Did Varys originally want Tyrion dead?

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Hazel-rah said:

The context is a little different. He was AWOL by then anyways. By the way, I think you're right i'm just poking holes. The point about Varys' whistling is on point. I just think you went down the wrong track by saying stuff like "Lord Varys doesn't get pushed around by cripples" lol. But again the Lord Regent of the Seven Kingdoms was a cyvasse piece he was keen to get rid of at that point in the story.  Imagine if Varys killed Jaime in the moment. That would just be plain unlike him. You must concede to that if you're so adroitly named. Does he have the ability to do so? Yes, but he just would never do it. His means and capabilities are moot. 

The overall issue isn't that Varys would kill Jaime at that point - it is just that I don't buy the idea that he was surprised and subsequently forced to free Tyrion. Even if Varys had been surprised, he could have done away with Jaime and/or Tyrion down in the dungeons, Pycelle-Kevan style.

And if Varys had not wanted to leave the Small Council and go underground he would have found ways to deal with the Jaime situation in a manner that didn't cause him to lose his standing with the powerful - say, by informing Tywin/Cersei about what Jaime wanted to do and/or by luring them down into the dungeons to watch and subsequently capture Jaime in at his attempt to free Tyrion.

And to ensure the Lannisters couldn't wiggle out of this/try to resolve the issue within the family, he could have also inform the Tyrells so that they would witness the entire charade, too.

But, of course, Varys isn't pushed around by a cripple like Jaime. It is far-fetched to assume that Jaime was a real physical threat to Varys at that point.

Folks who doubt that don't seem to get the Varys character - the guy grew up on the streets. He knows how to fight and he knows how to kill. Not with a sword or on horse back, but with a dagger and a knife and his hands in some dark alley.

[Takiedevushkikakzvezdy]

On 10/2/2021 at 10:19 PM, Lord Varys said:

Varys is only honest/himself, in my opinion, when his voice goes dark and he sounds hard and not likely his slimy, effeminate fake persona ... which only happened twice so far. When he told Tyrion the story about his castration and when he told Kevan about Aegon.

Interestingly, GRRM said that this story was only from Varys' point of view and isn't necessarily the objective truth.

[Hazel-rah]

1 hour ago, Lord Varys said:

Varys isn't pushed around by a cripple

Varys isn't intimidated by disabled people. Got it. 

[James Arryn]

IMO both sides here are slightly exaggerating.

 

First, Jaime is not suddenly a clumsy person. He is a guy whose entire life has been devoted to martial arts. Among other things it’s very common to fight with a weapon in each hand, often a sword and dagger, and shields are also used offensively. He is not going to suddenly lose his exceptional speed, strength, agility, balance, timing, etc. He is specifically clumsy…more specifically feels clumsy…at sword fighting because that’s been his dominant hand. And he is unable to do things that specifically require two hands/dominant hand like buttoning or writing. But he’s still an exceptional athlete. If he got the drop on Varys he could probably reliably subdue him.
 

But…it’s extremely unlikely he’d get the drop on Varys. Not because Varys has superpowers or is some high level assassin, but rather because if sneaking into his room was all it took to get the drop on him he’d not have lasted very long in his line of work. If he didn’t routinely have his quarters under surveillance he’d certainly leave physical clues…hairs in the doorway or similar…to alert him that someone has been inside. Not just for his own physical safety…remember he knows that a lot of people know he possesses dangerous information, so searching his rooms or trying to attack him would be a regular danger…but also to find out who is trying to get access to him and/or his intel. 
 

I also agree that Jaime getting the drop on him would not have necessitated a lot of the follow through we see, and he could have at least escaped if not attacked Jaime as soon as they started climbing ladders or going into his secret network of tunnels. So while I don’t think we can know for certain how much he planned for Jaime to ‘force’ him, I think we can assume that at the very least once push came to shove he decided it was at least not contrary to his plans, if not beneficial. Certainly it’s another stress fracture in House Lannister. And I’m almost 100% sure he nudged Tyrion into killing his father. I even entertain the possibility that Tywin wasn’t even Shae’s lover, but that’s highly speculative. 
 

