What did lyanna die from?

[corbon]

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In the annals of Westeros, 281 AC is known as the Year of the False Spring. Winter had held the land in its icy grip for close on two years, but now at last the snows were melting, the woods were greening, the days were growing longer. Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel of Oldtown who believed that winter's end was nigh.

The test that shows that winter ending is a process that many people can see, before the Maesters declare Spring is here.

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This is known: The tourney was first announced by Walter Whent, Lord of Harrenhal, late in the year 280 AC, not long after a visit from his younger brother, Ser Oswell Whent, a knight of the Kingsguard. That this would be an event of unrivaled magnificence was clear from the first, for Lord Whent was offering prizes thrice as large as those given at the great Lannisport tourney of 272 AC, hosted by Lord Tywin Lannister in celebration of Aerys II's tenth year upon the Iron Throne.

The tourney was announced in late 280. 
There must have been signs then that winter was starting to end. You can't hold such a magnificent tournament when winter has an icy grip on westeros. There must be some expectation that the winter will end, or at least much milder weather be around, to allow participants to come from far and wide. 

How easy would it be in late 280 to predict exactly how long it would take for Spring to arrive? When Westeros doesn't have a reliable seasonal system like ours. Reliably enough to schedule the tourney precisely within the two month 'window' that actually eventuated?

Its certainly possible. But this is why I point out that its down to luck - and more so the later the actual tourney date was.

Most of this comes down to GRRM not bothering with precision in these sorts of details. He's a storyteller, not a logistician. And such imprecision works for him very well 99% of the time.

Late ETA: And also I think some may come from GRRM's 'gardening' style - perhaps in his mind Elia in his mind wasn;t heavily pregnant when the Harrenhal story was formed, but later writing kind of forced her to be. So its possible she 'was' heavily pregnant at Harrenhal and not written that way, for real life changes reasons, for example. 

When you combine that with the reasonable (if not necessarily likely) alternative meaning of the 'with a vengeance' thing, A bit earlier than October becomes possible. But the earlier you stretch that, the less 'reasonable' the 'first mild then later vengeful' winter's return idea becomes - the closer those two are, the more reasonable the use of that language. Everyone's 'reasonable' point differs.

I think the other part of the dating that possibly pointed at June/July (or some earlier time than Oct/Nov) is trying to figure out Elia's timeline.
Rhaenys was born in 280, and Elia was 6 months in bed afterward. Then she gets pregnant again, and Aegon is born in late 281 or early 282.
So she must have been pregnant from around Feb-April 281.
There is no mention of her being pregnant at Harrenhal (which is especially surprising given Rhaegar's 'passing her over' for Lyanna - which would have been exponentially more 'bad' if she were heavily and visibly pregnant and surely mentioned upon.
Its also somewhat dubious given her frailty and recent history (6 months bedridden after Rhaenys' birth) that she would have travelled to Harrenhal for the tourney if she was heavily pregnant.

So how does her pregnancy and the timing of it fit with the Tourney timing?

An argument could be made for Aegon being born first, but that stretches things pretty far for 'late in 281' for his birth and you have to factor in her problems after his birth (the maesters declared she could no longer safely have children) and likelihood of some necessary recovery time (especially with her history etc) after his birth before she could travel to Harrenhal.
So it seems she was likely pregnant already at Harrenhal, which is supposedly late in 281.
So she is either heavily pregnant (dubious), or barely (maybe not at all) showing, and the later the tourney is the more heavily she is pregnant. Pushing the tourney back to around June/July, or even earlier,  would allow her to be 2-4 months pregnant and it not be noticeable nor as dangerous for her to travel. But you have to balance that with the other timeline things. Earlier starts to conflict to much. IMO. Later also conflicts too much, IMO.
Its all a balancing act of various factor to get the most reasonable estimates, and we don't know any of it.

The main problem is that the wording can be read nice and simply and that gives some people a clear and dogmatic timeline and they are happy to handwave away other issues. I prefer to try and incorporate everything, and balance the 'windows' for various events together as best as possible, without being dogmatic to much. Mostly, anyway.
 

[Mister Smikes]

4 minutes ago, corbon said:

The tourney was announced in late 280. 
There must have been signs then that winter was starting to end.

That's not logical at all.

4 minutes ago, corbon said:

You can't hold such a magnificent tournament when winter has an icy grip on westeros.

You can hold a tournament.  And if you want people to attend, you must announce it in advance, despite your inability to predict the weather.  Good weather makes it more magnificent.  Bad weather makes it less magnificent.  Such is life.

4 minutes ago, corbon said:

There must be some expectation that the winter will end, or at least much milder weather be around, to allow participants to come from far and wide. 

