Iron Shell part 1/4. The hydra has three heads

[Megorova]

Several months ago I posted on this forum a series of sixteen interconnected threads that compiled my grand theory - “Swan Song” (links to which you can find in my signature and in the end of the Opening Post in SS 1/16). While researching materials for that theory, I had discovered an additional subplot, concealed by GRRM in the texts of ASOIAF and its companion books.

To unravel this subplot I used MP+PTSD-method (described in SS1), and the trail of metaphorical breadcrumbs led me from the Doom of Valyria, through the red door of the house in Braavos, and all the way into the heart of the House of Black and White. Those clues that I had found along the way, had not only showed to me in a different light those tragedies that had occurred in the past of the Targaryens, but also completely altered what we know about the history of their House.

So this is my theory about those discoveries at the core of which is the Grand Braavosi Conspiracy, and because the person who is currently standing at the centre of that conspiracy - the current Sealord of Braavos - in my opinion, is also one of Bellegere Otherys’ descendants, which makes him a pearl between two iron coins - with the Iron Bank on one side and the Faceless Men on the other - in dedication to him I titled this series of Braavos’-themed theories - “Iron Shell”.

Who founded Braavos and who rules it?

Quotes are from TWOIAF:

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Archmaester Matthar’s The Origins of the Iron Bank and Braavos provides one of the more detailed accounts of the bank’s history and dealings, so far as they can be discovered; the bank is famous for its discretion and its secrecy. Matthar recounts that the founders of the Iron Bank numbered three-and-twenty; sixteen men and seven women, each of whom possessed a key to bank’s great subterranean vaults. Their descendants, whose numbers now exceed one thousand, are known as keyholders to this day, though the keys they display proudly on formal occasions are now entirely ceremonial. Certain of the founding families of Braavos have declined over the centuries, and a few have lost their wealth entirely, yet even the meanest still cling to their keys and the honors that go with them.

No discussion of Braavos would be complete without a mention of the Faceless Men. Shrouded in mystery and rumor, this secretive society of assassins is said to be older than Braavos itself, with roots that go back to Valyria at the height of its glory. Little is known for certain about these killers, however.

The Iron Bank will have its due, it is said. Those who borrow from the Braavosi and fail to repay their debts oft have cause to rue such folly, for the Bank has been known to topple lords and princes and has also been rumored to send assassins against those it cannot remove (though this has never been conclusively proved).

The services of the Faceless Men are very expensive, though it is known that they took their toll not only in gold. If whoever hired them had no money to pay for their services, then -

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“One day, the first of us heard a slave praying not for his own death but for his master’s. So fervently did he desire this that he offered all he had, that his prayer might be answered. And it seemed to our first brother that this sacrifice would be pleasing to Him of Many Faces, so that night he granted the prayer. Then he went to the slave and said, ‘You offered all you had for this man’s death, but slaves have nothing but their lives. That is what the god desires of you. For the rest of your days on earth, you will serve him.’ And from that moment, we were two.” - ADWD, The Blind Girl.

It’s seems likely that all of the original keyholders of the Iron Bank eventually joined the Faceless Men Guild. Thus now the Iron Bank doesn’t have to pay for the services that they are provided on a regular basis by the Faceless Men, because they all are one and the same - like two sides of the same iron coin. Though some of the Iron Bank’s shareholders, those that are not the members of the Founding families/not keyholders, are also not the members of the Guild, instead they just bought their places on the Bank’s council. Also, not all of the current Faceless Men are from the Founding families, instead some of them had joined the Guild because of their personal circumstances, like the Waif.

The Faceless Men are using iron coins as their recognition signs, and the Founding families of Braavos are recognized by their iron keys.

Dragons and Pearls

The First Black Pearl of Braavos was the Sealord’s granddaughter. Bellegere’s grandfather being a Sealord also means that he was a keyholder/member of a Founding family, and so were all of his descendants up to this day.

