Iron Shell part 4/4. The tolls of the House of Black and White

[Megorova]

In my opinion in every set of the Kingsguards there was at least one Faceless Man, and in the past 300 years they have killed nearly a hundred (or more) Targaryens and their dragonseed-relatives - adults, children, and even newborn babies.

All those deaths were disguised as accidents, results of diseases, death from natural causes (in case with infants), or even staged as an assassination by mistake (like in case with Aemon Targaryen, son of Jaehaerys I).   

There’s no such thing as dragonseed infertility

Aegon the Unworthy had fathered at least 23 children. Robert Baratheon had 18 children. Queen Alysanne and King Jaehaerys had 13 children. Queen Rhaella was pregnant 11 times. Princess Elaena had 7 children. 6 children had these Targaryens - Rhaenyra, Rhaena, Naerys. 5 children had these dragonseeds - Daenaera Velaryon, Borros Baratheon, Rogar Baratheon’s father, Dyanna Dayne (she was Princess Rhaena’s great-granddaughter), Betha Blackwood (she was Aegon the Unworthy’s granddaughter), Ned Stark and Catelyn Tully (both of them were Aegon the Unworthy’s 3-times-great-grandchildren).

Dragonseed infertility (or low fertility) is a myth. It’s a false belief that was crafted by the Faceless Men. They were poisoning pregnant Targaryen-women with something like moon tea, or other substances that caused miscarriages, premature childbirth, or stillbirths. And those children, that despite the Faceless Men’s interferences, managed to be born alive and healthy, were then either smothered in their cradles or poisoned.

By killing little Daenerys and disguising her death as a result of a disease, the Faceless Men set a precedent based on which all the other dragonseeds were made to believe that they are no different from all the other humans, and thus are not immune to common diseases. So whenever a Targaryen-woman had a miscarriage or a stillbirth, or died from what looked like a childbed fever, or a Targaryen-baby that was considered as being healthy suddenly died from unknown causes, no one ever suspected that there was involved a foul play (aside from Aerys II, who was not as mad as people thought him to be). And none of the Targaryens even had a reason to suspect the Kingsguards, those men that were near them all the time. The Kingsguards were allowed to be present during the birth of the royal babies. They guarded the King and his family thru day and night. They had access into the King’s and Queen’s chambers, into nurseries and wet-nurses’ quarters, into kitchens and food storages. And thus they had plenty of opportunities to add whatever they wanted into the food and drink that were consumed by their intended targets. That’s how they managed to kill scores of Targaryens and to get away with murder for the past three centuries.

Targaryen madness is a myth created by the Faceless Men

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“I am no maester to quote history at you, Your Grace. Swords have been my life, not books. But every child knows that the Targaryens have always danced too close to madness. Your father was not the first. King Jaehaerys once told me that madness and greatness are two sides of the same coin. Every time a new Targaryen is born, he said, the gods toss the coin in the air and the world holds its breath to see how it will land.” - ASOS, Dany VI.

That coin is an iron coin, and the ones tossing it are not Gods but the Sealords of Braavos.

I’m absolutely sure that the Faceless Men were systematically poisoning certain Targaryens with basilisk’s blood and other psychotropic substances. Amongst them probably were Maegor the Cruel, Aerion Brightflame, Aerys II, and that Prince Rhaegel who was dancing naked through the Red Keep.

Mass murders

There is a possibility that all those dragonseeds that died or became ill during the great epidemics at the 7K, such as the Winter Shivers of 59-60 AC and the Great Spring Sickness of 209-210 AC, actually were poisoned by the Faceless Men.

Amongst them were Daeron II and two of his grandsons; Ronnal Baratheon, Edwell Celtygar and his heir, Daemon Velaryon’s second son and three of his daughters. The Faceless Men also poisoned Rogar Baratheon and his son and daughter. Though they misjudged the dosage of poison and Rogar wasn’t affected at all, while even though his children got sick because of the poison, that dosage was not enough to kill them, and thus later they had recovered.

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“Serra. I found her in a Lysene pillow house and brought her home to warm my bed, but in the end I wed her. Me, whose first wife had been a cousin of the Prince of Pentos. The palace gates were closed to me thereafter, but I did not care. The price was small enough, for Serra.”

“How did she die?” Tyrion knew that she was dead; no man spoke so fondly of a woman who had abandoned him.

“A Braavosi trading galley called at Pentos on her way back from the Jade Sea. The Treasure carried cloves and saffron, jet and jade, scarlet samite, green silk … and the grey death. We slew her oarsmen as they came ashore and burned the ship at anchor, but the rats crept down the oars and paddled to the quay on cold stone feet. The plague took two thousand before it ran its course.” - ADWD, Tyrion II.

