Lord Mathis Rowan and the siege of Storm's End..

[Daeron the Daring]

Some heavy TWOW spoilers included. 

So we learn about Lord Mathis Rowan, Lord of Goldengrove from different sources. 

We know he is a just, loyal and capable man, good military leader, was a member of the small council, and everyone has a good opinion of him, except for Tyrion, to whom he's a bit of a jerk. (Why tho) 

The more interesting stuff is that he was left behind by Mace Tyrell at Storm's End to continue the siege after his liege leaves to King's Landing. On the other hand, we are supposed to believe Aegon's forces captured Storm's End. But how could this work?

First of all, Lord Rowan noticingly got mad at the small council when there was talk of Elia Martell and her children's death, including Aegon, yes. Could this mean he was and is a veteran Targaryen loyalist who just awaited for this moment? However, she is married to Bethany Redwyne (the woman Hoster Tully intended for his brother Brynden Blackfish), meaning he is part of the circle of the great marriages across the Reach. That would imply he (trough his wife) is linked to houses Tyrell, Hightower, Tarly and of course Redwyne BIG TIME. 

He is said to be loyal, but who is he loyal to? Would he abandon his direct liege in favor of House Targaryen? Who knows. Someway Aegon' party captured Storm's End. Could it be that they did it with the help of Lord Rowan or it was already captured by him and and he only handed it over as a showdown of eternal loyalty? And what does this mean to the entire faction of reachmen? Does this mean he was willing to leave behind his allegiance to Highgarden, or Highgarden itself intends to support Aegon? I mean, it's not THAT hard for House Tyrell to break of their alliance with the Lannisters, and this might already be in progress. 

[Lord Lannister]

Matthis really seems to be loyal to Mace in all his actions. He stuck with him siding with Renly, didn't go over to Stannis, and went over to Joffrey all with the Tyrells. I suppose he could be a closet Targaryen supporter, but the simplest explanation would be he's just a decent guy and the murder of Ellia and her children is distasteful. 

As for how Aegon gets Storm's End, I always liked the theory that the Golden Company shows up at Storm's End, breaks the Tyrell siege and tells the garrison Stannis hired them. They open the gates and Aegon gets the castle.

[Lord Varys]

Yes, the Golden Company will take Storm's End by breaking the siege and pretending that Stannis hired them.

Mathis Rowan, commaning the small token force continuing the siege, is likely going to be captured by the Golden Company ... and then he will join Aegon's forces and publicly declare that the lad is truly Rhaegar's son.

That is why we got those hints that Rowan may be a genuine Targaryen loyalist, unlike Paxter Redwyne and Mace Tyrell who didn't really care about the massacre that took place during the Sack.

Arianne will give Aegon Dorne, and Mathis Rowan will help Aegon got a sizable portion of the Reach. When Aegon's forces have to face the Tyrell army marching down from KL the golden tree of Goldengrove flying under Aegon's Targaryen banner certainly will give a considerable number of Mace's lords, knights, and men pause. And perhaps even more than that. Some might refuse to fight against Mathis Rowan - especially Goldengrove men in the Tyrell army - others, with similar pro-Targaryen leanings as Mathis Rowan himself, might decide to defect to Aegon's side. After all, Mathis Rowan seems to be the most popular and most influential senior lord from the Reach in Mace's employ. Randyll Tarly is respected, but it seems that Mathis Rowan is actually well-liked. This could be how Aegon defeats the Tyrell army which is, so far, much stronger than the men he has.

The elephants should also help with that, of course, as could the Dornish armies - although the latter might come too late.

[Canon Claude]

On 9/6/2021 at 8:28 AM, Lord Varys said:

Yes, the Golden Company will take Storm's End by breaking the siege and pretending that Stannis hired them.

Mathis Rowan, commaning the small token force continuing the siege, is likely going to be captured by the Golden Company ... and then he will join Aegon's forces and publicly declare that the lad is truly Rhaegar's son.

That is why we got those hints that Rowan may be a genuine Targaryen loyalist, unlike Paxter Redwyne and Mace Tyrell who didn't really care about the massacre that took place during the Sack.