Now one thing that’s always puzzled me is why civil war would be detrimental to Aegon’s invasion. It’s a pretty basic military maxim that attacking an engaged enemy is much more advantageous than attacking one with nothing else to occupy them. As the saying goes, if your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt them. 

[chrisdaw]

10 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

A ship is ready to take Tyrion to Pentos in that very night - a ship Varys could not just wish into existence. Not to mention the entire charade with Shae which is something Varys has been setting up for quite some time at this point.

Fortunately for Varys ships exist in huge harbour cities without the need for him to wish them into existence. 

There is no Shae charade Varys was setting up.

[Lord Varys]

13 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

Fortunately for Varys ships exist in huge harbour cities without the need for him to wish them into existence. 

We have sufficient hints to conclude that the ship Tyrion took had Illyrio's agents on board. While not impossible, it would be a very lucky coincidence that he could arrange this so quickly. If it hadn't been prepared earlier the Lannisters should have been able to quickly figure out which ship Tyrion took ... because they control more assets than Varys.

Nobody but Varys and Illyrio's own agents are loyal to them ... they have to be at the ready to do something for them, or else this doesn't work. Tyrion is a convicted kingslayer and also ended up murdering the Hand, his own father. Anyone in KL knowing anything about his means of escape would talk.

Yet the Lannisters don't have any clue that Varys works with a high level magister of Pentos, nor do they suspect that one Illyrio Mopatis might be harboring him. In fact, they seem to be unaware of that particular connection. Which simply wouldn't be the case if Varys had just used 'a ship' to get Tyrion away.

13 minutes ago, chrisdaw said:

There is no Shae charade Varys was setting up.

Of course there was. Not just the thing with Tywin, but also Tyrion's continued obsession with the whore, which Varys fueled and kept going by constantly helping him to arrange further meetings in ASoS. He was not forced to do this, he wanted to do it ... and he did it because Shae was the knife Varys would use to separate Tyrion from his family.

1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

First, Jaime is not suddenly a clumsy person. He is a guy whose entire life has been devoted to martial arts. Among other things it’s very common to fight with a weapon in each hand, often a sword and dagger, and shields are also used offensively. He is not going to suddenly lose his exceptional speed, strength, agility, balance, timing, etc. He is specifically clumsy…more specifically feels clumsy…at sword fighting because that’s been his dominant hand. And he is unable to do things that specifically require two hands/dominant hand like buttoning or writing. But he’s still an exceptional athlete. If he got the drop on Varys he could probably reliably subdue him.

Jaime is suddenly clumsy because he explicitly never used or trained his left hand to do anything of importance. Especially - but not only - in the fighting department. He tells us quite literally that he sucks with a sword when using his left hand - and we see him failing at other day-to-day tasks ... and also in a quarrel with his sister, where he is unable to stop Cersei from slapping him ... because his reflexes have him react with the non-existing right hand.

Something like that would inevitably also happen in a fight with Varys - a fight Jaime would also never expect to happen. He would be even more surprised than Kevan if Varys were to physically attack him. Varys would have gutted Jaime quicker than Cersei slapped him across the face - twice.

1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

I also agree that Jaime getting the drop on him would not have necessitated a lot of the follow through we see, and he could have at least escaped if not attacked Jaime as soon as they started climbing ladders or going into his secret network of tunnels. So while I don’t think we can know for certain how much he planned for Jaime to ‘force’ him, I think we can assume that at the very least once push came to shove he decided it was at least not contrary to his plans, if not beneficial. Certainly it’s another stress fracture in House Lannister. And I’m almost 100% sure he nudged Tyrion into killing his father. I even entertain the possibility that Tywin wasn’t even Shae’s lover, but that’s highly speculative.

I'm not saying Varys planned being forced ... rather that Varys also intended to free Tyrion and unleash him on Tywin, and Jaime just ended up wanting Varys to do the same, so everything went pretty smoothly.

Although a little bit too well, all things considered, as the double revelation of the Tysha and Shae betrayal pushed Tyrion too far over the edge, causing him to self-destructive and mean in Essos ... which caused another complication when Tyrion fed Aegon the invasion idea.

