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Fragile Bird

Covid-19 #38: As the Worm Turns

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Finally some fragments of good news out of Alberta. I guess the announcement of vaccine "don't-call-them-passports", a quasi-lockdown, and no more ICU beds sufficiently scared the shit out of people. 

The latest data on the Alberta health website indicates a substantial spike in the number of doses administered on 16-September. They have also added 3rd-dose data to the chart. 

28,158 doses administered, with 16,231 of those being 1st doses. For context, 15-September 1st doses totaled 5,682, and that was the highest single day peak since early June.  2nd doses also saw a significant bump with 8,550, which is roughly double the previous 7 day average.

One day isn't enough to equal a trend, but if we can keep up numbers like that for a while, that's extremely good news.

80.1% of 12+ population has received at least one dose (68.1% total population)

71.8% of 12+ population fully vaccinated (61% total population)

(Alberta lags the national average by 5-10 percentage points in those categories)

12-19 year olds have crossed 70% with a 1st dose. 20-29 year olds are close behind.

A total of 42,745 3rd doses have been administered since the end of August.

Edited by Deadlines? What Deadlines?

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5 hours ago, Chataya de Fleury said:

Given the health status of my close contacts, I would find it wildly unlikely that they would also be asymptomatic. Frankly, at least one of them (Peebs) would be extremely unlikely to do well if he caught it.

I’m just thinking we’ve all avoided it, so far.

Or the vaccine is working exactly as intended!

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Personally I'm not sure if I avoided it.

I started testing myself on a regular basis after self tests became available at the local pharmacy and never tested positive (never had symptoms just a better safe than sorry thing) but my antibody test after I got the vaccines was a bit higher than expected (at least above the values for double vaccinated people I found online). Not a big thing but maybe I should have gotten an antibody test before the vaccines (for reasons of curiosity).

100% social distancing was not possible because I work with a huge number of fuckwads who only kept their distance if you went confrontational at a regular basis.

I still know nobody here in Austria who got it who followed strict social distancing, masked and did not give a shit when the government eased restrictions. All people who claimed otherwise actually lived with careless people or did not social distance at work. This is not about blaming people but many people actually think that they are social distancing when they are not. I was never able to do it completely because of work and would not claim otherwise.

Edit: I'm not properly social distancing at all in some private situations since two weeks after I got both doses and I would not be surprised if I test positive (I still test myself regularly). I still demand it at work because while I'm willing to risk things for quality time with friends and family the job is not a place I'm willing to risk things mainly because of the huge number of completely untrustworthy and unvaccinated people there(official tests are worthless in Austria because you can upload self tests into the system except for Vienna which is controlled by the opposition which is led by an MD and not a far right populist like our chancellor).

Edited by Luzifer's right hand

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13 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

A young woman I work with won't get the vaccine because of the excuse, "If it's my time to die, then that's God's decision".

Even though I'm an atheist, I can't help but think of that joke I first heard on BoJack Horseman.

I can't remember it word for word, so I'll have to paraphrase a bit.

If you believe there is a God that can decide you will die of a virus, shouldn't you also believe that the same God is behind a vaccine for that virus?

Exactly.
Besides, I don't think bozos who consider God to be a cheat card that allows them to do dumb shit have more than very basic religious or theological knowledge. God isn't there to save them when they act fucking dumb, God is there to help them when they do things right yet still are in trouble. I mean, FFS, Jesus himself chose not to act stupid when tempted and didn't jump from a cliff, even though he knew he would be saved, because wasting God's goodwill in ludicrous endeavour is fucking nuts and should only piss him (or it, or her) off.

I'm glad I didn't need to point this out to my evangelical co-worker or to his wife; they were a bit late to get vaxxed but are bloody glad they did it and are growingly pissed off at their anti-vaxx conspiracy loon acquaintances.

Edited by Clueless Northman

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Oh brother the Gawd wants it this way arguments. They are really the flipside of the Devil made me do it excuses.

In that World we are expected use mental gymnastics to explain why anyone would be responsible for anything at all when Gawd and the Devil are calling all these shots.

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A friend got his booster.  He advises do NOT get booster and flu shot at the same time.  He's been just flattened and his arm is so sore he can't move it.  This has been going on for about 5 days.

Just anecdotal, but thought I'd pass this along.  He and wife got their shots the moment in January there were shots to get for people with 'special needs' such as immuno-compromised.  I don't know what their special thing was -- other than where they live the vaccine was right there being administered in local synagogue, so they were right there, at the head of the line.  Why not? when the community for which it was being targeted refused to show up?

Edited by Zorral

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19 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

A young woman I work with won't get the vaccine because of the excuse, "If it's my time to die, then that's God's decision".

 

2 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

Oh brother the Gawd wants it this way arguments. They are really the flipside of the Devil made me do it excuses.

In that World we are expected use mental gymnastics to explain why anyone would be responsible for anything at all when Gawd and the Devil are calling all these shots.

Just tell her that if God's will can be defeated with 30 micrograms of some junk a bunch of clowns cooked up in a lab, either it ain't "God's will" or she ain't talking to God.

