Covid-19 #37: Mississippi Worming

[williamjm]

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

It does seem to justify boosters, except Israel has been giving boosters for over a month now and it hasn't stopped the very poor trends.  Yet.

I think I remember seeing a graph somewhere showing that the rate of infections in vaccinated people had gone down since they started giving out boosters. It perhaps isn't visible in the total figures because it won't reduce the number of unvaccinated people.

47 minutes ago, Padraig said:

I have seen more and more research that does suggest natural immunity is better than a vaccine for COVID.  But as you say, it doesn't really change the logic for vaccination.

From what I've seen natural infection plus vaccination is also better protection than natural infection on its own (unsurprisingly).

[Zorral]

1 hour ago, Clueless Northman said:

the most unvaccinated are the younger ones, who are less at risk of ending up in hospital.

So why are most of the hospitalized here in the USA, who have utterly overwhelmed the Florida, TX etc. hospital systems, in their 30's and younger? and unvaccinated?

[Raja]

3 hours ago, Padraig said:

It does seem to justify boosters, except Israel has been giving boosters for over a month now and it hasn't stopped the very poor trends.  Yet.

We don't know that yet, especially as if the specific age group they are talking about there have a large percentage already vaccinated. As has been explained before, if 85% plus of that age group is vaccinated, you will see cases & hospitalizations amongst the vaccinated as they make up such a large percentage. As an aside, I agree with you that Israel has 60%ish at two doses, which is why they are seeing a large outbreak right now, especially as they got rid of all restrictions.

In addition, 2 days ago, the European CDC has come out with this recommendation regarding boosters at present, and looking at all the data so far, I agree with them.

Quote

• When assessing the need for possible booster doses of COVID-19 vaccine from the public health perspective, it is important to keep in mind the main objective of the vaccination strategy (i.e. preventing severe cases of COVID-19). Vaccine effectiveness against severe disease should preferably be chosen as the primary outcome of interest for assessing whether there is a clear need for a booster dose in specific groups.
   
• The available evidence at this time regarding ‘real world’ vaccine effectiveness and the duration of protection shows that all vaccines authorised in the EU/EEA are currently highly protective against COVID-19-related hospitalisation, severe disease and death, suggesting there is no urgent need for the administration of booster doses of vaccines to fully vaccinated individuals in the general population.
   
• The option of administering an additional vaccine dose to people who may experience a limited response to the primary series of COVID-19 vaccination, such as some categories of immunocompromised individuals (e.g. solid organ transplant recipients), should already be considered now. This is to be seen as an extension of the primary vaccination series for these specific groups, and not as a booster. Consideration could also be given to providing an additional dose as a precautionary measure to older frail individuals, in particular those living in closed settings (e.g. residents of long-term care facilities).
   
• In the context of many countries outside of the EU/EEA still struggling to receive and administer enough vaccine doses to their populations, special consideration should be given to the current global shortage of COVID-19 vaccines, which could be further worsened by the administration of booster COVID-19 vaccine doses for the general population in EU/EEA countries. 

The bolded is particularly important, especially the first bit that the primary outcome we should be looking at is hospitalizations & deaths. And of course other outcomes are important, i.e. we want as few people getting covid as possible, but in the context of a lot of the world not getting first doses, the primary outcome should remain severe disease.

[The Marquis de Leech]

28 daily cases today. Another substantial drop. 

[The Anti-Targ]

49 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

28 daily cases today. Another substantial drop. 

A substantial drop in testing too though. There continues to be a correlation between testing going up and down and daily case numbers going up and down (relative to the previous day). I won't be totally confident in case numbers truly going down until I see a day where testing increased form the previous day but case numbers go down from the previous day. That will really be a strong indicator of us getting the better of this outbreak. I also won't start getting too hopeful we can beat this outbreak until we get days in a row with single digit cases per day. And I won't feel confident until we get some zero days. We also need to have several days in a row where no new locations of interest are added to the list, in fact we actually need to get to a state of there being no new locations of interest on an ongoing basis. Every new location of interest is another possible super-spreader event which could turn this outbreak on its head in one horrible moment.

The health dept is saying their estimate is the R value is less than 1, which is good.

