Rhaegar and Lyanna fled their duty, and the foreshadowing for Elia Sands and Aegon.

[Egged]

Love is the bane of honor
I think Aegon's role narratively is "don't put all your faith in perfect kings", especially not a kid. It's all about the pressure of being a hereditary ruler, the pressure of duty, of others' expectations being placed on a child solely due to his birthright, and of a life sacrificed to duty.

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"He is here. Aegon has been shaped for rule since before he could walk. He has been trained in arms, as befits a knight to be, but that was not the end of his education. He reads and writes, he speaks several tongues, he has studied history and law and poetry. A septa has instructed him in the mysteries of the Faith since he was old enough to understand them. He has lived with fisherfolk, worked with his hands, swum in rivers and mended nets and learned to wash his own clothes at need. He can fish and cook and bind up a wound, he knows what it is like to be hungry, to be hunted, to be afraid. Tommen has been taught that kingship is his right. Aegon knows that kingship is his duty, that a king must put his people first, and live and rule for them."

What Varys has said is all about Aegon ruling for others. That implies serious self-sacrifice. But is Aegon truly fit for this? Note how Varys never speaks of love, it's all about Aegon being raised to fulfill his duty, and one that has been placed on him based on his supposed birthright by others, which to us readers is uncertain to begin with and could even become uncertain to Aegon himself at some point.

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"Jon, did you ever wonder why the men of the Night's Watch take no wives and father no children?" Maester Aemon asked.

Jon shrugged. "No." He scattered more meat. The fingers of his left hand were slimy with blood, and his right throbbed from the weight of the bucket.

"So they will not love," the old man answered, "for love is the bane of honor, the death of duty."

We have here the literal kryptonite to Varys' expectations.

Aegon is still young and we have no indication he has any experience with women other than being raised by a septa, which considering the faith's tenants has served the opposite interest.

Love is sweet, dearest Ned, but it cannot change a man's nature
Arianne, a very intimidating woman, is coming to push herself onto Aegon, yet Aegon's entourage believed the support of Dorne was expected due to their existing blood ties to Aegon, not thanks to a new union between Aegon and a Dornish princess, a union which would also alter Doran's current plans which did not factor in Aegon at all.

A union to Aegon, from Doran's perspective, might also cast uncertainty into the master-strategist's mind; what will Dorne do when the real dragons come? And what if Dany's entourage sends a letter to Dorne along with Quentyn's body, telling them the prince was burned by the dragons he tried to steal? Would Arianne and the Sand Snakes believe it at all, especially if Arianne is trying to put herself between Aegon and Daenerys?

Daenerys on the other hand is preferred by Connington, who says the prince must hold off on any marriage as she may yet come, and he holds no found memories of Elia Martell, which might tarnish his view of Arianne no matter how "healthy" she might appear:

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A bride for our bright prince. Jon Connington remembered Prince Rhaegar's wedding all too well. Elia was never worthy of him. She was frail and sickly from the first, and childbirth only left her weaker. After the birth of Princess Rhaenys, her mother had been bedridden for half a year, and Prince Aegon's birth had almost been the death of her. She would bear no more children, the maesters told Prince Rhaegar afterward.

"Daenerys Targaryen may yet come home one day," Connington told the Halfmaester. "Aegon must be free to marry her."

"My lord knows best," said Haldon. "In that case, we might consider offering potential friends a lesser prize."

Pushing lesser prizes onto Dorne is unlikely to be well received, chiefly by Arianne herself.

Connington is trying to shield the prince from doubt:

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"I like the sound of that. My army." A smile flashed across his face, then vanished. "Are they, though? They're sellswords. Yollo warned me to trust no one."

"There is wisdom in that," Griff admitted. It might have been different if Blackheart still commanded, but Myles Toyne was four years dead, and Homeless Harry Strickland was a different sort of man. He would not say that to the boy, however. That dwarf had already planted enough doubts in his young head. "Not every man is what he seems, and a prince especially has good cause to be wary … but go too far down that road, and the mistrust can poison you, make you sour and fearful."