Shae was definitely Tywin's lover since nothing in the scene indicates that she is surprised to be in Tywin's bed ... and she explicitly brings up Tyrion's father without being forced to, indicating she knows perfectly well where she is and with whom she was earlier. Not to mention that she wears the Chain of the Hand and is not confused about that, either.

But she is there most likely only due to Varys helping Tywin to arrange that visit. Nobody else could have done this.

1 hour ago, James Arryn said:

Now one thing that’s always puzzled me is why civil war would be detrimental to Aegon’s invasion. It’s a pretty basic military maxim that attacking an engaged enemy is much more advantageous than attacking one with nothing else to occupy them. As the saying goes, if your enemy is making a mistake, don’t interrupt them. 

The civil war was only a problem back in AGoT when the Dothraki invasion wasn't ready.

6 hours ago, Takiedevushkikakzvezdy said:

Interestingly, GRRM said that this story was only from Varys' point of view and isn't necessarily the objective truth.

Nobody said anything about 'objective truth'. Just that Varys does tell the truth (as he sees it) when he speaks with that deeper, uncanny voice. It is his true personality coming out, him dropping all pretense, no longer playing a role (especially not that of the effeminate eunuch).

[Hazel-rah]

10 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

Nobody said anything about 'objective truth'. Just that Varys does tell the truth (as he sees it) when he speaks with that deeper, uncanny voice. It is his true personality coming out, him dropping all pretense, no longer playing a role (especially not that of the effeminate eunuch).

Disagree there. He's a mummer, isn't he? I don't think Varys ever shows his "true personality" to Tyrion. He plays Tyrion by remaining a riddle, constantly shifting and mutating to confound him. I think the way he regales his story to Tyrion, including the change in his register is done so to get a specific reaction from Tyrion, and to fit Tyrion's perception of him to his own designs. This wasn't Varys being completely earnest. 

[James Arryn]

30 minutes ago, Lord Varys said:

 

1) Jaime is suddenly clumsy because he explicitly never used or trained his left hand to do anything of importance. Especially - but not only - in the fighting department. He tells us quite literally that he sucks with a sword when using his left hand - and we see him failing at other day-to-day tasks ... and also in a quarrel with his sister, where he is unable to stop Cersei from slapping him ... because his reflexes have him react with the non-existing right hand.

2) Something like that would inevitably also happen in a fight with Varys - a fight Jaime would also never expect to happen. He would be even more surprised than Kevan if Varys were to physically attack him. Varys would have gutted Jaime quicker than Cersei slapped him across the face - twice.

3) I'm not saying Varys planned being forced ... rather that Varys also intended to free Tyrion and unleash him on Tywin, and Jaime just ended up wanting Varys to do the same, so everything went pretty smoothly.

Although a little bit too well, all things considered, as the double revelation of the Tysha and Shae betrayal pushed Tyrion too far over the edge, causing him to self-destructive and mean in Essos ... which caused another complication when Tyrion fed Aegon the invasion idea.

4) Shae was definitely Tywin's lover since nothing in the scene indicates that she is surprised to be in Tywin's bed ... and she explicitly brings up Tyrion's father without being forced to, indicating she knows perfectly well where she is and with whom she was earlier. Not to mention that she wears the Chain of the Hand and is not confused about that, either.

But she is there most likely only due to Varys helping Tywin to arrange that visit. Nobody else could have done this.

5) The civil war was only a problem back in AGoT when the Dothraki invasion wasn't ready.

 

1) You are confusing sucking using a sword with somehow being possibly the greatest fighter in Westeros while never training to use his left hand for anything. That’s…not how medieval combat works. At all. If you can’t skillfully use your left hand for anything, you would be hard pressed to be even a competent fighter. For example: We see a lot of plate armour in ASOIAF, and fighting against plate armour with a sword is like 75%+ two handed. And, again…daggers, shields, etc…that’s all left handed with a sword in the dominant hand, and he’d also be trained in using pole arms and other two-handed weaponry. We specifically see Jaime use his sword two-handed (not the way I was mentioning vs. plate) with incredible skill and speed despite being physically depleted and ~ handcuffed in his fight with Brienne, to the point where she is convinced he’d have beaten her if he was either in better condition or unrestrained. 

