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Fragile Bird

Covid-19 #38: As the Worm Turns

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42 minutes ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

She was away at school.  She also works in a grocery store that doesn’t enforce mask requirements.  So, school or work…
 

Ya.  Well, I'm glad it seems to be -- so far -- relatively mild.  

~~~~~~~~~~

In the meantime in a different direction, though it seems no one can barely be arsed to to take notice or report, new cases of covid are now as high as they were in January.

https://bismarcktribune.com/news/local/health/active-virus-cases-top-3-000-in-north-dakota-for-first-time-since-last-year/article_a54603de-d8a1-596b-ae1e-be3c7462a24f.html

 

Edited by Zorral

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Ser Scot, hope your daughter recovers quickly and easily.

 

I've just returned from making a brief appearance at what is undoubtedly a Covid spreading event.  I was already a bit concerned about the event so had planned on only stopping by, but it was even worse than I envisioned.  It was my cousin's bridal shower, it was indoors in a not large space with poor ventilation.  No one was wearing a mask.  As more people arrived, it got louder and louder and everyone stood together closely basically shouting at one another.  If even one person in that group has unsystematic Covid, I can see the bulk of the people in the room getting it from this event.

My aunt expressed dismay to me that some of the ladies had embraced and hugged her...my aunt is a doctor, was unmasked, and somehow felt unable to say no.  Meanwhile, I stayed near the door and refused anyone who wanted to embrace or hug me - some non relatives were offended by this and I did not care!  My cousins understood and put masks on when talking to me...but then took them off as soon as we were done.  I was double masked in a N95 mask and a cloth mask.  I only went because it was a few blocks from my house and I just wanted to show up and support my cousin since its been such a sucky year with the wedding being endlessly delayed.  I left after 20 minutes.  I am not going to the wedding.

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7 hours ago, Heartofice said:

Secondly, because Sturgeon & the SNP are basically authoritarians and this kinda fits. 

That doesn't sound right.

On 9/10/2021 at 4:41 PM, Gorn said:

Denmark took an incremental approach to removing restrictions, which seems to have been the best approach.  Their cases have fallen significantly after their initial Delta surge.  So they seem to be on the right path, as long as they remain flexible.

Spain has now passed 75% fully vaccinated and are close to 80% partially vaccinated (of their total populatation).  Like Denmark, their case rate has also plummeted.  High vaccination rates and moderate changes to restrictions is working.  I hope it continues.  Some countries do seem to have avoided a major surge.  Italy's numbers are declining after only a moderate Delta surge.  Getting the vaccination rate up before Delta hit may have made enough of a difference there.  I'm curious about countries like Poland and Hungary.  Their COVID rates remain really low, despite relatively poor vaccination rates.

A few more studies have been released.

https://scitechdaily.com/covid-19-vaccines-effective-against-delta-variant-how-pfizer-moderna-and-jj-compare/

Quote

Moderna was 95 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations among adults ages 18 and older.
Pfizer was 80 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations among adults ages 18 and older.
Johnson & Johnson was 60 percent effective at preventing hospitalizations among adults ages 18 and older.

It looked at 32,000 patients from nine US states during June, July and August 2021.  Another study showing Moderna on top.

This article doesn't talk about the age of patients but it certainly suggests weakness in the Chinese vaccine.  Sputnik seems robust compared to Pfizer and AZ.  If only they could give WHO/EU their workings!

https://www.jpost.com/health-and-wellness/coronavirus/covid-vaccines-pfizer-astrazeneca-sputnik-v-more-effective-than-sinopharm-study-679130

I suppose people wouldn't be surprised at this but the FDA approval didn't cause a surge in new vaccinations.

https://www.businessinsider.com/fda-approval-pfizer-covid-vaccine-no-vaccination-spike-2021-9?r=US&IR=T

A shout out to Astrazeneca, as the only manufacturer to allow their vaccine to be used in trials of other vaccines.  An unexpected complexity.

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/vaccine-makers-should-supply-shots-trials-help-spur-sector-cepi-2021-09-07/

Quote

"Lack of access to comparator vaccines is already stalling the development of promising vaccine candidates, and the potential impact on COVID-19 vaccine development and supply is huge," Melanie Saville, director of vaccine research and development at CEPI, said in a statement,

And this is paywalled but gives a lot of info on US boosters. Seems complicated!

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/03/us/politics/coronavirus-booster-shots.html

Edited by Padraig

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37 minutes ago, lady narcissa said:

 

Ser Scot, hope your daughter recovers quickly and easily.

