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The winds of winter predictions


Daenerysthegreat

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5 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

No offense but this is a severe misunderstanding of what this story is about.

At its core it's about a family that is dispersed in multiple directions and suffers a series of horrible tragedies - middle son crippled; father, mother, and older brother killed; their home destroyed and then occupied; their extended community of dependents, friends, and allies killed, dispersed, or subjugated; their homeland subjugated; their mother's nearby homeland ravaged by war  - and the remaining siblings, the oldest of whom Jon, is only 15, lose contact and knowledge of where each other are. each is alone, vulnerable, and completely bereft.

The engine, the driving force of the story is the reunification of the Starks and the resurrection of the family and what it stood for.

Everything else - the war of the five kings, Dany, esteros, mereen, dorne, the wall, the wildlings, even the others  - is background.

 

What then why did the author waste thousands of pages on it.

5 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

 

Bran is the central protagonist, with Arya very close second/co-protagonist. Tyrion is next, and he has special status as the author's alter ego, but the emotional core of the story is what happens to Bran, Arya, Jon, and Sansa, in basically that order.

Of course, the stark's roles in the other conflicts and stories and how they interact with the other main characters - Dany and Tyrion, in particular - is important and really the meat of the story. For example, how the starks figure into the eventual resistance to the others (which will be related to how they played into their origins centuries ago)  is, i suspect, the big story and big mystery of the books.

But asoiaf is at its core about children losing their parents and their home, being dispersed to the four winds, and then coming back together and prevailing.

of course GRRM could change this, as you suggest, but he won't. He's not the greatest artist ever of the english language ever, but he's a more than competent story teller, and what you're suggesting would be awful and disastrous.

 

If the starks are heroes then why do they have only 6 chapters in Affc and only 18 chapters in adwd. Like it or not the story has gotten bigger and the starks are getting sidelined

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13 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

What then why did the author waste thousands of pages on it.

If the starks are heroes then why do they have only 6 chapters in Affc and only 18 chapters in adwd. Like it or not the story has gotten bigger and the starks are getting sidelined

The Stark children were in a transitional phase in Feast/Dance and so had little to do.  That phase is over.  Essentially  the two books replace the intended 5-year gap. The Stark kids weren't intended to do much then anyway.  

Don't assume what is true now will continue unabated.  It won't.  If you went by Daenerys's chapter count in ACOK and ASOS, she was headed for minor status.  Obviously not the case.  I anticipate the Stark kids (Sansa, Arya, Bran) will get 5-7 chapters each in TWOW. 

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1 hour ago, Nevets said:

The Stark children were in a transitional phase in Feast/Dance and so had little to do.  That phase is over.  Essentially  the two books replace the intended 5-year gap. The Stark kids weren't intended to do much then anyway.  

 

That's just 1 reason. And the transitional phase is still going on and it didn't start all of a sudden in affc it started way back in the first book. The main reason they didn't have many pov was because we had other pov, cersei, brienne, jaine, sam, etc. 

 

1 hour ago, Nevets said:

 

Don't assume what is true now will continue unabated.  It won't.  If you went by Daenerys's chapter count in ACOK and ASOS, she was headed for minor status.  Obviously not the case.  I anticipate the Stark kids (Sansa, Arya, Bran) will get 5-7 chapters each in TWOW. 

I can see sansa getting 5-7 chapters but not the other two. There simply isn't much to do for them. Plus how would you fit the chapters in the book. And what about the new protagonists, Asha, arianne, brienne, areo. 

 

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7 hours ago, Brother Seamus said:

Bran is the central protagonist. with Arya very close second/co-protagonist

From a thematic perspective, maybe, but considering that Bran's only had seven chapters across the last three books, it certainly doesn't feel that way. He consistently has fewer chapters than almost every other PoV, and until ADwD his chapters were mostly unremarkable exposition dumps about old stories and legends, or travelling across barren landscapes. Only when he meets Bloodraven has his story started to feel more relevant and significant. 