It seems that the Faceless Men caused the grey plague at Pentos - their intended target was Serra, and the other two thousand people that died then, were just a collateral damage.

So it’s likely that the other two epidemics, those that had occurred at the 7K, were also caused by the Faceless Men. Though, whether those epidemics were caused by someone or had occurred naturally, it’s a fact that they were exploited by the Faceless Men, particularly by Gyles Morrigen. In 59-60 AC several of Jaehaerys’ Kingsguards died, supposedly from the Shivers same as little Daenerys. And then by using those vacancies Ser Gyles inserted several more of the Faceless Men into the Kingsguard.

And now let’s go through their list.

White toll

List of those Kingsguards that were Faceless Men:

Aegon I: Humfrey the Mummer.

Maegor I: Owen Bush; maybe - Raymund Mallery and Symond Crayne.

Jaehaerys I: Gyles Morrigen, Robin Shaw, Ryam Redwyne; maybe - Clement Crabb, Joffrey Doggett, Pate the Woodcock, Willam the Wasp.

Viserys I: Ryam Redwyne; maybe - Criston Cole, Rickard Thorne, Steffon Darklyn.

Aegon II, Aegon III: either Marston Waters or Merwyn Flowers, one of them.

Daeron II: Donnel of Duskendale, Roland Crakehall.

Jaehaerys II, Aerys II: Gerold Hightower, Oswell Whent, Jonothor Darry.

Robert Baratheon, Joffrey, Tommen: Mandon Moore, Meryn Trant.

Also - Robert Redwyne (Commander of the City Watch), Willem Darry (master-at-arms of the Red Keep), Patchface, Syrio Forel (Jaqen H’ghar, Alchemist, Pate); maybe - Ilyn Payne (King’s Justice).

Black toll

List of those Targaryens and their relatives that were killed or harmed by the Faceless Men:

Aenys I.

Ceryse Hightower.

Maegor I.

Children of Jaehaerys I and Queen Alysanne, excluding maester Vaegon and Princess Saera.

Aegon - son of Alyssa and Baelon, grandson of Jaehaerys I.

Aegon II.

Jaehaera - daughter of Aegon II, first wife of Aegon III.

Baelor Breakspear (killed by Roland Crakehall and/or Donnel of Duskendale).

Daeron II.

Valarr.

Matarys.

Rhaegel (died from the same poison as Joffrey Baratheon).

Daeron the Drunken.

Maekar I.

SUMMERHALL.

Jaehaerys II (poisoned with Strangler).

Serra - daughter of Maelys Blackfyre, second wife of Illyrio Mopatis.

Steffon Baratheon (him and his people were killed by Patchface).

Aerys II (he was frequently poisoned with basilisk blood, so his madness was artificial).

Queen Rhaella (at the time of her pregnancies she was poisoned by the Faceless Men, with something that harmed her unborn children).

Rhaella’s children - Daeron, Aegon, Jaehaerys.

Arthur Dayne (killed by Gerold Hightower and Oswell Whent).

Maybe:

Vaella - daughter of Aenys I and Alyssa Velaryon.

Viserys I (if Criston Cole was a Faceless Man).

Aemma Arryn and her newborn son Baelon; also could be that the Faceless Men killed Aemma’s other son, and caused her numerous miscarriages.

Helaena - sister and wife of Aegon II.

Maelor - son of Aegon II (if Rickard Thorne was a Faceless Man, then there is a possibility that he was intending to kidnap Maelor and to bring him to Braavos, to hatch dragon eggs for the Sealord).

Baelor the Blessed.

Prince Valarr’s twin-sons.

Daemon II Blackfyre.

Aerion Brightflame.

Aelor.

Egg’s son Daeron.

Shireen Baratheon (could be that she was intentionally infected with grayscale by Patchface).

Next target is Tommen (because Cersei refused to pay what the Crown owned to the Iron Bank. His death will be somehow connected to Balerion the cat, and it will look like an accident - Tommen will fall out of the window - but actually he will be pushed out).

Iron Shell Part 4/4.

The End.

[Megorova]

New addition to the Black Toll - Joffrey Baratheon.

Could be that a Kingsguard Mandon Moore (or some other KG who also was an FM) was poisoning Joffrey with basilisk blood, which caused the boy to have bouts of unprovoked aggression, and to be excessively cruel.