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Many of the courtesans of Braavos are celebrated in song and story, and a few have even been immortalized in bronze or marble. In the Seven Kingdoms, the most storied and infamous of these are the Black Pearls. The first woman to bear that name was the captain and pirate queen Bellegere Otherys, who reigned briefly as one of the nine paramours of King Aegon IV Targaryen, and bore him a bastard daughter, Bellenora, the second Black Pearl, a famous courtesan acclaimed by the singers of her day as the most beautiful woman in all the world. Her descendants became courtesans as well, each in turn known as the Black Pearl, and each having in her veins some measure of the blood of the dragon to this very day. - TWOIAF.

The current Black Pearl, whose name is also Bellegere Otherys, is most likely the Seventh Black Pearl of Braavos and Aegon the Unworthy’s 4-times-great-granddaughter. According to her description from TWOW - Bellegere has light brown skin and black hair - there’s nothing Valyrian in her looks. So how does the author of that historical book know that she still has Targaryen genes left? It was written there not only that all Black Pearls were Aegon’s descendants, but also it was emphasized that “to this very day” they still have dragon-blood in their veins. How can they be sure of it?

They know, because Bellegere is a dragondreamer, like Daeron the Drunken and Daemon II Blackfyre, who were also Aegon’s descendants. There are genetic traits specific for some of the Targaryens in general, like the dragondreaming, because even before Aegon’s descendants there were Targaryens who were prophets, like Daenys the Dreamer. Though there are also some genetic traits that are characteristic specifically for Aegon IV’s descendants.

Dragons and Cats

Aegon’s maternal grandmother (Johanna Swann), his mother (Larra Rogare/Serenei of Lys), and one of his daughters (Shiera Seastar) were cat-skinchangers, same as Aegon’s 4-times-great-granddaughter - Arya Stark. So this genetic trait - skinchanging - is a trait characteristic specifically only for some of those Targaryens that were/are Aegon IV’s descendants, and not for Valyrians/dragonseeds in general.  

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Merry claimed the Black Pearl was the most famous courtesan of all. "She's descended from the dragons, that one," the woman had told Cat. "The first Black Pearl was a pirate queen. A Westerosi prince took her for a lover and got a daughter on her, who grew up to be a courtesan. Her own daughter followed her, and her daughter after her, until you get to this one.” ...

Cat told the kindly man about the Black Pearl too. "Her true name is Bellegere Otherys," she informed him. It was one of the three things that she had learned.

"It is," the priest said softly. "Her mother was Bellonara, but the first Black Pearl was a Bellegere as well." - AFFC, Cat of the Canals.

It was emphasized that the Black Pearl’s title was passed down from the first Bellegere to one of her daughters, so the other one and the son were occupied in some other spheres. Arya’s Kindly Man, who is the leader of the Faceless Men, and thus is also the current Sealord of Braavos - Ferrego Antaryon - is a cat-skinchanger, thus he is also one of Aegon’s descendants. Because he personally knew Bellonara - the previous Black Pearl - and he has a genetic trait specific for Aegon’s line.

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Children by the Black Pearl: Bellenora, Narha, Balerion. - TWOIAF, Aegon IV.

In my opinion Ferrego’s ancestor was Aegon’s son - Balerion Otherys. That is so because Ferrego is a cat-skinchanger, Otheryses are partially Summer Islanders (“The first Black Pearl was black as a pot of ink” - TWOW), and there’s a black cat named Balerion in the books. That cat belonged to Princess Rhaenys Targaryen, and she also was a cat-skinchanger, like Arya and Ferrego.

Cats and tests

Syrio Forel, who is one of Ferrego’s agents, sent Arya to catch cats. It was a test to see whether she had an affinity to cat-skinchanging, because if that was so, then she should have been able to catch Balerion.