If any of the "Stark" children were to be the central protagonist, I'd say it's Jon. He's had both a very large amount of page-time (tied for top place with Tyrion) and his role in the story is arguably more important than any other character at the moment. In comparison Arya is completely irrelevant. Despite Martin giving her an absurd amount of chapters which mostly just contain padding of her wandering around the riverlands and getting captured by everyone, she hasn't actually done anything significant from a larger storytelling perspective. The focus on the Stark family has decreased with each book - the last two books have contained only a dozen Stark PoV chapters between them - barely as many as the Greyjoys, and far fewer than the Lannisters.

Even though the entire series started with the Starks, I don't really believe that this means they're the most important thing in the series, and that everything will conclude with them. I think they were a very useful way to introduce the world of the series in a relatively contained way (the king's arrival at Winterfell), and expand the world by sending the family off in different directions. Rather than starting the series with PoVs in every region, Martin decided to expand the scope in a more gradual way.

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1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

From a thematic perspective, maybe, but considering that Bran's only had seven chapters across the last three books, it certainly doesn't feel that way. He consistently has fewer chapters than almost every other PoV, and until ADwD his chapters were mostly unremarkable exposition dumps about old stories and legends, or travelling across barren landscapes. Only when he meets Bloodraven has his story started to feel more relevant and significant. 

If any of the "Stark" children were to be the central protagonist, I'd say it's Jon. He's had both a very large amount of page-time (tied for top place with Tyrion) and his role in the story is arguably more important than any other character at the moment. In comparison Arya is completely irrelevant. Despite Martin giving her an absurd amount of chapters which mostly just contain padding of her wandering around the riverlands and getting captured by everyone, she hasn't actually done anything significant from a larger storytelling perspective. The focus on the Stark family has decreased with each book - the last two books have contained only a dozen Stark PoV chapters between them - barely as many as the Greyjoys, and far fewer than the Lannisters.

 

I agree that the stark family is just one of the major characters now. But I don't see how arya is completely irrelevant. Dany had less chapters than her and less effect on the westerosi story but Dany is very important. Plus jon snow is a snow. not a stark. 

 

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

 

Even though the entire series started with the Starks, I don't really believe that this means they're the most important thing in the series, and that everything will conclude with them. I think they were a very useful way to introduce the world of the series in a relatively contained way (the king's arrival at Winterfell), and expand the world by sending the family off in different directions. Rather than starting the series with PoVs in every region, Martin decided to expand the scope in a more gradual way.

Just think what would have happened if Mr Martin had started the series that way. 

Ned:My sister was kidnapped by rhaegar targaryen and my best friend is still in love with her despite being married for years. The lannisters are too ambitious for the realm. Honour is the way one should do things. 

Asha:I am my fathers heir since ned stark stole my brother. My mother has gone mad because stark stole my brother. 

Dany:The usurper killed my brother, and his dog stark and dog lannister helped him in killing the rest of my family

Cersei:Ned stark is a big fool. He is always looking to seperate me from my twin. I love my twin and my husband regularly rapes me. The targaryens are all mad and the Greyjoys are rapists and savages. 

Arianne:Rhaegar targaryen was a good man but he left my aunt to pursue the stark girl. The starks and lannisters are wrong. 

 

 

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7 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

That's just 1 reason. And the transitional phase is still going on and it didn't start all of a sudden in affc it started way back in the first book. The main reason they didn't have many pov was because we had other pov, cersei, brienne, jaine, sam, etc. 

 

I can see sansa getting 5-7 chapters but not the other two. There simply isn't much to do for them. Plus how would you fit the chapters in the book. And what about the new protagonists, Asha, arianne, brienne, areo. 

 

There was room, especially in AFFC.  They were mostly learning, so didn't need a lot of chapters. 

What about the new ones?  Arianne and Asha might have some importance if they take over for Cersei and Theon, respectively. Otherwise, not much.  Asha is mostly our eyes on Stannis for now, and all Arianne has done is gotten Myrcella injured.  Areo is a glorified camera.  Brienne has some importance, but is mainly support and observation. 

The main characters are the ones the story is about.  It's their experiences, thoughts, fears, hopes, desires, and the like that the story revolves around.  At this point, those characters are Jon, Daenerys, Arya, Sansa, Bran, and Tyrion, with Jaime, Cersei, Stannis, and maybe Theon also in the mix, but on the way out.  Guys like Barristan, Mel, Davos, Sam and the like may do important stuff, but the story isn't really about them.  Hence the enhanced chapters counts for the Stark kids.  They're main characters. 

