The Wheel of Time TV Show 5: Eye of the Fandom [BOOK SPOILERS]

[A True Kaniggit]

7 minutes ago, Rhom said:

I don't think those two numbers are mutually exclusive.  The Aes Sedai do a really really poor job of scoping out talent.  There are multitudes of people who can channel that never know it or are members of the Windfinders/Wise Ones/Damane/etc.

I’d call that a really really piss poor job by the Aes Sedai. If the number is still 3 percent then they are unbelievably incompetent.

[Rhom]

Just now, A True Kaniggit said:

I’d call that a piss poor job by the Aes Sedai. If the number is still 3 percent then they are unbelievable incompetent.

I think that's pretty evident... and also part of the constant arguments for the past five pages! 

But seriously, I agree.  Look how surprised they were at the number of girls who could channel in the Two Rivers when they went out there.  Look how surprised they were to discover that there were channelers at all amongst the Wise Ones and the Sea Folk.  They had a vision of what they thought the world was and they shaped their perception to match.

[A True Kaniggit]

19 minutes ago, Rhom said:

I think that's pretty evident... and also part of the constant arguments for the past five pages! 

But seriously, I agree.  Look how surprised they were at the number of girls who could channel in the Two Rivers when they went out there.  Look how surprised they were to discover that there were channelers at all amongst the Wise Ones and the Sea Folk.  They had a vision of what they thought the world was and they shaped their perception to match.

Naaah. The number can not be correct for the current age. I have to find the quote, but the number of channelers compared to population size doesn’t work out for the Shaido I think. We get a hard number for them.

[Poobah]

The number is probably lower in the current age because of the genetics of it all, but not necessarily that much lower.

Many people born with the inborn spark just die because the Aes Sedai never find them, and most of those that survive don't become Aes Sedai since they don't meet the criteria for youth - they need to be young enough to indoctrinate afterall - even Nynaeve was nearly denied for being too old to start and she's only in her mid-twenties. There are significantly more people who can learn if they want than have the inborn spark (as we see, for instance, with the radio of sul'dam to damane) and while everyone who could channel or wanted to learn was found and taught if they wished in the Age of Legends the options for learning to channel in the third age are strictly limited - the Aes Sedai do zero active recruitment so in the wetlands you need to be in that tiny venn diagram slice that matches both "able to learn to channel" and girl / young woman willing to leave home between your mid teens up to maybe early twenties and travel to Tar Valon for the chance to maybe become an Aes Sedai, though given how superstitious and backward we see most places have gotten (see how Emond's Field reacts to Moiraine) they're as likely to go with the word witch with all attached stigma so that's a pretty rare young woman even before considering the travel distances and how poor most people are.

[A True Kaniggit]

1 hour ago, Poobah said:

The number is probably lower in the current age because of the genetics of it all, but not necessarily that much lower.

Many people born with the inborn spark just die because the Aes Sedai never find them, and most of those that survive don't become Aes Sedai since they don't meet the criteria for youth - they need to be young enough to indoctrinate afterall - even Nynaeve was nearly denied for being too old to start and she's only in her mid-twenties. There are significantly more people who can learn if they want than have the inborn spark (as we see, for instance, with the radio of sul'dam to damane) and while everyone who could channel or wanted to learn was found and taught if they wished in the Age of Legends the options for learning to channel in the third age are strictly limited - the Aes Sedai do zero active recruitment so in the wetlands you need to be in that tiny venn diagram slice that matches both "able to learn to channel" and girl / young woman willing to leave home between your mid teens up to maybe early twenties and travel to Tar Valon for the chance to maybe become an Aes Sedai, though given how superstitious and backward we see most places have gotten (see how Emond's Field reacts to Moiraine) they're as likely to go with the word witch with all attached stigma so that's a pretty rare young woman even before considering the travel distances and how poor most people are.

But this is only the case in the Wetlands.

The Aiel and the Seanchan (though in different ways) do find every female channeler born among them. 
 

I do not think the numbers add up. I’ll give my Shaido example in a bit. I have to find where I left that book. 
 