 

Thank you.  We’re doing what we can.

@Padraig

I got the Moderna vaccine.  My kids got Phizer (only one approved for kids.)

I have no symptoms.  I’m going to schedule a COVID rapid test for Thursday.

Edited by Ser Scot A Ellison

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2 hours ago, lady narcissa said:

Ser Scot, hope your daughter recovers quickly and easily.

 

I've just returned from making a brief appearance at what is undoubtedly a Covid spreading event.  I was already a bit concerned about the event so had planned on only stopping by, but it was even worse than I envisioned.  It was my cousin's bridal shower, it was indoors in a not large space with poor ventilation.  No one was wearing a mask.  As more people arrived, it got louder and louder and everyone stood together closely basically shouting at one another.  If even one person in that group has unsystematic Covid, I can see the bulk of the people in the room getting it from this event.

My aunt expressed dismay to me that some of the ladies had embraced and hugged her...my aunt is a doctor, was unmasked, and somehow felt unable to say no.  Meanwhile, I stayed near the door and refused anyone who wanted to embrace or hug me - some non relatives were offended by this and I did not care!  My cousins understood and put masks on when talking to me...but then took them off as soon as we were done.  I was double masked in a N95 mask and a cloth mask.  I only went because it was a few blocks from my house and I just wanted to show up and support my cousin since its been such a sucky year with the wedding being endlessly delayed.  I left after 20 minutes.  I am not going to the wedding.

For those feeling some obligation to attend these sorts of events and needing to protect oneself from infection I would suggest finding some kind of eye covering as well. If there is SARS-COV2 floating around at such events then chances are an infectious dose will come in contact with your eye mucosa and that's the only invitation the virus needs.

And now, this:

Quote

Australia's Dr Kerry Chant said around 2500 words at Thursday's New South Wales Covid-19 press conference. But it took just three of them for her to go global.

An innocent slip of the tongue from the state's chief health officer has sent some corners of the internet into a spin, led to furious commentary by fringe commentators and pricked up the ears of conspiracy theorists everywhere.

It's also led to articles appearing in newspapers around the world.

Those three short words were: "new world order".

But was it innocent? ;)

Quote

British actor turned anti-Covid-19 restrictions campaigner Laurence Fox shared a clip of Dr Chant to his near 400,000 followers on Twitter.

In the US, a former chairwoman of the Nevada Republican Party posted a heavily edited video of Dr Chant repeating the phrase over and over calling it "insanity".

"Is the Australian government trying to rile everyone up or do they just want everyone to know that they no longer care about keeping their ambitions secret?" asked Tarkanian.

In Australia, conservative far-right campaigner Kirralie Smith posted on social media "but yeah, we are the conspiracy [sic] theorists", referring to Dr Chant's comments.

 

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

I got the Moderna vaccine.  My kids got Phizer (only one approved for kids.)

Pfizer should be more than good enough for kids.  (And most adults too).  Good luck with it!

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54 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

For those feeling some obligation to attend these sorts of events and needing to protect oneself from infection I would suggest finding some kind of eye covering as well. If there is SARS-COV2 floating around at such events then chances are an infectious dose will come in contact with your eye mucosa and that's the only invitation the virus needs.

And now, this:

But was it innocent? ;)

 

Uh, what was she supposed to have said instead?

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4 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Uh, what was she supposed to have said instead?

She was meant to keep her mouth shut! And not let the plan for world domination slip!!!

But seriously, I think when people have prepared scripts for these kinds of things they've tended to use the more benign "our new reality", or "this new reality".

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2 hours ago, Ser Scot A Ellison said:

Thank you.  We’re doing what we can.

@Padraig

I got the Moderna vaccine.  My kids got Phizer (only one approved for kids.)

I have no symptoms.  I’m going to schedule a COVID rapid test for Thursday.

Well, that there was the problem, they got the cheap dollar store knock off version of the Pfizer vaccine. :D

Sorry, shouldn't make light of the situation.

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5 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Well, that there was the problem, they got the cheap dollar store knock off version of the Pfizer vaccine. :D

Sorry, shouldn't make light of the situation.

What else can we do.  It sucks might as well laugh.

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The quest stands on the edge of a knife, stray but a little and it will fail to the ruin of us all.

NZ reports 33 cases today. Still too many cases (like 3 or 4) cropping up with no immediate link to existing cases.

