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Daenerysthegreat

The winds of winter predictions

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47 minutes ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

Did you even bother to read the rest of my post, or did you decide to jump straight to condescension?

Yes.  I read the rest of your post.  And I did not see the point of any of it.  But I guess it depends on what you are trying to prove.

What are you trying to prove, anyway?

And I read the rest of this post too.  And I agree that GRRM made the wall too high.  But by no logic that I can see does it prove to me that he can't count past 10, or that BryndenBFish and $erPounce know more about the book he is writing than he does.

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3 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

if we go by the rigid numbers set in your initial post re 13 POVs, It could very well be 11 confirmed, since we also know that there will be a prologue that shows Jeyne Westerling. F

GRRM does not include prologue and epilogue in his POV counts.  His count for ADWD was 16 POVs.

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We also know Davos is semi-confirmed because of multiple comments that we will see unicorns, and he’s the POV known to be heading to Skaagos where there are unicorns.

GRRM never said we would see unicorns in TWOW.  Check the sources yourself and see. 

Even if he did (he didn't) that would not mean we would see them from Davos' POV.

Even if we saw them, it might only when Davos returns to Westeros, riding a unicorn, in another character's POV.

That said, I'm not ruling out a Davos POV in TWOW.   I just don't think that the total POVs will be too far off from GRRM 13 POV estimate.

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Asha is semi-confirmed since we have seen a screenshot of a page narrated by her, and he was “visiting” her in 2020.

The only screenshot I know of is illegible to my eyes, and I don't have any faith in the magical powers of the fan who claimed to decipher it.

But if Asha can be deemed confirmed on the basis of GRRM "visiting" her, then that makes it (to my mind) all the less likely we will see Sam and/or Brienne and/or Jaime.  Which was my original point.

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He’s also stated there’s a complementary chapter between Arianne II and III,

A Hotah chapter, maybe.

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and that’s he’s decided to show the battle of Storms End on page.

Could be a prologue chapter featuring a one-off.

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JonCon is the only POV 100 leagues from Storms End, so we can consider him confirmed  

Sure.  "Confirmed" by you and Mr. Fish.  But not confirmed by GRRM.

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There, 13 POVs. Guess we’re not going to see Bran or Dany, but who cares? It’s not like they’re important to the plot, anyway. Or maybe 13 was an off-the-cuff number thrown out because he didn’t feel like counting how many POVs there are. 

Even if I give you Cersei, Asha and Hotah on the basis of GRRM "visiting" them, plus the 8 confirmed Sample Chapter POVs, that only brings us to 11. 

But for the sake of argument, lets assume 13 POVs are confirmed.  And let's assume we can't do without Dany and Bran (which is not self evident to me, especially in Bran's case, though I am slightly more confident we will see a Dany POV).  That brings us to 15.  15 is still closer to GRRM's guestimate than 16, 17, or 18 POVs would be.

Which means that GRRM's guestimate is still evidence against us seeing POVs for Sam, Jaime and/or Brienne.

I can see GRRM's guestimate being off by 1.  I can see (though it is more of a stretch) his estimate being off by 2.  But if you stretch it to 16, 17 or 18 because GURM is stupid, can't count, and you can't trust that crazy GURM, and because you think that Mr. Fish knows more about GURM's book than stupid GURM does, the less sense you will make to me.  And if you are really right about Bran and Dany being essential, then that (to my mind) makes it all the less likely that we will see Sam and/or Jaime and/or Brienne.  Which, again, was my original point:  that GRRM's 13-pov estimate kinda weighs against Sam, Brienne or Jaime appearing as POVs, and especially against all 3 appearing as POVs.

Edited by Mister Smikes

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2 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

 

There, 13 POVs. Guess we’re not going to see Bran or Dany, but who cares? It’s not like they’re important to the plot, anyway. Or maybe 13 was an off-the-cuff number thrown out because he didn’t feel like counting how many POVs there are. 

Dany and bran are the two most important characters. We need to have them. I highly doubt that is going to change. 