Edit: Can’t find it in my room. Maybe I left Crossroads of Twilight in the back seat of the car. Wish me luck. 

Edit 2: Was not in the car. The only thing in there was Last Argument of Kings.

Edit 3: Found it. Time fore some math. I'll spoiler it to save space, and since I'll use some direct quotes from the books.

 

"..... I would say perhaps four hundred. Perhaps more. but fewer than five hundred...... and perhaps 50 apprentices." (Crossroads of Twilight page 274.)

I'm just going to use 500 channeling Shaido Wise Ones to keep it simple. All the Aiel Clans seem to find every female channeler born among them. Times two to include men would make it 1,000 channelers for the Shaido. 1,000 is only about 3% of 34,000. This makes no sense whatsoever for a population that can send over 100,000 warriors into battle. The 3% number is wrong for the current age by a wide margin. (I'm not even including the fact channelers have a lifespan hundreds of years longer than a regular human being. It would make the ratio even worse if we accounted for that)

[Werthead]

20 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I suppose that’s only for the Age of Legends? Because if it’s supposed to be for the current age as well, then something is very wrong.

Round up to 1 thousand Aes Sedai. That’s 3% of 33,000.

I’m fairly certain most of the countries number in at least the millions. 

Yes. In the current Age it's a lot less.

The primary causes of the discrepancy are killing or gentling every man who can channel who has the inborn spark, which immediately knocks you down towards 1.5%, and then not finding many or any women who can learn to channel (as opposed to those with the inborn spark), which immediately drops the remainder well below 1%. I think at one point RJ said that the ratio of people who can learn to channel versus having the spark is around 3:1, but I think he changed his mind later on, as it feels more like 10:1 or even higher. Learners are always weaker than sparkers though.

There's also a lot of people with the inborn spark who die (apparently from a fever or whatever) before Aes Sedai can find them.

The percentage of people who can channel and are active (i.e. Aes Sedai, wilders, Kin, Windfinders) is probably something like 0.1% and that's being rather generous. Certainly as the series continues, the number of potential channellers that are actively recruited by the Black Tower, Egwene etc rapidly explodes into the thousands and keeps going like gangbusters, showing how much untapped potential there is in the general population.

The population of the Westlands is probably ~100 million at the lower end, Seanchan is likely at least twice that, so even if the total, maximum potential number of channelers on the continent is 3 million, the number who are active and doing stuff is might be well under 100,000, and maybe less than 10,000. The Aes Sedai are merely the most visible tip of the iceberg.

[fionwe1987]

RJ has definitely said the number is 1%, driven by both men being gentled, and Aes Sedai keeping themselves off the gene pool. I always used to darkly joke that Ishamael's true master stroke was to probably convince the Aes Sedai they shouldn't marry of have kids. 

Seanchan has a similar issue. Damane are not supposed to be "used" for sex.

(Aside: The Seanchan find it nauseating, like sleeping with a dog, which in turn is utterly dehumanizing and loathsome. Whether he quite intended this or not, the Seanchan are a truly grotesque society that the TV show better handle well, or they'll have a lot of public blowback. 

Some readers have a tendency to excuse them, or worse, see their competence and think they're better than the Aes Sedai, but I hope the show doesn't make that mistake. The Aes Sedai are bumbling, overly flexible on their morals, and some are outright toxic, but their organization as a whole has a much better record when it comes to not being awful to a huge swathe of humanity. )

 

And sul'dam tend to not marry and have kids either.

It's only among the Aiel and Sea Folk that you see much better numbers, because not only to women give birth, they also do so for a much longer period of time, in proportion to their expanded lifespans. 

Still, even the Aiel don't make every woman who can channel become a Wise One. Only those born with the spark have no choice. I'd imagine it's the same with the Sea Folk. 

In the mainland, what does save them, in the end, is that because the Aes Sedai have started doing such a piss poor job of recruiting, even as they reduced the number of channelers born by not having kids, they also started alienating the main populace enough that plenty of women who could have been Aes Sedai easily, if they'd been found, instead never realized they could channel, and married and had kids. So it's that continuation of available channelers that allows Egwene to open the Novice Book and suddenly get a 1000 Novices in a month. 