~

Another "suspect" for the White List - Podrick Payne. That boy is suspicious as hell. Considering that he is related to Ilyn Payne, who is also a potential double agent, i.e. - a Faceless Man wearing someone else's face and identity, could be that Podrick was also recruited by the Sealord of Braavos.

~

People think that Ilyn Payne is mute, and can't read nor write, and thus they don't watch out what they say in his presense. And thus that's the reason why I think that it would have been very convenient for the Faceless Men, if they killed the real Ilyn (sometime already after King Aerys ripped out his tongue), and one of them took his face and replaced Ilyn at court.

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Ser Ilyn Payne made his way to Jaime’s side, looking like the beggar at the ball. His ringmail was old and rusted, worn over a stained jack of boiled leather. Neither the man nor his mount showed any heraldry; his shield was so hacked and battered it was hard to say what color paint might once have covered it. With his grim face and deep-sunk hollow eyes, Ser Ilyn might have passed for death himself . . . as he had, for years.

...

the silent headsman had belonged to their father, if he belonged to anyone.

...

Payne seemed as comfortable in his silence as in his rusted ringmail and boiled leather. The clop of his gelding’s hooves and the rattle of sword in scabbard whenever he shifted his seat were the only sounds he made. Though his pox-scarred face was grim and his eyes as cold as ice on a winter lake, Jaime sensed that he was glad he’d come. I gave the man a choice, he reminded himself. He could have refused me and remained King’s Justice.

...

The Justice was a headsman, but by tradition he also had charge of the dungeons and the men who kept them.

And for that task, Ser Ilyn Payne was singularly ill suited. As he could neither read, nor write, nor speak, Ser Ilyn had left the running of the dungeons to his underlings, such as they were.

...

the place where Ilyn Payne had lived for fifteen years.

The chambers stank of rotted food, and the rushes were crawling with vermin. As Jaime entered, he almost trod upon a rat. Payne’s greatsword rested on a trestle table, beside a whetstone and a greasy oilcloth. The steel was immaculate, the edge glimmering blue in the pale light, but elsewhere piles of soiled clothing were strewn about the floors, and the bits of mail and armor scattered here and there were red with rust. Jaime could not count the broken wine jars. The man cares for naught but killing

[Megorova]

@Mithras, I just thought that you could be interested in reading this theory, considering that you wrote a breakdown of Dunk's Trial in one of your earlier threads.

I have read that thread - https://asoiaf.westeros.org/index.php?/topic/114220-breakdown-of-dunks-trial-by-seven-was-maekar-a-kinslayer/

and I think that your breakdown was right until this point ->

"After The First Tilt

...

Ser Lyonel, Ser Robyn, Prince Baelor were standing unharmed in Team Dunk.

Ser Willem and Ser Donnel were standing unharmed in Team Aerion."

 

Starting from this point, this is what happened next ->

Donnel sneaked up on Willem and incapacitated him. So here (what you wrote):

"So, Team Dunk now suffered the numerical disadvantage. Two KG (Ser Roland and Ser Willem) descended on Ser Lyonel. Prince Baelor tried to defend Ser Lyonel and take out another KG. At the same time, Prince Maekar was trying to beat Prince Baelor with his mace and successfully landing him a lot of blows as the helm, shield and armor of Prince Baelor suggested in the end. I think the skull cracking blow came at this stage."

<- this part didn't happened.

In the first tilt Roland was unhorsed by Lyonel, and afterwards pretended that he is unconsciousness. So Maekar and Lyonel teamed up against Baelor, <- and this part was depicted in the books. Though Maekar didn't delivered to his brother that blow that killed Baelor. Instead it happened later, and the blow was delivered not by Maekar, and not during the trial, but already after it ended.

So next part (what you wrote):

"The End

One of the Kingsguard [ser Roland] knights was carrying a wounded brother [ser Willem] from the field. They both looked alike in their white armor and white cloaks. The third of the white knights [ser Donnel] was down, and the Laughing Storm had joined Prince Baelor against Prince Maekar.

 

“Has anyone died?”

 

“Beesbury,” Raymun said. “Slain by Donnel of Duskendale in the first charge. Ser Humfrey is gravely wounded as well. The rest of us are bruised and bloody, no more. Save for you.”

 

“And them? The accusers?”

 

“Ser Willem Wylde of the Kingsguard was carried from the field insensate, and I think I cracked a few of my cousin’s ribs. At least I hope so.”

"

<- Willem was carried off the field not by Roland Crakehall, but by Donnel of Duskendale (by whom he was sneakily attacked and taken out of the fight, despite both of them supposedly being on the same side (fighting for Aerion), but actually NOT).