Edited by Daenerysthegreat

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Considering that Martin is well known for his extensive rewrites of his books, I'm surprised that people here are sticking so dogmatically to the believe that what he said in this interview or that is gospel and something that he will strictly adhere to. The guy has practically rewritten entire books and restructured the series in the past, midway through writing a book. Why is it so hard to believe that at some point he'll have changed his mind about how many PoVs will be included in Winds?

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

Which missed by a mile of course.

Only to people unable to read things carefully, it seems. I picked up on it instantly. Only someone that hasn't read the books would say that Dany and Bran aren't important. 

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39 minutes ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

 

Only to people unable to read things carefully, it seems. I picked up on it instantly. Only someone that hasn't read the books would say that Dany and Bran aren't important. 

You don't know how many people I've met here. Some believe in the most ridiculous theories. 

40 minutes ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Considering that Martin is well known for his extensive rewrites of his books, I'm surprised that people here are sticking so dogmatically to the believe that what he said in this interview or that is gospel and something that he will strictly adhere to. The guy has practically rewritten entire books and restructured the series in the past, midway through writing a book. Why is it so hard to believe that at some point he'll have changed his mind about how many PoVs will be included in Winds

I think he has added more pov than reducing them. I'm thinking about one of the two sand snakes in kings landing

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1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Only to people unable to read things carefully, it seems. I picked up on it instantly. Only someone that hasn't read the books would say that Dany and Bran aren't important. 

Are you insinuating I have taken the position that Dany and Bran aren't important?  Or are you accusing me of not having read the books?

Okay, maybe his sarcasm did not miss by a mile, seeing as it has convinced you I said things I never said.

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1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Considering that Martin is well known for his extensive rewrites of his books, I'm surprised that people here are sticking so dogmatically to the believe that what he said in this interview or that is gospel and something that he will strictly adhere to.

I don't think any person here has taken such a position.

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48 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

I think he has added more pov than reducing them. I'm thinking about one of the two sand snakes in kings landing

Surely Cersei's POV suffices for the murder of her children by evil Sand Snakes.

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36 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Surely Cersei's POV suffices for the murder of her children by evil Sand Snakes.

But cersei has lost all her power. She is now reduced to nothing. She is planned to be sent back to casterly rock if she wins. 

And the sand snakes are not evil

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10 minutes ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

But cersei has lost all her power. She is now reduced to nothing. She is planned to be sent back to casterly rock if she wins. 

The guy who was planning that just got offed by Varys, who I guess thinks Kings Landing more vulnerable to invasion with unstable Cersei in charge.  And Cersei does have Ser Gregor.

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And the sand snakes are not evil

Wanna bet?  I think they are about to murder children, and especially Tommen.  How many dead children would be enough for you to suspect they are maybe a bit evil?

[Sigh]  It takes the fun out of betting, when it will probably take another 5 years. 

Edited by Mister Smikes

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3 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

I'm thinking about one of the two sand snakes in kings landing

I would be very surprised if Martin added any new PoVs, and even if some were to be added, I highly doubt it'll be a Sand Snake. We already have Cersei's PoV in King's Landing, and we will soon have two that are nearby (JonCon and Arianne in the Stormlands). 

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Are you insinuating I have taken the position that Dany and Bran aren't important?  Or are you accusing me of not having read the books?

Okay, maybe his sarcasm did not miss by a mile, seeing as it has convinced you I said things I never said.

You said that @StarksInTheNorth's sarcasm about Dany and Bran being unimportant "missed by a mile". I said that it didn't, since I picked it up immediately. I implied that you hadn't read his comment carefully enough, if you thought he wasn't being sarcastic, since anyone claiming that Dany and Bran are unimportant obviously hadn't read the books, which surely isn't the case for anyone posting here.

 

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I don't think any person here has taken such a position.

This entire argument has been about exactly how many PoVs will be in Winds based on claims that Martin has made. My point was that it's futile to debate such things, since Martin constantly changes his plans and rewrites his books. He may have said there'll be 13 PoVs a while ago, but that could change any time. We won't know until we have the books in our hands.

