Covid-19 #38: As the Worm Turns

[Impmk2]

26 minutes ago, SpaceChampion said:

 

But the antigen is the spike protein, right?

For covid specific monoclonals yes, though I imagine they'd use a soluble portion of the spike protein receptor binding domain rather than full length.

Oh that's another difference - you're literally only getting lots of a single antibody.  During vaccination your body produces different antibodies to many of the bits (epitopes) of the spike. It's a big protein. So if the monoclonal doesn't bind well due to there being a mutation there (varient) you're out of luck. 

ETA: if you had a variety of antibodies it'd be a polyclonal. They don't use those for therapies afaik, too much variability. 

[Clueless Northman]

5 hours ago, Zorral said:

Not to mention far more expensive than a vaccine.  Far, far, FAR more expensive.

Goes to show how anti-vaxx are complete morons with their "Big Pharma just sells vaccines to make money". A 2-doses vaccine isn't where the bulk of money is, they're making bank over drugs that sell at tens of thousands.

Amazing move by Biden, specially if private firms that do business with US administration have to be fully vaccinated as well.

[Luzifer's right hand]

11 minutes ago, Clueless Northman said:

Goes to show how anti-vaxx are complete morons with their "Big Pharma just sells vaccines to make money". A 2-doses vaccine isn't where the bulk of money is, they're making bank over drugs that sell at tens of thousands.

Amazing move by Biden, specially if private firms that do business with US administration have to be fully vaccinated as well.

They could increases the cost of human approved ivermectin. I suspect there is a lot of profit there. Focus on the fact that severe side effects are only common if you use animal approved versions and start printing money.

I'm not suggesting that they do that because it has valid use cases but who knows in a country where people die because they can't afford insulin.

[The Anti-Targ]

7 hours ago, Gorn said:

This is legitimately a huge deal:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/09/09/politics/joe-biden-covid-speech/index.html

The bolded is an even bigger deal - it means employees of Boeing, Lockheed, General Electric, Bechtel, FedEx, Space-X, oil companies, various utilities... I don't know if Amazon is a federal contractor, I assume it is.

I would guess that it is only for parts of companies that physically interact with federal staff in their contractual arrangement with the govt. So it would only be a proportion of the employees in these companies that would be required to be vaccinated or find a new position within the company. Good. I think as an employer and purchaser of private services it is totally legit for the govt to have a no jab no play policy. Legit medical exemptions of course, I hope.

@Ser Scot A Ellison nice vaxxed vs unvaxxed graphics being produced by hospitals in your neck of the woods.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article254048788.html

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NC hospitals begin publishing COVID patient numbers to make a point about vaccination

RALEIGH

Doctors and hospital leaders have been saying for weeks that the surge of COVID-19 patients this summer has been largely among the unvaccinated.

Now they’re beginning to share the numbers in ways they hope will inspire more people to get the COVID-19 vaccine.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

11 Auckland cases today.

[Ser Scot A Ellison]

11 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I would guess that it is only for parts of companies that physically interact with federal staff in their contractual arrangement with the govt. So it would only be a proportion of the employees in these companies that would be required to be vaccinated or find a new position within the company. Good. I think as an employer and purchaser of private services it is totally legit for the govt to have a no jab no play policy. Legit medical exemptions of course, I hope.

@Ser Scot A Ellison nice vaxxed vs unvaxxed graphics being produced by hospitals in your neck of the woods.

https://www.newsobserver.com/news/coronavirus/article254048788.html

 

There are more people, even among the vaccine hesitant getting vaccinated.  What sucks is that it’s still too late.  My daughter fully vaccinated since mid May is Covid positive as of yesterday.  No symptoms and we reconfirmed with a second test but this is really frustrating to those of us trying to do this properly.

:|

[The Anti-Targ]

11 cases today. Numbers heading in the right direction, but only gradually, and ther are still one or two new locations of interest popping up, meaning recent cases have been out in the community (albeit only under lockdown conditions, so much lower risk of spread) while probably contagious. Interesting irony is that a vaccination centre is now a location of interest. An infected person trying to do the right thing, but unbeknownst to them (hopefully) they were already infected.

14,000 tests yesterday, which is more tests (from memory) than the last day that had 20 cases. So this is very positive, with a rising number of daily tests and case numbers going down. I still don't want to jinx it, but I am allowing myself to feel a real sense of optimism for the first time, really.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

In Alberta, right now:

15,997 active cases, 679 hospitalizations and 154 in the ICU.

Compared to values I posted in this thread on Monday:

13,495 active cases, 515 hospitalizations and 118 in the ICU.

