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Fragile Bird

Covid-19 #38: As the Worm Turns

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My 85 year old (thankfully vaccinated) grandfather tested positive for Covid after having cold like symptoms. So far, and it has been several days now, he has not felt too much worse for wear. I hope that continues, even though vaxxed he’s getting up there in years and even a moderate case would probably not be great.

Meanwhile, on the other side of my family, I have an aunt, uncle, and two cousins all from the same branch of the fam, all unvaccinated, and all have Covid. My mom can’t report any details other than that, at the very least, they are all actually sick because they are being pretty tight lipped. Had to come home early from a vacation and are all home in bed is all I know. I suspect information is not forthcoming due in part to the fact that my uncle is among the relatives that basically made my mom feel like she had made a terrible mistake by getting the vaccine, and a certain amount of crow is going to be served up for dinner if it leaks out that after a bout with covid they may have been the ones in the wrong about the shot. I do sincerely hope they all recover swiftly, but this is not exactly a shocking outcome. Much of that side of the fam has been preaching against this vaccine. I knew something like this was just a matter of time. 

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6 minutes ago, Starkess said:

I don't know anyone who has died of it. I barely know anyone who has had it! Probably it's a very inhomogeneous distribution.

Ya, in spots like New Orleans, many people know many, many, many who have died of covid.

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Covid's circulating in the community where I work. Not at extremely high levels, but enough to be felt. A teacher I know has it, friends of a co-worker's child have caught it, a student has it... On top of that, at least one non-Covid bug is going around fast. Masses of the students seem to have coughs and colds; staff are off sick. The lack of resistance after more than a year of reduced social contact is going to make the usual winter viruses nastier than usual. 

Hope your relatives recover soon @S John

Edited by dog-days

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25 minutes ago, Starkess said:

I don't know anyone who has died of it. I barely know anyone who has had it! Probably it's a very inhomogeneous distribution.

I suppose in your milieu there is a dearth of idiocy. Be thankful.

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16 minutes ago, dog-days said:

The lack of resistance after more than a year of reduced social contact is going to make the usual winter viruses nastier than usual. 

It has already begun. Several co-workers had nasty bouts of cold, coughing and the like - all tested a couple of times, all negatives. One actually had her entire household down with nastily stuffy noses and were stuck at home for 5 days. There's definitely more than covid around right now, all the viruses that couldn't propagate in the last 10 months are back.

  

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

Also paying for it.

This and Luzifer's points. Both should be widely done across N. America and Europe. Unvaccinated decided to be selfish and not give a damn about the rest of society, they chose their fate, society has a moral imperative to cast them out until the see the light - or stupidly, painlessly and needlessly die from covid.

 

2 hours ago, Padraig said:

Its certainly is a concern.  Especially since its vaccination rate isn't great.  Of course, the amount of infections last winter may be helping them now, given increased immunity.

Poland, Czechia and Hungary were hit later in the winter wave, and had it far worse than any other European country at the time. Hopefully, this will delay the next wave, and blunt it - until enough people have been vaccinated.

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I know a few people who died - all in early days in 2020.  I know several people who have had Covid, including breakthrough cases.  The severity of their illness seems arbitrary and capricious based on what I know of their profiles.

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More than 90% of Fox Corporation (which includes Fox News) full time employees are vaccinated, and those who arent will be required to do daily testing, which is much more stringent than the Biden administration has mandated.

So there you have it.

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3 hours ago, S John said:

My 85 year old (thankfully vaccinated) grandfather tested positive for Covid after having cold like symptoms. So far, and it has been several days now, he has not felt too much worse for wear. I hope that continues, even though vaxxed he’s getting up there in years and even a moderate case would probably not be great.

Meanwhile, on the other side of my family, I have an aunt, uncle, and two cousins all from the same branch of the fam, all unvaccinated, and all have Covid. My mom can’t report any details other than that, at the very least, they are all actually sick because they are being pretty tight lipped. Had to come home early from a vacation and are all home in bed is all I know. I suspect information is not forthcoming due in part to the fact that my uncle is among the relatives that basically made my mom feel like she had made a terrible mistake by getting the vaccine, and a certain amount of crow is going to be served up for dinner if it leaks out that after a bout with covid they may have been the ones in the wrong about the shot. I do sincerely hope they all recover swiftly, but this is not exactly a shocking outcome. Much of that side of the fam has been preaching against this vaccine. I knew something like this was just a matter of time. 