That third Kingsguard who was down, was Roland, he was unhorsed by Lyonel Baratheon, and thus this ->

"The third of the white knights was down, and the Laughing Storm had joined Prince Baelor against Prince Maekar."

When the fighting ended, Baelor called a maester to attend to his brother. Then, while Lyonel Baratheon and the maester were staying with Maekar, Baelor went to check what's wrong with Roland Crakehall, who was still laying on the ground, where he fell after Lyonel unhorsed him. When Baelor approached Roland, turned out that the guy isn't wounded, he got up, he was Ok. So then the two of them together went towards Dunk's group, because Baelor also wanted to check how is Dunk. At certain point between leaving from the group, gathered around wounded Maekar, and departing towards the group, gathered around wounded Dunk, Baelor took off his helm. He was walking towards Dunk's group, together with Roland Crackehall, and that's when Roland took his sword (or some other weapon) and hit Baelor's bare head. When Baelor fell, Roland took the helm, that fell out of Baelor's hands, placed it back on Baelor's head, and then just left the field. And no one saw this happening, because everyone's attention was drawn to Dunk's group, and to what was happening amongst the lords that were sitting at the stands, and where Prince Aerion was. Also, after the rain there was white fog everywhere, so Roland, who was wearing a Kingsguard's all-white attire, in those conditions was nearly invisible from afar.

After Roland walked away, Baelor, despite his mortal head trauma and severe brain damage, managed to get up. And he sort of on autopilot continued doing what he was doing prior he was hit - he kept walking towards Dunk's group. And that's what GRRM showed to the readers - mortally wounded Baelor walking out of the fog, speaking with unnaturally sounding voice (because of his brain trauma), and Baelor being bothered by his helm (because he felt that something there is wrong (brain doesn't have pain sensors, so he wasn't in a lot of pain, and he didn't felt that piece of his skull actually got sliced off)), and being unable to take it off on his own, and his fingers becoming numb, and his movements uncoordinated, and his speach slurring and becoming incoherent, because his body was already shutting off/dying - he was "a dead man walking". And then Dunk's helpers took Baelor's helm off, and then piece of his skull, together with a part of his brain, fell off, after the helm was removed from his head, and stopped holding that piece together with the rest of the skull. And that's when Baelor died and fell. 

Baelor had received the head trauma that killed him, mere moments prior he got to Dunk's group. A minute or a couple of minutes prior to the scene of his death. Not all the way back during his confrontation with Maekar. Between the end of the fight (Baelor&Lyonel VS Maekar) and the scene of Baelor's death near Dunk's group, passed 10-20 minutes. So Baelor wouldn't have lived for that long, if he really received that trauma during his fight with Maekar. Furthermore, after the figting ended, Baelor was fine - he called a maester, he talked to Maekar and Lyonel, he made sure that Maekar is not seriously wounded, and only then he walked away from Maekar's group. If he was already mortally wounded thru all that, then someone would have noticed that something isn't right with him. With that kind of brain trauma, he wouldn't have been able to keep moving and talking like normally.

Furthermore, head wounds bleed a lot, A LOT. So if Baelor was wounded still during his fight with Maekar, then, by the time when a maester came to attend Maekar's wounds, Baelor would have been drowning in his own blood. It would have filled his helm, and would have been pouring out of its nooks and crevices. He would have been bleeding like a pig. Though, considering that the rivulets of blood weren't yet gashing out of his helm, when he approached Dunk's group, it means that the trauma had occurred moments prior he approached Dunk's group. And afterwards, there was no rivulets of blood, because Baelor died, and his heart stopped beating, so the blood also stopped flowing. Corpses don't bleed, at least not much.

Also, based on the nature of Baelor's trauma - his head being cleanly cut thru, with a piece of his skull being "sliced" off, it's obvious that, when he received that trauma, he wasn't wearing a helm. Otherwise piece of his helm also would have been sliced off, together with the piece of the skull that was under it. And then a section of his head would have just fallen off - the sliced off piece of helm, together with a piece of skull, and a piece of brain. But that's not what happened. And thus - he was not wearing a helm, when he was hit. And thus he was hit not during his fight with Maekar, thru all of which he was wearing a helm. So Maekar was not a kinslayer, and he really didn't remembered that deadly blow, delivered to his brother. Because how could he have remembered something that never happened? He's not the one who killed his brother. Instead Baelor died because in their entorage there were people that were double agents - hidden enemies of the Targaryens.

Donnel of Duskendale had attacked his fellow Kingsguard - Willem Wylde, and Roland Crackehall had attacked and killed Baelor Breakspear, because the two of them were Faceless Men.

