Would the Dance of the Dragons have still happened if Aemon and/or Baelon hadn't died?

[Daeron the Daring]

8 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

The way things are described throughout most of Jaehaerys' reign he really decided who would get a dragon and who didn't. Thus it makes little sense to assume that Laenor got a dragon without the king's permission, even if Seasmoke came from an egg laid by Meleys. We can also assume that Rhaenys was given permission by her royal grandfather to claim Meleys after Alyssa's death, just as Daemon was allowed to mount Caraxes after Aemon's death

What i meant is that this bit is contradictionary to what you claim about Jaehaerys. And not only that, but the fact that Rhaenys married Corlys with Jaehaerys' permission. The text points out Rhaenys informed Jaehaerys about her intentions, and he agreed. That would either way mean he gave his blessing to raising House Velaryon into a dynasty of dragonriders. That Jaehaerys was asked if Laenor is allowed to have a dragon just strenghtens the suggestion that he was fine with it. And even if he didn't do that, and Laenor received Seasmoke only because her mother had an egg/hatchling from Meleys, Jaehaerys agreed to that when he gave permission to Rhaenys, and more than likely considered it a possibility that a 16 year old girl might become a mother if she's married off. 

This just goes against the policy that you suppose Jaehaerys had. Just as Daemon and Vaegon. Daemon because he was a second son not intended to inherit, and Vaegon as well, because Jaehaerys pretty much wanted to do the same with him as he did with his older sons: make him a capable figure (on various levels) of THE family. 

I agree that Jaehaerys might not have pushed his younger children to ride dragons, but then again, Daella was afraid of them, Gael most likely never wanted to either given her personality, and of course, we don't know the usual age when people bonded with dragons or rode one. Prince Viserys, son of Aenys is never mentioned to be interested in dragons, his elder brother Aegon didn't ride one either only after his father's death. Aenys bonded with Quicksilver at a young age, but the dragon was a hatchling back then. It seems rather likely that people before didn't really rode dragons at young ages as it became usual at the end of Jaehaerys's reign. Especially if at those times these people awaited for larger beasts, just like Maegor did, but it might be Aegon the Uncrowned didn't claim one before either because there weren't big enough ones, and was better awaiting for older ones to become free of their bonds. And neither does everyone have to ride dragons. 

The really exceptional cases are Laena and Aemond claiming Vhagar at such young ages. Both cases are considered rather exceptional. All this might explain why Viserra and Saera never rode dragons 'while they could'. They simply might not have felt the need to claim one at that age, which was not unusual. 

[Jaenara Belarys]

On 9/25/2021 at 3:16 AM, Daenerysthegreat said:

Let's say baelon lives past infancy the dance would have been totally avoided .  Baleon would have married rhaenyra. 

He would've married his granddaughter? What? Even Targaryens don't do that. 

[Daeron the Daring]

12 minutes ago, Jaenara Belarys said:

He would've married his granddaughter? What? Even Targaryens don't do that. 

He's talking about Viserys' child with Aemma Arryn, who died after a day of his birth. 

[Jaenara Belarys]

1 minute ago, Daeron the Daring said:

He's talking about Viserys' child with Aemma Arryn, whi died after a day of his birth. 

Oh. . I'm an idiot. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

I mean, technically, yes. But there’s a paragraph somewhere before that where Jaehaerys tells Alysanne that Daella has to be married by year’s end and no explanation whatsoever is given as to why she has to be married ASAP at sixteen. That’s fairly young in Westeros, with plenty other brides being older but still of birthing age (Elia Martell was 22, for example). It’s not like Daella was trying to seduce her brother (Viserra) or sleeping around (Saera). Her parents knew she was weak and childish, so there is really no in-universe reason not to wait a little longer for her to grow up some more.

Well, in light of the fact that Jaehaerys and Alysanne married rather early, I guess part of the reason why their daughters were betrothed and married at earlier ages has something to do with that. Alysanne became a wife and mother at an early age, and saw little issue with that. At least at first. And Jaehaerys also became a husband and father at an early age.

1 hour ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

As an aside it’s also crazy to say the Faith wouldn’t take her since she can’t read. Plenty of peasants joined nunneries in the dark ages. 

It seems the Faith is different in this regard ... or Maegelle just wanted to spare Daella the fate of being a septa when she couldn't really do that. But, of course, there must be non-septa women living in a septry the way there are non-septons living in on the Quiet Isle.

1 hour ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

I was under the impression that Caraxes hatched from that egg, though it’s never stated.

It isn't stated, and Aemon clearly picks a dragon from the young drakes in the Dragonpit. If Caraxes were the dragon hatched from his egg he wouldn't have to pick him. He would have been bonded to him since he was a young child, like Rhaenyra bonded with Syrax, Aegon III with Stormcloud, Baela with Moondancer and Rhaena with Morning.

Instead, the whole dragon eggs plot seems to have been quietly dropped.

1 hour ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

I also wish GRRM had explored the power a dragon can give a woman in an unhealthy / abusive relationship. Marry a Targaryen princess to an abusive husband, she visits her family and bonds with a dragon, then suddenly it’s quite different Dynamics. 