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10 minutes ago, Nevets said:

There was room, especially in AFFC.  They were mostly learning, so didn't need a lot of chapters. 

What about the new ones?  Arianne and Asha might have some importance if they take over for Cersei and Theon, respectively. Otherwise, not much.  Asha is mostly our eyes on Stannis for now, and all Arianne has done is gotten Myrcella injured.  Areo is a glorified camera.  Brienne has some importance, but is mainly support and observation. 

The main characters are the ones the story is about.  It's their experiences, thoughts, fears, hopes, desires, and the like that the story revolves around.  At this point, those characters are Jon, Daenerys, Arya, Sansa, Bran, and Tyrion, with Jaime, Cersei, Stannis, and maybe Theon also in the mix, but on the way out.  Guys like Barristan, Mel, Davos, Sam and the like may do important stuff, but the story isn't really about them.  Hence the enhanced chapters counts for the Stark kids.  They're main characters. 

So more than half of affc was just useless? 

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On 10/11/2021 at 5:00 PM, Nevets said:

Jon Snow, Daenerys Targaryen, Bran Stark, Arya Stark, Sansa Stark, and Tyrion Lannister, in roughly that order. 

Of these, Tyrion is the only one I can imagine dying anytime soon.  The rest have too much of their arc to do.  Jaime, Cersei, Theon, and Stannis have been main characters, but their day is nearing its end.  They are yesterday's news, and will likely die or be sidelined in the next books.  Asha could quite possibly pick up Theon's story, and Arianne might take Cersei's spot in KL, although that is pretty iffy.  Barristan is a POV pretty much for coverage.  He is supporting cast.

I would actually put Sansa last in that list, though she is my favorite among them. And maybe even flip Arya behind Tyrion. Her adventures are some of the most interesting to read, but I’m still not sure where Arya fits in the overarching plot (besides riding Nymeria at the head of a wolf army sometime soon).

In comparison, Tyrion has a lot going on in Westeros and is deeply to tied to 4/5 of the other main characters. Sansa is his wife, Jon is his friend, he gave Bran a saddle and his siblings are Bran’s attempted murderers. He also spent an entire book trying to get to Dany and it’s all but confirmed that they meet at some point. While the Starks are all related, Tyrion is still the one pulling their plot together for plot reasons.

I also doubt that any of the six die anytime in TWOW. GRRM could surprise us, of course, but many characters who have passed have run out of new things to do. Robb and Catelyn were heading North, for example, and Joffrey had truly peaked. IMO, Tyrion will need to return to Westeros to have any kind of satisfying ending to his arc. Last we saw him canonically, he signed away the riches of Casterly Rock. IMO it would not be narratively satisfying if he didn’t actually have to face the consequences of that action or confront his siblings one last time.

Besides that person nitpick, I agree with you whole heartedly. Asha isn’t mentioned by name until ACOK and Arianne didn’t get named until ASOS. Neither they nor Cersei had a POV until FeastDance, so if they are the main characters GRRM is showing it in a very odd way. The same for Barristan. I’m fairly certain there was an interview where GRRM admitted that Barristan only got a POV because GRRM needed someone to talk about Meereen while Dany was gone and Barristan was the only viable option. Mostly since GRRM does not care much about far Essos, though some people do like to argue that Essos is more important than Westeros. 

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14 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

So more than half of affc was just useless? 

Not quite, but it sometimes feels like it.  AFFC gives us the consequences of previous books' events, wraps up some storylines, and sets up new ones. But for the most part, the new stories and characters will be there to affect the existing main characters.  If you think the likes of Barristan and Arianne are important in their own right, you are quite mistaken. They are there to support and observe. 

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18 minutes ago, Nevets said:

Not quite, but it sometimes feels like it.  AFFC gives us the consequences of previous books' events, wraps up some storylines, and sets up new ones. But for the most part, the new stories and characters will be there to affect the existing main characters.  If you think the likes of Barristan and Arianne are important in their own right, you are quite mistaken. They are there to support and observe. 