I just hope the Candace Owens approach doesn't start catching on among the anti-vaxxers. Get sick, but just don't get tested so that you can claim you didn't have COVID.

 

1 hour ago, Zorral said:

Illuminating information as to who and why are those 1 in 500 so far:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/1-in-500-covid-deaths/?itid=hp-top-table-main

 

That is rather telling as a raw statistic. 0.2% of American's have died of COVID, yet a lot less than 100% of Americans have had the infection. 

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I'm watching the Alberta governments September 15 Covid-19 update on youtube. They're not exactly announcing a lockdown but it sounds a hell of a lot like we're going back into lockdown. I'm happy to hear they are stressing the importance of the stuff they should have been stressing for the last 19 months.

Today:

18,421 active cases, 877 hospitalizations, 218 in the ICU. (the Premier said 269 patients in his speech tonight. He might have meant "beds")

6 days ago it was:

15,997 active cases, 679 hospitalizations and 154 in the ICU.

Update: A Provincial health official spoke afterward and confirmed the 269 ICU patients number. The website must not have been updated yet. That's it for ICU beds in this province. I hope no one gets into a car accident. 

Edited by Deadlines? What Deadlines?

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3 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

I know a few people who died - all in early days in 2020.  I know several people who have had Covid, including breakthrough cases.  The severity of their illness seems arbitrary and capricious based on what I know of their profiles.

I don’t personally know anyone who died….I’ve heard of relatives of friends and friends of friends.

I do know some people who have had covid, all of it “mild” - ranging from asymptomatic but tested positive and family members were symptomatic, to people who “felt like death warmed over” but didn’t have to go to the hospital.

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13 cases today, down by 1 again. So a slow crawl to zero. 1 Truck driver making deliveries across the lockdown boundary, I understand. They worked according to the rules so no fault on their part, but these things keep us on our toes. Things are looking hopeful for a slightly more relaxed lockdown for Auckland next week, and hopefully all going well just one further week to ending the lockdown entirely.

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It really is about time the Government stopped dithering, and acknowledged we need purpose-built MIQ facilities away from populated areas. The cost of such facilities would be a fraction of the cost of putting Auckland in deep freeze for a month every time there's a slip=up.

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13 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

It really is about time the Government stopped dithering, and acknowledged we need purpose-built MIQ facilities away from populated areas. The cost of such facilities would be a fraction of the cost of putting Auckland in deep freeze for a month every time there's a slip=up.

One problem with that is, this outbreak was not caused by a quarantine slip up. it was a person who came back from Aus and was legit out and about in the community able to assume they are not a risk...until they were. The other problem is it'll take until the pandemic is basically over to get such facilities built (esp considering the global shortage in building materials) with the accommodation space necessary to funnel everyone through those facilities and not hotels. The time to build dedicated facilities is always when there isn't a pandemic and a solid pandemic response plan has been drawn up. But then what do you do with these facilities, which will basically be like minimum security prisons but with nicer furniture, while there isn't a pandemic. And if you get them built, and 50 years later still no pandemic needing to use these facilities, then a govt is going to end up selling the facilities, or turning them into actual minimum security prisons, because the actual minimum security prisons are falling apart from lack of R&M. And then, hey presto! the pandemic that comes along 5 years later catches the country with its pants down, and the govt will say "no one could have predicted this." and "Oh sure, hindsight is always 20-20!", and back to the hotels we go.

Nice idea in theory, lots of fishhooks in practice.

The other thing I was going to say about NZ and lockdowns and the economy is that because the powerhouse of the NZ economy is food, and food production and supply are always essential businesses in a pandemic, it means the engine that drives the NZ economy will never be turned off in any pandemic or lockdown. That means both domestic supply of food (and loo paper since loo paper production would also be an essential business) and our most important by far export trade sectors will keep on trading. 

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3 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

One problem with that is, this outbreak was not caused by a quarantine slip up. it was a person who came back from Aus and was legit out and about in the community able to assume they are not a risk...until they were. The other problem is it'll take until the pandemic is basically over to get such facilities built (esp considering the global shortage in building materials) with the accommodation space necessary to funnel everyone through those facilities and not hotels. The time to build dedicated facilities is always when there isn't a pandemic and a solid pandemic response plan has been drawn up. But then what do you do with these facilities, which will basically be like minimum security prisons but with nicer furniture, while there isn't a pandemic. And if you get them built, and 50 years later still no pandemic needing to use these facilities, then a govt is going to end up selling the facilities, or turning them into actual minimum security prisons, because the actual minimum security prisons are falling apart from lack of R&M. And then, hey presto! the pandemic that comes along 5 years later catches the country with its pants down, and the govt will say "no one could have predicted this." and "Oh sure, hindsight is always 20-20!", and back to the hotels we go.

