Covid-19 #38: As the Worm Turns

[VigoTheCarpathian]

43 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

@VigoTheCarpathian

https://policyoptions.irpp.org/magazines/august-2020/its-time-for-canada-to-follow-ontarios-critical-care-triage-protocol/

edit: I'm not necessarily endorsing the arguments put forth in that article, I'm just showing that there are jurisdictions that have protocols in place.

One or one hundred thousand: Back of the line, Sunshine. 

I’m aware of the protocols - but these are for rationing care once there is no option. Right now, cancelling non-immediate-harm surgeries is an option to keep the most people alive (regardless of their decisions).  If crisis care protocols go into effect (at least in my system), there’s scoring in place looking at likelihood to survive and a few other factors as part of a bioethics review.  But no one wants to be there and make those decisions.

I get the outrage about people who do not vaccinate, but the condemnation and “othering” sometimes online gets a bit too much for me. I do wish for a way to make people realize and recognize the harm they are causing.

 

[JGP]

So, just a minor bitch, but I waited in an online queue for almost two hours to get my BC Vaccine Registration passport thing... and it gave me my code, but said, 'Partially Vaccinated.' Office is closed, so no doubt I'll be spending a few hours tomorrow in a phone queue to get it fixed [I got my first dose in AB, second in BC] Might get messy, TBD.

[Pebble thats Stubby]

Re: TP Hoarding.  you are all armatures.

Many many years ago there was a promotion on the back of packs of toilet paper for a free cinema ticket per pack.  I think the promotion lasted for about 3 months.  at the time a pack of toilet roll was about £3 and a cinema ticket was £8, to us they where printing money.  Every time I or at the time my boyfriend (now married to him) went to the shops we would buy 2 packs.  We did not pay for a cinema ticket for a whole year and we went a lot.  We shoved the excess toilet roll in the loft and called it extra insulation.  We did not buy toilet roll for 3 years after the promotion ended.  This is what I call toilet paper hoarding.

 

as for last years problems, well due to this thing called Brexit and the potential risk of a NO Deal it was predicated in some circles there would be shortages of many things including toilet paper.  Well toilet paper is something that is easily stored if you have the space and has no use date. So I shoved a few extra Costco packs in the loft. (no where near what I had during that promotion)  When the panic buying happened I supplied family, friends and neighbours.    I was also able to provide pasta, rice and some tins to those having difficulties in finding food on the shelves.  My Brexit stock also meant we where able to stay away from the shops other than for some fresh veg from the farm shop until things settled down.  I have since replaced some of my stock over the summer and have a better idea of what we actually need.  - this has provided some help with the current shortages happening now.

 

 

I think the toilet paper thing in particular happened over here because in about January / feb there was reports of toilet paper shortages in Japan and their early lockdown, then gradually as more countries was hit by covid people went out to stock up in advance just incase taking supermarkets and suppliers by surprise, a few empty shelves in a couple of stores spread on facebook/ twitter causing more people to panic buy while they still could and it all snowballed.

 

 

 

 

[RhaenysBee]

Hmmm… either we are inexplicably lucky or the vaccination does hold its ground because the upward curve we are seeing with delta has so far been slower and flatter than the upward curve last summer.

I suppose it can have something to do with  with people’s experiencing mild or no symptoms and not getting tested, so the stats are flatter. But the sewing water testing also implies that this is not an exponential increase of infections. After an increase a couple weeks ago we see stagnation and even mild decrease in several towns and cities. And the concentration is still low or moderate everywhere. 

Now I’m sure that at some point this bubble will burst because we still have absolutely no restrictions in place to conserve this flat curve and/or prevent an explosion of infections in the upcoming weeks. Kids went back to school a week ago, that’s bound to kick in soon. 

[Zorral]

Sturgis 'Rona Biker Rally Did What Sturgis 'Rona Rally Does. No surprises here.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/outlook/2021/09/07/sturgis-covid-delta-variant/

[paywall]

Quote

 

The annual Sturgis motorcycle rally in South Dakota is America’s largest bike rally, a 10-day blowout, with attendance this year exceeding 250,000. It was also a serious pandemic stress test. By bringing together hundreds of thousands of people, Sturgis helps answer a simple yet critically important question: Are we at a point in the pandemic where we can safely stage big-crowd events?

If there were a place where this could have happened, it should have been Sturgis. The best data suggests that at least 75 percent of the entire South Dakota population has some degree of immunity against the virus: About half of South Dakotans have immunity because they’ve been infected by covid-19, and about half of the population has been vaccinated — some of whom have already had covid-19 when they got their shot, so there is some overlap between these two groups. South Dakota, despite its middling vaccination rates, probably has among the highest levels of population immunity in the nation, driven largely by horrifying winter outbreaks.