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The Red Keep was full of cats: lazy old cats dozing in the sun, cold-eyed mousers twitching their tails, quick little kittens with claws like needles, ladies’ cats all combed and trusting, ragged shadows prowling the midden heaps. One by one Arya had chased them down and snatched them up and brought them proudly to Syrio Forel…all but this one, this one-eared black devil of a tomcat. “That’s the real king of this castle right there,” one of the gold cloaks had told her. “Older than sin and twice as mean. One time, the king was feasting the queen’s father, and that black bastard hopped up on the table and snatched a roast quail right out of Lord Tywin’s fingers.” - AGOT, Arya III.

That cat was little Rhaenys’ vessel and it is also one of Ferrego’s vessels. He’s using it to spy on specific people at the Red Keep, and maybe also to intercept other people’s correspondence.

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The king seemed happier than Kevan Lannister had seen him in a long time. From soup to sweet Tommen burbled about the exploits of his kittens, whilst feeding them morsels of pike off his own royal plate. “The bad cat was outside my window last night,” he informed Kevan at one point, “but Ser Pounce hissed at him and he ran off across the roofs.”

“The bad cat?” Ser Kevan said, amused. He is a sweet boy.

“An old black tomcat with a torn ear,” Cersei told him. “A filthy thing, and foul-tempered. He clawed Joff’s hand once.” She made a face. “The cats keep the rats down, I know, but that one … he’s been known to attack ravens in the rookery.” - ADWD, Epilogue.

Thru that cat Ferrego had also checked Sansa, whether she has an affinity to cat-skinchanging same as Arya, though she hadn’t.

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When something brushed against her leg, she almost jumped out of her skin, but it was only a cat, a ragged black tom with a chewed-off ear. The creature spit at her and leapt away. - ACOK, Sansa II.

Ferrego is so fond of cats, that even when he was choosing who will become the First Sword of Braavos, he did it though a cat-test.

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“On the day I am speaking of, the first sword was newly dead, and the Sealord sent for me. Many bravos had come to him, and as many had been sent away, none could say why. When I came into his presence, he was seated, and in his lap was a fat yellow cat. He told me that one of his captains had brought the beast to him, from an island beyond the sunrise. ‘Have you ever seen her like?’ he asked of me.

“And to him I said, ‘Each night in the alleys of Braavos I see a thousand like him,’ and the Sealord laughed, and that day I was named the first sword.”

Arya screwed up her face. “I don’t understand.”

Syrio clicked his teeth together. “The cat was an ordinary cat, no more. The others expected a fabulous beast, so that is what they saw. How large it was, they said. It was no larger than any other cat, only fat from indolence, for the Sealord fed it from his own table. What curious small ears, they said. Its ears had been chewed away in kitten fights. And it was plainly a tomcat, yet the Sealord said ‘her,’ and that is what the others saw.” - AGOT, Arya IV.

Who can become a Sealord?

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The Iron Bank is not ruled by the keyholders alone, however. Some of the wealthiest and most powerful families in Braavos today are of more recent vintage, yet the heads of these houses own shares in the bank, sit on its secret councils, and have a voice in selecting the men who lead it.

Neither prince nor king commands in Braavos, where the rule belongs to the Sealord, chosen by the city’s magisters and keyholders from amongst the citizenry by a process as convoluted as it is arcane.

Once chosen, Sealords serve for life.

Whoever becomes the Sealord of Braavos, gains an unlimited authority over the House of Black and White, and an unrestricted access to all the resources of the Iron Bank. Thus, amongst the citizens of Braavos, only those of them that are both - members of the Guild and members of the Founding families - are eligible to apply for the Sealord’s post. Something like this? -

	Who can apply for the post of the Sealord
Regular citizens of Braavos who are not FM and not a keyholders	no
An Iron Bank’s shareholder who doesn’t own an iron key	no
An Iron Bank’s shareholder who doesn’t own an iron key, but is an FM	no
FM who is not a native Braavosi	no
FM who is a native Braavosi, but not a keyholder	no
FM who was born at Braavos, and who is from the Founding family and thus has an iron key	yes
FM who is not a native Braavosi and was born elsewhere, though one of his parents is a keyholder, thus this person is also a keyholder	yes

