Are the best years of our civilization still to come?

[Altherion]

This topic is inspired by @Arakan's post in the current US Politics thread which I thought deserves its own topic. Do people think that on the whole things are still getting better and, despite the obvious setback that is the coronavirus, the world will improve in the next few decades? I can see arguments for both possibilities and any answer is of course a guess or a feeling (unless you have a time machine), but it would be interesting to see how people feel about this now.

I can see arguments for both sides, but my personal view is that despite the climate issue and the widespread incompetence of our leaders, the world will continue to get better for most people simply because there are many very intelligent people everywhere working on practically every problem facing humanity. What do you think?

[Luzifer's right hand]

Things don't look that bad if you ignore climate change and the ongoing mass extinction event.

We are having a good time on borrowed time.

[Darzin]

Yes absolutely, the world is becoming more proserpous than it has ever been.  In past few decades numerous countries have lifted themselves out of grinding poverty. People are living longer lives, and we are starting to reach the culmination of  the rights movement of the 60s. Liberal values reign supreme granted not in every country but if a government falls it's usually a liberal one which replaces it, and you don't have a competeing illiberal ideology like Marxism-leninism during the Cold War. We have increased technology increased convienence. 

Climate change is probably the biggest threat and it will really harm some countries like Bangleddesh, but most of the world should be able to mitigate the effects and still keep a reasonably high standard of living.

As for the much vaunted decline of democracy people you don't like getting elected is not a decline in democracy. 

[felice]

1 hour ago, Altherion said:

the world will continue to get better for most people simply because there are many very intelligent people everywhere working on practically every problem facing humanity.

The problem is the intelligent well-intentioned people coming up with solutions to problems aren't generally in a position to implement their solutions. If the people with money and power don't expect their personal benefit to outweigh the cost, it's generally not going to happen. And this is a civilization where a significant fraction of the population would rather take horse de-wormer than get vaccinated during a global pandemic. We're not a species that's good at making sensible decisions.

[DMC]

No.

[Arakan]

26 minutes ago, Darzin said:

Yes absolutely, the world is becoming more proserpous than it has ever been.  In past few decades numerous countries have lifted themselves out of grinding poverty. People are living longer lives, and we are starting to reach the culmination of  the rights movement of the 60s. Liberal values reign supreme granted not in every country but if a government falls it's usually a liberal one which replaces it, and you don't have a competeing illiberal ideology like Marxism-leninism during the Cold War. We have increased technology increased convienence. 

Climate change is probably the biggest threat and it will really harm some countries like Bangleddesh, but most of the world should be able to mitigate the effects and still keep a reasonably high standard of living.

As for the much vaunted decline of democracy people you don't like getting elected is not a decline in democracy. 

Your first paragraph is totally negated by your second. As of now we already know or have an idea what it will cost to mitigate the worst effects of climate change and it looks bleak. That’s for rich Western countries only. Our way of life is not sustainable. The further accumulation of wealth is exactly what is unsustainable. Then your point about liberal democracy being on a winning streak, sorry but that’s not the reality. The former Eastern Bloc countries going full authoritarian in some form of clerical-fascism, see Hungary or Poland. Turkey is on an all-time low in democracy and liberty terms. Granted that’s the European view, but this trend to populism and proto-fascist tendencies can be seen all over the world, see Brazil or India. Mexico is a failed narco-state which only will get worse with decreasing Pemex revenues. Pakistan is a failed state. Russia is morphing into a second Tsarist Empire in all but name. China is in full authoritarian grip. 

I don’t see many socio-cultural success stories. Granted, almost everyone on the planet has a smartphone nowadays and in theory access to incredible knowledge, well at least as long as the internet isn’t censored (see China, Turkey). 

The picture you paint smells like something from the mid 90s, a la Fukuyama. Meanwhile the Taliban are back, Syria, Libya in civil war chaos. Iraq and Egypt semi-stable under Iron grip of the ruling administration. Where is all the progress?

[JGP]

 

[Rippounet]

No.

I'll bite - shouldn't bother, but whatever.

Just asking the question is sheer lunacy. Or ignorance on such a level that the mind boggles. No amount of optimism should let anyone even consider the question.
What climate change and the anthropocene show is that the current "civilisation" is a dead end. We'll be lucky to get out of it without nations crumbling and billions dying.
The *best-case scenario* at this point is that a combination of courageous political decisions, social evolutions, and technological innovations allow us to somewhat preserve our most basic comforts and that we only have to sacrifice illusions of comfort and abundance (like those coming from planned obscolescence).
Except of course, this best-case scenario isn't happening right now. We're so far from seeing courageous political decisions that one wonders what kind of authoritarianism will have to emerge to achieve that.