Moreover, you are overlooking that a huge part of being a great fighter is the ability to read your opponent’s body and anticipate his moves. Also an understanding of angles and distances so profound it becomes instinctual. And all the physical traits I mentioned earlier plus some, and courage, etc. 

2) He would almost certainly not be surprised in that situation for the same reason great boxers aren’t going to be surprised in a physical confrontation with someone else regardless of their estimation of their fighting ability, because to a great fighter your body is constantly sending out signals about what you are about to do. That doesn’t go away with your hand. Again, we are talking arguably the greatest fighter of his generation, this is LeBron or w/e, this is the top 0.0000000000005%. He is so much better at every aspect of fighting (that doesn’t involve his right hand) than Varys it’s hard to exaggerate. Now, ironically, if you forced him to fight Varys with a strictly swords-only fight and Varys is pretty good, that might be his best chance because Jamie is still at the stage of having to unlearn his instincts specific to one-handed swordplay. But throw them in a cage with no weapons or just daggers or w/e he’d make short work of the spider. 
 

3) We aren’t in disagreement here.

4) I’m not inclined to debate this point, partly because it’s a bit tangential, partly because I haven’t read that chapter in a while and don’t remember all the details, but mostly because I’m not remotely convinced of the point, it’s just something I consider possible. 
 

5) Yeah, but why would it have to be? Let them deplete themselves meantime…if that civil war wasn’t still raging when the Dothraki get in play, either create another one or let the post-civil war depletions and tensions work in your favour. Almost no one comes out of a serious civil war not considerably weaker than they were entering it, and civil wars have a way of creating potential alliances with the losers. Still, I take your point, and lord knows Varys is playing the longest game possible, but if he really is going to wait for everything to be perfectly aligned before taking his shot he’ll probably never take it, and I think he’s experienced enough to understand that. 

[Lord Varys]

1 hour ago, Hazel-rah said:

Disagree there. He's a mummer, isn't he? I don't think Varys ever shows his "true personality" to Tyrion. He plays Tyrion by remaining a riddle, constantly shifting and mutating to confound him. I think the way he regales his story to Tyrion, including the change in his register is done so to get a specific reaction from Tyrion, and to fit Tyrion's perception of him to his own designs. This wasn't Varys being completely earnest. 

He uses the story to manipulate Tyrion, yes, but the deep voice thing is basically a pretty standard way by the author to give the reader a clue that something if off, different than before. It is like when you have a suspect in a detective story lie suddenly and all his mannerism changes visibly.

In Varys' case we have the deep voice both in the case of the castration story and the Aegon story ... it is a consistent pattern.

29 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

1) You are confusing sucking using a sword with somehow being possibly the greatest fighter in Westeros while never training to use his left hand for anything. That’s…not how medieval combat works. At all. If you can’t skillfully use your left hand for anything, you would be hard pressed to be even a competent fighter. For example: We see a lot of plate armour in ASOIAF, and fighting against plate armour with a sword is like 75%+ two handed. And, again…daggers, shields, etc…that’s all left handed with a sword in the dominant hand, and he’d also be trained in using pole arms and other two-handed weaponry. We specifically see Jaime use his sword two-handed (not the way I was mentioning vs. plate) with incredible skill and speed despite being physically depleted and ~ handcuffed in his fight with Brienne, to the point where she is convinced he’d have beaten her if he was either in better condition or unrestrained. 

No need to make this overly complicated. Jaime himself tells us he cannot do much with his left hand. Repeatedly. And this doesn't really change - although he seems to be somewhat better late in AFfC than he was late in ASoS.

And we are not discussing Jaime-Varys in a proper duel or fight - we talk Varys deciding to attack Jaime in a scenario where the latter things he is merely intimidating Varys.

29 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

Moreover, you are overlooking that a huge part of being a great fighter is the ability to read your opponent’s body and anticipate his moves. Also an understanding of angles and distances so profound it becomes instinctual. And all the physical traits I mentioned earlier plus some, and courage, etc. 