764 cases to date, 43 cases have been hospitalised, 9 are in ICU/HDU. So current case hospitalisation rate is 5.6%, case ICU/HDU rate is 1.2%. Several cases are people who have been fully vaccinated. I don't think any fully vaccinated people have been hospitalised.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

https://kfgo.com/2021/09/02/vietnam-pm-warns-of-long-coronavirus-fight-as-crisis-deepens/

"Just 2.9% of Vietnam’s population have been inoculated, while its fatality rate of 2.5% is higher than the global rate of 2.1%, according to the health ministry."

I'm not the first to suggest it on these boards, but maybe we should forgo thinking about boosters for a while.

[Fragile Bird]

55 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

https://kfgo.com/2021/09/02/vietnam-pm-warns-of-long-coronavirus-fight-as-crisis-deepens/

"Just 2.9% of Vietnam’s population have been inoculated, while its fatality rate of 2.5% is higher than the global rate of 2.1%, according to the health ministry."

I'm not the first to suggest it on these boards, but maybe we should forgo thinking about boosters for a while.

Well, boosters have been approved here for the immuno-compromised, narrowly defined, like people getting chemotherapy for hematological cancers, transplant patients and recipients of an anti-CD20 agent, plus residents of high-risk settings such as long-term care homes. I don’t mind that. Health officials have already said booster shots for anyone else are unlikely for a while.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

15 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Well, boosters have been approved here for the immuno-compromised, narrowly defined, like people getting chemotherapy for hematological cancers, transplant patients and recipients of an anti-CD20 agent, plus residents of high-risk settings such as long-term care homes. I don’t mind that. Health officials have already said booster shots for anyone else are unlikely for a while.

That's fair.

I was just looking at the global vaccine stats and here are countries that are shockingly low. I was also impressed at how much Canada has leap-frogged the US in recent months. That's a bit crazy when you think about how the big news story in the spring was how much Canada had fallen behind other countries in terms of vaccinations.

My mail-in ballot arrives tomorrow...

[BigFatCoward]

5 hours ago, Zorral said:

So why are most of the hospitalized here in the USA, who have utterly overwhelmed the Florida, TX etc. hospital systems, in their 30's and younger? and unvaccinated?

They said 'less likely' not couldn't end up in hospital. Younger people are less likely to have serious covid complications/death.

They are filling up the hospitals as they have lower vaccine numbers than the elderly, because young people are fucking idiots about covid. 

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, BigFatCoward said:

They said 'less likely' not couldn't end up in hospital. Younger people are less likely to have serious covid complications/death.

They are filling up the hospitals as they have lower vaccine numbers than the elderly, because young people are fucking idiots about covid. 

I remember last year there was a lot of talk about a higher initial viral load leading to more severe cases(was mostly about young health care workers).

[DireWolfSpirit]

13 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

 

I'm getting to the point where I'm beyond caring. Give them the goddamn horse pills and get it over with already.  

I was under the impression that the covidiots favored rectally administering the Ivermectin?

Not certain why this would be their choice unless it's just a case of them finding the pill form less stimulating?

[A wilding]

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

was under the impression that the covidiots favored rectally administering the Ivermectin?

Not certain why this would be their choice unless it's just a case of them finding the pill form less stimulating?

I expect that just amused the trolls who sold them on the idea of using it

[Padraig]

9 hours ago, Raja said:

We don't know that yet, especially as if the specific age group they are talking about there have a large percentage already vaccinated. As has been explained before, if 85% plus of that age group is vaccinated, you will see cases & hospitalizations amongst the vaccinated as they make up such a large percentage. As an aside, I agree with you that Israel has 60%ish at two doses, which is why they are seeing a large outbreak right now, especially as they got rid of all restrictions.

In addition, 2 days ago, the European CDC has come out with this recommendation regarding boosters at present, and looking at all the data so far, I agree with them.

The bolded is particularly important, especially the first bit that the primary outcome we should be looking at is hospitalizations & deaths. And of course other outcomes are important, i.e. we want as few people getting covid as possible, but in the context of a lot of the world not getting first doses, the primary outcome should remain severe disease.

That all seems fair.  While there may be a case for boosters, that doesn't mean its the best use of (still very limited) resources.  And, yes, while they may have noticed a a decline in immunity from those vaccinated in Jan v April, I'm not sure were they comparing like with like.  Comparing 90 year olds vaccinated in Jan with 40 year olds vaccinated in April would be misleading.