Once Traveling and Egwene's decision to actively recruit go into effect, I suspect the Aes Sedai are gonna get much better in terms of their numbers, and reflect the fact that roughly 1 percent of the population can channel.

[Myrddin]

14 hours ago, fionwe1987 said:

Whether he quite intended this or not, the Seanchan are a truly grotesque society that the TV show better handle well, or they'll have a lot of public blowback. 

Having Matt marry into the royal household was either total genius or complete folly. Can't decide which (taveren influence aside). He would be as repulsed as us (the reader) at their prejudices and social hierarchy. 

 

[fionwe1987]

2 hours ago, Myrddin said:

Having Matt marry into the royal household was either total genius or complete folly. Can't decide which (taveren influence aside). He would be as repulsed as us (the reader) at their prejudices and social hierarchy. 

 

Yes, and I'd have liked RJs attempt at seeing how he tries to work it out.

 

Sanderson seemed to have pretty much ignored that angle. Mat pretty much allowed the entirety of captive Sea Folk Windfinders escape as a diversion for his own escape, but he definitely also did it because he wasn't ok with holding damane. I really don't like that he more or less makes his peace with it in aMoL. His own sister can channel. How're we supposed to buy this?

[Gertrude]

I have a feeling that since this was going to be looked at in more depth in the outrigger novels, it's why we got a less than satisfying conclusion in the books. It's a shame, because I kinda hate how Mat is mainly just ok with things and loves his horrible little Empress.

[fionwe1987]

5 minutes ago, Gertrude said:

I have a feeling that since this was going to be looked at in more depth in the outrigger novels, it's why we got a less than satisfying conclusion in the books. It's a shame, because I kinda hate how Mat is mainly just ok with things and loves his horrible little Empress.

Yeah that could be part of it, but I also don't think RJ would just abruptly have him be so blasé about it. As of Knife of Dreams, he's still firmly very against the whole damane system. He doesn't just take it as a given. 

Outriggers or not, the abrupt change seems at least partially related to Brandon's complete inability to write the character.

[Werthead]

46 minutes ago, Gertrude said:

I have a feeling that since this was going to be looked at in more depth in the outrigger novels, it's why we got a less than satisfying conclusion in the books. It's a shame, because I kinda hate how Mat is mainly just ok with things and loves his horrible little Empress.

The sequels.

The outriggers I believe were New Spring and two other books (one about Tam al'Thor's adventures and one about Moiraine and Lan just before Eye of the World). The Mat-in-Seanchan trilogy was a different project.

[Gertrude]

I was just reading some speculation on the character of Laila Ayabarra. I've seen it before, but it's popping up again with the nearness of the premier coming up.

Specifically there is talk about Perrin accidentally killing her in the thick of battle. Does anyone know where this is coming from? Is it pure speculation based on 'show not tell' why Perrin is now careful about his actions?

[Gertrude]

7 minutes ago, Werthead said:

The sequels.

The outriggers I believe were New Spring and two other books (one about Tam al'Thor's adventures and one about Moiraine and Lan just before Eye of the World). The Mat-in-Seanchan trilogy was a different project.

Oh, ok. I thought the outrigger concept was all related books no matter when they happen, but it doesn't really matter. He had more planned with Mat and Tuon. Personally, Tuon as a character and Seachan in particular never sounded appealing, but RJ's Mat might have been able to carry it. I'm just sad it ended for Mat like it did, saddled with a really unlikable wife. Kind of like seeing a friend marry someone none of your friends like, and hey, it's their relationship and none of our business, but you can't help feeling somehow sad about it.

[Poobah]

My headcannon re: the seanchan sequels is that Tuon would end up channelling instinctively after getting in some shit, and that'd lead to her ending the enslavement of channellers after some extra civil war and political action. IMO this is supported by the (unfulfilled) Legend mentioned in the companion and ToM glossary that "in a time of dire need, the Imperial family would return to the Towers of Midnight and "right that which is wrong."" which also notes that the creator of the a'dam was imprisoned there. IIRC the companion stuff (errors and all) is all from Jordan's notes? And it seems nicely circular that Tuon would end up channelling and probably be imprisoned there herself before learning the error of her ways.