2 hours ago, Daenerysthegreat said:

And the sand snakes are not evil

Yes they are. They want to murder innocent children and start a war which will kill many other innocent people. The people actually responsible for the crimes they want "justice" for are already dead. They just have a bloodlust.

Edited by WhatAnArtist!

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2 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

This entire argument has been about exactly how many PoVs will be in Winds based on claims that Martin has made. My point was that it's futile to debate such things, since Martin constantly changes his plans and rewrites his books. He may have said there'll be 13 PoVs a while ago, but that could change any time. We won't know until we have the books in our hands.

Nobody said "exactly" except the people trying to straw man my position.  There is a middle ground between claiming, on the one hand that 13 POVs has no margin of error and is engraved in stone forever; and claiming, on the other hand, that it is completely meaningless information because GRRM is a big fat stupid who knows less about his own book than we fans do.

Margin of error or no, GRRMs statement to Le Nouvel Observateur indicates he is planning a different sort of book than many fans are planning for him.  And that remains true even if the POV count ends up being 15, exclusive of prologue and epilogue.

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14 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

BBFish's leaps of logic extend far far beyond not considering GRRM changing his mind.

I admit, BryndenBFish does sometimes have leaps in logic in certain essays he writes, for example he has confirmation bias in the essay in which he wants to prove that the Battle of Bastards from the show will also happen in the books. Many of his essays are more or less "informed speculation" and it is quite possible that some of his findings will turn out to be wrong

However, none of that applies in his overview of The Winds of Winter. It is pretty much just a recap of everything George R. R. Martin said about The Winds of Winter over the years. The vast majority of what is mentioned in the article comes directly from his NotABlog, interviews with newspapers or Westeros.org's own So Spake Martin. Objective information, in other words.

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You can't trust that crazy GURM - trust us, the enlightened and orthodox fan community" seems a common attitude on these forums.
I'm not saying GRRMs statement was not a bit tentative.  But I'll trust GRRM tentative estimate of 13 POVs before I will trust $erPounce's absolute certainty of 18-20 POVs.  And if it ends up being off, I would expect it to be off by maybe 1 or 2 POVs, not 5-7 POVs.
The odds of a translation error seem minimal.  Le Nouvel Observateur is not an amateur outfit.

I didn't say you can't trust George, I'm saying that in the interview he temporarily underestimated how many POVs he has. It's nothing more than a small human error that is very understandable due to the pressure of the interview. Try counting all the POVs from FeastDance by memory, odds are you'll forget a few POVs.


And before you insinuate that I have claimed that George can't count, George has misstated before in interviews how many living POVs he has after the end of FeastDance:


People complain that the Dothraki are this one-dimensional barbarian society.
GRRM:    I haven't had a Dothraki viewpoint character though.
I guess it's too late to introduce one now.
GRRM:    I could introduce a Dothraki viewpoint character, but I already have like sixteen viewpoint characters. (…) (source)

One interview mentions 13 POVs, another mentions 16 POVs. FeastDance ends up with 20 living POVs.


You can easily doubt that of the 13 POVs, because George has already confirmed a larger number of POVs than that number:

  1. Aeron (TWOW Preview chapter)
  2. Arianne (TWOW Preview chapters)
  3. Arya (TWOW Preview chapter)
  4. Barristan (TWOW Preview Chapters)
  5. Sansa (TWOW Preview Chapter)
  6. Theon (TWOW Preview Chapter)
  7. Tyrion (TWOW Preview Chapters)
  8. Victarion (TWOW Preview Chapter)
  9. Areo (NotABlog,)
  10.  Asha (NotABlog)
  11. Cersei (NotABlog)
  12. Melisandre (NotABlog)
  13. Samwell (NotABlog)

These are all the POV that have been fully confirmed on his NotABlog. Furthermore, we have clear indications of other POVs, although not 100% confirmed:

  •  Davos. George has said several times that we are going to have unicorns in TWOW. As well as "no sex near unicorns". Although not fully confirmed, we can assume in that case that we will have a Davos POV in Skagos. (Source 1, Source 2)
  • Jon Connington: George said at a Worldcon that he plans to bring the Battle of Storm's End on-page. (A battle on the battlefield will not be narrated by Arianne, who will not be present on site, but by an experienced commander such as Jon Connington. Seems logical).
  • Bran: George R. R. Martin plans for Hodor's death to happen on-page and that is only possible from Bran's POV.