See above. Jaime must know Cersei's body language inside and out - didn't help him when she was slapping his across the face, did it?

29 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

2) He would almost certainly not be surprised in that situation for the same reason great boxers aren’t going to be surprised in a physical confrontation with someone else regardless of their estimation of their fighting ability, because to a great fighter your body is constantly sending out signals about what you are about to do. That doesn’t go away with your hand. Again, we are talking arguably the greatest fighter of his generation, this is LeBron or w/e, this is the top 0.0000000000005%. He is so much better at every aspect of fighting (that doesn’t involve his right hand) than Varys it’s hard to exaggerate. Now, ironically, if you forced him to fight Varys with a strictly swords-only fight and Varys is pretty good, that might be his best chance because Jamie is still at the stage of having to unlearn his instincts specific to one-handed swordplay. But throw them in a cage with no weapons or just daggers or w/e he’d make short work of the spider.

We have no idea about Varys' instincts as a fighter - I expect him to be more experienced in brawls for your very life than Jaime, simply because Varys clawed his way out of slavery and the gutter up to the very top of the food chain ... while Jaime Lannister is basically just a very talented golden boy who never had to fight for his life before until he deliberately entered martial life as a squire/knight.

Jaime shows how clumsy and off he is - he no longer a good fighter. In a sense as much a eunuch as Varys. We know that from Jaime himself, from Addam Marbrand, and from Ilyn Payne's reaction. If Jaime was still a good or decent fighter he would not have to make himself a laughingstock with those silly training sessions. As a cripple he no longer has to enter the tourney grounds, ride in the lists, or any of that shit. But he feels he has to train because he must not only be able to project strength, he actually has to show that he is still capable when/if pushed. That's what he is preparing himself for. And so far he fails.

29 minutes ago, James Arryn said:

5) Yeah, but why would it have to be? Let them deplete themselves meantime…if that civil war wasn’t still raging when the Dothraki get in play, either create another one or let the post-civil war depletions and tensions work in your favour. Almost no one comes out of a serious civil war not considerably weaker than they were entering it, and civil wars have a way of creating potential alliances with the losers. Still, I take your point, and lord knows Varys is playing the longest game possible, but if he really is going to wait for everything to be perfectly aligned before taking his shot he’ll probably never take it, and I think he’s experienced enough to understand that. 

Historically, Westerosi wars are very short affairs. The Dance lasted a little more than two years, most of the others just a year. If the War of the Five Kings had been, well, less balanced, then it could have been over in six months with a very powerful and firmly established Baratheon pretender on the Iron Throne (unless it was Stannis, he would fuck things up).

Also, realistically the actual Dothraki invasion would have been two years away by the time Varys and Illyrio are talking. Drogo still had to be convinced - once that was done with the wine seller charade, they would have to prepare for the invasion, acquire ships, make plans where to land, get Dorne and other Westerosi allies aboard (which would go smoother that Varys/Illyrio would expect, since they have no clue about Viserys-Arianne marriage pact), include the Golden Company and possibly Aegon, etc.

All that would have much more chances of success if Westeros would explode around the time of that invasion and/or at a time when the Targaryen loyalists were already expecting an invasion and would keep themselves out of the civil war ... than at the time things started to down hill.

But in the end Varys and Illyrio greatly profited from the civil war(s), in part because Varys ensured that they did. My personal feeling is that Varys originally planned to use the revelation about the twincest and the true parentage of Cersei's children to undermine and undo the Baratheon dynasty at a time when the Targaryen pretender was already knocking at the door. That could have ensured that the war would be very brief, since in a scenario where Robert's children wer effectively out as a pretenders to the throne most lords would be more inclined to turn to a Targaryen pretender than work with Robert's younger brothers (especially not Stannis).

[Hazel-rah]

3 hours ago, Lord Varys said:

He uses the story to manipulate Tyrion, yes, but the deep voice thing is basically a pretty standard way by the author to give the reader a clue that something if off, different than before. It is like when you have a suspect in a detective story lie suddenly and all his mannerism changes visibly.