If you have read “Swan Song” part 7 and 15, then you know that in my opinion the Bastard of Harrenhal, who was one of Aegon the Unworthy’s illegitimate children and the founder of House Whent, possibly had married (or was in a relationship) with one of Bellegere Otherys’ granddaughters. In case if when a person joins a keyholder’s family, he/she is also given a key, then the Bastard of Harrenhal and all of his descendants also were a keyholders (even if they hadn’t physically had those keys in their possession). Thus Arya Stark, who is that guy’s great-great-grandchild, is also a keyholder. And because she had also joined the FM’s Guild, theoretically she can apply for the post of the Sealord. Maybe that’s what GRRM’s intentions are concerning Arya - she will become the very first female Sealord of Braavos.

And there’s an additional reason why the current Sealord possibly intends for Arya to become his successor. Both of them are cat-skinchangers, and the Sealord had established wide cat-spy network all over Braavos and elsewhere (“The Red Keep was full of cats” - AGOT, “Braavos was full of cats” - ADWD). All those cats are “used vessels” and thus they are easily accessed. In case if the Sealord’s successor won’t be a cat-skinchanger like him, then his lifetime’s work - the CatNetwork - will become unusable after his death. It’s a great asset for the Faceless Men, so they wouldn’t want to lose it. Thus, either way - whether Arya will succeed the current Sealord, or whether it will be someone else, the Faceless Men can’t just let Arya leave. They need her.

The three-headed hydra of Braavos

The Sealord of Braavos is the three-headed hydra - the person that embodies all three branches of Braavos’ government: financial (Iron Bank), administrative and legislative office (the city’s official ruler), and military (Faceless Men and Bravo). What basis/evidence is there in the books, based on which I came to this conclusion? This is it (quotes are from TWOIAF and F&B):

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From his vast waterside palace, the Sealord commands a fleet of warships second to none and a mercantile fleet whose purple hulls and purple sails have become a common sight throughout the known world.

Mercantile means merchant, trading, commercial. So the Sealord commands both military and trading fleets of Braavos. Considering that Braavos’s area is mostly conspired from multiple little islands, it’s likely that they don’t have a vast infantry. So their army is mostly Naval, and those of them that are not seamen are either the Faceless Men or the Bravo, and neither wear armor. On the sea, during a naval battle or while boarding the enemy’s ship, the armor would have only hindered its wearer, adding an additional weight and restricting movement. Not to mention that in the case of falling overboard, it would have caused the wearer a swift drowning (Mandon Moore is a good example of that. Though the guy is such a faker - he’s an FM, so he will resurface somewhere later). Thus Braavosi don’t wear armor - not when they are on shore-leave, not when they go into battle.

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The swordsmanship of the bravos of the Secret City is as famed as the beauty of her courtesans. Largely unarmored, and wielding slender pointed blades far lighter than the longswords of the Seven Kingdoms, these warriors of the streets practice a swift, deadly style of fighting. The greatest bravos call themselves water dancers, given the custom of dueling upon the Moon Pool near the Sealord’s Palace; it is claimed that true water dancers can fight and kill upon the pool’s surface without disturbing the water itself.

Amongst Braavos’ population, a lot of men are bravos. They frequently fight/duel to practice their swordsmanship. They are Braavos’ military reserve, so they need to stay in good shape to be able to fight, in case if there will be a war.

Valar dohaeris - All men must serve, is not a Religion-Speak, it’s a Military-Speak. The Faceless Men are military, that’s why they rarely accept women or children into their ranks. Because if there will be a war, then all the Faceless Men will be required to join the fighting, and the battlefield is not a place for women or children.

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“Such sellswords as I might hire would flee before your knights. My fleets could sweep yours from the sea for a time, but my ships are made of wood, and wood burns. However, there is in this city a certain…guild, let us say…whose members are very skilled at their chosen profession. They could not destroy King’s Landing, nor fill its streets with corpses. But they could kill…a few. A well-chosen few.”