Nice idea in theory, lots of fishhooks in practice.

This outbreak was caused by someone who spent a fortnight in Quarantine, but just happened to be so ludicrously infectious they managed to infect the entire family in the room next door. They weren't out and about in the community.

On the other point - this pandemic is the new normal. We need to accept that, and behave accordingly (which to my mind, means new MIQ facilities).

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2 minutes ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

This outbreak was caused by someone who spent a fortnight in Quarantine, but just happened to be so ludicrously infectious they managed to infect the entire family in the room next door. They weren't out and about in the community.

On the other point - this pandemic is the new normal. We need to accept that, and behave accordingly (which to my mind, means new MIQ facilities).

You are talking about patient zero, who was not the proximate cause of the outbreak. The index case in the community was someone who was legitimately out and about in the community and having an MIQ facility on White Island where the fateful transmission took place would not have prevented this outbreak. I wouldn't be against re-establishing Matiu  / Sommes Island as a quarantine station, only this time not for sheep. At least it will have nice views for the inmates, and it would also be tricky to escape to the mainland.

If there is very broad, cross party support for ongoing border restrictions and quarantine out to 10-20 years at least, then I can see a good case for getting started right now building several quarantine facilities. But this govt, and certainly not the opposition parties most likely to make up any replacement govt are not thinking or planning along those lines. Though I do recall David Seymour saying we needed a dedicated facility owned and run by private enterprise. But he went silent on that very quickly due to how silly an idea it is to deal with an immediate problem.

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Yes, the curve is definitely becoming less and less flat. I suppose I wouldn’t feel half as anxious if we had any preventative measures in action. But we don’t, we just trust in God or the vaccines or nothing and pretend it all doesn’t exist. 

Also, everybody is ill, colleagues, family, etc. it’s not covid, but I think I have learned to be ridiculously scared of any and every seasonal illness. 

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19 hours ago, Rippounet said:

I don't think Biden can do much to convince conservatives to get vaccinated (and/or to wear masks). That one's not on him.

Biden's strategy on COVID has been to rely on vaccines and virtually nothing else, which is disappointing.  What about making rapid tests more widely available?  Providing clear recommendations for schools on how to reopen safely, along with the resources to meet those recommendations?  Making a federal standard for which masks actually work so that people aren't relying on cloth masks anymore?  Making clear statements based on the science on 3rd boosters, rather than letting the govt get ahead of its skis and turning it into a complete fiasco? 

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1 hour ago, Maithanet said:

Biden's strategy on COVID has been to rely on vaccines and virtually nothing else, which is disappointing.  What about making rapid tests more widely available?  Providing clear recommendations for schools on how to reopen safely, along with the resources to meet those recommendations?  Making a federal standard for which masks actually work so that people aren't relying on cloth masks anymore?  Making clear statements based on the science on 3rd boosters, rather than letting the govt get ahead of its skis and turning it into a complete fiasco? 

I had my annual check up today (flu shot achieved!).  I (obviously) spoke to my doctor about Covid.  Here was her take:

1.  Administration has been a bit of a disaster on the communications front.  She thinks they are jumping the gun on the vaccine booster stuff, and not doing a good enough job on communicating the mitigation strategies you describe above.

2.  She is not recommending boosters, except for 75+ and truly immunocompromised people (ie, those with organ transplants; those on chemotherapy, etc.) at this time.  She says understanding changes daily.  She is guessing for ordinarily healthy people 8 months minimum, and maybe you want next gen vaccine.  

3.  She had high praise for the NYC DOH (and slightly fainter, but still positive for NYS DOH).  Her view was that communication from NYC has been clear, consistent, and effective.  She is cautiously optimistic that school reopening is being done right - mask mandate plus vaccine mandate for 12+. 

4.  She thinks pediatric approval (5-12) for Pfizer could come as early as October (around Halloween) but probably at some point in December.  

5.  Go get your flu shot!

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