International Events VII- Afghan Catastrophe

[The Anti-Targ]

8 hours ago, Padraig said:

That's a rather audacious statement.  Putting most of the blame on one side.  I don't see a very good argument to support that.  Not that I want to put the blame on China either.

What's the motivation for China to get into one? Really I don't think the west wants one either, but its fears for China may get the better of it. China's biggest fear is it's own people, and in a cold war the main weapon the west would try to use is China's own people. So a cold war would be detrimental to keeping a lid on the aspirations of a freer and democratic society that is surely growing among the middle classes. China fears the influence the west can have on its people, it therefore would only want to get into a cold war if it thinks such a thing will decrease the influence of the west on the people.

I should say that I am not suggesting there won't be blame on China for the west choosing to go onto a cold war footing.  It is asserting itself in ways that are provocative, whether intentional or not. And even though there was a face saving end on the two Michaels situation hostage taking is definitely a highly provocative act. But one could argue that the arrest of Meng Wanzhou was a provocative act itself that the USA and Canada should have known would provoke a response.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

On 9/28/2021 at 1:47 PM, Gorn said:

There is a major ongoing dispute about the rights on gas and oil in the Aegaean Sea between Greece and Turkey, mostly caused by Turkey not recognizing the UN Law of the Sea and the economic zone borders it defines.

If you spend some time in the Turkish nationalist corners of the internet, you will find people talking about the Treaty of Lausanne "expiring" in 2023 and openly eyeing the Greek islands near their coast, which is often based on actual official statements of Turkish politicians and government figures.

Personally, I don't think Greeks are paranoid for beefing up their military and making sure France is in their corner. Better to have them and not need them...

If the Turks invaded Greek Islands near their coast… what happens to NATO?  We expell Turkey and support Greece?  We stay neutral?  This is really an ugly prospect.

[Winterfell is Burning]

1 hour ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Im not herw to defend china, i know about some things, at least i think i know, my information about the chinese situation comes from sources that many times have an agenda. They fabricate or exagerate, and it wouldnt be the first time. 

Some times they report thing about china that when you look past the sensationalism, its nothing like they say it was. 

I belive its true that china doesnt respext han rights within it borders i just dont think the west is necessarily superior on that front. 

Funny thing that I haven't read you saying that bad things you read about the US or some political actors there, like Trump, are sometimes exaggerated or biased, even though, well, they are. Maybe that Trump guy isn't so bad, right?   The fact is that the US is, for all it's faults, a democracy, you can go to the middle of Times Square and criticize Trump or Biden freely, in China you go to jail for wearing a Winnie the Pooh shirt. And sure, minorities often suffer bad treatment, but nowhere in the West there's mass sterilization and concentration camps for millions. 

[Padraig]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I don't think the west wants one either

I would stop there.  It is in nobody's interest.  We just overdramatise.

Not that its impossible but, given I don't know what specifically would call such a deterioriation in relations, its impossible to assign blame.

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

democratic society that is surely growing among the middle classes

I do find that interesting.  In the 1990s and 2000s, there were efforts to bring both Russia and China into the fold.  2 very different approaches.  Both failed spectacularly.  Up to now anyhow.  China was welcomed into Capitalism Inc. (as signified by joining the WTO in 2001) and given certain privileges.  The expectation was that the rise of the middle classes would lead to democracy and it would become another Japan (or something like that).  Has there been any real sign of that?  Witness Hong Kong in recent years.  The rise of Xi Jinping and the surveilance state?

I'm not saying it can't happen still.  But the idea that it is likely or probable, I would find naive.

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If the Turks invaded Greek Islands near their coast…

I don't see Erdogan invading Greece land.  Ignoring Greek territorial water is possible but different (might be inspired by China's approach to the South China Sea).  He has done and will continue to do a lot of damage in that region anyhow.

[The Anti-Targ]

33 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I would stop there.  It is in nobody's interest.  We just overdramatise.

Not that its impossible but, given I don't know what specifically would call such a deterioriation in relations, its impossible to assign blame.

I do find that interesting.  In the 1990s and 2000s, there were efforts to bring both Russia and China into the fold.  2 very different approaches.  Both failed spectacularly.  Up to now anyhow.  China was welcomed into Capitalism Inc. (as signified by joining the WTO in 2001) and given certain privileges.  The expectation was that the rise of the middle classes would lead to democracy and it would become another Japan (or something like that).  Has there been any real sign of that?  Witness Hong Kong in recent years.  The rise of Xi Jinping and the surveilance state?

I'm not saying it can't happen still.  But the idea that it is likely or probable, I would find naive.

 

I would say it is inevitable. It's just the timeframe expectation that is unrealistic.

The people who say they believe in democracy seem to have little faith in it eventually winning out, and so they make too much of an effort to impose it using hard power rather than encourage it with soft power. Though we also know that partisan democracy has all sorts of avenues for corruption and undermining the purity of democracy. So, the type of democracy we have in most of the world has so many weaknesses that the believers in it see a great deal of fragility and always a possibility of descent into authoritarianism. Though on that note the so-called believers and promoters of democracy have been quite willing to directly undermine in other countries for the purposes of national interest. So it is not beyond the realms of possibility that at some point for the purposes of self-interest the so called promoters and defenders of democracy will decide that democracy is not serving their interests in their own country and they will seek to destroy it where they live, since national interest is only of value when it aligns with self-interest among the powerful elites.