There was at least one Faceless Man in every set of the Kingsguard, from the moment of its creation, with the very first FM-KG being Humfrey the Mummer.

P.S. And this is also a hint:

Quote

The prince moved his head slowly from side to side. “Ser Raymun… my helm, if you’d be so kind. Visor… visor’s cracked, and my fingers… fingers feel like wood.”

“At once, Your Grace.” Raymun took the prince’s helm in both hands and grunted. “Goodman Pate, a hand.”

Steely Pate dragged over a mounting stool. “It’s crushed down at the back, Your Grace, toward the left side. Smashed into the gorget. Good steel, this, to stop such a blow.”

“Brother’s mace, most like,” Baelor said thickly. “He’s strong.” He winced. “That… feels queer, I…”

“Here it comes.” Pate lifted the battered helm away. “Gods be good. Oh gods oh gods oh gods preserve…”

Baelor's helm was taken off by a man named Steely Pate. Thus he's the one who killed Baelor, by removing his helm, which was the only thing that held Baelor's skull together. And currently at the Citadel there's a fake Pate, who previously was Alchemist/Jaqen - a guy who in Prologue of AFFC killed the real Pate. So fPate at the Citadel, who is actually a Faceless Man, and a Steely Pate, who took off Baelor's helm <- this is a hint that Baelor also was killed by a Faceless Man (Roland Crackehall), same as the real Pate.

[Megorova]

New addition to the White Tall - in my opinion, there is a possibility that one of Dany's handmaids - Doreah, was a Faceless Man (Woman).

There is no such thing as "Targaryen madness", because what appeared to be mental disease, that affected dragonseeds, actually was caused by an intoxication with basilisk blood. Dany's brother - Viserys, was "mad", thus amongst his and Dany's entorage there was someone who was poisoning him with BB. And, in my opinion, Doreah is the most likely candidate. Because she's the one who stole Viserys' sword from Vaes Dothrak's armory, and placed it together with Viserys' other things, that he was supposed to wear for that evening. Doreah added BB into Viserys' wine and tricked him into taking a weapon to the feast.

Could be that in chapter Dany I of ACOK, "Doreah" really died. Or could be that she faked her death, because let's not forget that how she appeared to look, and what/who she really was under that skin, are two completely different things. She could have faked her death, despite Daenerys being with her until the very moment of her death, and even holding her hand thru all that. The Faceless Men are "magicians" and masters of illusions. People see what FM want them to see. So either the slow dying of Doreah was all an act and illusions, or by the end of it, she just took someone else, who was already dying and unable to speak, and placed Doreah's face-mask on that person. So "Doreah" whose hand Dany was hodling, while she was dying, wasn't the real Doreah. Whatever the case, afterwards the "real" Doreah left Dany's khalasar and went back to Braavos.

So, in my opinion, Doreah is the Waif. Because it was the Waif thru whom GRRM explained to the readers how basilisk blood affects people and animals, and she was also the one who showed to the readers how FM's skin-masks are applied. Also it was the Waif who gave to Arya a poisoned milk, that made Arya blind, after Arya admitted that she killed Dareon. Names Doreah and Dareon sound alike (by which I mean that GRRM possibly wanted to create here a connection - "Waif+poisons - Dareon - Doreah - Viserys+BB = Doreah was an FM"), and the Waif is a poison specialist, and someone was poisoning Viserys with basilisk blood, while Doreah was part of his and Dany's entorage. So based on all that could be that "Doreah" was one of personalities worn by the Faceless Man/Woman - the Waif.

[Equilibrium]

Good read. I am not bought on half the concepts, Kindly Man being current Sealord foremost of them. Much of the Braavos politics remain fuzzy for such reaches, and while Sealord, Iron Bank and Faceless Men probably have distinct agendas, some accommodation is probable. As for Targaryen madness it is overblown there aren't that many of them, plus Maegor came back wrong after magical healing and Aerys II had Varys, Viserys Jorah and Aerion Bloodraven to give them peculiar notions. 

Faceless Men keeping check on dragonriders is almost assured and Kingsguard idea is pretty spot on in my opinion. Also Targaryen immunity being real after all is a thing I wrote about years ago 

 

But the culprit was Bloodraven who was aiming to engineer the Prince That Was Promised. Alternative but well established theory is that the maesters did the Targaryen culling and dragon extinction so that magic would leave the world. Both were around before Fire and Blood which brought us another slew of Targaryen deaths by illness, so there is possibility that Martin simply scrapped the whole immunity is real reveal, which of course wouldn't mean all deaths from illness are genuine.