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Will Dorne openly declare for Aegon?


chrisdaw

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I think the question is self explanatory. I'm looking to get a feel for what the majority think so if you could leave your answer that'd be nice, thank you. I thought I could do a poll (maybe I can but don't know how?), I don't know how well this will work without it.

I have a theory that there's a fairly silent majority of people that have a pretty good grasp on the story, but because they're mostly passive and the people on the extremes are not so passive and very visible a false impression is created as to what the average hardcore fan thinks. This question I feel may be useful for testing my theory.

The case for Dorne declaring for Aegon is how everything has been contrived. I don't necessarily mean inorganically in world, but deliberately out of world, it is all very clean and logical and pushing the same direction. I can't remember what are Winds chapters anymore so I'll spoiler the below out of an abundance of caution.

Spoiler

 

Dany could have had Dorne but she turned Quentyn away, she had other priorities. Regardless of how fairly, unfairly, naively or astutely one thinks Dany treated Quentyn, the story of that treatment is on its way back to Dorne with Quentyn's bones via Gerris and this is his thoughts on the matter.

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Ser Archibald, the big bald one, had nothing to say. He sat on the edge of his pallet, staring down at his bandaged hands in their linen wrappings. Ser Gerris punched a wall. "I told him it was folly. I begged him to go home. Your bitch of a queen had no use for him, any man could see that. He crossed the world to offer her his love and fealty, and she laughed in his face."

"She never laughed," said Selmy. "If you knew her, you would know that."

"She spurned him. He offered her his heart, and she threw it back at him and went off to fuck her sellsword."

Arianne is a seductive sex bomb with a weakness for bold pretty boys. Aegon is young, seemingly inexperienced with women, notably very attractive and has just invaded Westeros with 10k blokes to declare himself king, pretty bold. Doran has sent Arianne to suss out Aegon, and entrusted to her the power to say yay or nay on declaring Dorne for war.

Aegon's main man Jon Connington, Griff, seems particularly intent on having Dorne in their corner, perhaps more so than fully makes sense.

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And whilst they dither, we will send out word secretly to likely friends in the stormlands and the Reach. And Dorne." That was the crucial step. Lesser lords might join their cause for fear of harm or hope of gain, but only the Prince of Dorne had the power to defy House Lannister and its allies. "Above all else, we must have Doran Martell."

All a very comfortable fit. Dorne turns from Dany and declare for Aegon. A lost opportunity for Dany that will cost her dearly, as rather plainly foreshadowed by Barristan, and a costly mistake too for Dorne.

 

 

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48 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

I think the question is self explanatory. I'm looking to get a feel for what the majority think so if you could leave your answer that'd be nice, thank you. I thought I could do a poll (maybe I can but don't know how?), I don't know how well this will work without it.

I have a theory that there's a fairly silent majority of people that have a pretty good grasp on the story, but because they're mostly passive and the people on the extremes are not so passive and very visible a false impression is created as to what the average hardcore fan thinks. This question I feel may be useful for testing my theory.

The case for Dorne declaring for Aegon is how everything has been contrived. I don't necessarily mean inorganically in world, but deliberately out of world, it is all very clean and logical and pushing the same direction. I can't remember what are Winds chapters anymore so I'll spoiler the below out of an abundance of caution.

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Dany could have had Dorne but she turned Quentyn away, she had other priorities. Regardless of how fairly, unfairly, naively or astutely one thinks Dany treated Quentyn, the story of that treatment is on its way back to Dorne with Quentyn's bones via Gerris and this is his thoughts on the matter.

Arianne is a seductive sex bomb with a weakness for bold pretty boys. Aegon is young, seemingly inexperienced with women, notably very attractive and has just invaded Westeros with 10k blokes to declare himself king, pretty bold. Doran has sent Arianne to suss out Aegon, and entrusted to her the power to say yay or nay on declaring Dorne for war.

Aegon's main man Jon Connington, Griff, seems particularly intent on having Dorne in their corner, perhaps more so than fully makes sense.

All a very comfortable fit. Dorne turns from Dany and declare for Aegon. A lost opportunity for Dany that will cost her dearly, as rather plainly foreshadowed by Barristan, and a costly mistake too for Dorne.

 

 

Which place is Dorne again? At this point I would have to reread to refresh my memory once Winds comes out.

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Not openly at first. It will take a certain process. Just like Doran said, "the time is not yet come for Dorne to openly defy the Iron Throne". Doran will want to wait for Dany's arrival and the unification of the two Targaryen claimants before submitting Dorne to a cause. Arianne won't have any of that because that kind of alliance most probably puts an end to Arianne's opportunity to be a queen. Doran's wise (if not overly cautious) strategy stays in the way of Arianne's ambitions. This won't end good for both of them.

