump Erdogan. Also, given the thrashing the Turks gave to the absolutely not Russians in Libya. Looks like victim blaming to me. 

[Zorral]

Again, another thing that triggers "remember WWI?".  This time peoples harking back to days of yore when "you" were part of "our" empires / kingdoms, and there is every reason why it all should be so again.

When they all said that actual military belligerence over such matters wouldn't / couldn't happen.

[Varysblackfyre321]

On 9/19/2021 at 8:47 PM, larrytheimp said:

Didn't say I see no difference between the two, my intent was to show that I didn't see why those criteria preclude FNR's response from being xenophobic.  If we're supposed to assume China is bad I'd like to see a little more effort than two descriptors that could just as accurately be attributed to the US.  

Little late to respond to this but I have to say this pontification whilst also inaccurate seems something that would just demotivate people with any interest in fighting back against the anti-democracy movement happening in the US.

If the US is already totalitarian there’s not much point in trying to keep more blatantly fascists out of power.

The far right in the west does not oppose China because they’re practicing a genocide(they are) or totalitarianism. They oppose china because China is the opposition for their perceived want for dominance on the global stage.  

On 9/20/2021 at 10:31 AM, Rippounet said:

Minor quibble here, but the USSR was actually fairly good at "marketing" up to and including the 1970s. In fact, the two main reasons why the Soviet Union was a rival at all were the power of its ideology (including its PR) and its nuclear arsenal.

 interesting to look at the socially progressive messaging by the Soviet Union. Framing themselves as promoters of Racial equality abroad(domestically they were still racist), women’s rights(expanding the labor pool) we’re things they did.

[The Anti-Targ]

On 9/28/2021 at 9:38 AM, Zorral said:

Quote

Rudd: We do not have a domestic civil nuclear industry, so how do we service these submarines? Which then leads to a third problem: If they have to be serviced in the United States and by the United States, does this lead us to a point where such a nuclear-powered submarine fleet becomes an operational unit of the U.S. Navy as opposed to belonging to a strategically sovereign and autonomous Royal Australian Navy? These questions haven't been resolved yet in the Australian mind, which is why the alternative government from the Australian Labor Party, while providing in principle support for the decision, insists that these questions have to be resolved.

I thought that comment was interesting too.

If there is a cold war then it's the west choosing to start it. For all the bad shit China is doing within its borders (including from their perspective Taiwan), China's external aspirations revolve around prosperity and influence, which are motivators for any large country and many small and medium countries. Unlike Russia that had a strong streak of communist evangelism running through it's foreign ambitions, China is not trying to spread communism. This is mostly because China is basically communist in name only. It's authoritarian and undemocratic, but that's not the same as communist. And China is not all that strongly motivated to evangelise any of that.

The reason the West would start a cold war is not because it feels ideologically threatened but economically threatened. And that very much smells of the motivations for WWI. As China feels its properity and influence increasing threatened by the west trying to thwart it at every turn, China will become more belligerent in its behaviour. The west can dial it down any time, and China will follow suit, because it mainly wants to preserve and increase its prosperity.

The real tragedy of a proper cold war isn't the cold war or its direct effects, it's that it will become a distraction for the major GHG polluters of the world to completely take their attention off addressing the true threat to humanity.

[Zorral]

One can speculate too that the US and others may be far overestimating just how strong and capable China is, just as England, France and Germany so very much overestimated how powerful Russia was in that half decade prior to WWI?  Not that I know anything really, but then neither do most of the blatherers in government and journalism and commentariat.