Speaking of straying A LOT. Never mind the sex romp in Middlemore hospital. It's the selfish arseholes that decide they are exempt because they are special and run off to the South Island for a holiday abusing their border crossing exemption as essential workers. I think the law is going to come down on this couple hard to hopefully deter others who might have similar ideas.

Some reassuring words from one of our, very credible, celebrity scientists, Siouxie Wiles.

Quote

33 new cases today. That’s a big number so may make you feel really uneasy. Remember what the Director-General said yesterday: lots of day 12 tests due so are expecting circa 50 cases from those. Good news is 32 of those cases are linked.

Though for me one unlinked case is one too many, but it does put the 33 in context.

And for a bit of levity:

https://thespinoff.co.nz/books/12-09-2021/ashley-bloomfield-fan-art-reaches-new-level-with-erotic-fiction-blooming-desire/

Quote

Dr. Ashley Bloomfield fan art reaches new level with romance novella

Sam Brooks talks to the author of Instagram romance novella 'Blooming Desire' about his work, and a fanfiction scholar on why so many of us want to read it.

“No need for a four pm press conference.”

“Yes, Prime Minister.”

She did her best not to quiver with excitement. He smiled his boyish smile at her, his striking blue eyes sparkling behind his glasses. 

She wondered whether he enjoyed calling her Prime Minister as much as she enjoyed hearing it.

I don't think I would be included in the "us" on this front.

Edited by The Anti-Targ

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37 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

The quest stands on the edge of a knife, stray but a little and it will fail to the ruin of us all.

NZ reports 33 cases today. Still too many cases (like 3 or 4) cropping up with no immediate link to existing cases.

That's a worry. All community cases in the past three days, bar 2 or 3 each day, are in the CM DHB. Lets hope the downward trend returns in the next couple days though the new locations of interest don't give me that hope. The inclement weather in Auckland is helping keep people indoors, but you've got a couple weeks before daylight savings starts on the 26th, coupled with the mercury rising, it'll make it more challenging. All the best!

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Quote

Johns Hopkins University's Amesh Adalja told Breakfast he's never agreed with the approach adopted here [NZ] and in Australia...

Adalja added he believes Covid-19 will still exist in a post-pandemic world and that countries will need to learn to live with the virus, expecting to record cases still. 

He says countries will need to develop a "baseline" for the number of cases, hospitalisations and deaths linked to Covid-19 that it deems acceptable moving forward. 

...

"There's an opportunity here to do this right. You've never really had a hard time with Covid-19."

Fricken idiot, despite being highly educated and a smart dude.  

It's all very well for him as an academic to say the govt needs to decide how many deaths we can live with. But what politician is going to survive an election when the policy they are putting in place is going to kill X number of people, at least? Politicians like to say "our actions have prevented X deaths", but whatever relaxation will cause the disease to establish here can't be spun to a death prevention claim. Govts that failed to eliminate or never really tried have only ever had to talk about "this is how we are going to try to limit sever illness and death". So the govt has put itself in a difficult position in having to at some stage say (in effect but not is so many words), "this is how we are going to let some of you die."

Delta has thrown a major spanner in the works for NZ, because the whole plan with elimination was let's get a vaccine that will give us the herd immunity we all thought would be possible with 65%-80% vaccination, and then free up movements and never go back into lockdown. And it was a great plan at the time, and still is a great plan, up to a point. So objectively this guy is wrong in being against the policy from the start, and almost all of NZ's infectious diseases and epidemiology experts would say he's wrong. But we now have a dilemma, herd immunity is not within sight either through natural infection or vaccination without a different vaccine that is orders of magnitude better at preventing breakthrough infection.

Human infectious disease and epidemiology academics are not all that well clued up on the fact that in the plant and animal world we are keeping so many countries free of diseases and pests through international cooperation and rules of movement and trade that the idea of keeping countries free of any given disease is not much of a challenge, when there is a cooperative will to do so. It is possible to do it with COVID too, so long as there is the cooperative will to do it. It is the fact that humans are so damned uncooperative that's the problem, not that it is technically unachievable. And academics proclaiming that indefinite elimination is unsustainable drives that narrative so people become less inclined to want to cooperate to maintain that status.

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8 hours ago, Padraig said:

Denmark took an incremental approach to removing restrictions, which seems to have been the best approach.  Their cases have fallen significantly after their initial Delta surge.  So they seem to be on the right path, as long as they remain flexible.