You are mistaken if you think arianne and barristan are not important. They are major characters, same as dany, sansa and tyrion

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6 hours ago, Nevets said:

Not quite, but it sometimes feels like it.  AFFC gives us the consequences of previous books' events, wraps up some storylines, and sets up new ones. But for the most part, the new stories and characters will be there to affect the existing main characters.  If you think the likes of Barristan and Arianne are important in their own right, you are quite mistaken. They are there to support and observe. 

Arianne isn't a good example. Her storyline actually is completely distinct and separate from any of the "existing main characters". Her storyline isn't related to characters like Jon, Arya, Bran, Sansa, Tyrion or even Daenerys at this point; the only PoV she'll likely have contact/relevance with for the foreseeable future is Jon Connington, and he is very far from a main character.

I know some people only want the series to be about the Starks and Tyrion and Daenerys, but the reality is that Martin wanted to massively expand the scope of the series, not just to add "set dressing" for the stories of the main characters, but because he was interested in the larger world and other characters' stories. An enormous amount of Feast would not have been kept if Martin only viewed his series as being about the Starks; he would have kept the five year gap if that was the case, because by his own admission there wasn't really much substance to the stories of Bran, Sansa and Arya after Storm. But the series has evolved beyond the point of just being about one really unlucky family; Martin has created an entire world of interesting families and factions, many of whom have very little to nothing to do with the Starks. And that's fine. I have no problem with it.

I think some people need to accept the fact that this series is no longer just about the Starks, and hasn't been for a long time. Maybe the final book will have a renewed focus on the family, but we won't know until we read it (and it will probably never be released). Martin would not have wasted years upon years of time, and countless hundreds of pages, on non-Stark/non-Tyrion/non-Dany stories if he didn't think they were important in their own right. He's clearly a man that loves detailed, immersive worldbuilding, and part of that is understanding that a world is larger than a small handful of characters, and Martin has proved that time and time again.

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1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Arianne isn't a good example. Her storyline actually is completely distinct and separate from any of the "existing main characters". Her storyline isn't related to characters like Jon, Arya, Bran, Sansa, Tyrion or even Daenerys at this point; the only PoV she'll likely have contact/relevance with for the foreseeable future is Jon Connington, and he is very far from a main character.

I know some people only want the series to be about the Starks and Tyrion and Daenerys, but the reality is that Martin wanted to massively expand the scope of the series, not just to add "set dressing" for the stories of the main characters, but because he was interested in the larger world and other characters' stories. An enormous amount of Feast would not have been kept if Martin only viewed his series as being about the Starks; he would have kept the five year gap if that was the case, because by his own admission there wasn't really much substance to the stories of Bran, Sansa and Arya after Storm. But the series has evolved beyond the point of just being about one really unlucky family; Martin has created an entire world of interesting families and factions, many of whom have very little to nothing to do with the Starks. And that's fine. I have no problem with it.

I think some people need to accept the fact that this series is no longer just about the Starks, and hasn't been for a long time. Maybe the final book will have a renewed focus on the family, but we won't know until we read it (and it will probably never be released). Martin would not have wasted years upon years of time, and countless hundreds of pages, on non-Stark/non-Tyrion/non-Dany stories if he didn't think they were important in their own right. He's clearly a man that loves detailed, immersive worldbuilding, and part of that is understanding that a world is larger than a small handful of characters, and Martin has proved that time and time again.

I would also like to point out the fact that out of the 19 remaining pov only 3 pov are starks. If we add tyrion and dany then only 5 povs. 

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On 10/20/2021 at 7:00 AM, StarksInTheNorth said:

I’m fairly certain there was an interview where GRRM admitted that Barristan only got a POV because GRRM needed someone to talk about Meereen while Dany was gone and Barristan was the only viable option. Mostly since GRRM does not care much about far Essos, though some people do like to argue that Essos is more important than Westeros. 

Yep, I can’t seem to find the interview but Barristan is plugged in Bc we need eyes In merreen. He is a boring pov and definitely not a main character. Neither is Arianne. What have either done to make them main characters.?

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2 minutes ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

Yep, I can’t seem to find the interview but Barristan is plugged in Bc we need eyes In merreen. He is a boring pov and definitely not a main character. Neither is Arianne. What have either done to make them main characters.?