Arianne will give Aegon Dorne, and Mathis Rowan will help Aegon got a sizable portion of the Reach. When Aegon forces have to face the Tyrell army marching down from KL the golden tree of Goldengrove flying under Aegon's Targaryen banner certainly will give a considerable number of Mace's lords, knights, and men pause. And perhaps even more than that. Some might refuse to fight against Mathis Rowan - especially Goldengrove men in the Tyrell army - others, with similar pro-Targaryen leanings as Mathis Rowan himself might decide to defect to Aegon's side. After all, Mathis Rowan seems to be the most popular and most influential senior lord from the Reach in Mace's employ. Randyll Tarly is respected, but it seems that Mathis Rowan is actually well-liked. This could be how Aegon defeats the Tyrell army which is, so far, much stronger than the men he has.

The elephants should also help with that, of course, as could the Dornish armies - although the latter might come too late.

Are you saying that we’ll be getting a Hannibal style battle instead of an Agincourt style one?

[Lord Varys]

5 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Are you saying that we’ll be getting a Hannibal style battle instead of an Agincourt style one?

Could be a combination of both.

[Aldarion]

7 hours ago, Canon Claude said:

Are you saying that we’ll be getting a Hannibal style battle instead of an Agincourt style one?

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Could be a combination of both.

Probably, but I'd say it will draw more from the former, as Golden Company is actually kinda similar in structure to the army Hannibal took to Italy (majority infantry, some cavalry and elephants).

[Arthur Peres]

I think sometimes the fandom puts too much the power on the marriage alliances.

In the books is full os marriages pacts being broken, like Walder Frey having his son married to Gemma Lannister but still going initially against him, the Florents siding with Renly and not Stannis at first. So I don't see the marriage block in the Reach as a sign of a coalition. The Hightowers are sheltering the Florent heir againt the Tyrells, Mathis Rowan or Randyll Tarly going againt Mace is not that hard for me to belive.

That said, Mathis only has part of the original army, and his force is probably made out of peasants, Is not hard to imagine a professional mercenary company completly destroying them, even if they have smaller numbers.

I'm more curious about the reaction of the Stormlords to Aegon... he is on their lands, and the majority of them sided with the Baratheons over the Targeryans, they already traded Renly for Stannis and Stannis for Joffrey, if the flip flop again they will make the Freys look faithfull.

[LindsayLohan]

1 hour ago, Arthur Peres said:

I think sometimes the fandom puts too much the power on the marriage alliances.

In the books is full os marriages pacts being broken, like Walder Frey having his son married to Gemma Lannister but still going initially against him, the Florents siding with Renly and not Stannis at first. So I don't see the marriage block in the Reach as a sign of a coalition. The Hightowers are sheltering the Florent heir againt the Tyrells, Mathis Rowan or Randyll Tarly going againt Mace is not that hard for me to belive.

That said, Mathis only has part of the original army, and his force is probably made out of peasants, Is not hard to imagine a professional mercenary company completly destroying them, even if they have smaller numbers.

I'm more curious about the reaction of the Stormlords to Aegon... he is on their lands, and the majority of them sided with the Baratheons over the Targeryans, they already traded Renly for Stannis and Stannis for Joffrey, if the flip flop again they will make the Freys look faithfull.

Brings to mind Stannis and Davos discussing just how worthless the Stormlords oaths really are, and how he never assumes their loyalty.

[Daeron the Daring]

7 hours ago, Arthur Peres said:

I think sometimes the fandom puts too much the power on the marriage alliances.

In the books is full os marriages pacts being broken, like Walder Frey having his son married to Gemma Lannister but still going initially against him, the Florents siding with Renly and not Stannis at first. So I don't see the marriage block in the Reach as a sign of a coalition. The Hightowers are sheltering the Florent heir againt the Tyrells, Mathis Rowan or Randyll Tarly going againt Mace is not that hard for me to belive.

That said, Mathis only has part of the original army, and his force is probably made out of peasants, Is not hard to imagine a professional mercenary company completly destroying them, even if they have smaller numbers.

In the case of Lord Rowan, I think you're right about the marriage alliances. It is basically hinted that Lord Rowan was really a Targaryen loyalist all the time. 

However, Storm's End is the biggest building of the region, one of the fortifications of Westeros that is described as impossibld to take, and also massive. Assuming all this is real, it's garrison could easily be made of 2000-3000 men (since Stannis was expecting it's siege, or at least the holders of it after Blackwater), which could easily mean Lord Rowan's petty army might be a petty one measured by reachlords, who famously have a lot of men. 