Spain has now passed 75% fully vaccinated and are close to 80% partially vaccinated (of their total populatation).  Like Denmark, their case rate has also plummeted.  High vaccination rates and moderate changes to restrictions is working.  I hope it continues.  Some countries do seem to have avoided a major surge.  Italy's numbers are declining after only a moderate Delta surge.  Getting the vaccination rate up before Delta hit may have made enough of a difference there.  I'm curious about countries like Poland and Hungary.  Their COVID rates remain really low, despite relatively poor vaccination rates.

 

Spain, like Denmark, also has really low hospitalizations right now. They have the capacity to deal with a surge should they need to impose restrictions again. This is an important detail.

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I would point out that a very high proportion of these new infections are children - thus presumably this is Delta spreading within a household.

Frankly, New Zealand's experience is pushing it ever-more towards Indefinite Border Closure.

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I don't think the public mood is there to support indefinite border closure, and I don't even know it's there for indefinite border restrictions that are a little bit less than closure but still keep the aim to maintain elimination. If Auckland had gone to level 3 today, and then to level 2 next week, the public support for more lockdowns might have remained. But with at least 2 more weeks of lockdown, in Auckland, and maybe 3 not enough people are going to be willing to put up with a repeat that will be inevitable at least once within the next 12 months.

If this government persists on that track without a large majority in support for it, they will lose the 2023 election to the suite of parties who will campaign to fully re-open the borders ("if you're vaxxed your safe, if you're not then that's your problem, individual responsibility and all that" both statements being false, at least for some, but simple enough for a slogan to carry a party to victory). And with that mandate from the public, even though the public won't really appreciate that it will mean death for some of those who voted for it, and some of those who didn't, the next government will have a get out of gaol free card for all the deaths the opening of the border will bring.

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Interesting story out of China: their latest outbreak is being linked to a man who travelled to Singapore. He was in quarantine for 21 days upon his return and tested negative multiple times. Then there was an outbreak at the school his children attended, and he tested positive, on Day 37.

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35 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

Interesting story out of China: their latest outbreak is being linked to a man who travelled to Singapore. He was in quarantine for 21 days upon his return and tested negative multiple times. Then there was an outbreak at the school his children attended, and he tested positive, on Day 37.

That is the official story.  I have to say, I have some doubts on that timeline.

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There have been several cases like that. Like the Argentinian ship that was out at sea for 50 days or so before having a COVID outbreak.

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‘Their Crisis’ Is ‘Our Problem’: Washington Grapples With Idaho Covid Cases
Hospitals in Washington State, already strained, are taking on an influx of Covid patients from Idaho, where the governor has refused to require masks or vaccinations.

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/13/us/coronavirus-hospitals-washington-idaho.html

Quote

 

SPOKANE, Wash. — Surgeries to remove brain tumors have been postponed. Patients are backed up in the emergency room. Nurses are working brutal shifts. But at Providence Sacred Heart Medical Center in Spokane, Wash., the calls keep coming: Can Idaho send another patient across the border?

Washington State is reeling under its own surge of coronavirus cases. But in neighboring Idaho, 20 miles down Interstate 90 from Spokane, unchecked virus transmission has already pushed hospitals beyond their breaking point.

“As they’ve seen increasing Covid volumes, we’ve seen increasing calls for help from all over northern Idaho,” Dr. Daniel Getz, chief medical officer for Providence Sacred Heart, said in an interview. As he spoke, a medical helicopter descended with a new delivery.

At a time when Washington State hospitals are delaying procedures and struggling with their own high caseloads, some leaders in the state see Idaho’s outsourcing of Covid patients as a troubling example of how the failure to aggressively confront the virus in one state can deepen a crisis in another.

On the Washington side of the border, residents must wear masks when gathering indoors, students who are exposed to Covid face quarantine requirements, and many workers are under vaccination orders. On the Idaho side, none of those precautions are in place.

“It’s ridiculous,” said Cassie Sauer, the president of the Washington State Hospital Association. “If you have your health care system melting down, the idea that you would not immediately issue a mask mandate is just bizarre. They need to be doing everything they can possibly do.”

Last week, Idaho took the extraordinary step of moving its hospitals in the northern part of the state to crisis standards of care — the threshold at which facilities facing overwhelming caseloads are authorized to ration their resources, perhaps withholding or delaying optimal care for some patients. . . . 

 

Another way we good white supremacist no maskers anti vaxxers  of Idaho got of stickin' it to those gdded liburrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrrals in Washington, hardee har har.  We kill 'em with our covid more way than one!  Hardee har har!

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