That is an interesting idea - also it could have been great if Septa Rhaella, Septa Maegelle or Archmaester Vaegon had either been dragonriders from the start or had decided to mount a dragon later in life after they had already taken their vows. It would have been fun if a dragon had to be housed in the Citadel or next to the Starry Sept...

The same with the idea that a Targaryen dragonrider could have taken the black, living with his dragon at the Wall.

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

What i meant is that this bit is contradictionary to what you claim about Jaehaerys. And not only that, but the fact that Rhaenys married Corlys with Jaehaerys' permission. The text points out Rhaenys informed Jaehaerys about her intentions, and he agreed. That would either way mean he gave his blessing to raising House Velaryon into a dynasty of dragonriders. That Jaehaerys was asked if Laenor is allowed to have a dragon just strenghtens the suggestion that he was fine with it. And even if he didn't do that, and Laenor received Seasmoke only because her mother had an egg/hatchling from Meleys, Jaehaerys agreed to that when he gave permission to Rhaenys, and more than likely considered it a possibility that a 16 year old girl might become a mother if she's married off. 

I don't think there is any reason to believe that Jaehaerys, in 90 AC, would object to Corlys Velaryon marrying Rhaenys and their children being dragonriders one day. Rhaenys was the daughter of his eldest son, and Aemon and Rhaenys were both dragonriders already. House Targaryen would be continued by Aemon's daughter in any case, so no reason to expect he would not like it that the children of Rhaenys and Corlys would be dragonriders.

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

This just goes against the policy that you suppose Jaehaerys had. Just as Daemon and Vaegon. Daemon because he was a second son not intended to inherit, and Vaegon as well, because Jaehaerys pretty much wanted to do the same with him as he did with his older sons: make him a capable figure (on various levels) of THE family. 

Not sure what you mean there. I think it odd that Jaehaerys didn't give Vaegon a dragon in light of the fact that he wanted him to be a proper prince like Aemon and Baelon. He didn't want him to go to the Citadel until he was effectively already a man grown.

That I think Jaehaerys and Baelon didn't want Daemon around at court I think has more to do with the kind of man Daemon eventually became ... not so much with whether Daemon was worthy of a dragon or not.

Caraxes became available in 92 AC, so Daemon could have become a dragonrider years before his betrothal/marriage to Rhea Royce.

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

I agree that Jaehaerys might not have pushed his younger children to ride dragons, but then again, Daella was afraid of them, Gael most likely never wanted to either given her personality, and of course, we don't know the usual age when people bonded with dragons or rode one. Prince Viserys, son of Aenys is never mentioned to be interested in dragons, his elder brother Aegon didn't ride one either only after his father's death. Aenys bonded with Quicksilver at a young age, but the dragon was a hatchling back then. It seems rather likely that people before didn't really rode dragons at young ages as it became usual at the end of Jaehaerys's reign. Especially if at those times these people awaited for larger beasts, just like Maegor did, but it might be Aegon the Uncrowned didn't claim one before either because there weren't big enough ones, and was better awaiting for older ones to become free of their bonds. And neither does everyone have to ride dragons. 

The situation with the children of Aenys also doesn't make much sense. We know that Jaehaerys and Alysanne were given dragons at a very early age and they even rode them at a very early age. Rhaena also got her dragon at an early age and rode Dreamfyre at an early age.

But the two sons who clearly were destined to continue the male branch of House Targaryen - Aegon and Viserys - were dragonless. That's just very odd. Even more so, when Rhaena and Aegon go on their progress - the king realizes that Aegon is dragonless, so why not have him mount a dragon before he starts his progress?

Politically, giving dragons to Jaehaerys and Alysanne was very weird since, assuming the elder sons never became dragonriders, the younger children who were not suppoed to continue the ruling branch would have much more prestige ... to the point that they could become a danger to the main branch.

That's just very weird.

Jaehaerys' policies made sense - he limited the dragons to the eldest members of the family, not the younger ones and the women.

Of course, Jaehaerys had the tragedy of Aerea to consider - a Targaryen claiming a dragon she may not have been suited for, and doing that without royal permission. It seems the dragons were put in the Dragonpit and away from unauthorized potential riders.

1 hour ago, Daeron the Daring said:

The really exceptional cases are Laena and Aemond claiming Vhagar at such young ages. Both cases are considered rather exceptional. All this might explain why Viserra and Saera never rode dragons 'while they could'. They simply might not have felt the need to claim one at that age, which was not unusual. 

Laena and Aemond aren't that exceptional - Rhaenyra, Rhaena, Jaehaerys, and Alysanne all also rode dragons at a very early age.

For Jaehaerys and Alysanne we have to assume that they rode Vermithor and Silverwing at least in the year 44 AC, when Jaehaerys was ten and Alysanne eight, but possibly even earlier than that (they could have also ridden their dragons late in 41 AC, when Aenys moved his court to Dragonstone). Else, they could have never gotten from Dragonstone to wherever they hid from Maegor before the proclamation at Storm's End (we have to assume that their mother rode with them either on Vermithor or Silverwing). There is no chance at all that they could have taken the dragons with them if they had fled by ship. People would have ratted them out to Maegor in five seconds since there is no chance to hide dragons who were large enough to be viewed as a challenge to Balerion in 48 AC on a ship.