Yet Connington is joined by Tyrion's proposal, even if unknowingly, to wait for Daenerys:

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"You do not need to win," Tyrion told him. "All you need to do is raise your banners, rally your supporters, and hold, until Daenerys arrives to join her strength to yours."

Tyrion sold the idea to Aegon as follows:

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"I told you, I know our little queen. Let her hear that her brother Rhaegar's murdered son is still alive, that this brave boy has raised the dragon standard of her forebears in Westeros once more, that he is fighting a desperate war to avenge his father and reclaim the Iron Throne for House Targaryen, hard-pressed on every side … and she will fly to your side as fast as wind and water can carry her. You are the last of her line, and this Mother of Dragons, this Breaker of Chains, is above all a rescuer. The girl who drowned the slaver cities in blood rather than leave strangers to their chains can scarcely abandon her own brother's son in his hour of peril. And when she reaches Westeros, and meets you for the first time, you will meet as equals, man and woman, not queen and supplicant. How can she help but love you then, I ask you?"

The temptation is that of a mother figure and a rescuer who would fly to him like the wind, her brother's son, a boy becoming a man. Similarly, agreeing to this would place trust in his father-figure's plan. There is reassurance in taking this road, the one of parents he never had.

One way or another, Aegon must chose, at a time when war rages. But there is much room for doubt to keep him undecided, and if word reaches them that Daenerys has hurriedly flown away on her Dragon, could it be that Tyrion and Connington were right? Is the Mother of Dragons flying to the prince as fast as wind can carry her?

Aegon might hear the echo of Tyrion's words:

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"Your father knew the dangers of being overbold."

The prince stared at the playing board. "My dragon—"

"—is too far away to save you. You should have moved her to the center of the battle."

 

Wait, and wait, and wait, but the war does not.

The death of duty
As the pressure mounts on Aegon to either keep on waiting for Daenerys or secure an alliance with Dorne, will Aegon break? And more importantly, if he does, how?

What if this is exactly what happened with Rhaegar? What if Rhaegar buckled under all the pressure that was on him? From prophecies to the duty of kingship.

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"Lingering here will never bring it any closer. The sooner we take our leave of this place—"

"I know. I do." Dany did not know how to make him see. She wanted Westeros as much as he did, but first she must heal Meereen. "Ninety days is a long time. Hizdahr may fail. And if he does, the trying buys me time. Time to make alliances, to strengthen my defenses, to—"

"And if he does not fail? What will Your Grace do then?"

"Her duty." The word felt cold upon her tongue. "You saw my brother Rhaegar wed. Tell me, did he wed for love or duty?"

The old knight hesitated. "Princess Elia was a good woman, Your Grace. She was kind and clever, with a gentle heart and a sweet wit. I know the prince was very fond of her."

That answer from Jorah is fairly clear; Rhaegar married Elia out of duty, and maybe a hint of prophecy for all we know. He did not do so out of love.

Remember, Rhaegar thought he was expected to become a warrior. So we have another self-sacrifice for duty's sake:

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"As a young boy, the Prince of Dragonstone was bookish to a fault. He was reading so early that men said Queen Rhaella must have swallowed some books and a candle whilst he was in her womb. Rhaegar took no interest in the play of other children. The maesters were awed by his wits, but his father's knights would jest sourly that Baelor the Blessed had been born again. Until one day Prince Rhaegar found something in his scrolls that changed him. No one knows what it might have been, only that the boy suddenly appeared early one morning in the yard as the knights were donning their steel. He walked up to Ser Willem Darry, the master-at-arms, and said, 'I will require sword and armor. It seems I must be a warrior.'"

And there is another hint that Rhaegar may have wanted to move away from the pressure of ruling, although a subtle one that remains to be cleared up:

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Prince Rhaegar shook his head. "My royal sire fears your father more than he does our cousin Robert. He wants you close, so Lord Tywin cannot harm him. I dare not take that crutch away from him at such an hour."

Jaime's anger had risen up in his throat. "I am not a crutch. I am a knight of the Kingsguard."

"Then guard the king," Ser Jon Darry snapped at him. "When you donned that cloak, you promised to obey."

Rhaegar had put his hand on Jaime's shoulder. "When this battle's done I mean to call a council. Changes will be made. I meant to do it long ago, but . . . well, it does no good to speak of roads not taken. We shall talk when I return."