Consumerism and unbriddled capitalism are death traps, that much is clear, but we just can't seem to find a way out. Neither the elite nor the masses know what to do, so we keep going full throttle toward a wall that is the end of everything we know.
But we do it with internet memes and ice-cream so it's A-ok for most people.

Of course, something better will emerge eventually. If we acted now, the transition could be over in as early as 50 years. But we aren't doing shit, which means we're turning our own planet into a toxic environment that will last centuries before we get to "better years."

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

In past few decades numerous countries have lifted themselves out of grinding poverty.

"Numerous," really? I wonder how you define "grinding poverty" then.
Apart from China, what countries have achieved this?

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

People are living longer lives,

Ironically enough, life expectancy has actually gone down in both the United States and Russia, the two "superpowers" of the second half of the 20th century.

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

we are starting to reach the culmination of  the rights movement of the 60s.

Yeah, electing Trump was a real culmination all right. Not to mention the documented rise of the far-right throughout the West (and beyond ; see Brazil or India) is really encouraging.

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

Liberal values reign supreme

*Economic neo-liberal values reign supreme.

And by now it's been demonstrated by quite a few brilliant minds that neo-liberalism is hostile to democracy on the one hand, and to the wellbeing of the masses on the other. Under neo-liberalism, "freedom" is the freedom to exploit and dominate - but with Coca-Cola and StarWars for everyone.

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

if a government falls it's usually a liberal one which replaces it,

lol

Brother, you're smoking some serious stuff and/or have been living under a rock or something?

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

We have increased technology increased convienence.

Also, technology-increased surveillance.

BTW, do you live in China?

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

Climate change is probably the biggest threat and it will really harm some countries like Bangleddesh, but most of the world should be able to mitigate the effects and still keep a reasonably high standard of living.

Wealthy countries are not "most of the world." And it's not even certain that wealthy countries will manage that well. Right now, I'm not sure the huge fires we're seeing in Australia, the US, or Greece show the world "mitigating" the effects of climate change.

Bangladesh alone is home to over 162 million people. So even if climate change was magically limited to Bangladesh, we'd still be talking about dozens of millions of climate refugees. That alone would be a crisis of epic proportions.
But it's the whole world we're talking about. Rising see levels for as long as 2,000 years will affect over a third of humanity for instance. Rising temperatures could make a quarter of the globe uninhabitable... etc, etc.
Bangladesh crumbling  isn't even a decent prelude to what we're going to witness before the end of the century.

It never ceases to amaze me how some people can seriously say that climate change won't be that big a problem. I mean, sure, if you don't mind hundreds of millions (at least) dying. Sure, if you're ok with building walls protected by the military (with shoot-onsight orders or close enough, because millions are not going to let walls alone deter them). Sure, if you can enjoy your way of life while remaining blissfully unaware of its cost.
And sure, if you're willing to give up any sense of morality to buy just a few more things.

4 hours ago, Darzin said:

As for the much vaunted decline of democracy people you don't like getting elected is not a decline in democracy. 

Elections are not in themselves democracy.
Elections only have democratic value if they lead to control over collective resources, when large sectors of the economy are not run for profit: health, education, and justice come to mind.
If there are fewer "commons" to manage democratically, then elections are increasingly pointless. Which is part of the reason why abstention is rising in many Western countries. If, according to neo-liberal doctrine, everything becomes "private," then by definition, voting is almost useless.

[Fez]

Maybe. If we can make through the coming century or two of trash fires and out the other end, I could see some major flourishing as technology reaches the point of us being able to begin colonizing the solar system. Now you can argue that any such future version of our civilization can never be "the best" because of the moral stain of the billions who died or suffered from climate change before it reached that point; but I'm not sure it would be any worse than the moral stain that, say, the US has already with the Native American genocide, or Europe has with colonialism, and so on.

[Darzin]

52 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

"Numerous," really? I wonder how you define "grinding poverty" then.
Apart from China, what countries have achieved this?

China, Singapore, South Korea, with Vietnam well on the way. If we are reaching a little farther back all of the post USSR countries ( and I realize their standard dropped with the fall). With Countries like Thailand and Malaysia doing well too. Even Africa while lagging is overall much better than 1980. Your right that the two old super powers are lagging but the world overall is getting better.