GRRM: "I thought they executed it very well, but there are going to be differences in the book. They did it very physically - 'hold the door' with Hodor's strength. In the book, Hodor has stolen one of the old swords from the crypt. Bran has been warging into Hodor and practicing with his body, because Bran had been trained in swordplay. So telling Hodor to 'hold the door' is more like 'hold this pass' - defend it when enemies are coming - and Hodor is fighting and killing them. A little different, but same idea." (Source: book "Fire Cannot Kill A Dragon)

So we already have thirteen characters that are 100% confirmed. We have three characters for whom there are clear indications in George's own interviews that they will likely get a POV. In addition, it is very unlikely that characters like Daenerys and Jon Snow will not get a POV (although it is possible).

Remarkably, Brienne and Jaime are not confirmed yet, but I would be surprised if neither of these two will have a POV in TWOW.  
Based on George's NotABlog and other interviews, we can rule out that TWOW will only have 13 POVs. (Almost) every living POV from FeastDance will make an appearance in TWOW. That one interview of 13 POVs contradicts other interviews and sources.

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I guess people will just have to travel about, and/or receive ravens, or discuss sailors rumors.

It can be done, if worked out properly. But should there be just 13 POVs in TWOW (which is actually disproven), there is a lot of off-screen information that needs to be covered in this way. Overuse of these techniques is not ideal, but it is obviously an option.

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Entire complex novels have been written from a single POV.  But somehow the fan community has convinced itself that you can't possibly tell a story with "only" 13 POVs.  Bizarre.

Bad argument. There are of course books with one POV. It's perfectly possible for most books (and you could probably write all of TWOW completely just from Bran's POV if you wanted to). But that doesn't mean The Winds of Winter should do the same. The book is simply different from other books and requires a specific approach, fitting in with the story the book is telling.

I don't see any necessity for a large amount of POVs from FeastDance not to appear in TWOW. It is perfectly feasible for George to have more than 13 POVs in a book. I don't see a problem that can only be solved by reducing the number of POVs in TWOW to 13. There are probably more efficient and less drastic solutions than that.

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It depends on where you think these storylines are going.

It is clear based on your post that you have a very different view of where the story is going and the relevance of certain storylines. I am of the opinion that the story arcs of many characters are not yet complete, but apparently you disagree.

Edited by $erPounce

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2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Nobody said "exactly" except the people trying to straw man my position.  There is a middle ground between claiming, on the one hand that 13 POVs has no margin of error and is engraved in stone forever; and claiming, on the other hand, that it is completely meaningless information because GRRM is a big fat stupid who knows less about his own book than we fans do.

Margin of error or no, GRRMs statement to Le Nouvel Observateur indicates he is planning a different sort of book than many fans are planning for him.

I tire of this already. It's clear you seem to relish in this type of argument, hence why you seem unwilling to call a truce here and accept the obvious: This is a pointless debate, because any one of us could be entirely correct or entirely incorrect about everything. Even Martin's own statements aren't even a guarantee of accuracy, since the man has repeatedly over the last two decades rewritten large chunks of the books and restructured the PoVs drastically in the process of writing them. This pointless argument is just a symptom of the extraoardinarily long wait for Winds; nobody would sit here arguing semantics and the difference between one or two PoVs if the wait hadn't been as long as it is. You and @$erPounce can continue this argument for months and it won't matter - not until we actually have the book in our hands and can count up the number of PoVs.

Edited by WhatAnArtist!

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