But love is the bane of honor, the death of duty:

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"Swords win battles," Ser Jorah said bluntly. "And Prince Rhaegar knew how to use one."

"He did, ser, but . . . I have seen a hundred tournaments and more wars than I would wish, and however strong or fast or skilled a knight may be, there are others who can match him. A man will win one tourney, and fall quickly in the next. A slick spot in the grass may mean defeat, or what you ate for supper the night before. A change in the wind may bring the gift of victory." He glanced at Ser Jorah. "Or a lady's favor knotted round an arm."

So I posit that the fear of it all frightened Rhaegar into the arms of Lyanna, who similarly ran from a duty imposed on her in marrying Robert, and as the war began to rage on both escaped away from it all to the Tower of Joy.

Kill the boy and let the man be born
Many wonder what Arys Oakheart's narrative point was. He is a good example of a man who struggled between love and duty.

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You know I have no other woman. Only... duty.

Which led him to his death:

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Arys, my sweet knight, why did you do it? You should have yielded. I tried to tell you, but the words caught in my mouth. You gallant fool, I never meant for you to die, or for Myrcella...

I believe that as history seems to so often repeat itself in the world of Ice and Fire, Aegon will flee into the arms of love. But whose' love?

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Come break of day, they were off again. Elia Sand led the way, her black braid flying behind her as she raced across the dry, cracked plains and up into the hills. The girl was mad for horses, which might be why she often smelled like one, to the despair of her mother. Sometimes Arianne felt sorry for Ellaria. Four girls, and every one of them her father's daughter.

Elia Sand, who bears the name of Aegon's mother, is similar in more ways than one to Lyanna Stark.

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"We will see about that." Valena wheeled her big red around and put her heels into him, and the race was on, through the dusty lanes of the village at the bottom of the hill, as chickens and villagers alike scrambled out of their path. Arianne was three horse lengths behind by the time she got her mare up to a gallop, but had closed to one halfway up the slope. The two of them were side-by-side as they thundered towards the gatehouse, but five yards from the gates Elia Sand came flying from the cloud of dust behind them to rush past both of them on her black filly.

"Are you half horse, child?" Valena asked, laughing, in the yard. "Princess, did you bring a stable girl?"

"I'm Elia," the girl announced. "Lady Lance."

Lyanna was also a horse-rider:

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Arya was breathing hard herself then. She knew the fight was done. "You ride like a northman, milady," Harwin said when he'd drawn them to a halt. "Your aunt was the same. Lady Lyanna."

And she was literally said to be "half a horse"

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Horses … the boy was mad for horses, Lady Dustin will tell you. Not even Lord Rickard's daughter could outrace him, and that one was half a horse herself.

And similarly to Elia, Lyanna could fight:

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"Lyanna might have carried a sword, if my lord father had allowed it.

And we have this in Bran's vision:

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Now two children danced across the godswood, hooting at one another as they dueled with broken branches. The girl was the older and taller of the two. Arya! Bran thought eagerly, as he watched her leap up onto a rock and cut at the boy. But that couldn't be right. If the girl was Arya, the boy was Bran himself, and he had never worn his hair so long. And Arya never beat me playing swords, the way that girl is beating him. She slashed the boy across his thigh, so hard that his leg went out from under him and he fell into the pool and began to splash and shout.

Elia can joust, and we all know that the Knight of the Laughing Tree is believed by many to have been Lyanna:

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"I am almost a woman grown, ser," she responded haughtily. "I'll let you spank me, though... but first you'll need to tilt with me, and knock me off my horse."

"We are on a ship, and without horses," Joss replied.

"And ladies do not joust," insisted Ser Garibald Shells, a far more serious and proper young man than his companion.

"I do. I'm Lady Lance."

Arianne had heard enough. "You may be a lance, but you are no lady. Go below and stay there till we reach land."

Note the point earlier where Elia surprises Arianne by racing ahead of her? It is a very tempting hint that Elia will steal Arianne's place and become Aegon's love interest, one no one is pushing on him. Her playful and courageous nature might attract him, comfort him at a time of incredible pressure, just as Lyanna may have with Rhaegar before.