It could be that Lord Rowan lifted up the siege when the Golden Company approaching was reported to him, and that way the GC presented itself as Stannis' men, or he already joined Aegon at that point, but decided to do lift the siege, so that the defenders would think it really is Stannis who csme to lift it. Or they did it with joined forces. But I'm not sure anyone saw a necessity in a battle between Lord Rowan's forces and the Golden Company. 

[Falcon2909]

How exactly does the Golden Company convince the castellan of storms end that they were hired by stannis?

[Daeron the Daring]

1 hour ago, Falcon2909 said:

How exactly does the Golden Company convince the castellan of storms end that they were hired by stannis?

They either crush Lord Rowan's army, make him lift the siege, or act like they made him run away. Stannis is up North, it is easily imaginable that he couldn't reach them with the news of hiring the Company. 

[Falcon2909]

9 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

They either crush Lord Rowan's army, make him lift the siege, or act like they made him run away. Stannis is up North, it is easily imaginable that he couldn't reach them with the news of hiring the Company. 

But wouldn't it be more believable if one/some of Stannis's important men was amongst the golden company saying thats okay to trust the gold company and to open the gates ?

[Jaenara Belarys]

9 hours ago, Daeron the Daring said:

They either crush Lord Rowan's army, make him lift the siege, or act like they made him run away. Stannis is up North, it is easily imaginable that he couldn't reach them with the news of hiring the Company. 

But how would they be convinced that Stannis had the coin to hire them? And logically, wouldn't they think that they'd head up north instead, on the principle that Storm's End is "expendable"?

8 minutes ago, Falcon2909 said:

But wouldn't it be more believable if one/some of Stannis's important men was amongst the golden company saying thats okay to trust the gold company and to open the gates ?

Interesting...maybe Edric Storm and his people were picked up by them, and one of the knights is able to convince them?

[Falcon2909]

1 hour ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

Interesting...maybe Edric Storm and his people were picked up by them, and one of the knights is able to convince them?

Edric is protected by those loyal to king stannis from the clutches of melisandre. He's in hiding in Lys. It is unlikely that the golden company picks them up. it is even more unlikely that Edrics protectors - all loyal followers of king stannis (including andrew estermont who stannis finds reliable) - join the golden company who plan to put faegon on the throne.

[Jaenara Belarys]

4 hours ago, Falcon2909 said:

Edric is protected by those loyal to king stannis from the clutches of melisandre. He's in hiding in Lys. It is unlikely that the golden company picks them up. it is even more unlikely that Edrics protectors - all loyal followers of king stannis (including andrew estermont who stannis finds reliable) - join the golden company who plan to put faegon on the throne.

Just a suggestion, since the Golden Company was in Lys, so....

[Daeron the Daring]

6 hours ago, Falcon2909 said:

But wouldn't it be more believable if one/some of Stannis's important men was amongst the golden company saying thats okay to trust the gold company and to open the gates ?

It would, of course. But so far who knoes about Aegon? All the defenders know is that Stannis is the only remaining claimant to the Iron Throne. It is more easy to believe if they, for example aren't there for gold, but Stannis promised them their land back. 

6 hours ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

And logically, wouldn't they think that they'd head up north instead, on the principle that Storm's End is "expendable"?

Not necesarilly. Storm's End is many things but not expendable. 

[Arthur Peres]

On 9/10/2021 at 5:58 AM, Daeron the Daring said:

However, Storm's End is the biggest building of the region, one of the fortifications of Westeros that is described as impossibld to take, and also massive. Assuming all this is real, it's garrison could easily be made of 2000-3000 men (since Stannis was expecting it's siege, or at least the holders of it after Blackwater), which could easily mean Lord Rowan's petty army might be a petty one measured by reachlords, who famously have a lot of men. 

 

I don't think that the garrison gets into the thousands... Harenhall was a bigger castle and only had 300 men to guard it against Roose 10k.

If Rowan is just sieging it, without trying to put a "Loras assault", there is no reason for a massive army to siege Storm Ends... Jaime was sieging Riverrun with less than 4k, so I would expect something similar in numbers.

On 9/10/2021 at 5:58 AM, Daeron the Daring said:

It could be that Lord Rowan lifted up the siege when the Golden Company approaching was reported to him, and that way the GC presented itself as Stannis' men, or he already joined Aegon at that point, but decided to do lift the siege, so that the defenders would think it really is Stannis who csme to lift it. Or they did it with joined forces. But I'm not sure anyone saw a necessity in a battle between Lord Rowan's forces and the Golden Company. 