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Yeah, electing Trump was a real culmination all right. Not to mention the documented rise of the far-right throughout the West (and beyond ; see Brazil or India) is really encouraging.

Trump for all his pugnacious bigotry  was the first president elected who supported gay marriage. The new right in Europe xenophobic as they are frame their arguments against immigrants in terms of protecting the LGB community and women's rights  Everywhere in the western world human rights are triumphing and these right ring resitances agianst it accept most of the gains and direct most of their ire against foriegners not the rights of their citizens.

1 hour ago, Rippounet said:

Also, technology-increased surveillance.

BTW, do you live in China?

I do, and while yes China is not a free country, it has never been so, and here there is a tremendous optimism for the future people now are enjoying a standard and quality of life that was unheard of in living memory. Like yes the government monitors your Wechat account, but that's a lot better than getting beaten to death in a struggle session or starving do to lack of rice. rule of law and strength of institutions, while not at all compareable to western countries have been dramatically improving along with the economy. 

[Mentat]

I've been trying to find a chart that shows a reliable quality of life indicator and it's evolution (globally, by countries or, preferably, both) over the last few decades, but my Google-fu has thus far failed me.

Could someone help me out?

[Luzifer's right hand]

1 hour ago, Mentat said:

I've been trying to find a chart that shows a reliable quality of life indicator and it's evolution (globally, by countries or, preferably, both) over the last few decades, but my Google-fu has thus far failed me.

Could someone help me out?

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think does a good job at looking it the good stuff.

 It mostly ignores climate change and mass extinction but that is the only way to be optimistic.

[Prue]

I think that things will probably get a lot worse before enough people finally wake up and begin to fight climate change. It's very probable that this is our 'Golden 20s' dance on the volcano, and the depression of the 30s is not far away....

Wastefulness and cutthroat capitalism can't continue this way. There is no unlimited growth possible if you have limited resources.

[DMC]

2 hours ago, Mentat said:

Could someone help me out?

I'm not sure exactly what you're looking for, but data from the World Happiness Report is readily available.  If you're asking about items that go back decades, I could probably find something like that, but I'd need more specifics in terms of the items.

[Arakan]

29 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Factfulness: Ten Reasons We're Wrong About the World--and Why Things Are Better Than You Think does a good job at looking it the good stuff.

 It mostly ignores climate change and mass extinction but that is the only way to be optimistic.

Not only this. It ignores the fragility of „progress“. But that’s typical human fallacy. When you grow up in stable environments, you take stability for granted. 99% of Yugoslavs in the mid 80s couldn’t imagine massacres, war and destruction only 10 years later. I could have never imagined a mob of a few thousands lunatics storming the Capitol, leaving more than half a dozen dead behind. Regency bias works both ways. 

[Mentat]

3 minutes ago, DMC said:

I'm not sure exactly what you're looking for, but data from the World Happiness Report is readily available.  If you're asking about items that go back decades, I could probably find something like that, but I'd need more specifics in terms of the items.

I'm basically looking for a handy graph that shows evolution of some kind of aggregated quality of life indicator (like Human Development Index , Better Life Index, Genuine Progress Indicator...) over the last few decades (globally, by countries or, preferably, both).

[A True Kaniggit]

Anyone want to go in with me on an underground , self sustaining colony in the middle of the least populated parts of the continenal U.S. ? I’m good for $300. 
 

We can call it a vault. 
 

After civilization is mostly destroyed we can leave the vault and have wacky adventures in the post apocalyptic wasteland. 

[DMC]

7 minutes ago, Mentat said:

like Human Development Index

Searching HDI index over time should get you pretty close.

[Heartofice]

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/human-development-index?time=1996

[Mentat]

3 minutes ago, Heartofice said:

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/human-development-index?time=1996

Thanks. So according to said graph (and if we trust said indicator), things have been getting better over the last two decades (in some countries such as China and India there's a relatively sharp and sustained upwards progression, in countries with a higher baseline back in 1980, progress is there, but it's slower). We lack the last four years, though, which have undoubtedly been tough.

 

For people who believe things are going to get worse in the future: Do you believe numbers will plateau for some years and then start a progressive decline? Do you believe the decline will be sharp and dramatic? What's your best estimate for the peak year? (maybe you believe it's somewhere between 2017 and 2021?).