They have six days worth of bribe-window vaccination numbers on the Alberta health website. I think we can confidently say the $100 bribe hasn't increased the poke-rate at all over the previous trend. However, it looks like the rate of first doses may have increased slightly compared to a month ago, but that trend started before the bribe was even announced.  I'm being careful with how I phrase all that because, if I'm charitable, its possible the rate could have declined this week without it. Back to school and all that. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Apparently antibody testing is showing that PCR testing of people to detect infection has picked up about 20-25% of infections in the USA. This translates to a fatality rate (IFR) of about 0.3% for the USA, which of course is a lot lower than the CFR of 1.62%. Estimate of seasonal 'flu IFR is about 0.1%. So, it is looking like the final assessment will put COVID-19 as about 3x more deadly than seasonal 'flu. By that estimation, then one could argue that it is reasonable to apply 3x the public health measures for COVID-19 than is practised for seasonal 'flu. Pretty much the typical approach to 'flu is [mostly] vulnerable people should get an annual vaccination, and if you get sick don't go to work / school / crowded spaces. 'flu measures should also now come with a mask recommendation during the the season.

[VigoTheCarpathian]

9 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Apparently antibody testing is showing that PCR testing of people to detect infection has picked up about 20-25% of infections in the USA. This translates to a fatality rate (IFR) of about 0.3% for the USA, which of course is a lot lower than the CFR of 1.62%. Estimate of seasonal 'flu IFR is about 0.1%. So, it is looking like the final assessment will put COVID-19 as about 3x more deadly than seasonal 'flu. By that estimation, then one could argue that it is reasonable to apply 3x the public health measures for COVID-19 than is practised for seasonal 'flu. Pretty much the typical approach to 'flu is [mostly] vulnerable people should get an annual vaccination, and if you get sick don't go to work / school / crowded spaces. 'flu measures should also now come with a mask recommendation during the the season.

Could you share your source?  I’ve seen estimates of ~20-25% of the US total population, but varying IFRs estimated that are higher than 0.3 (above 0.6), and I know the modeling around it isn’t straightforward, since it varies so widely state to state and across time, and you can’t use case deaths interchangeably with infection deaths.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 minutes ago, VigoTheCarpathian said:

Could you share your source?  I’ve seen estimates of ~20-25% of the US total population, but varying IFRs estimated that are higher than 0.3 (above 0.6), and I know the modeling around it isn’t straightforward, since it varies so widely state to state and across time, and you can’t use case deaths interchangeably with infection deaths.

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34438440/#affiliation-3 though originally watched it in the John Campbell Youtube channel.

If you do the calculations based just on the Worldometer CFR for the USA, which I state above is 1.62%. Then if the reported infection rate, as per Worldometer is only 20% of the actual infection rate then the IFR is 1/5th of 1.62% which is 0.32%. At the start of the pandemic it is estimated that only ~11% of infection was being picked up by testing, by December the estimate is ~25% was being picked up. So I just did a rough guess that between 11% at the start and ~25% now that would tend towards 20% over all. And if this publication is accurate then testing has picked up about 20% of all infections since the beginning of the pandemic.

I think because New Zealand has kept a pretty strong lid on infection then the infection detection rate is probably a lot higher than in countries where it has gone more or less unchecked for most of the time. The NZ CFR on Worldometer data is 0.69%. So that's less than half the US CFR. Though if the IFR is 0.3% that means NZ still only found about 50% of all the people who got infected over the last 18 months. If true, that's, I guess, the benefit of lockdown, asymptomatic / very mildly symptomatic people who are undetected in the community are prevented from spreading the disease, because their contact with people outside the home is very limited during the lockdown.

The IFR should actually start dropping now with vaccination, because with breaktrough infection in vaxxed people that will reduce the overall fatality rate due to this intervention. So really after a decent % of the population is vaxxed you can no longer use any data to estimate or refine the natural IFR unless you keep separate records of positive cases that are vaxxed and positive cases that are unvaxxed, and then only count the deaths in the unvaxxed. Can be done I guess, it's just more involved.

[Gorn]

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2021/sep/10/denmark-lifts-all-covid-restrictions-as-vaccinations-top-80-per-cent

Quote

 

Denmark’s high vaccination rate has enabled it to become one of the first EU countries to lift all domestic restrictions, after 548 days with curbs in place to limit the spread of Covid-19,

The return to normality has been gradual, but as of Friday, the digital pass – a proof of having been vaccinated – is no longer required when entering nightclubs, making it the last virus safeguard to fall.

More than 80% of people above the age of 12 in the Scandinavian country have had the two shots, leading the Danish government to declare as of midnight it no longer considers Covid-19 a “socially critical” disease.

 

 

[VigoTheCarpathian]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/34438440/#affiliation-3 though originally watched it in the John Campbell Youtube channel.