That’s what makes Sturgis an important test. If it had gone off without big spikes in covid cases, it would have provided strong evidence that this level of population immunity — around 75 percent — would allow us to get back to the way we did things in 2019. But unfortunately, that’s not what happened. In the weeks since the rally began in early August, infection numbers have shot up more than 600 percent in South Dakota. We can expect to see big increases in other states, too, since bikers returned home from the event. Last year, after Sturgis, we saw massive outbreaks across the Dakotas, Wyoming, Indiana, even Nevada. Much of the region was aflame because of Sturgis, probably causing thousands of deaths....

,,,Over the past year, every time we have tried to defy the virus by scorning precautions, the virus has won, and people have suffered and died: significant outbreaks, a lot of hospitalizations, too many deaths. Large gatherings like rallies, festivals and fairs are the biggest test of what our society can do in a pandemic.

The simple interpretation of the large outbreak after Sturgis is that big gatherings are just not possible during a pandemic. But that is the wrong lesson. It’s important for Americans to find ways to come together. So we should ask how we can make gatherings safer.

The delta variant arrived at just the right time to break our spirits

Here, the pandemic playbook is straightforward: Ensure you have a highly vaccinated population. Verify people’s vaccination status. Require rapid and frequent testing, especially for the unvaccinated. Improve indoor air quality, and use masking intermittently when needed....

 

Which is why Chicago's outdoor Lolapolooza Festival worked out - proof of vaccination status. Which is why state fairs etc. probably will not.  And maybe why this past weekend's Atlanta Dragon Con with 42,000 + attendees may well work out, though it was indoors except for parade -- masking and vaccination.  I'm curiously waiting to learn.

[Zorral]

12 hours ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

Right now, cancelling non-immediate-harm surgeries is an option to keep the most people alive (regardless of their decisions).

Except immediate harm surgeries are being canceled because no room at the inn due to unvaccinated covid jerkwaddies.  Read the piece linked to above regarding what's happened in Idaho for just a single example.  The state itself now says health care is limited. People who need cancer surgery can't get it -- and they are dying.  The system is broken by these jerkwaddies, of their own choice.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

12 hours ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

I’m aware of the protocols - but these are for rationing care once there is no option. Right now, cancelling non-immediate-harm surgeries is an option to keep the most people alive (regardless of their decisions).  If crisis care protocols go into effect (at least in my system), there’s scoring in place looking at likelihood to survive and a few other factors as part of a bioethics review.  But no one wants to be there and make those decisions.

We're there. 

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/covid-us-hospital-icu-bed-shortage-veteran-dies-treatable-illness/

https://crooksandliars.com/2021/09/covid-overload-idaho-hospitals-say-they

12 hours ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

I get the outrage about people who do not vaccinate, but the condemnation and “othering” sometimes online gets a bit too much for me. I do wish for a way to make people realize and recognize the harm they are causing.

"Othering"? I've been rhetorically shitting on anti-vaxxers long before this pandemic. This morning I watched video of a Covidiot harassing a judge at a supermarket because he ruled on mask mandates in a way she didn't like. This went on from the store to the trunk of his car. Words like "communist" and "traitor" were used, plus a few subtle threats for good measure. All because he ruled that kids should wear masks in school during a pandemic. The video was recorded and posted by the Covidiot herself. That's just one example of a torrent of idiocy I've seen recently.

If I seem intolerant of this stuff it's because I am. If someone says, "I was wrong", I have all the time in the world for that person. But why should I show any solidarity to anyone who, after almost two years of this, has never shown any themselves?

 

[Zorral]

We in NYC are still dying with the 'non-immediate harm care' cancellation that began in March 2020.  Funny how that non-immediate harm in favor of caring for these covididiots is killing we others throughout the nation.  That's who the 'others' are.  Covididiots are eating all of it.

 

[Mlle. Zabzie]

Here is a thought that has been rolling around in my head, and I'm trying it on for size.  It's not super original or thought through, but I'm curious what you all think:

Covid is killing the last of our "forced communities" (which were already dying).  For a long time, at least in the US, there were several "forced communities."  The most prevalent were school and the workplace.  (Of course the armed forces are forced communities as well, but so much less so now, with the lack of a draft; there may also have been a time in the distant past and different country where state religion played that role).  By "forced community" I mean having to deal with people who are appreciably different that you are who have only one thing necessarily common which is being more or less forced to be in the same place for a singular common purpose.  These were already dying.  I think covid may have killed them.  I think that is probably a long-term bad thing.  I certainly have grown a great deal from being thrown into situations with people who have different perspectives than I have, and being in person helps in these situations....But they are on some deep level socially uncomfortable.  And now that people have an excuse to avoid them, they are taking the excuse and not showing up.  