But Rhaegar in the end found his courage, and went into battle. He killed the boy to let the man be born. And died.

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"Can a man still be brave if he's afraid?"

"That is the only time a man can be brave," his father told him.

But the question, what bravery will Aegon be pushed into?

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"Your father knew the dangers of being overbold."

I'll just say that Elia, the lance-wielder, has a strong connection to Aegon already:

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"Vengeance for Oberyn and Elia."

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"Prince Aegon was Rhaegar's heir by Elia of Dorne"

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"You raped her. You murdered her. You killed her children."

TLDR: Aegon's and Elia Sands' story parallels Rhaegar and Lyanna's, and will end tragically.

[Lord Lannister]

I will agree with you about (f)Aegon being likely to show he's a young man with the rashness that comes with that. I'm honestly not sure about him and Elia Sand though. That seems to be reaching a bit, though I suppose its not out of the realm of possibility. 

 

If anything Aegon might end up being taken by Arianne. She's an incredibly attractive woman and a sexual tiger and Aegon is a young man who's inexperienced sexually. Politically the Dornish alliance just makes too much sense for Aegon to turn down. Even if he had a thing with Elia, Arianne told Ser Arys that she'd be fine with sharing him with her cousins. If anyone is going to get having a paramour it'd be the Dornish. Not to mention there's precedent for conquering dragons to take multiple spouses.

[Egged]

52 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

I will agree with you about (f)Aegon being likely to show he's a young man with the rashness that comes with that. I'm honestly not sure about him and Elia Sand though. That seems to be reaching a bit, though I suppose its not out of the realm of possibility. 

 

If anything Aegon might end up being taken by Arianne. She's an incredibly attractive woman and a sexual tiger and Aegon is a young man who's inexperienced sexually. Politically the Dornish alliance just makes too much sense for Aegon to turn down. Even if he had a thing with Elia, Arianne told Ser Arys that she'd be fine with sharing him with her cousins. If anyone is going to get having a paramour it'd be the Dornish. Not to mention there's precedent for conquering dragons to take multiple spouses.

Accepting marrying Arianne, when Doran has not show he wants it so due to having his own plan, and Connington being against it for two reasons (ill thoughts of Elia Martell and wanting to wait for Dany), would imply breaking off with Connington and who knows what it would imply on Doran's side. Doran has been playing his never-ending chess game, and it wouldn't surprise me that if he was to hear what happened to Quentyn he'd believe the true story over Daenerys having burned him, creating a wedge between him and Arianne and the Sand Snakes who would be likely to take a brash rebellious view instead. Then add to this the Mountain being revealed to still be alive, which would push the Sand Snakes into action and could lure Aegon into it as well due to their shared connection on that end... I don't know, Arianne by all account is someone who "doesn't get what she wants", and the Arys Oakheart plot shows us how she fails to understand much at all, in fact she seems constantly confused about why people do what they do.

And Elia running past her on the horse I think is clear foreshadowing of her getting beaten to the finish line by Elia. The parallels to Lyanna can't be for no reason.

[Alexis-something-Rose]

I think we're in for a triangle very similar to the whole Elia/Rhaegar/Lyanna. If anything Elia Sand will give Jon Connington some sleepless nights and interesting flashbacks to help flesh out what happened between Rhaegar and Lyanna.

I'm most definitely in the camp that believes that Aegon will fall in love with Elia. Accomplished horsewoman and a jouster. She isn't going to end up in Aegon's vicinity just because.

[Egged]

8 minutes ago, Alexis-something-Rose said:

I think we're in for a triangle very similar to the whole Elia/Rhaegar/Lyanna. If anything Elia Sand will give Jon Connington some sleepless nights and interesting flashbacks to help flesh out what happened between Rhaegar and Lyanna.

I'm most definitely in the camp that believes that Aegon will fall in love with Elia. Accomplished horsewoman and a jouster. She isn't going to end up in Aegon's vicinity just because.

Right, I could see Aegon being married to Arianne, but unwillingly, out of necessity's sake. Then he ends up connecting with Elia. If Aegon ends up with a vision of his child being "the savior" after impregnating Elia, we might get a literal repeat of R+L. George might use this to shed light on what happened between R and L.

