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Fragile Bird

Covid-19 #38: As the Worm Turns

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There are a few things to say about Denmark.  Last week, on average, 3 people did die a day.  But over the previous 26 weeks, the average was just over 1 person (i.e. 8 a week).  Denmark is one of the best countries in Europe when it comes to dealing with COVID.  And it also has a very high vaccination rate (74% of the population fully vaccinated).

It has also now removed all restrictions.

https://www.politico.eu/article/denmark-first-eu-lift-coronavirus-restrictions/

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The country's "COVID pass" will no longer be required to enter restaurants, sports centers or nightclubs, and children will no longer automatically be sent home if they come into close contact with a confirmed COVID-19 case. Only those infected have to quarantine. People can go back to the office as normal, and schools are open.

The move is the latest in the country's decisions to ease pandemic measures, including the scrapping of the mask requirement for public transit on August 13. 

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Along with the successful vaccine rollout, experts have pointed to high levels of trust in authorities. Almost three-quarters of adults are fully vaccinated and COVID-19 hospitalization rates are low.

One buzzword that some use is samfundssind, or social mindedness. 

 

Cases have been falling significantly over the last couple of weeks also (and it tests a lot).  You could say it is a good example of a country successfully dealing with COVID (without going the elimination route).

At the same time, risks remain.  Now that all restrictions are gone, will cases start to increase again?  It will be interesting to see what happens over the next few weeks but its incremental approach seems very reasonable so far.

10 hours ago, karaddin said:

As Delta becomes more dominant, due to substantially out competing vanilla, then the risk of that happening diminishes - any further mutations off the Delta variant are going to be starting from the "50 steps east" point and there's not much vanilla left to mutate. This last bit would be part of why someone who actually knows what they're talking about, like Impmk2 and not like me, thinks that an updated vaccine would be a good idea now.

And yes.  That makes sense.  There is a risk around an updated vaccine but potential large benefits also.  I'm just a little surprised that there hasn't been more of a debate on costs v benefits at government/pharma level.  I may have missed it though!

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13 hours ago, Mudguard said:

I'm not sure a single inactivated virus vaccine has been approved yet for coronavirus.

Valneva is one example but it has run into major problems.  The Health Secretary in the UK said the following:

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There are commercial reasons that we have cancelled the contract, but what I can tell her is that it was also clear to us that the vaccine in question that the company was developing would not get approval by the MHRA [The Medicines and Healthcare products Regulatory Agency ] here in the UK.

https://www.bbc.com/news/business-58510519

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The Financial Times reported that in a recent UK trial looking at potential booster jabs, the Valnera vaccine was found to be less effective than some rivals.

However, the vaccine has not yet completed clinical trials.

Suggesting that it would not get approval is quite extreme.  How bad were preliminary results?  It was taking part in a mix and match study between various vaccines.

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I have to say that I'm in the "zero covid, even for an island nation, isn't a long-term strategy."  The rest of the world is not going zero covid.  The whole thing sort of feels like people going through stages of grief in their own ways.  In one corner, you have the denialists who are denying the long term impact of covid on the social and economic fabric of a country, refusing to get vaccinating, and moving through bargaining with horse dewormer.  In another corner, you have denialists who still dream of a zero covid world (that ship sailed IMO a year ago May, or thereabouts) and still advocate ferocious lockdowns to control spread, notwithstanding the fact that long term that is damaging to mental, physical and economic health in other ways.  In the third corner, you have the people bargaining through vaccines - assuming that we can vaccinate our way out.  I mean, we sort of can, but it's a long and fraught road, given that we will be dealing with various mutations.  Think that is a 2024 or 2025 end game at the earliest.  And then, I think there is the fourth way, which is to acknowledge that the virus exists, that it has changed life, and that we need to accept the available tools (vaccination, masks), work on additional therapeutics, and go on with life as safely as we can?

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33 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I have to say that I'm in the "zero covid, even for an island nation, isn't a long-term strategy."  The rest of the world is not going zero covid.  The whole thing sort of feels like people going through stages of grief in their own ways.  In one corner, you have the denialists who are denying the long term impact of covid on the social and economic fabric of a country, refusing to get vaccinating, and moving through bargaining with horse dewormer.  In another corner, you have denialists who still dream of a zero covid world (that ship sailed IMO a year ago May, or thereabouts) and still advocate ferocious lockdowns to control spread, notwithstanding the fact that long term that is damaging to mental, physical and economic health in other ways.  In the third corner, you have the people bargaining through vaccines - assuming that we can vaccinate our way out.  I mean, we sort of can, but it's a long and fraught road, given that we will be dealing with various mutations.  Think that is a 2024 or 2025 end game at the earliest.  And then, I think there is the fourth way, which is to acknowledge that the virus exists, that it has changed life, and that we need to accept the available tools (vaccination, masks), work on additional therapeutics, and go on with life as safely as we can?

