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A Horse Named Stranger

US Politics: Maniac Manchin

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56 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

However, I have to say, I did not care for AOC's dress as a piece of art.  She is lovely, and would probably look good in a paper bag (which, btw, would have been an interesting artistic choice), but I didn't care for the early 2000s wedding dress vibe of the thing.

I thought the lettering for "Tax the Rich" looked odd, or at least almost Joker-inspired - which would be a very strange choice of inspiration to invoke.  Of course, I know absolutely nothing about fashion.  In fact, if it's possible to have negative knowledge of fashion, that's what I have.

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15 minutes ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

It looks like Newsom will win his recall pretty handily (famous last words). What I find fascinating is that there will be many Republicans casting their votes in this election fully expecting the results to be fraudulent. Is this some sort of masochism they are indulging in? Are they holding out hope that the 'true true' results will be discovered in an audit? To quote Spock 'fascinating'.

I think most Republicans don't actually believe there is fraud. They say there is because it's expected of them, and it gets liberals mad, and they may pretend to believe. But deep down many of them know it's not true.

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6 minutes ago, DMC said:

I thought the lettering for "Tax the Rich" looked odd, or at least almost Joker-inspired - which would be a very strange choice of inspiration to invoke.  Of course, I know absolutely nothing about fashion.  In fact, if it's possible to have negative knowledge of fashion, that's what I have.

Right?  I just didn’t care for it.  But we are talking about it, which may be the point?  I dunno.  

Further to her message, if the bill passes in its current form, carried interest (except for Real Estate, which NAREIT continuously reminds us is ‘special’) is essentially dead in its historic form.  Only allows cap gains rates for carry for investments that are functionally losers (have been held for the longer of 5 years and 5 years AFTER the end of the fund’s investment period).  So, basically, only loser investments.

Separately, I’m really curious what the SALT fix looks like that will be proposed.  As currently crafted, the bill is an invitation for anyone who lives in NY/NJ/CT/OR/CA/MA to leave if they make more than $400K a year.  The ETR is going to be somewhere in the 60% range, and they could lower it by 10 points by moving to any number of places (some of which aren’t that bad) where, bonus, they might be able to benefit more from the federal spending.

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4 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Separately, I’m really curious what the SALT fix looks like that will be proposed.  As currently crafted, the bill is an invitation for anyone who lives in NY/NJ/CT/OR/CA/MA to leave if they make more than $400K a year.  The ETR is going to be somewhere in the 60% range, and they could lower it by 10 points by moving to any number of places (some of which aren’t that bad) where, bonus, they might be able to benefit more from the federal spending.

I was just reading that NY and NJ MCs are still demanding - and expecting - a full repeal of Trump's cap:

Quote

“We are committed to enacting a law that will include meaningful SALT relief that is so essential to our middle-class communities, and we are working daily toward that goal,” Reps. Bill Pascrell (D-N.J.) and Thomas Suozzi (D-N.Y.) said in a joint statement Monday.

Sen. Bob Menendez (D-N.J.) added that he was “extremely disappointed” it was left out of the House bill.

“I expect the final House bill will include a full repeal,” he added, “otherwise it’ll be hard to support it.”

 

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1 hour ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

It looks like Newsom will win his recall pretty handily (famous last words). What I find fascinating is that there will be many Republicans casting their votes in this election fully expecting the results to be fraudulent. Is this some sort of masochism they are indulging in? Are they holding out hope that the 'true true' results will be discovered in an audit? To quote Spock 'fascinating'.

We’ll know by tonight. I personally expect he’ll narrowly win—I do not think there’s an insignificant chance he’ll lose. but I strongly urge anyone who hasn’t voted yet to try to do so if they’re able.

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1 hour ago, Fez said:

I think most Republicans don't actually believe there is fraud. They say there is because it's expected of them, and it gets liberals mad, and they may pretend to believe. But deep down many of them know it's not true.

I’d frame it a little differently. What you said used to be true, but everyone is vulnerable to believing a lie if they repeat it enough. Republicans these days are increasingly believing in the Kool-Aid as they drift further along the path to full-blown fascism.