[DireWolfSpirit]

10 hours ago, Conflicting Thought said:

Some times they report thing about china that when you look past the sensationalism, its nothing like they say it was. 

So do you think the NPR article I linked is sensationalism?

[Gorn]

15 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

If the Turks invaded Greek Islands near their coast… what happens to NATO?  We expell Turkey and support Greece?  We stay neutral?  This is really an ugly prospect.

Well, the last time it happened, it was "punished" by an arms embargo lasting three entire years, although the military junta leading Greece at the time shares the blame for that situation. This time however, France and UAE would be guaranteed to join in on the side of Greece due to treaties they recently signed, and Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Italy would also support Greece either directly or indirectly. I'm guessing there would be a lot of domestic pressure on Putin to side with Greece due to shared religion as well.

Again, I don't think this will escalate that far since all the actors are rational, but here's a plausible scenario for it to happen. If Turkish companies actually start drilling in Greek waters, Greece might feel compelled to stop it by force. Erdogan would declare it an act of war in which Greece fired the first shot, and might respond with an invasion of islands and attack on Cyprus. This wouldn't be too hard to accomplish since most of the islands are demilitarized by treaties. After that, it would be a bet on whether Greece and its allies have enough political will and military strength to take them back - basically, Argentina's strategy in the Falklands War, only if Argentina actually had a powerful modern military.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

35 minutes ago, Gorn said:

Well, the last time it happened, it was "punished" by an arms embargo lasting three entire years, although the military junta leading Greece at the time shares the blame for that situation. This time however, France and UAE would be guaranteed to join in on the side of Greece due to treaties they recently signed, and Egypt, Israel, Saudi Arabia and Italy would also support Greece either directly or indirectly. I'm guessing there would be a lot of domestic pressure on Putin to side with Greece due to shared religion as well.

Again, I don't think this will escalate that far since all the actors are rational, but here's a plausible scenario for it to happen. If Turkish companies actually start drilling in Greek waters, Greece might feel compelled to stop it by force. Erdogan would declare it an act of war in which Greece fired the first shot, and might respond with an invasion of islands and attack on Cyprus. This wouldn't be too hard to accomplish since most of the islands are demilitarized by treaties. After that, it would be a bet on whether Greece and its allies have enough political will and military strength to take them back - basically, Argentina's strategy in the Falklands War, only if Argentina actually had a powerful modern military.

I saw Erdrogan called the “competent Trump”.  I sincerely hope this doesn’t happen.  Is Greece foolish enough to take the first swing if provoked?  Do we want Russian support for Greece in a shooting war?

[Padraig]

13 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

So it is not beyond the realms of possibility that at some point for the purposes of self-interest the so called promoters and defenders of democracy will decide that democracy is not serving their interests in their own country and they will seek to destroy it where they live, since national interest is only of value when it aligns with self-interest among the powerful elites.

So, democracy is not so inevitable then?

After the fall of communism, I think there was a significant upsurge in confidence in "democracy".  I accept that how it was subsequently encouraged was severely flawed (and it lead to many unfortunate events) but either way, that bubble definitely burst by the time of the Financial Crisis.  Maybe we will stumble onto the right path but I don't see anything inevitable about it.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

41 minutes ago, Padraig said:

So, democracy is not so inevitable then?

After the fall of communism, I think there was a significant upsurge in confidence in "democracy".  I accept that how it was subsequently encouraged was severely flawed (and it lead to many unfortunate events) but either way, that bubble definitely burst by the time of the Financial Crisis.  Maybe we will stumble onto the right path but I don't see anything inevitable about it.

Nothing in human culture is “inevitable”.  Fukyama’s thesis about “The End of History” was always absurd.

[Conflicting Thought]

19 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Dude are you seriously trying to deny the the fact china is in the process of committing a genocide against the Uygurs. Jesus. 

No, sorry, english is not my first language. I do think something horrible is happening with the uygurs. But i find it difficult to find information that i trust. 

I cant trust the information that china gives and i cant trust "western" information, manufacturing consent and all that. It wouldnt be the first time the media lies or omits information, and im not talking about  the uygurs, but every day you have news of something terrible or dystopian form china, and, i dont know, is difficult for me to trust some of the reporting. 

And i think many times human rights are used to further imperialist goals. Without looking to the problems of human rights in our own countries. For example, the way the usa treats inmigrants, or indeginous peoples with the reservations, and this happens in eurpean countries to, like france and the roma. 

I do think china violates human rights, is just that im worried and uncomfortable with the narrative that china is the worst thing ever, when i see how the usa (or france or italy) treat people that are inmigrant or not white in their own country. not to speak on how they treat the rest of the world, cuz then i think china is not nearly as destructive as allot of european countries or the usa. 