I feel like Jordan was going somewhat in the direction of her learning from Mat (plus Setalle Anan) and showing that she was somewhat open-minded, just socialised / indoctrinated into the ways of her evil empire and had never had any of her beliefs questioned before. Sanderson didn't really develop that arc at all though and rather had her reset back to factory default as Fortuona, but assuming that Min was intended by Jordan to become a member of the imperial court (which does track, it seems very reasonable that the Seanchan "omens" are a warped legend of others with Min's talent) I think the double team of Min and Mat would've done well to carry some books and however whipped Mat gets around Tuon, Min doesn't take shit from anyone and wouldn't have put up with the evil ways the Seanchan treat channellers.

[fionwe1987]

20 minutes ago, Poobah said:

My headcannon re: the seanchan sequels is that Tuon would end up channelling instinctively after getting in some shit, and that'd lead to her ending the enslavement of channellers after some extra civil war and political action. IMO this is supported by the (unfulfilled) Legend mentioned in the companion and ToM glossary that "in a time of dire need, the Imperial family would return to the Towers of Midnight and "right that which is wrong."" which also notes that the creator of the a'dam was imprisoned there. IIRC the companion stuff (errors and all) is all from Jordan's notes? And it seems nicely circular that Tuon would end up channelling and probably be imprisoned there herself before learning the error of her ways.

I feel like Jordan was going somewhat in the direction of her learning from Mat (plus Setalle Anan) and showing that she was somewhat open-minded, just socialised / indoctrinated into the ways of her evil empire and had never had any of her beliefs questioned before. Sanderson didn't really develop that arc at all though and rather had her reset back to factory default as Fortuona, but assuming that Min was intended by Jordan to become a member of the imperial court (which does track, it seems very reasonable that the Seanchan "omens" are a warped legend of others with Min's talent) I think the double team of Min and Mat would've done well to carry some books and however whipped Mat gets around Tuon, Min doesn't take shit from anyone and wouldn't have put up with the evil ways the Seanchan treat channellers.

Added to the very inconvenient fact that Min swore Oaths to the Seanchan before, in Falme, and broke em, and broke em how? By engineering the escape of the future Amyrlin Seat, that's how. 

 

Yes, RJ definitely intended that. It's one of the few truly long games that was very satisfying in aMoL, too. Min needed something that wasn't Rand centric post the Last Battle anyway. And being appointed the one person who can say whatever she wants to the Empress of Seanchan, after the one person who could do so to the Dragon Reborn, is almost too perfect an end for her.

I agree with that headcanon. I didn't want the Seanchan reformed by the end of the series. I just wanted to see a path forward.

[Gertrude]

It's a nice headcannon, but people just reading the story without knowing there were plans for future works just get a fairly unsatisfactory ending to that particular line of story-telling and a seemingly random fate for Min. To be honest, it never crossed my mind that Min would stay with Mat and Tuon, vows or not. It makes more sense with future stories, but without that, not so much.

[fionwe1987]

50 minutes ago, Gertrude said:

It's a nice headcannon, but people just reading the story without knowing there were plans for future works just get a fairly unsatisfactory ending to that particular line of story-telling and a seemingly random fate for Min. To be honest, it never crossed my mind that Min would stay with Mat and Tuon, vows or not. It makes more sense with future stories, but without that, not so much.

I'd assumed she'd end up a Wise One, given that they treated her as one already, but this makes much more sense for her.

[A True Kaniggit]

Just now, fionwe1987 said:

I'd assumed she'd end up a Wise One, given that they treated her as one already, but this makes much more sense for her.

I wouldn’t think so. When the Aiel found out about Min’s powers, they began treating her with great respect. 
 

She never once showed an inclination to join their society. 

[SpaceChampion]

Can we switch the fates of Cadsuane and Egwene please?  Something must have gotten mess up in RJ's notes.