I'm for lockdowns for the unvaccinated at this point.

No more postponed surgeries because people don't want to contribute to society.

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21 hours ago, Padraig said:

 

That corner of Europe has amazingly kept numbers low.  It could still hit but Poland/Hungary/Czech remain the best countries in Europe for COVID.  Hope it lasts!  Other countries have had their spike and have come out the other side.  Very contrasting experiences.

I keep shaking my head at Poland’s numbers, I don’t understand how their numbers are so low. However, last year at this time Poland was in far better shape than Canada was, then in late September numbers shot up and the case count and death rate went crazy. I was watching Poland not only because of my ethnicity but because Poland and Canada have almost identical populations. As of today, Poland has had 2,895,223 cases and 75,454 deaths, while Canada has had 1,555,121 cases and 27,262 deaths. 
 

I had mentioned the issue of excess deaths before, and Canada apparently had almost 20,000 excess deaths from January, 2020 to April, 2021. I see Poland had a staggering 24,000 excess deaths in the first quarter of 2021 alone, one of the highest rates in Europe. And, oh hell, I just saw the number for 2020, 82,000, the highest percentage in Europe that year.

And to get to the point I wanted to make, I just looked at the weekly trends chart on Worldometer and the new cases in Poland, while very low, are up by 1,000 over the previous 7-day period. I hope for Poland’s sake history is not going to repeat itself.

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59 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I'm for lockdowns for the unvaccinated at this point.

No more postponed surgeries because people don't want to contribute to society.

Also paying for it.  Billions in costs for the covid unvaccinated hospital stays in the last couple of months.

They are breaking the health care in every possible way -- and it isn't necessary except THEY choose not to be vaccinated and wear masks. Or distance at all, instead follow masked people around in order to rip off the masks and cough.

Zabs -- your idea of how to continue sounds good -- except the jerkwaddies won't cooperate so it will get worse and worse and worse.  There is no negotiating with jerkwaddies.  They won't.

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1 hour ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I'm for lockdowns for the unvaccinated at this point.

No more postponed surgeries because people don't want to contribute to society.

You spelled beatdowns wrong. 

Out of more than 51,000 Covid deaths in England between January and July 2021, only 256 occurred after two doses.

there is no need for hardly anyone to be dying anymore, except the terminally stupid. 

Edited by BigFatCoward

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2 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I'm for lockdowns for the unvaccinated at this point.

No more postponed surgeries because people don't want to contribute to society.

1. Segregate (as in a sea burial) 2. deport or 3. shoot them, they could be given 3 choices with 30 seconds to decide.

I think this would be eminently generous and shows how thoughtful the people are.

Of course we will need to get on with building new housing in Antarctica for the deportees but it's for a tremendous cause.

Edited by DireWolfSpirit

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11 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Can this be right?  I know our numbers are ridiculous, but this many? If so, it dramatically illustrates the deaths are clustered in unvaccinated, non-masking regions.  Mustn't it?  

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/15/health/us-coronavirus-wednesday/index.html

That's really only true if you include "the past" as a region, because the majority of those deaths occurred before vaccines became widely available in spring of this year (in US at least).  Deaths since March or so have been overwhelmingly among the unvaccinated, but that is still a much smaller raw number than we saw in spring 2020 or winter 20/21. 

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2 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The shocking number is that 1 in every 500 Americans have died of Covid-19.

Our COVID response has been shockingly bad, and has improved less than I hoped with Biden taking over. 

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

And to get to the point I wanted to make, I just looked at the weekly trends chart on Worldometer and the new cases in Poland, while very low, are up by 1,000 over the previous 7-day period. I hope for Poland’s sake history is not going to repeat itself.

Its certainly is a concern.  Especially since its vaccination rate isn't great.  Of course, the amount of infections last winter may be helping them now, given increased immunity.

But then, all of Europe had a bad winter last year.  Right now, the trend is improving in Europe (but at a higher level than last year).  Last year, the amount of cases was low but getting worse.  Lets see what vaccination does!

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3 minutes ago, Fragile Bird said:

The shocking number is that 1 in every 500 Americans have died of Covid-19.