Whent could plausibly have expected that the worst of the winter would be over by that time.  Of he could have had other reasons.  In any event, the magnificent prizes would attract competitors, despite the weather.

4 minutes ago, corbon said:

Its certainly possible. But this is why I point out that its down to luck - and more so the later the actual tourney date was.

Since I suppose Whent cannot predict the weather, it suppose it was luck.  But that by itself does not militate against a date late in 281.

[corbon]

9 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Tourneys can and do occur during winter.  There is a reference in ASOS to a Winter Tourney at King's Landing during the reign of Aegon V.  And then there are the current events in the Alayne sample chapter  --   though the white ravens have already flown, and there is snow in King's Landing, Littlefinger is planning a Tourney in the Vale of Arryn, hundreds of miles to the North. 

 

Agreed. Especially for political reasons, which the Harrenhal tourney does appear likely to have been.

However, countering that point is that this tourney was both declared right from the start to be a 'super-tourney'  more magnificent than almost any other, and politically supposedly for Rhaegar to talk to the powerful from all around Westeros most likely about replacing his mad father - a sort of unofficial great council (a 'road not taken' that Rhaegar spoke of to Jaime).

Both of these things require a wide attendance from all around Westeros, something much less possible during full winter.

Also note that 
i) Littlefinger's tourney  is a small, 'local' affair, and
ii) KL (and points further south) often has milder 'winters'. There is no indication that the Winter Tourney of Barristan's youth was during a 'hard' winter, nor that there was a wide general attendance - all three known participants come from KL or further south. 

[corbon]

10 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

That's not logical at all.

You can hold a tournament.  And if you want people to attend, you must announce it in advance, despite your inability to predict the weather.  Good weather makes it more magnificent.  Bad weather makes it less magnificent.  Such is life.

Whent could plausibly have expected that the worst of the winter would be over by that time.  Of he could have had other reasons.  In any event, the magnificent prizes would attract competitors, despite the weather.

Since I suppose Whent cannot predict the weather, it suppose it was luck.  But that by itself does not militate against a date late in 281.

Great. Whatever. Whent declared the tourney while still in the grip of an icy winter with no signs of that abating and he was just lucky, super lucky, that spring turned up just for him, just when his tourney was on. And then went away again!

Awesome!

Or we could try to balance a bunch of things and actually think about how everything fits together. And come up with an explanation that works, even if its not necessarily exactly correct.
And in the end, this is just a minor secondary point. Trying to understand how some uses of language might not imply certain things that don't seem to work very well when combined with other things.

[Mister Smikes]

6 minutes ago, corbon said:

However, countering that point is that this tourney was both declared right from the start to be a 'super-tourney'  more magnificent than almost any other,

Whent had the power to promise magnificent prizes.  He had no power to promise magnificent weather.  Hence, that must have been luck.

6 minutes ago, corbon said:

and politically supposedly for Rhaegar to talk to the powerful from all around Westeros most likely about replacing his mad father - a sort of unofficial great council (a 'road not taken' that Rhaegar spoke of to Jaime).

Both of these things require a wide attendance from all around Westeros, something much less possible during full winter.

The magnificent prizes would help secure good attendance.  No doubt the "false spring", when it came, secured an even better attendance.  I don't know enough about Whent's political schemes to assume his schemes required the latter and not the former.  If politics dictated the timing, perhaps the seasons did not.   

6 minutes ago, corbon said:

Also note that 
i) Littlefinger's tourney  is a small, 'local' affair, and
ii) KL (and points further south) often has milder 'winters'. There is no indication that the Winter Tourney of Barristan's youth was during a 'hard' winter, nor that there was a wide general attendance - all three known participants come from KL or further south. 

I don't recall that the Winter of 280 had been a particularly hard winter either.    In any event, when Aegon V announced his Tourney, he was in the same boat as Whent.  He had to announce the Tourney in advance, giving folks a chance to attend, without knowing what the weather would be.

[Mister Smikes]

22 minutes ago, corbon said:

Great. Whatever. Whent declared the tourney while still in the grip of an icy winter with no signs of that abating and he was just lucky, super lucky, that spring turned up just for him, just when his tourney was on. And then went away again!

Yeah.  The good weather was luck as far as Whent was concerned.  What alternative do you propose?  Are you proposing that he magically predicted the false spring a year in advance?

I don't know that winters, on average, last much longer than 2 years.  So he could have plausibly have had cause to hope that Spring (false or not) would begin by the time the date of the tournament, or, failing that, that the worst of the Winter would be over.  The return of Winter, after the False Spring, may have been bad luck; but the good weather itself may have been reasonably likely from Whent's perspective.

But for all he knew, torrential spring rains could have turned his magnificent tournament into a miserable and muddy affair; and made him wish for snow instead.