[Lord Lannister]

I'm not sure Elia Sand/Arianne/(f)Aegon would be comparable to Lyanna/Elia Martell/Rhaegar. At least in the terms of the political consequences of Lyanna's fiancé being spurned and Elia's children being threatened. 

Aegon choosing the Dornish over Dany could have consequences, but I largely get the feeling Dany wouldn't be interested in (f)Aegon and would consider him a threat, not an ally. The Dornish should be rightly angered when word reaches them that Quentyn was not only spurned but died under her roof to her dragons. Doran won't be happy about his plans going amiss, but he's always been more on planning than doing.

[Egged]

10 minutes ago, Lord Lannister said:

I'm not sure Elia Sand/Arianne/(f)Aegon would be comparable to Lyanna/Elia Martell/Rhaegar. At least in the terms of the political consequences of Lyanna's fiancé being spurned and Elia's children being threatened. 

Aegon choosing the Dornish over Dany could have consequences, but I largely get the feeling Dany wouldn't be interested in (f)Aegon and would consider him a threat, not an ally. The Dornish should be rightly angered when word reaches them that Quentyn was not only spurned but died under her roof to her dragons. Doran won't be happy about his plans going amiss, but he's always been more on planning than doing.

Right now what indication we have of Dany's feelings towards Aegon is that she says she could have married him if he was alive. Her vision of Rhaegar saying he would be king, coupled with him being alive after all, would contribute to her belief that "it is meant to be", especially this Rhaegar said "there must be another" and "the dragon has three heads".

Also remember Tyrion's warning:

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"Your father knew the dangers of being overbold."

The prince stared at the playing board. "My dragon—"

"—is too far away to save you. You should have moved her to the center of the battle."

That could hold back Aegon from accepting a marriage as much as Connington has explicitly said Aegon must wait in case Dany does come.

[Lord Lannister]

4 minutes ago, Egged said:

Right now what indication we have of Dany's feelings towards Aegon is that she says she could have married him if he was alive. Her vision of Rhaegar saying he would be king, coupled with him being alive after all, would contribute to her belief that "it is meant to be", especially this Rhaegar said "there must be another" and "the dragon has three heads".

Also remember Tyrion's warning:

That could hold back Aegon from accepting a marriage as much as Connington has explicitly said Aegon must wait in case Dany does come.

It's an interesting point, though Dany has grown into herself a lot since those events. I could see her thinking Aegon has to be a fake solely for the reason she would have to share the power she earned for herself with him if he wasn't. I suppose we'll see.

On that subject I could see (f)Aegon gaining some of that same power for himself and less inclined to "wait" for Dany the more he wins on the fields of Westeros. Why sacrifice an alliance with the Dornish today for a tomorrow with Dany that may never come? With his aggressive moves against Storm's End, he seems to be going down the "overbold" road of his father. 

[Rondo]

We really don't know what took place back then.  Rhaegar was doing his duty correctly if he was ordered by King Aerys to kidnap Lyanna and hold her hostage.  Her family was plotting against the Targaryens.  Aerys had all the justification needed to do what he felt necessary to stop the Starks. 

This new Aegon is not the same man as his supposed father.  He will be aiming for the usurper's dogs to make them bend the knee.  Jaime will be one of his main targets.  I don't think this kid will lose his focus.  Arianne is very interested in revenge as well.  Daenerys is the only person who can snap him out of his objective by proving he's not Aegon Targaryen.  The thing about love, honor, duty is not a major theme of Aegon's storyline.  

[chrisdaw]

Aegon marries Arianne in what will be a doomed marriage of lust between two hot headed juvenile personalties. An affair between Aegon and Elia is plausible, Arianne will likely have her own trespasses once Aegon's pretty boyish novelty wears off.

[Targaryeninkingslanding]

I like the idea of Targaryens marrying for love and it woking out difficulty. it does seem to happen a lot. I kinda want it to be Myrcella though since she is headed north soon enough anyways. wouldn't that just ruin so much planing? maybe she gets joined by the dornish. A dornish love just seems too... appropriate.