Have a storyline and be leads in it. That's how one makes characters main characters. Arianne is definitely a main character and her role is ever expanding in twow

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5 hours ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

Yep, I can’t seem to find the interview but Barristan is plugged in Bc we need eyes In merreen. He is a boring pov and definitely not a main character. Neither is Arianne. What have either done to make them main characters.?

Highly disagree that he’s boring but I also enjoy the chapter where Sansa gets a new dress so I’m sure it’s an outlier. Arianne I view as a tertiary character. For me it’s something like this:

Main characters: original POVS- theBig 5/6, Cat and Ned

Secondary characters: the movers and shakers from early on in the series. They may not (originally) have POVs, but they define a lot of the series. Think Robb, Tywin, Cersei and Jaime, Varys and Petyr Baelish, etc. maybe controversial but I include Lysa since she kickstarts everything by killing Jon Arryn and Theon since he moves a lot of the Northern plot from ACOK on. 

Tertiary characters: they move a lot of events, but not as much as the secondaries. May or may not be POVs. Most of them only became relevant in the second arc of the series. Arianne, Asha, Euron, Doran, Oberyn, Daario, Margaery, etc. fall in here.

I’ve got a chart somewhere that goes out to the seventh degree on this, but everyone after Tertiary doesn’t do a lot of moving. Barristan is a 4th level for me, since he only moves things at the end of Dance.  

 

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5 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

Have a storyline and be leads in it. That's how one makes characters main characters. Arianne is definitely a main character and her role is ever expanding in twow

With that definition Aeron Greyjoy is equal to Arianne and their both equal to Daenerys or Bran, who are the lead characters. Arianne’s existence wasn’t important until FeastDance so while she has a plot it’s not one of the main ones of the series is. 

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4 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

Highly disagree that he’s boring but I also enjoy the chapter where Sansa gets a new dress so I’m sure it’s an outlier. Arianne I view as a tertiary character. For me it’s something like this:

Main characters: original POVS- theBig 5/6, Cat and Ned

Secondary characters: the movers and shakers from early on in the series. They may not (originally) have POVs, but they define a lot of the series. Think Robb, Tywin, Cersei and Jaime, Varys and Petyr Baelish, etc. maybe controversial but I include Lysa since she kickstarts everything by killing Jon Arryn and Theon since he moves a lot of the Northern plot from ACOK on. 

Tertiary characters: they move a lot of events, but not as much as the secondaries. May or may not be POVs. Most of them only became relevant in the second arc of the series. Arianne, Asha, Euron, Doran, Oberyn, Daario, Margaery, etc. fall in here.

I’ve got a chart somewhere that goes out to the seventh degree on this, but everyone after Tertiary doesn’t do a lot of moving. Barristan is a 4th level for me, since he only moves things at the end of Dance.  

 

@WhatAnArtist! can you help me in this

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4 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

Main characters: original POVS- theBig 5/6, Cat and Ned

I agree with this.  I also have a sneaky suspicion that most of the POV characters introduced since were introduced with the understanding that they were temporary, and that GRRM would eliminate them.  I suspect that the POV arcs of Brienne, Jaime and Samwell, for instance, are already done, and henceforth these characters will appear only in the POVs of other characters.

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3 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

@WhatAnArtist! can you help me in this

I agree with @StarksInTheNorth with his/her division of characters in general, although I'd consider Euron to be a secondary character based on his importance to the larger plot, if not screen-time.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I agree with this.  I also have a sneaky suspicion that most of the POV characters introduced since were introduced with the understanding that they were temporary, and that GRRM would eliminate them.  I suspect that the POV arcs of Brienne, Jaime and Samwell, for instance, are already done, and henceforth these characters will appear only in the POVs of other characters.

Winds will definitely see a lot of PoVs culled, probably from having those storylines merged with older, more significant PoVs, e.g. Asha will be gone since she's met up with Theon, Barristan will be gone as soon as Tyrion and/or Dany show up in Meereen, etc. I'm almost certain that Brienne's PoV is over now that she's reunited with Jaime, although I think Jaime will definitely remain a PoV, at least for Winds. His story is not finished yet. Samwell's PoV won't be cut - he's our only PoV in that part of Westeros, and the Citadel/Oldtown is poised to become pretty important, it seems.

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