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Yay because Arianne wants to be queen and Doran entrusted her with the decision to go to war, which is what she wanted from the beginning. So she will seduce fAegon, marry him and become queen. If he's recognize as the son of Rhaegar and Elia, he has a better claim than Dany and Arianne won't let that chance fly away. Moreover, Dany will be held responsible for Quentyn's death because of her bad reputation in the east and Gerris' testimony which will push Dorne onto fAegon's arms. 

I also think that he's going to win the future battle against the Tyrells, called Westerosi Agincourt by many fans and become a serious candidate for the Iron Throne. He will win the Throne and when Dany hears about that, she will come to Westeros to face him: the Second Dance of Dragons will happen but KL will be destroyed by the battle.

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It is either openly or not at all. Aegon would be finished if the Dornish armies in the passes would not intervene on his behalf. Even most of the Stormlords were to join him - and there is a chance that they do this after he has taken Storm's End - they couldn't stand against the Tyrells for long and would eventually be besieged in Storm's End.

If the Dornish are smart they are going to march to the Stormlands pretending they act in Tommen's name to help the Tyrells to retake Storm's End. After all, Mace Tyrell shouldn't know that Arianne Martell is in Storm's End and at this time Trystane Martell is still betrothed to Myrcella Baratheon, so the Tyrells might not exactly expect the Dornishmen to betray King Tommen so openly.

Without the full strength of Dorne Aegon has no chance to draw other lords and knights to his banner, nor would he be able to convince a considerable portion of the Westerosi people that he is Rhaegar Targaryen's son. Even most people who desperately want to believe the Targaryens will return would be smart enough to realize that a boy who might be a fake who has no support among the great houses of the Realm will eventually fail.

But if Dorne declares for him there will be ripple effects all across the Seven Kingdoms. People will think he has a chance to win and people will believe he is the real deal because his mother's family has joined him.

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10 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

I think the question is self explanatory. I'm looking to get a feel for what the majority think so if you could leave your answer that'd be nice, thank you.

If by "Aegon" you mean Young Griff who some people think is Aegon, then my answer is yes, Doran Martell will openly declare for Faegon.

10 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

I thought I could do a poll (maybe I can but don't know how?), 

Just ask for votes and count the votes.  Looks like 2 to 0 so far, in favor of "Yes", with 3 others too cool to commit as yet.

10 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

I have a theory that there's a fairly silent majority of people that have a pretty good grasp on the story, but because they're mostly passive and the people on the extremes are not so passive and very visible a false impression is created as to what the average hardcore fan thinks. This question I feel may be useful for testing my theory.

The case for Dorne declaring for Aegon is how everything has been contrived. I don't necessarily mean inorganically in world, but deliberately out of world, it is all very clean and logical and pushing the same direction. I can't remember what are Winds chapters anymore so I'll spoiler the below out of an abundance of caution.

I guess your own vote would be "yes" then.  So 3 to 0 in all.  

I'm not sure what you think the "hardcore fan" thinks.

Anyhow, a poll of this forum (silent majority or not) will only show what this forum thinks.

And of course popularity is not a guide to truth.  Only future volumes (if they ever come out) will tell us which ones of us are right or wrong.

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On 8/20/2021 at 6:07 AM, Lord Varys said:

It is either openly or not at all.

I agree.

And that's where I anticipate there being friction between Arianne and her father in the last two books of the series.

Doran is not going to want to openly support Aegon so soon or so boldly even if he is convinced that Aegon is really his sister's son. Not yet. Not until Quentyn returns with Daenerys and dragons. This is likely going to piss a lot of people off. Arianne (and likely almost everyone else people, real or fictional) will understand that it's one or the other, now or never. So Arianne will press play without her father's full express consent and the war will commence.

Or it might not even be Arianne; it could be Elia Sand who presses play. Remember her relationship to the guy in charge of the ravenry...and her access to it? And her poor impulse control?

In other words, I think Arianne (or Elia) will force her father's hand -- one way or another. And Dorne will be destroyed because of it. If Elia does it, Arianne will either be blamed for it or she'll try to protect Elia by saying that she is the one who did it.

In any case, when Dany comes with fire and blood, people are going to be like "Prince Doran was right all along." Eventually, someone somewhere will say "No, he was still wrong. He waited too late." In the end, Oberyn, Arianne, Elia and Doran will all have messed up!

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I assume that major reason why Doran will not openly support (f)Aegon is that he understands that Dorne and Stormlands are among weakest of kingdoms of Westeros. Or even together those kingdoms are not enough to challenge even Reach. So unless he can be sure that (f)Aegon will gain more support from somewhere he will not give green light. Naturally assuming that Doran survives long enough to keep Dorne "neutral". So if he dies for some reason like demand of the plot situation would totally different.