In Varys' case we have the deep voice both in the case of the castration story and the Aegon story ... it is a consistent pattern.

Yeah but i'm talking about subtext (assuming I'm more than capable of picking up on "pretty standard" writing devices). I think Varys is more complex and interesting than that. And to be fair, this isn't a detective story by any stretch.

I'd also like to add that I didn't say that Varys doesn't have a naturally deeper voice than he presents, I just think he was displaying it to Tyrion in that moment, deliberately. He has a deeper voice when he visits Ned in the Black Cells as well. 

[BlackLightning]

It's hard to say to be honest.

The text (unlike the TV show) suggests that Varys had already written off Tyrion. As one of the most capable Lannisters in the entire story, Tyrion would be a definite threat against Team Aegon. Tyrion is also not easy to control which makes it so that Varys would be well rid of him.

I don't think that Tyrion was going to be allowed to take the black and join the NW, @Equilibrium. That's something TV-Tywin would have done but I think Book-Tywin was honestly just done with the whole thing. After all, in his mind, Tyrion tried to turn the Dornish against the Iron Throne by throwing House Lannister under the bus so that one of the Martell princes would save his ass.. The truth would've came out (similar to how it did) and Dorne would've revolted. I think that he was going to be executed.

 

As @Lord Varys deftly pointed out, there was a bound for Pentos at harbor that was leaving that night. Whether or not Varys had planned it ahead of time or decided to commandeer that ship's captain and retrofit it into his plans at the last minute.

 

But I'm not sure if I think that Varys was surprised by Jaime.

 

[Equilibrium]

1 hour ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't think that Tyrion was going to be allowed to take the black and join the NW

Tywin explicitly stated he would and he didn't believe Tyrion would kill him for a second and spoke accordingly. He is more than prickly about family honor and Hand's dwarf son being executed for regicide was not a spectacle he would tolerate.  

[Lord Varys]

7 hours ago, Hazel-rah said:

Yeah but i'm talking about subtext (assuming I'm more than capable of picking up on "pretty standard" writing devices). I think Varys is more complex and interesting than that. And to be fair, this isn't a detective story by any stretch.

I'd also like to add that I didn't say that Varys doesn't have a naturally deeper voice than he presents, I just think he was displaying it to Tyrion in that moment, deliberately. He has a deeper voice when he visits Ned in the Black Cells as well. 

Does the description indicate Varys talks to Ned in the way he is talking to Tyrion and Kevan? I'm not sure, but you can certainly include that in the argument, since Varys does tell a lot of true things down in the dungeons, especially about the consequences of his actions and Cersei's future plans.

There is no conclusive proof there, but the obvious implication is that George uses 'deep voice Varys' as a means to convey that he is honest now, providing the POV and the reader with true information we would be less inclined to believe if it was tittering Varys.

26 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

It's hard to say to be honest.

The text (unlike the TV show) suggests that Varys had already written off Tyrion. As one of the most capable Lannisters in the entire story, Tyrion would be a definite threat against Team Aegon. Tyrion is also not easy to control which makes it so that Varys would be well rid of him.

If he wanted to be rid of him, then he could have just told the gang on the ship, Illyrio, or Connington to kill him. Easily done.

26 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

I don't think that Tyrion was going to be allowed to take the black and join the NW, @Equilibrium. That's something TV-Tywin would have done but I think Book-Tywin was honestly just done with the whole thing. After all, in his mind, Tyrion tried to turn the Dornish against the Iron Throne by throwing House Lannister under the bus so that one of the Martell princes would save his ass.. The truth would've came out (similar to how it did) and Dorne would've revolted. I think that he was going to be executed.

It is pretty clear that Tywin intended to execute him, yes, and I think Shae fucking Tywin in the night prior to the execution supports that idea. Tywin would only do something like that if it was part of his way to deal with his own Tyrion issues - which might revolve around his belief or knowledge that Tyrion was actually Aerys' bastard, which could imply Tywin kind of viewed Tyrion as an extension of the Mad King, meaning fucking Tyrion's former mistress may have been his way to get even with Aerys for fucking Joanna.