Thoughts?

[Zorral]

20 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Here is a thought that has been rolling around in my head, and I'm trying it on for size.  It's not super original or thought through, but I'm curious what you all think:

Covid is killing the last of our "forced communities" (which were already dying).  For a long time, at least in the US, there were several "forced communities."  The most prevalent were school and the workplace.  (Of course the armed forces are forced communities as well, but so much less so now, with the lack of a draft; there may also have been a time in the distant past and different country where state religion played that role).  By "forced community" I mean having to deal with people who are appreciably different that you are who have only one thing necessarily common which is being more or less forced to be in the same place for a singular common purpose.  These were already dying.  I think covid may have killed them.  I think that is probably a long-term bad thing.  I certainly have grown a great deal from being thrown into situations with people who have different perspectives than I have, and being in person helps in these situations....But they are on some deep level socially uncomfortable.  And now that people have an excuse to avoid them, they are taking the excuse and not showing up.  

Thoughts?

First though is prisons aren't included in you list, though a couple of them in our own city are so infamous they are being shut down, including the one in my neighborhood where Epstein 'hanged himself.'

Also convents, friaries and other religious communities, fire departments (a shift literally does live together in professional departments across the country), orphanages, hospitals > nursing homes, community homes of various sorts to transition people from one state to one in which they can function in the so -called 'real world.'

These and the ones you mentioned, seem to indicate all 'forced communities" are "public good communities," except the workplace?  (We can and will, doubtless argue over whether prisons and schools are public good institutions.)

Group travel such as cruise ships and buses also?

[Mlle. Zabzie]

8 minutes ago, Zorral said:

First though is prisons aren't included in you list, though a couple of them in our own city are so infamous they are being shut down, including the one in my neighborhood where Epstein 'hanged himself.'

Also convents, friaries and other religious communities, fire departments (a shift literally does live together in professional departments across the country), orphanages, hospitals > nursing homes, community homes of various sorts to transition people from one state to one in which they can function in the so -called 'real world.'

These and the ones you mentioned, seem to indicate all 'forced communities" are "public good communities," except the workplace?  (We can and will, doubtless argue over whether prisons and schools are public good institutions.)

Group travel such as cruise ships and buses also?

Prisons are a good (but sad) example.  I agree (sort of) with religious communities (and church communities in general) but think there is a bit more self-selection.  And I agree a bit with cruise ships, and nursing homes, etc.  All are being radically affected by COVID.

[Larry of the Lawn]

My four year old nephew got covid at his preschool in CT, kind of concerned as he spent a few hours last weekend with my grandmother, who is 89 and having a double masectomy next week.  Shes getting tested this evening or tomorrow.  She's fully vaccinated, but she got the shot back in Feb, so not sure how effective it is at this time. Trying not to worry too much till we know more.

[butterbumps!]

hang on- do the vaccinated in NYC really need masks in the street?  honestly asking if there's been research that led to such a recommendation.

[Mr. X]

22 hours ago, Zorral said:

Calling up my journals from March -- here in NYC, as I recalled, we were highly recommended to wear masks if we could already. 

I got curious after reading your earlier post about last March, so I looked at photos on my phone. I took a selfie of myself wearing a mask on the way to the grocery store on March 31, which is most likely the first time I went out of the house wearing a mask. There's another photo from the next day of Xray trying on one of the cloth masks my mom made and sent us.

And I think you mentioned this too, but one of the weirdest things about living here at that time was how quiet things got. There was a stretch where almost the only sound was ambulances.

22 hours ago, kairparavel said:

Re: TP hoarding 

My theory all along is that most adults had no idea how much they might need for a 4 week stay at home order or whatever because many do their business at work or school etc 5 days a week. 

This checks out. It did come up in conversation at Casa X that we were going through a lot more TP than usual since we were pretty much homebound.

1 hour ago, butterbumps! said:

hang on- do the vaccinated in NYC really need masks in the street?  honestly asking if there's been research that led to such a recommendation.

If you're asking whether there's a mandate for vaccinated folks to wear masks outdoors, the answer is no. I often do out of convenience as much as anything, as I find it simpler to just wear the mask for the 5-10 minute walk to the store or the subway rather than waiting to put it on when I get there.