[corbon]

2 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I don't recall that the Winter of 280 had been a particularly hard winter either.    

I underlined it in the quote a few posts back.

2 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Yeah.  The good weather was luck as far as Whent was concerned.  What alternative do you propose?  Are you proposing that he magically predicted the false spring a year in advance?

No. That the end of the false spring was not necessarily the vengeful return of winter - in other words, the two months of false spring may have been earlier in the year compared to the storm where winter returned with a vengeance.
In other words, he didn't 'predict' the return precisely, he used signs that it was coming, planned a tourney with a reasonable timeframe, and the tourney fell some time during a more variable timeframe than the simplest (but not 'only correct') reading of winter 'returning with a vengeance' indicates.

2 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I don't know that Winters, on average, last much longer than 2 years.  So he could have plausibly have had cause to hope that Spring would begin by the time the date of the tournament, or, failing that, that the worst of the Winter would be over.  The return of Winter, after the False Spring, may have been bad luck; but the good weather itself may have been reasonably likely from Whent's perspective.

Not reasonable.
Winters last a variable time. Several have lasted 5-6 years within the last couple of centuries. Tyrion was born during one that was 3 years long. And clearly lived through several that were 1 year or less long (he'd lived through 8-9 winters in 25 years or thereabouts from 273-298).
Its clearly too variable to simple decide that 'winter will turn' because a certain amount of time has passed.
And we are shown that it returning is a process, that there are signs that anyone can read and I previously quoted and underlined these signs.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

I underlined it in the quote a few posts back.

I merely read that as saying that Winter had lasted nearly 2 years, when the False Spring began.    Winter, personified as a Person, who holds the land in his grip.  And naturally, the grip of Winter is an Icy Grip.  It's poetry.   And no doubt literally true in the sense that many part of Westeros had sub-zero temperatures and ice.  

The phrase "icy grip of winter" is an old one, and in most contexts does not imply a particularly harsh winter.  I can cite you many examples from old literature.  It's funcion here, as far as I can tell, is merely to contrast a normal winter with the (false) signs of Spring.

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No. That the end of the false spring was not necessarily the vengeful return of winter - in other words, the two months of false spring may have been earlier in the year compared to the storm where winter returned with a vengeance.

Ok.  So we have the False Spring in (say) June and July, and then Winter returns in August, September, October and November, and then, finally in December, the "vengeance" part of "return with a vengeance" happens.   Does not sound to me like the most natural reading at all, but I cannot absolutely disprove it.  

I agree that the return of Winter need not coincide precisely with the beginning of the 2-week King's Landing snowstorm.  But two weeks of cold winds from the North and plummeting temperatures, would be more in the range of what I would consider a plausible transition.

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In other words, he didn't 'predict' the return precisely, he used signs that it was coming, planned a tourney with a reasonable timeframe, and the tourney fell some time during a more variable timeframe than the simplest (but not 'only correct') reading of winter 'returning with a vengeance' indicates.

So your hypothesis is that in late 280 Whent saw telltale signs that, 6 months later, winds from the south would generate a sort of freak event called a "False Spring" during the 2 months of June and July?  I can't rule it out absolutely.  But if he did, he must have had a magician on hand.

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Not reasonable.
Winters last a variable time. Several have lasted 5-6 years within the last couple of centuries. Tyrion was born during one that was 3 years long. And clearly lived through several that were 1 year or less long (he'd lived through 8-9 winters in 25 years or thereabouts from 273-298).
Its clearly too variable to simple decide that 'winter will turn' because a certain amount of time has passed.

Yes, Whent can reasonably hope for good weather, including (but not limited to) an early Spring.  But no, he cannot guarantee good weather (or an early Spring).  I have no idea why you are so fixated on Whent's need to infallibly predict good weather.   He cannot do that, but life (and politics) go on anyway.

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And we are shown that it returning is a process, that there are signs that anyone can read and I previously quoted and underlined these signs.

The false signs of Spring are not distinguishable from the False Spring itself.    I see no need for the False Signs to themselves have warning signs.

[corbon]

47 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I merely read that as saying that Winter had lasted nearly 2 years, when the False Spring began.   

You might read it that way. 
Others might acknowledge that 'winter' means very different things from the North to Dorne and that winter having an icy grip over the lands may be an indication that it was not one of the milder ones.

47 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Ok.  So we have the False Spring in (say) June and July, and then Winter returns in August, September, October and November, and then, finally in December, the "vengeance" part of "return with a vengeance" happens.   Does not sound to me like the most natural reading at all, but I cannot absolutely disprove it.  

I agree that the return of Winter need not coincide precisely with the beginning the 2-week King's Landing snowstorm.  But two weeks of cold winds from the North and plummeting temperatures, would be more in the range of what I would consider a plausible transition.