[Moiraine Sedai]

Aegon will already have the Lannisters to deal with. Is there time for this extra drama to develop?

[Egged]

8 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

Aegon will already have the Lannisters to deal with. Is there time for this extra drama to develop?

Who says this drama won't proceed it? Who says the sand snakes and Aegon will survive this drama to begin with?

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"You raped her. You murdered her. You killed her children."

 

[Bloodraven’s Spider]

Interesting take. I like it. I think the Aegon’s encounter with Arriane is going to be disastrous (for her) Arriane and the party she is traveling with were never at court in the beginning of Aegon’s life, they have never seen connington… How is she supposed to decipher if he is real or not? Be it her own doing or Elia warming up to Aegon I don’t see this ending well for her and her party. 

 

Aegon legit, R+L= A

Jon legit, N+A= J

[Darth Sidious]

Arrianne will lose her head over the handsome lad. She’s emotional. I guess he is too, in his own way.  She won’t care if he’s real or even if his chances are good. She will bind house Martell to his cause.  And there lies the death of the Martell rule. Many in Dorne will side against them. King Tommen can promise to elevate another Dornish family in exchange for services.  The Martells will be victims of another red wedding.  

[Moiraine Sedai]

On 9/13/2021 at 9:09 PM, Egged said:

Who says this drama won't proceed it? Who says the sand snakes and Aegon will survive this drama to begin with?

 

The SS may die from the war with the lions but Aegon will survive to meet Dany.  He is the second lie mentioned in the prophecies.  

[Egged]

Just now, Moiraine Sedai said:

The SS may die from the war with the lions but Aegon will survive to meet Dany.  He is the second lie mentioned in the prophecies.  

Could also not be that.

[Lord Lannister]

16 hours ago, Moiraine Sedai said:

The SS may die from the war with the lions but Aegon will survive to meet Dany.  He is the second lie mentioned in the prophecies.  

I think those "prophecies" are designed to harm Dany and not help her. They contain enough nuggets of truth for her to take it seriously, but are vague enough to keep her guessing and distrustful of everyone around her. Which I think was the point, to paralyze Dany with fear.

[Daeron the Daring]

On 9/12/2021 at 7:37 PM, Lord Lannister said:

Aegon choosing the Dornish over Dany could have consequences, but I largely get the feeling Dany wouldn't be interested in (f)Aegon and would consider him a threat, not an ally. The Dornish should be rightly angered when word reaches them that Quentyn was not only spurned but died under her roof to her dragons. Doran won't be happy about his plans going amiss, but he's always been more on planning than doing.

The reason I personally don't think she will be considering initially Aegon or Jon (if she'll ever know) a threat is just his expressed feelings about this. I'm not really talking about her thinking she would've married her, but about her toughts (which appears multiple times) of the persons she has to find aho will ride her dragons and whom she can entirely trust. She's so far ain't a megalomaniac that wouldn't be able or willing to 'share' power, and if she begins her relationships with her own supposed kin in an offensive way, well, then she'll not gonna approach her own goals, which isn't rulership. 

[Lord Varys]

If Aegon were to marry a Dornish bastard he could just as well shoot himself. That's something a stupid pisswater prince would do, not somebody of high birth and high breeding. I get it why the parallel to Lyanna is intriguing, but Lya was a Stark of Winterfell, Elia is just a Sand - and a Dornishwoman at that.

With her at his side his campaign would fail before it started.

Also, I don't believe for a moment that Aegon is stupid enough to behave like Robb. He has been raised as a Targaryen. He might take what's offered, but I don't see him ever marrying a woman who is beneath him. Especially considering the fact that Elia's father also never married her mother ... so why the hell should Aegon behave differently.

If Aegon is going to marry a woman it will be Arianne - and considering that Arianne is one of the most beautiful women of her generation and an experienced seductress Aegon will have no chance but to fall for her if she were determined to make him fall in love with her.

Elia Sand is more likely going to be a catalyst for Jon Connington's memories as well as somebody who might do something rash. For instance, we could see her being stupid enough to fall into the hands of the Tyrells during/after the coming battle(s). If she were raped or killed tensions might rise ever higher, especially if the Sand Snakes in KL get wind of that.