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1 hour ago, DMC said:

I was just reading that NY and NJ MCs are still demanding - and expecting - a full repeal of Trump's cap:

 

This is a really hard one.  

Reasons to fully repeal:  The economies in question in part largely depend on the ability to take ~10% of the incomes of the super-wealthy.  The super-wealthy absolutely do not have to be in the tri-state area (and are already leaving - the pandemic has reduced the opportunity cost, and the marginal cost of moving is relatively low - I felt differently about city stickiness 18 months ago).  It would be one thing if state taxes were uniform.  However, changing residence can have a huge impact.  E.g., let's say you and your spouse make a combined $1 million.  If you stay in New York City, you pay a combined rate of ~13.5%.  If you move to Westchester, your rate is more like 9.7%.  If you move to Texas, your tax burden goes down $97,000-$135,000 a year.  That's a compelling number, especially when your top rate is going up to 39.6% on the federal side.  If that 13.5% is effectively more like 8%, maybe you are less likely to move.  BTW, if you are really super wealthy, your top federal rate is going to look more like 39.6+3.8+3.  Your top NY rate is going to be 10.3 (or 10.9) plus, if you live in the city 3.865.  I haven't done all the math on the bracket impacts and any phaseouts.   I know many people on the board would say "and that is still too low."  But the reality is that people can move to states that have made different choices, and do so freely.  So there isn't a ton of parity.  They can go to Texas and pay just the 39.6+3.8+3.  

Reasons not to:  Well, it benefits really wealthy people.  And it benefits really wealthy people who have chosen to live in high tax states.  They can in fact move if they don't like it.  

Maybe there is a phaseout at some income level that would make the NY/NJ/CT people happy?  Don't know.

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1 hour ago, Fez said:

I think most Republicans don't actually believe there is fraud. They say there is because it's expected of them, and it gets liberals mad, and they may pretend to believe. But deep down many of them know it's not true.

I don't know if it's most or not, but I'm sure that a significant percentage do really think that there is fraud, that there's a huge conspiracy against them.  No amount of data or evidence will convince them because they just think it's fake news and part of the conspiracy.  These are the same people that still think that Trump won and that Biden stole the election.  It's pretty crazy that such a large portion of the US lives in this alternate reality.

Edited by Mudguard

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2 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Maybe there is a phaseout at some income level that would make the NY/NJ/CT people happy?  Don't know.

Yes, this definitely would be the optimal outcome policywise - but Souzzi and Menendez in particular seem pretty hawkish on it.  Even Ways & Means chair Richard Neal sounds pretty resolute.  I dunno, maybe they can workout something that actually reflects common sense.

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1 minute ago, DMC said:

Yes, this definitely would be the optimal outcome policywise - but Souzzi and Menendez in particular seem pretty hawkish on it.  Even Ways & Means chair Richard Neal sounds pretty resolute.  I dunno, maybe they can workout something that actually reflects common sense.

My sources suggest they are pretty resolute.  Will know more tomorrow after I have a few more conversations.

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2 hours ago, IheartIheartTesla said:

It looks like Newsom will win his recall pretty handily (famous last words). What I find fascinating is that there will be many Republicans casting their votes in this election fully expecting the results to be fraudulent. Is this some sort of masochism they are indulging in? Are they holding out hope that the 'true true' results will be discovered in an audit? To quote Spock 'fascinating'.

Itserves as a handy justification for whatever you want to do... it's all resistance.

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3 hours ago, DMC said:

I thought the lettering for "Tax the Rich" looked odd, or at least almost Joker-inspired

There was so much meta* going on with the message and the dress, just starting with goldigger escort's jacket on the trip to 'comfort' the victims of the hurricane and flood in TX -- "I don't really care -- do you" -- and continuing with AOC doing the ironic come hither over the shoulder glamor pose for the cameras when they asked her to spin around. Also the flack she's gotten from the beginning for dressing above her station as a 'poor Puerto Rican' -- as is whined about her all the time by Them.  The red on white was the fairy tale and horror story of innocent white defaced by blood red of violence, as we see in films and tv all the time.  Which can also, if you're me, say, recalls the terror of January 6, and how she and so many of the women were in terror of rape and their lives -- including from the rethuglicans they were sequestered with -- and the horror flic, "Nanceeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee come out and plaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaay." And more than that.  Of course AOC is a part of the NYC fashion scene to a degree: she digs out previously worn from them in consignment shops and has all along.  She has real friends in that world, among young striving women designers of diversty -- i.e. not white.