26 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

As @Lord Varys deftly pointed out, there was a bound for Pentos at harbor that was leaving that night. Whether or not Varys had planned it ahead of time or decided to commandeer that ship's captain and retrofit it into his plans at the last minute.

The really crucial thing here is that it must have been a ship Varys could really trust. Because the entire thing could unravel very quickly if the Iron Throne realized Tyrion was sent to Illyrio Mopatis. Hell, his magister colleagues would likely deliver the fat man to Cersei if that stopped the KL from declaring war on Pentos. They have no military to speak of. And Illyrio was very careful to ensure that no Pentoshi realized the dwarf was a guest in his mansion.

Illyrio later tells us the ship which brought Tyrion to him is bound for the Jade Sea and will return to the Narrow Sea only years later ... which kind of implies it was a normal trader and not some special ship Varys has in the harbor for some emergency. Joff's murder and the subsequent trial provided Varys with sufficient time to organize Tyrion's eventual escape. He would have done that long before Jaime made up his mind about saving the dwarf.

[Nevets]

I am inclined to believe Varys intended to spring Tyrion.  That there was a ship bound for Pentos that knew enough to hide Tyrion's arrival in Pentos, plus Illyrio waiting for him, suggests advance planning.  Whether Jaime really surprised him I don't know.  It doesn't really matter.  Varys already planned to do what Jaime wanted, and this way Jaime and Tyrion both think Varys was forced into it.  This could be useful in the future.

I doubt he expected Tyrion to visit, much less kill, Tywin though.  That was the result of Jaime's revelation about Tysha, which Varys had no way to know of.  That doesn't mean Varys wasn't planning to get rid of Tywin; he may well have been planning to do so.  But he had no reason to expect Tyrion to do so.

[Lord Varys]

8 minutes ago, Nevets said:

I doubt he expected Tyrion to visit, much less kill, Tywin though.  That was the result of Jaime's revelation about Tysha, which Varys had no way to know of.  That doesn't mean Varys wasn't planning to get rid of Tywin; he may well have been planning to do so.  But he had no reason to expect Tyrion to do so.

There was a burning brazier in the room Tyrion knew about, and Varys was way too forthcoming describing the route to Tywin's bedchamber.

If Jaime hadn't given Tyrion the Tysha reveal ... Varys himself would have told Tyrion stuff about Tywin while they were walking, subsequently pointing him towards Tywin in the brazier room.

But, of course - if Tyrion hadn't taken the bait, Varys would have put Tyrion on the ship to subsequently murder Tywin himself, blaming the whole thing on Tyrion. Like with Joffrey - it's not really necessary that Tyrion did the deed, just that people believe he did it.

On a personal level it is also important that Tyrion did it, of course, for his own character development and feelings. But the outward story would be more or less the same even if Tyrion hadn't done it, since he would have no way to actually prove that he didn't do it.

[BlackLightning]

On 6/30/2022 at 11:05 AM, Lord Varys said:

It is pretty clear that Tywin intended to execute him, yes, and I think Shae fucking Tywin in the night prior to the execution supports that idea. Tywin would only do something like that if it was part of his way to deal with his own Tyrion issues - which might revolve around his belief or knowledge that Tyrion was actually Aerys' bastard, which could imply Tywin kind of viewed Tyrion as an extension of the Mad King, meaning fucking Tyrion's former mistress may have been his way to get even with Aerys for fucking Joanna.

On 6/30/2022 at 11:03 AM, Equilibrium said:

Tywin explicitly stated he would and he didn't believe Tyrion would kill him for a second and spoke accordingly. He is more than prickly about family honor and Hand's dwarf son being executed for regicide was not a spectacle he would tolerate.  

I'm with @Lord Varys -- in the books, Tywin was pretty much done with Tyrion.

Look at it this way, Tyrion endangered the entire family and the peace that the Iron Throne had just won by "selfishly" throwing the family under the bus (by having a hostile Dornish prince fight for him in a trial by combat means to expose House Lannister's wrongdoings before, during and after the Sack) to save himself.

And unlike the TV show, the case against Tyrion was fairly strong.