If you do the calculations based just on the Worldometer CFR for the USA, which I state above is 1.62%. Then if the reported infection rate, as per Worldometer is only 20% of the actual infection rate then the IFR is 1/5th of 1.62% which is 0.32%. At the start of the pandemic it is estimated that only ~11% of infection was being picked up by testing, by December the estimate is ~25% was being picked up. So I just did a rough guess that between 11% at the start and ~25% now that would tend towards 20% over all. And if this publication is accurate then testing has picked up about 20% of all infections since the beginning of the pandemic.

Ah, thanks - the most comprehensive model I’d seen where I liked the methodology was Here, and their infection rate (19.7%) is right in line with your calc.  Their IFRs are higher (.83-1.2), but fell in bounds with the .68 from a meta-analysis Here.

I don’t have access to the pub med detail, but the abstract says IFR was at .3 at the end of 2020, and higher during the start of year.  Early 2021 is when many systems had a significant surge, and the current delta wave (surge #4, for us) probably would put the IFR significantly higher (or maybe more variable, depending what state you are in).

I think .3 might be a good floor rate, for a highly vaccinated population (with effective vaccines) with no significant variants, solely based on where we were at the end of 2020 (significant rollout in vulnerable populations and healthcare workers without Delta).

But we don’t have enough info yet about it.  I do not endorse making this kind of comparison until we know more, especially in the US.  Rampant comparisons to the flu (about which we have plenty of data) and fatality rates end up being more political than fact-based.  

[Zorral]

14 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

11 Auckland cases today.

You all in New Zealand have been hearing about this.  People everywhere are covidiots, which makes it impossible for anyone not an idiot to move on with their lives.

"Patient concerned about covid reports sex romp at New Zealand hospital: ‘It was just all a bit staggering’"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/09/10/hospital-visitor-sex-new-zealand/

Quote

 

....Even so, nurses organizations have expressed concern and outrage over the hundreds of visitors entering the country’s hospitals daily, specifically at three in the region that are overseen by the Auckland District Health Board. The New Zealand Nurses Organization complained that the hospitals are not adequately monitoring visitation, resulting in some people showing up in groups and others refusing to wear masks, according to the New Zealand Herald.

“We cannot afford to have people unwittingly bringing covid into the system, threatening the patients who are vulnerable,” Kate Weston, the acting nursing and professional services manager with the New Zealand Nurses Organization, told Radio New Zealand....

 

 

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

Poor Lamb (read to the end) 

Sadly, this will get worse.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

3 hours ago, Gorn said:

https://www.theguardian.com/weather/2021/sep/10/denmark-lifts-all-covid-restrictions-as-vaccinations-top-80-per-cent

 

We'll see. 

Not mentioned in the Guardian article is that hospitalizations in Denmark are considerably lower than they are in the UK and the USA and well below their peak. They have some capacity and that will give them time to get things under control if it flares up again. 

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/weekly-hospital-admissions-covid-per-million?country=GBR~USA~DNK~DEU~FRA

The thing that concerns me is that their vaccination rate is starting to flatline. Given that kids under 12 aren't getting the shots, it would be nice if the vaccination rates for the other cohorts were well above 80%

https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/share-people-fully-vaccinated-covid?country=FRA~DEU~GBR~USA~OWID_WRL~CAN~DNK 

[Filippa Eilhart]

Denmark’s vaccination is over 94% for all age groups over 50 and at 82 % for the 29-49 so getting it any higher will probably be really problematic.

[Deadlines? What Deadlines?]

23 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

Denmark’s vaccination is over 94% for all age groups over 50 and at 82 % for the 29-49...

Excellent.

I was pleased to see that there are several Canadian provinces that are on track to meet or exceed those numbers. Not the one I live in of course...

Quote

... so getting it any higher will probably be really problematic.

I wouldn't say that. The rates are slowing but they haven't completely flatlined yet. They should be able to get another 2-3 percentage points higher by the end of the year. 

[felice]

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

If you do the calculations based just on the Worldometer CFR for the USA, which I state above is 1.62%. Then if the reported infection rate, as per Worldometer is only 20% of the actual infection rate then the IFR is 1/5th of 1.62% which is 0.32%.

Though that's assuming there's no undercounting of covid deaths...

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, felice said:

Though that's assuming there's no undercounting of covid deaths...

I suppose, but I would think that would be negligible unless you think there is deliberate fudging of the numbers, early on the criticism of a somewhat conspiratorial nature was that deaths attributable to COVID-19 were being overreported. After all every death, in countries like the USA, has to be recorded and a cause of death included in the death certificate. In countries where death reporting and recording is less consistent there may be sufficient under-reporting to move the IFR by a few points, but not, I would think, in countries with a well organised births, deaths and marriages bureaucracy.