I remember a certain someone here saying that there was no way the deaths could reach in the hundreds of thousands in the US.
A certain someone who's also been ranting against masks right here in one of these threads.
I guess if you're wrong, might as well be wrong all the way, uh?
 

8 minutes ago, Maithanet said:

Our COVID response has been shockingly bad, and has improved less than I hoped with Biden taking over. 

I don't think Biden can do much to convince conservatives to get vaccinated (and/or to wear masks). That one's not on him.

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20 hours ago, Mudguard said:

Yes, it just takes months to update the mRNA vaccines.  I think it only took about half a year to enter clinical trials the first time, so it should be even quicker now.

Actually, yearly probably isn't necessary, but it just depends on when and what variants pop up.  Influenza vaccine is yearly because frankly the influenza vaccine is a relatively shitty vaccine and also because there are many, many influenza variants in circulation.  Coronavirus could get there in time though.

I see. 

well, I can’t wait to see how this is all going to look from 2030. I just hope we make it there. 

18 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Technically a dead delta virus vaccine could be put out to market in a very short space of time. As an adjunct to people already vaccinated with first gen viruses it may well give a significant immunity boost, specifically for Delta.

There is another left field possibility: inoculation. That is simple infection with the virus. But in this case with the OG virus. Vaccine was proved to be very effective at preventing infection and illness with the OG virus. Therefore it should be safe, in theory, to inoculate healthy, non-elderly, double jabbed people, a couple of months after their second vaccination, and this would give a major boost to immunity which may prevent breakthrough infection by Delta in a large proportion of people.  I don't know what the stats say about infection, illness and death in healthy non-elderly vaccinated people with the OG virus. I believe soon after the second jab the overall stat with the mRNA viruses was 96% effective at preventing infection. But that would be across all ages. For the younger and healthier that may be a much higher effectiveness. Also, given it appears most countries are resigned to everyone being exposed to Delta, it could be argued that it is better to be deliberately hit with the OG virus than to wait until you are hit with Delta, if a very high degree of cross immunity is confirmed. The dose can be managed to be just at the infectious dose rate, and ti doesn't necessarily need to be a jab. It could be orally administered like the polio vaccine. Of course the conspiracy community would go absolutely nuts, moreso than it is now. 

I just… absolutely don’t see that more than 5-10% of the target population would be up for this. But yes I can see how it would make sense. 

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Also paying for it.  Billions in costs for the covid unvaccinated hospital stays in the last couple of months.

They are breaking the health care in every possible way -- and it isn't necessary except THEY choose not to be vaccinated and wear masks. Or distance at all, instead follow masked people around in order to rip off the masks and cough.

Zabs -- your idea of how to continue sounds good -- except the jerkwaddies won't cooperate so it will get worse and worse and worse.  There is no negotiating with jerkwaddies.  They won't.

I know.  I know.  But that's why, in part, why it is worthwhile to live Here rather than Elsewhere.  

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57 minutes ago, Rippounet said:

I don't think Biden can do much to convince conservatives to get vaccinated (and/or to wear masks). That one's not on him.

Yeah at this point there isn't really anything he can say to change people's minds. The only tool left in the bag is the stick, and I'm glad to see he's using it. I still believe that sooner than later there will be a de facto vaccine mandate nationwide, and anyone who can't/won't comply needs to simply be left behind.

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

The shocking number is that 1 in every 500 Americans have died of Covid-19.

Yes.  I am thinking of how many people I know who have died of it.  I never reckoned them up, but it's a large number.  True, many were elderly, as the musicians in New Orleans and / or had some chronic health issues, but still!  That doesn't include the people I know -- and the generally these are the individuals to whom I was closest -- who died due to delayed medical care from covid.

This has to mean nobody in the US doesn't know someone who died of covid.  Yet, I do know people who don't know anyone personally or from a distance.  I think.  I'm not sure.

 

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1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

why it is worthwhile to live Here rather than Elsewhere

I just returned from doing some winter clothes shopping (ya, I know, it's in the 80's -- when's a better time to buy thick wool sox and cashmere sweaters, hmmmm? :D ), and in only one place did a person coming in have to be told to "Pull your mask over your nose," and the that -- was the library.  The Uni library's extended in length and raised in height the plexiglass shields in the last week, since re-opening this summer.  I'm so glad for us they have.

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9 minutes ago, Zorral said:

This has to mean nobody in the US doesn't know someone who died of covid.  Yet, I do know people who don't know anyone personally or from a distance.  I think.  I'm not sure.

 

I don't know anyone who has died of it. I barely know anyone who has had it! Probably it's a very inhomogeneous distribution.

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