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8 hours ago, Willam Stark said:

Yay because Arianne wants to be queen and Doran entrusted her with the decision to go to war, which is what she wanted from the beginning. So she will seduce fAegon, marry him and become queen. If he's recognize as the son of Rhaegar and Elia, he has a better claim than Dany and Arianne won't let that chance fly away. Moreover, Dany will be held responsible for Quentyn's death because of her bad reputation in the east and Gerris' testimony which will push Dorne onto fAegon's arms. 

I also think that he's going to win the future battle against the Tyrells, called Westerosi Agincourt by many fans and become a serious candidate for the Iron Throne. He will win the Throne and when Dany hears about that, she will come to Westeros to face him: the Second Dance of Dragons will happen but KL will be destroyed by the battle.

If fAegon doesn't get greyscaled somewhere along the way.

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Yes, they will openly declare for Aegon. 
 

I believe all of the events in the Dornish saga have led to this. Dorne will play make up a significant portion of Aegon’s forces to go up against the Lannister Forces. Whether or not the Tyrells in King’s Landing and Tommen are still alive at that point.

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Not all of Dorne, but I definitely think some of it will, all we have on the relationship between the Yronwoods and the Martells points to them being in separate sides, like they always have. So either the Martells join Aegon and the Yronwoods switch to the Lannisters (or Dany) or the Martells take a pass and the Yronwoods join Aegon. But I think the Yronwoods are the most likely Aegon allies, after all, George is big on history repeating itself, and the Martells where always sided with the Targaryens while the Yronwoods always sided with the Golden Company.

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3 hours ago, BlackLightning said:

I agree.

And that's where I anticipate there being friction between Arianne and her father in the last two books of the series.

Doran is not going to want to openly support Aegon so soon or so forcefully even if he is convinced that Aegon is really his sister's son. Which will likely piss a lot of people off. Arianne (and likely almost everyone else people, real or fictional) will understand that it's one or the other. So Arianne will press play without her father's approval or knowledge and the war will commence.

In other words, I think Arianne will force her father's hand -- one way or another. And Dorne will be destroyed because of it.

Then when Dany comes with fire and blood, people are going to be like "Prince Doran was right all along." Eventually, someone somewhere will say "No, he was still wrong. He waited too late." In the end, Oberyn, Arianne and Doran will all have messed up!

Doran deliberately left the decision what to do with Aegon to Arianne. He didn't have to do that but he did. He wants her to make the call, so he is not going to oppose her on that one.

And it will very much look like the right decision once they hear that Daenerys is missing and perhaps dead ... not to mention when they hear about Quentyn's death.

Doran is also pretty much dying of gout right now. He is not going to live much longer at this point, anyway.

I don't expect a civil war in Dorne, but, in my opinion, chances are very high that Euron Greyjoy and his fleet will attack and possibly burn Sunspear and/or the Water Gardens, killing Doran and Trystane in the process, in retaliation to Dorne declaring for Aegon.

When Daenerys shows up without Quentyn Dornish support for her would, at best, be lukewarm, even if there were no Aegon-Arianne thingy going on. The Martells want a share in the Targaryen rule in exchange for their support. They would not support Daenerys out of the goodness of their hearts.

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I would have to say “no, Dorne will not declare for Aegon”. Dorne itself will not. But Arrianne and some of the Snakes will. Dorne is not all of one mind. Arrianne will learn the the truth of Aegon’s origin. He’s not the real prince. But she is ambitious and poor in judgment. She will drag her family into a war that cannot be won. War will break out in Dorne, the Riverlands, Eyrie, and the North. News of Daenerys Targaryen and her dragons will spread. Many will reach out and beg for help to bring order to Westeros. 

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It depends on who is doing the deciding. Doran often makes like he wants to play the Game but is afraid to make a move. Arrianne wants to make a move but doesn't think about if it's one she should make. Word of Quentyn's failure with Daenerys reaching Dorne will also factor into the decision. I don't doubt for a moment Aegon would jump at the offer to secure Dorne for his cause if he marries Arrianne.

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On 8/20/2021 at 3:10 PM, Lord Varys said:

Doran deliberately left the decision what to do with Aegon to Arianne. He didn't have to do that but he did. He wants her to make the call, so he is not going to oppose her on that one.

Doran never said that exactly.  And I very much doubt that's what he meant.

Doran wants Arianne to report to him by Raven.  Beyond that, it seems implied that Doran has given Arianne some authority to tell Aegon that Dorne would commit on Aegon's behalf, though even that is unclear.  Arianne's alternative, I suppose, would be to withhold such commitment, in which case the decision would still rest with Doran.  

On 8/20/2021 at 3:10 PM, Lord Varys said:

Doran is also pretty much dying of gout right now. He is not going to live much longer at this point, anyway.

Dying??  I thought he just suffers from gout.  Which can be very painful, but still ....

 

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1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Doran never said that exactly.  And I very much doubt that's what he meant.