She's always so smart.

Some people like to watch horror of blood and splattered all over the screen, some love to watch drug dealers wreaking torture and murder all over the screen in order to get control of the drug trade that destroys people's lives.

Me, I like watching this sort of over-the-top 'glamour'. It's an amuse-bouche, at least since getting educated in the field -- including chairs of clothing history at the Fashion Institute of Technology as well as others in the trade. They know everything there is to know about fashion and style, including how to stitch a Victorian gown exactly in the same way a seamstress from the era did, with the same textiles and the rest.  They have helped teach me how much history can be recovered from fashion and style, just as from art, and where fashion and art overlap and intersect, and have, here in the western nations, at least since the Renaissance.

* Meta and irony as commentary have always been a huge part of the fashion world, just as in the arts.

~~~~~~~~~~

Newsome -- don't we all just lurve it how Elder's declared he's lost the election via voter fraud when it hasn't even happened yet.

Edited by Zorral

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1 hour ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

My sources suggest they are pretty resolute.  Will know more tomorrow after I have a few more conversations.

From what I've read it sounds like a little over half the benefits from a full repeal would go to the top 1%.  Seems frustrating that the Dems can't reach a logical compromise to roll back the cap but retain that revenue.

 

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49 minutes ago, DMC said:

From what I've read it sounds like a little over half the benefits from a full repeal would go to the top 1%.  Seems frustrating that the Dems can't reach a logical compromise to roll back the cap but retain that revenue.

 

We shall see.  They may be holding out for pork for the tri-state.  I don't know.  But they have the leverage.

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Woo -- The Dress was heard 'round the world:

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/picture/2021/sep/14/ben-jennings-on-boris-johnson-at-the-met-gala-cartoon#img-1

:D

Dress - borrowed.

Quote

 

“The medium is the message,” Ocasio-Cortez wrote on Instagram.

“NYC elected officials are regularly invited to and attend the Met due to our responsibilities in overseeing our city’s cultural institutions that serve the public. I was one of several in attendance. Dress is borrowed.”

Ocasio-Cortez was also determined to use the spotlight to reiterate her commitment to principles that have made her both an icon and a lightning rod on the national political scene, widely known by her initials, AOC.

“The time is now for childcare, healthcare and climate action for all,” she wrote. “Tax the Rich.”

 

 

Edited by Zorral

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3 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

We shall see.  They may be holding out for pork for the tri-state.  I don't know.  But they have the leverage.

Yeah, just saying it's frustrating.  If pork could be a solution great, but I'm not optimistic.

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Yeah, just saying it's frustrating.  If pork could be a solution great, but I'm not optimistic.

Hear that.  Honestly state tax differentials are frustrating in general.  

I am personally more frustrated by all the goodies in the bill for real estate.  It's maddening.

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Hmm not a lot of discussion on the recall in California tonight. As a native Californian it’s really nauseating since I fully expect a massive polling error giving my state a trump as it’s governor.

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5 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Hmm not a lot of discussion on the recall in California tonight. As a native Californian it’s really nauseating since I fully expect a massive polling error giving my state a trump as it’s governor.

Perhaps there's no discussion because there's absolutely no indication of a massive polling error and Newsom is, at the moment, winning the actual results at about a 70/30 clip with 44 percent reporting.

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5 minutes ago, DMC said:

Perhaps there's no discussion because there's absolutely no indication of a massive polling error and Newsom is, at the moment, winning the actual results at about a 70/30 clip with 44 percent reporting.

The In person voting today hasn’t been counted yet. 

Edited by Varysblackfyre321

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