Could be, If I was in his position I would not fight the GC now and give them the chance of victory and propaganda that they need. Maybe Aegon does not need to crush the army to present himself as a relief force from Stannis, but GRRM needs to show us the readers that Aegon is a serious threat, so my bet is on him fighting and winning, at least for now.

[Jaenara Belarys]

On 9/10/2021 at 11:30 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

Not necesarilly. Storm's End is many things but not expendable. 

It's not like the stormlords follow him, and the people with Stannis are in for the duration,so it's not like it would matter. 

 

On 9/10/2021 at 11:30 PM, Daeron the Daring said:

It would, of course. But so far who knoes about Aegon? All the defenders know is that Stannis is the only remaining claimant to the Iron Throne. It is more easy to believe if they, for example aren't there for gold, but Stannis promised them their land back. 

Daenerys exists but she's halfway around the world, so this seems to be correct. 

[Lord Varys]

On 9/10/2021 at 12:49 AM, Aldarion said:

Probably, but I'd say it will draw more from the former, as Golden Company is actually kinda similar in structure to the army Hannibal took to Italy (majority infantry, some cavalry and elephants).

From what we know about George he rarely pulls off a complete ripoff of a historical battle. There might be certain parallels to the real world, but he will make the whole thing his own. Aegon's successful campaign and the coming battles might draw inspiration from multiple real world battles where the weaker party crushed an army twice or thrice their numbers.

Keep in mind we can expect multiple battles to take place before Aegon sits the Iron Throne. First he has to take Storm's End, then he has to deal with the Tyrell army mentioned in Arianne 2, and then there is, possibly, another Tyrell host to deal with defending KL because Mace or Randyll might not take the entire Reach army down to Storm's End but, perhaps, only half. Mace Tyrell cannot really risk taking all his men out of KL in light of the situation with Margaery, the Faith, and the tense relations with the Lannisters.

On 9/10/2021 at 3:25 AM, Arthur Peres said:

I'm more curious about the reaction of the Stormlords to Aegon... he is on their lands, and the majority of them sided with the Baratheons over the Targeryans, they already traded Renly for Stannis and Stannis for Joffrey, if the flip flop again they will make the Freys look faithfull.

It still looks as if they are likely to switch yet again. The Baratheons as such a done - Stannis is far away and not popular, and Tommen/Myrcella are fake Baratheons - and Aegon offers them the opportunity to get even with the Lannisters - which some Stormlords only joined by force after the Blackwater, not because they thought Joff should be king.

On 9/11/2021 at 1:38 AM, Falcon2909 said:

But wouldn't it be more believable if one/some of Stannis's important men was amongst the golden company saying thats okay to trust the gold company and to open the gates ?

A suggestion I read is that the banners of the Golden Company - which are golden - strongly resemble the Baratheon banner - which is crowned black stag on a golden field - might be used to give the impression Baratheon men are among the Golden Company.

This could work pretty well on a rainy day or if the Golden Company attack at night or at dawn/dusk.

But in general if the Golden Company defeat the besiegers of Storm's End the garrison would be completely stupid not to open the gates because the folks out there don't seem to be their enemy ... nor are the Golden Company likely to butcher the garrison. There is likely going to be some fighting between the men under Mathis Rowan and the Golden Company, but once Aegon's people are inside Storm's End they should be able to quickly arrest and disarm the garrison.

[Falcon2909]

On 9/14/2021 at 1:07 AM, Lord Varys said:

A suggestion I read is that the banners of the Golden Company - which are golden - strongly resemble the Baratheon banner - which is crowned black stag on a golden field - might be used to give the impression Baratheon men are among the Golden Company.

This could work pretty well on a rainy day or if the Golden Company attack at night or at dawn/dusk.

But in general if the Golden Company defeat the besiegers of Storm's End the garrison would be completely stupid not to open the gates because the folks out there don't seem to be their enemy ... nor are the Golden Company likely to butcher the garrison. There is likely going to be some fighting between the men under Mathis Rowan and the Golden Company, but once Aegon's people are inside Storm's End they should be able to quickly arrest and disarm the garrison.

Do they just open the gates to anyone who has barratheon-looking banners? If I were the guard at the gates I would ask them to identify themselves.