As the city’s Supreme Commander, the Sealord of Braavos has control over all of the Braavos’ armed forces. Thus he is also given an authority to dispatch the Faceless Men at his own discretion, without asking permission from anyone. The Faceless Men are the main enforcers of Braavos, so they are the police/national security, and the chief-officers of the Force-Bravo .

Even though the Sealord is the leader of the Faceless Men, it isn’t necessary for him to be a combatant. The Sealords serve for life, so even if originally they were fighters, in the later years of their service they won’t be able to keep fighting, thus that’s why they need the First Sword of Braavos to fight instead of them.

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Though many a deadly swordsman can be found amongst the bravos and water dancers, by tradition the greatest of them all is the First Sword, who commands the personal guard of the Sealord and protects his person at all public events. Once chosen, Sealords serve for life. Inevitably, there are always those who wish to cut that life short to effect some change in policy. Through the centuries, the First Swords have fought many famous duels, taken part in a dozen wars, and saved the lives of scores of Sealords, for good and ill.

Besides being the Supreme Commander of Braavos’ forces, the Sealord is also the city’s main Administrator - the Head of the legislative office and the Head of the Iron Bank. So for the Sealord to be someone smart and capable is more important than for him to be a fighter. Because, even though he can send the others to fight for him, he can’t use the others to also think instead of him. When he’s leading negotiations in the name of his city, he has to use his own wit. Like in this case:

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“So instead of stones, let me offer…gold.”

And with that the real bargaining began.

There are those even today who will insist that Septon Barth was made a fool of by the Sealord, that he was lied to, cheated, and humiliated. They point to the fact that he returned to King’s Landing without a single dragon’s egg. This is true.

What he did bring back was not of inconsiderable value, however. At the Sealord’s urging, the Iron Bank of Braavos forgave the entire remaining principal of its loan to the Iron Throne. At a stroke, the Crown’s debt had been cut in half. “And all at the cost of three stones,” Barth told the king.

The Sealord on his own authority had forfeited half of the Targaryens’ debts to the Iron Bank. In case if he hadn’t had a complete autocracy over the Iron Bank, and hadn’t had a right to independently operate with the Bank’s funds, then there could have been a possibility that even though the Sealord had made a deal with Barth, the Bank later could have refused to sanction/facilitate it. What would he have done then - sent an envoy to King Jaehaerys with “Sorry, I tried, but the Bank said no, so the deal is off”? Unlikely. Thus the Sealord of Braavos is also the sole ruler/Head of the Iron Bank, because at that time the decision concerning what to do with the dragons eggs, and how to deal with the subsequent threat of the Targaryens, was entirely his own.

I think that the information presented by me in this thread, is a sufficient enough evidence of the possibility that the Sealord of Braavos is a metaphorical three-headed hydra. Though, why is it important? What’s the difference whether he is or is not the sole ruler of Braavos, and whether he solely and personally commands both the Iron Bank and the Faceless Men? The thing is - if my theory is correct, then with all the information about Braavos, that GRRM has already provided in the previous books, we can recreate the whole Big Picture of what exactly is he planning to do on the Braavos’ part of the plot, because we already have all the necessary puzzle-pieces.

Meryn Trant, Syrio Forel, Jaqen H'ghar, Noho Dimittis, Mandon Moore, Tycho Nestoris, Patchface (and Balerion the cat) <- all of them are the agents of the Sealord, and all of them were sent by him to the 7K, to complete specific assignments. So what are those assignments? Try to figure it out on your own, because all the clues are already there.

Iron Shell Part 1/4. The End.

Iron Shell part 2/4. Chicks, eggs and chickens

Iron Shell part 3/4. How to get away with murder (Braavosi style)

Iron Shell part 4/4. The tolls of the House of Black and White