[Filippa Eilhart]

I wonder what will happen when the vaccine passes begin to expire? Will the EU recommend boosters then? Or give up the passes altogether?

[rotting sea cow]

9 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

I wonder what will happen when the vaccine passes begin to expire? Will the EU recommend boosters then? Or give up the passes altogether?

What do you think?

Do you think they will quickly give up such wonderful social tool? Probably first it will be expanded for boosters, next for other vaccines and maybe for other things. It will be merged into your digital ID and linked to your bank account. Not unlike the Chinese social credit.

Sorry if I sound bonkers to you, but things like that are being suggested.

 

[Fragile Bird]

I’m just watching Dr. Scott Gottlieb on CNBC saying the Delta wave hasn’t even started in many parts of the US. The return of students to schools after Labor Day is going to be the vector for community transmission, for a ‘dense spread’ of infection. What’s happening in the south will spread.

And, like others believe, Covid-19 will become endemic, circulating in the winter along with the flu. This will reduce productivity in society and will require behavior modification in order to return to a ‘normal’ that won’t be like what we used to consider normal. Mask wearing indoors!

Also, Pfizer will be using the same vaccine for children aged 5-11, just in a reduced dose, 10 mg instead of 30. They expect to file applications by the end of October, best-case scenario.

[lessthanluke]

2 hours ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

I wonder what will happen when the vaccine passes begin to expire? Will the EU recommend boosters then? Or give up the passes altogether?

Hopefully get rid of them as they make no sense in the first place.

[The Anti-Targ]

6 minutes ago, lessthanluke said:

Hopefully get rid of them as they make no sense in the first place.

People won't be getting in here without one. But I don't think it makes much sense if you want to go to your local pub.

[Heartofice]

Uk body refuses to green light vaccines for 12-15 year olds

Quote

But as children are at such low risk from the virus, the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation decided that vaccination would offer only "marginal gain" and, therefore, there was "insufficient" evidence to offer mass vaccination to this age group.

Prof Wei Shen Lim, chairman of Covid immunisation for the JCVI said it was "taking a precautionary approach".

"The margin of benefit is considered too small to support universal Covid-19 vaccination for this age group at this time. 

"The committee will continue to review safety data as they emerge," he added.

The JCVI's advice is that a larger group of at-risk children aged 12 to 15 should be offered a vaccine.

 

[Caligula_K3]

Vaccine passports make sense for multiple reasons.

1. They incentivize vaccinations among many people. We've seen this in provinces in Canada and countries in Europe that institute them. Carrots have had little effect (like Quebec's vaccine lottery). The stick of a vaccine passport has led to massive uptakes in appointments for first doses (Ontario has already seen this in the past 24 hours). So, on a basic level, these passports perform a public good by making people be responsible, even if for selfish reasons.

2. They make it safer for patrons and staff of restaurants, pubs, gyms, etc... Yes, people who are vaccinated can still get COVID. Yes, if they're infected, they can still spread it at the same rate as the unvaccinated. But it's clear now from follow-up studies that vaccinated people are a) much less likely to get COVID to begin with than the unvaccinated and b) are sick/symptomatic/capable of transmission for a much shorter period. So, these passports don't eliminate risk, but they do reduce it massively.

3. That means lockdowns that require the shutdown of restaurants/bars/gyms are less likely to be needed. The majority of restaurant owners in Canadian provinces that have been polled are in favour of these passports, because they understand that if these places become major vectors of spread, then they may be shut down again. Nobody wants that.

4. We're in a fucking pandemic. Comparisons to Chinese social credit are bonkers. In places like Quebec with a vaccine passport, your name and a QR code with your vaccination status are shown. Nobody is keeping track of your info. And does your freedom from the vaccine supersede the freedom of an immunocompromised person to not get infected and hospitalized/

Many places long before this have required you to have vaccines to enter countries or go to schools. It's a way of keeping everyone safe and preventing outbreaks of easily spreadable diseases (or, in this case, of preventing outbreaks and lowering hospitalizations/deaths. I had to get all sorts of vaccines to attend university, because mine had expired. That's a good thing. And this is much less restrictive than that. In the end, if you don't give a fuck enough about your community to get a vaccine because you don't care or because you've watched too many Tucker Carlson videos, that's your choice. But choices have consequences, especially in times of emergency. No beer for you. Come back, one year.