Doran wants Arianne to report to him by Raven.  Beyond that, it seems implied that Doran has given Arianne some authority to tell Aegon that Dorne would commit on Aegon's behalf, though even that is unclear.  Arianne's alternative, I suppose, would be to withhold such commitment, in which case the decision would still rest with Doran.  

The sample chapters make it clear that Arianne was given the code to direct the two Dornish armies in the passes via raven, meaning it will be her call - and her call alone - to decide whether Dorne is going to support Aegon or not.

We can assume that she will also write to her father, informing him about what she learned. But if Doran had wanted to make the final call on the matter of war and peace he would simply have not given Arianne the means to direct the Dornish armies. Without the code she couldn't possibly tell their generals what to do.

Doran could have decided to direct his armies from Sunspear after he received Arianne's reports and thinking about what he wants to do.

But he didn't do that. Instead he clearly wants his daughter - who is grooming as his successor - to make that call on her own, which she will have to do in the near future, anyway, because he is not going to live much longer.

It might be that Arianne and Doran will exchange letters before she makes her final decision ... but I'd not count on that. As things stand right now Dorne has to join Aegon as quickly as possible or else they can march back home because the Tyrells will either crush him or so cripple his campaign that it will never recover. If he were to be pinned inside Storm's End and the Dornish would not join things would be over for him, even if he could escape back to Essos aboard a ship.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Dying??  I thought he just suffers from gout.  Which can be very painful, but still ....

Gout slowly kills you by means of destroying your kidneys. You can control it with a proper diet and medication, but Doran doesn't get that. He still drinks wine as if it were water, putting more and more strain on his kidneys. And his gout is clearly very advanced. His legs are already so swollen and ugly that he has to cover them to not terrify the children.

Add to that the emotional blow of Oberyn's death, Arianne's subsequent betrayal and the news about Quentyn's death that should reach him eventually ... he is not going to live much longer.

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29 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Gout slowly kills you by means of destroying your kidneys. You can control it with a proper diet and medication, but Doran doesn't get that. He still drinks wine as if it were water, putting more and more strain on his kidneys. And his gout is clearly very advanced. His legs are already so swollen and ugly that he has to cover them to not terrify the children.

Add to that the emotional blow of Oberyn's death, Arianne's subsequent betrayal and the news about Quentyn's death that should reach him eventually ... he is not going to live much longer.

There is also a possibility that there will be rebellion against house Martell. After all leader of that house is very sick and tired man and his heir just happens to be away from Dorne and Doran seemed to made him very unpopular among the people. Or house M is now weaker that it has ever been. So if someone wants to rebel and remove Martells as overlord of Dorne now would be right time to do it.

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

The sample chapters make it clear that Arianne was given the code to direct the two Dornish armies in the passes via raven, meaning it will be her call - and her call alone - to decide whether Dorne is going to support Aegon or not.

Delegating authority to one's agents in the field, for the sake of quick reaction during wartime, in no way implies intent to abdicate any of one's own authority. 

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Doran could have decided to direct his armies from Sunspear after he received Arianne's reports and thinking about what he wants to do.

At the cost of delay, sure.  I'm sure he also delegated authority to Obara, and Tyene, and Nymeria and the generals of his armies in the field, when he sent them on their respective missions.

Anyway, the choice he authorized Arianne to make basically amounted to "act now" or "wait".  The decision enter the war in support of Aegon seems the only irrevocable decision he authorized her to make.  Which, if that interpretation is correct, is a pretty heavy clue as to which way he is leaning.  He did not, as far as I can tell, authorize Arianne to deliver to (f)Aegon a declaration of war against him.  

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But he didn't do that. Instead he clearly wants his daughter - who is grooming as his successor - to make that call on her own, which she will have to do in the near future, anyway, because he is not going to live much longer.

You have a rosy view of the man who manipulated her into a Stockholm Syndrome type loyalty to him, by holding her in solitary confinement for so long that she was desperately grateful for his attention.  On some level, Doran is still using her. 

And he still dispenses information on a need-to-know basis.  The reason we see Doran through the eyes of Arianne and Hotah, is because these people only hear what he says, and cannot know what he thinks.

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Gout slowly kills you by means of destroying your kidneys.

Even in medieval times, people could and did survive with gout for many decades.  Which is a long enough time that gout was generally not considered a fatal disease even then - or perhaps I should say especially then.  Just a very painful one.

 

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5 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

You can control it with a proper diet and medication, but Doran doesn't get that. He still drinks wine as if it were water, putting more and more strain on his kidneys.

I guess "drinks wine as if it were water" is just your way of saying "he drinks wine", which is I think all one can actually tell from the text.  And I've heard that wine is actually not terrible for gout sufferers - beer being far far worse -- though I'm sure you know better.  You know everything, and you are always 100% sure.

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