Then ask if you can have her stuff if she kicks off. 

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https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2021/09/210916173428.htm

COVID-19 virus is evolving to get better at becoming airborne, new study shows
Study suggests need for better ventilation and tight-fitting masks, in addition to widespread vaccination to help stop spread of the virus
Date:
September 16, 2021
Source:
University of Maryland
Summary:
A new study finds that SARS-CoV-2 is evolving toward more efficient aerosol generation, and loose-fitting masks provide significant but only modest source control. Until vaccination rates are very high, continued layered controls, including improved ventilation, increased filtration, UV air sanitation, and tight-fitting masks are critical to protect people in public-facing jobs and indoor spaces, researchers urge.

Results of a new study led by the University of Maryland School of Public Health show that people infected with the virus that causes COVID-19 exhale infectious virus in their breath -- and those infected with the Alpha variant (the dominant strain circulating at the time this study was conducted) put 43 to 100 times more virus into the air than people infected with the original strains of the virus. The researchers also found that loose-fitting cloth and surgical masks reduced the amount of virus that gets into the air around infected people by about half. The study was published in Clinical Infectious Diseases. . . .

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Well, we've been living with Alpha for 6 to 11 months depending on the place. Now, pretty much all of them are living with Delta; would be nice to know if Delta is even better airborne or not. It it's not, it wouldn't be as much of a big deal.

Then, at the end of the day, there's a limit to how far a virus can evolve, for instance physical limitations to how effective the spike can be. I mean, no virus can keep mutating and gain +3 reproduction rate every single time, at some point this will stabilize.

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The benefits of having a fully vaccinated family: being able to get together to celebrate my grandfather's 90th birthday. :)

However, the downside is far too many Minnesotans don't like sunny weather and for the second year in a row the family croquet tournament was cancelled. :tantrum:

So that makes me the three year reigning champ, right?

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2 hours ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Then ask if you can have her stuff if she kicks off. 

I have just such a plan to ask this of any endtimers, convinced their hour has came.

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9 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

I have just such a plan to ask this of any endtimers, convinced their hour has came.

I was living in Milwaukee back when Harold Camping and the family radio network followers were preaching about the end of the world. I came out to my car one morning and saw a pamphlet from them under the windshield wiper. "My boarding pass to the afterlife", I thought. I was so happy. I still have it. 

Then the end of the world didn't happen. Sigh.

Edited by Deadlines? What Deadlines?

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On 9/16/2021 at 9:36 PM, The Marquis de Leech said:

Down to 11 Auckland cases today.

 

2 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

24 Auckland cases today. This is turning into one hell of a long tail.

I think I'm beating a dead  horse here, but either the vaccines are effective, or NZ is going to eventually have covid spread through the population at large regardless.  

Best thing for most of us is to lose 10-30 pounds.  (or more, or less, depending)  Either way, while Covid doesnt ignore slimmer folks entirely, it does seem to focus elsewhere.

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3 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

24 Auckland cases today. This is turning into one hell of a long tail.

Holy shit I just looked up New Zealand's vaccination rate. Fully vaccinated is at 31.6%. Is it a logistical problem or vaccine hesitancy or...? Australia isn't much better. 

Keep up the lockdown. Don't be like the idiots was have running things out here. 

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/ive-never-seen-a-government-this-incompetent-nenshi-blasts-province-on-covid

1 hour ago, mcbigski said:

I think I'm beating a dead  horse here, but either the vaccines are effective, or NZ is going to eventually have covid spread through the population at large regardless.  

See above.

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2 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Holy shit I just looked up New Zealand's vaccination rate. Fully vaccinated is at 31.6%. Is it a logistical problem or vaccine hesitancy or...? Australia isn't much better.

NZ (& Aus) are inoculating around 1.5% of the population per day. Both getting towards 60% on first shots. Set to overtake the US and be on par with much of Europe towards the end of October.

Like much of the rest of Asia we didn't really get much vaccine here until a couple months ago. Here in Australia we only just opened eligibility to below 40s at the start of this month.

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A closer look at the new cases... they're moving away from Pasifika towards Maori. That's a mixed sign (suggests it isn't widely circulating in South Auckland, but Maori arguably have fewer social-reach mechanisms than Pacific Islanders). It's also turned up in Mount Eden Prison.

The medical authorities are still confident that we're dealing with the dregs of the outbreak, and most importantly, it's still confined to a handful of Auckland suburbs. Every Wellington case has now recovered.

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13 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

Holy shit I just looked up New Zealand's vaccination rate. Fully vaccinated is at 31.6%. Is it a logistical problem or vaccine hesitancy or...? Australia isn't much better. 

Keep up the lockdown. Don't be like the idiots was have running things out here. 

https://calgaryherald.com/news/local-news/ive-never-seen-a-government-this-incompetent-nenshi-blasts-province-on-covid

See above.

Most people here are still waiting for their second dose. It's not hesitancy, just that we were at the back of the queue - we don't have any community transmission outside Auckland.

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