Im from latin america, and im sure that colors the way i think about this things. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

58 minutes ago, Conflicting Thought said:

No, sorry, english is not my first language. I do think something horrible is happening with the uygurs. But i find it difficult to find information that i trust. 

I cant trust the information that china gives and i cant trust "western" information, manufacturing consent and all that. It wouldnt be the first time the media lies or omits information, and im not talking about  the uygurs, but every day you have news of something terrible or dystopian form china, and, i dont know, is difficult for me to trust some of the reporting. 

And i think many times human rights are used to further imperialist goals. Without looking to the problems of human rights in our own countries. For example, the way the usa treats inmigrants, or indeginous peoples with the reservations, and this happens in eurpean countries to, like france and the roma. 

I do think china violates human rights, is just that im worried and uncomfortable with the narrative that china is the worst thing ever, when i see how the usa (or france or italy) treat people that are inmigrant or not white in their own country. not to speak on how they treat the rest of the world, cuz then i think china is not nearly as destructive as allot of european countries or the usa. 

Im from latin america, and im sure that colors the way i think about this things. 

How are “human rights” used to further “imperialist goals”?  How does the US having shitty policies about immigration in any way excuse the PRC’s actions regarding the Uygurs?

[DireWolfSpirit]

Oh this is cray cray, you know the new Netflix Korean hit series "Squid Game"?

It suddenly has a political story associated with it as a certain Korean Prez candidate is willing to pay mucho dinero for a phone number that was shown in the show.

A Korean man has reportedly been offered 100 million won (about $85,000) by a South Korean presidential candidate in exchange for his phone number, which has been bombarded with calls after featuring in Netflix's new series "Squid Game."

[Varysblackfyre321]

4 hours ago, Conflicting Thought said:

No, sorry, english is not my first language. I do think something horrible is happening with the uygurs

That thing is flat-out genocide.

4 hours ago, Conflicting Thought said:

I cant trust the information that china gives and i cant trust "western" information, manufacturing consent and all that.

You can say you can’t really trust information about the Holocaust because of course the allies stand to benefit from their vanquished foes being looked at as monsters.

4 hours ago, Conflicting Thought said:

It wouldnt be the first time the media lies or omits information, and im not talking about  the uygurs, but every day you have news of something terrible or dystopian form china,

Ah, yes I’m sure you give the courtesy in deciding to have no opinion in regards to any far-right figure in the west. 
 

 

4 hours ago, Conflicting Thought said:

I do think china violates human rights,

One of which is genocide.

4 hours ago, Conflicting Thought said:

is just that im worried and uncomfortable with the narrative that china is the worst thing ever,

No, just worse than  some aspects domestically than the US.

3 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How are “human rights” used to further “imperialist goals”?  How does the US having shitty policies about immigration in any way excuse the PRC’s actions regarding the Uygurs?

Lulls the populace into feeling their government’s intervention is benign.

Britain had invade parts of Africa to stop slavery in the 1800s, the USA had to stay in Afghan to protect women’s rights etc etc.

[Zorral]

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

A Korean man has reportedly been offered 100 million won (about $85,000) by a South Korean presidential candidate in exchange for his phone number, which has been bombarded with calls after featuring in Netflix's new series "Squid Game."

Why, why yes, yes rich people these days have too much money!

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

52 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Lulls the populace into feeling their government’s intervention is benign.

Britain had invade parts of Africa to stop slavery in the 1800s, the USA had to stay in Afghan to protect women’s rights etc etc.

Ahhh… smoke screen to real intentions.

[The Anti-Targ]

8 hours ago, Padraig said:

So, democracy is not so inevitable then?

After the fall of communism, I think there was a significant upsurge in confidence in "democracy".  I accept that how it was subsequently encouraged was severely flawed (and it lead to many unfortunate events) but either way, that bubble definitely burst by the time of the Financial Crisis.  Maybe we will stumble onto the right path but I don't see anything inevitable about it.

It's inevitable in China, but it is always insecure wherever it has been put in place, because nowhere does democracy properly. Partisanship and the influence of money corrupts it and therefore weakens its foundation. If China also implements democracy as we see it in the west then it will probably go the way democracy has in Russia. 

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

It's inevitable in China, but it is always insecure wherever it has been put in place, because nowhere does democracy properly. Partisanship and the influence of money corrupts it and therefore weakens its foundation. If China also implements democracy as we see it in the west then it will probably go the way democracy has in Russia. 

How is democracy inevitable in China?

[The Anti-Targ]

2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

How is democracy inevitable in China?

Because every other option is unsustainable in the long term, so democracy will have its turn. Whether or not it lasts is a different question. We may not see it in our lifetimes, but it will get there. One thing that we have learned, IMO, is that if democracy is imposed form without it is more likely to fail sooner than if it evolves from within. Still not guaranteed to last of course.

[Padraig]

10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

We may not see it in our lifetimes, but it will get there.

Sure.  That is so open-ended, that you can't really argue against it.  I still think you are over-reaching with the term "inevitable" since we may not exist in 100 years (for example) or our whole approach to governments may change due to alien contact, but that is just semantics.