Here's what the NYC Health page has to say about it: 

Quote

Masks are required for everyone in public transit, health care settings, schools and congregate settings, such as nursing homes and homeless shelters.

People who are unvaccinated must wear a mask in all public settings, indoors and outdoors.

People who are vaccinated are urged to wear masks in all public indoor settings, as well as in any setting when they do not know the vaccination status of those around them.

 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Some meh news and bad news from Alberta.

The 15-19 age cohort has crossed 70% with at least one dose. 12-14 are right behind them.

The bad news is that the $100 bribe doesn't seem to have much of an effect. We crossed 10K doses on the first day of the program (September 3) but September 4-6 have settled back down to more or less the previous rate. It's early days so we'll see what happens once the week is out.

[Zorral]

I am again usually wearing  mask on the streets of my neighborhood because I can be stuck for blocks of closely packed unmasked sitting in covid sheds that cover everything, plus all the tables on the sidewalks that aren't covered or partitioned.  This condition begins the moment I walk outside our building -- and then all the other pedestrians going from place to another like myself, and the choke points at the corners.  It's quite miserable. I have respiratory troubles due to being so close to 9/11 Ground Zero. Breakthrough would not be pleasant, even if I don't have to hospitalized.  Me wearing a mask doesn't do any harm to anyone or inconvenience anyone.  And maybe I'm doing myself a favor of added protection.  ya, 1 in 5000 are likely to have a breakthrough.  But you, know? how old? how young? how healthy? etc. etc. etc.  If partner and I have a table Outside where the path is wide enough to be distanced from other diners and pedestrians, we chance it -- maybe once every 10 days of so.

I do remove the mask(s) once I get out of that kind of density of people laughing, yelling, etc.  And when I find a quiet outdoors place to sit, and then talk to friends on the fone from there -- until bikers or sirens or screaming becomes too intrusive -- which doesn't happen every time, but too often.  Sigh.

But as of now one isn't allowed into a museum etc., and many, many stores without a mask.  Still I see people going into TJ's and Morton Williams without, and belligerently swaggering as if demanding the rest of us DO SOMETHING so they have a reason to pull that concealed weapon.

14 minutes ago, Mr. X said:

And I think you mentioned this too, but one of the weirdest things about living here at that time was how quiet things got. There was a stretch where almost the only sound was ambulances.

And then, in April > people standing on balconies and at windows at 7 PM. banging on pots in honor of the frontline workers.

The other thing though, about where we're located, we didn't get anywhere near the relentless, multiple, endless ambulance sirens as our friends uptown and parts of Brooklyn did -- for day and night after day and night.

 

[Mr. X]

4 minutes ago, Zorral said:

And then, in April > people standing on balconies and at windows at 7 PM. banging on pots in honor of the frontline workers.

The other thing though, about where we're located, we didn't get anywhere near the relentless, multiple, endless ambulance sirens as our friends uptown and parts of Brooklyn did -- for day and night after day and night.

I had forgotten about the 7pm salute and fast-forwarded mentally to June (?) when there were fireworks all the time.

We live right between two fairly large hospitals in Brooklyn. I don't know that I'd call the ambulances relentless, but they certainly stood out due to the lack of all the other noise we usually get.

[Kalbear]

Coworker went to Pax West, was vaccinated and wore masks. 93% of attendees were vaccinated. Masks indoors were enforced. 

Got Covid. Dunno how serious it is, but it's enough to knock him off of work since pax ended.

[Larry of the Lawn]

I went to a Grateful Dead concert a couple weeks ago.  Proof of vax required.  My NYS Excelsior pass app needed an update and couldn't get it loaded when I was supposed to show it at the gate.  I had taken a screenshot of it, they let me use that, but they didn't even cross check it with my ID to see that it was mine.  They weren't cross checking anyone's ID with their proof of vac. 

I'm skeptical of the actual veracity of "proof of vax" if someone wants to get around it, but maybe that threat is enough to keep people away.  I had a lawn ticket and was outside the whole time, but I was so sketched out being near so many people I could hardly even enjoy the show.  Didn't take any hallucinogens because I didn't think I could handle it.  

Maybe the threat of having to show vax proof is enough to keep unvaxxed people out, but I later learned they also we're allowing a negative covid test within 48 hrs as good enough to enter. 

Since then I've been completely isolating and masking.  This shit is just gonna keep going for awhile, none of the measures that are mandated are actually anything other than the most they can do without triggering more outrage.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

13 Auckland cases today. Fingers crossed for single digits tomorrow.