Agreed, more or less. The shorter the timespan between the 'end of false spring' and the 'nasty storm' that hit KL the more natural the reading.

There are other things to be factored in though. Such as Elia's appearance at Harrenhal and how that fits in with her health, pregnancy issues and timeline.

47 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

So your hypothesis is that in late 280 Whent saw telltale signs that, 6 months later, winds from the south would generate a sort of freak event called a "False Spring" during the 2 months of June and July?  I can't rule it out absolutely.  But if he did, he must have had a magician on hand.

Classic straw man argument.

47 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Yes, Whent can reasonably hope for good weather, including (but not limited to) an early Spring.  But no, he cannot guarantee good weather (or an early Spring).  I have no idea why you are so fixated on Whent's need to infallibly predict good weather.   He cannot do that, but life (and politics) go on anyway.

You are the one fixated on it. Why not just accept that, just as we are told, there are signs of the end of winter well before Spring is declared and those signs may have began as early as late 280, in time for his tourney announcement? 

I probably shouldn't have even mentioned that. Its not particularly important. I was just trying to recall the conversations from several years back for @StarksInTheNorth, as best I could, writing it as I went. That was what I recalled first because its the earliest part of the timeline. Its actually the Elia stuff I think that is more relevant to potentially pushing the tourney window earlier rather than later, but I didn't start recalling that part until I'd processed the late280-mid281 part again in my head.

47 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

The signs of Spring are not clearly distinguishable from the False Spring itself.    I see no need for the False Signs to themselves have warning signs.

They certainly are distinguishable. Its clearly shown in the text I've already quoted and underlined that the decline of winter is a process, heralded by signs, and that these signs are significantly different from the actual Spring climate that Ned recalls, and Meera's story indicate.

First:
 - the snows were melting
 - the woods were greening
 - the days were growing longer
Then:
 - the white ravens fly (indicating official start of spring)
 - warm winds blew from the south (maybe before the white ravens, maybe after, maybe both, can't tell. This is while people travel to Harrenhal, which in some cases may take weeks or even months. It may also be part of why the snows start to melt and the woods green etc.)
And then during actual (false) spring:
 - He could see the deep green of the grass, and
 - smell the pollen on the wind. 
 - Warm days and cool nights
(all from Ned's memory)
 - The little crannogman was walking across the field, enjoying the warm spring day
(Meera's story)

It is pretty clear that there is a big difference between "its still winter, but the signs for a season change are happening" (ie first section) and "isn't spring glorious" (last section) climates. Its also logical that there is a timely process through these things. Perhaps months. Maybe even years sometimes, given Westeros' strange seasons.
My guess is YMWV. I can't help that but I can explain for @StarksInTheNorth and other readers.

How long does the first section take before it moves to the second section? Who knows? Probably different each time. I think its a more reasonable case that some of the first section started in late 280, providing Whent with indications that spring was coming and if he declared a tourney 6-12 months along he'd probably have 'spring' (or near-spring) climate for it than the idea that with the land still in the icy grip pf winter he announced a magnificent westeros-wide tourney in the random hope that winter would end soon.

[Egged]

She fought at the Trident, was wounded, Rhaegar died, and she fled south back to the tower where the three kingsguards stayed to protect the child, where she died of her wounds.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, corbon said:

Classic straw man argument.

No.  Honest question.  I have no idea what you are proposing.

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Why not just accept that, just as we are told, there are signs of the end of winter well before Spring is declared and those signs may have began as early as late 280, in time for his tourney announcement? 

Why should I accept that?  The text does not say that, except in your unnecessarily-complicated interpretation.

Spring was not declared in 281.   The various signs of Spring that are described as occurring in 281 are exactly what became later known as "the False Spring".  There is no need for it to be any more complicated than that.

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They certainly are distinguishable. Its clearly shown in the text I've already quoted and underlined that the decline of winter is a process, heralded by signs, and that these signs are significantly different from the actual Spring climate that Ned recalls, and Meera's story indicate.

First:
 - the snows were melting
 - the woods were greening
 - the days were growing longer

All part of the False Spring.  And yes, any change in the weather is always a process.  When real Spring is described, it tends to be described the same.

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Then:
 - the white ravens fly (indicating official start of spring)

This never happened in 281.  Certainly not as far as we know.

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 - warm winds blew from the south

Part of the False Spring.  And no doubt, part of the explanation for it.

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(maybe before the white ravens, maybe after, maybe both, can't tell.

The white ravens did not fly in 281.

The text describing the "False Spring" describe it as the period during 281 when  many people, even at the Citadel, mistakenly believed that Winter was just about over, even though the White Ravens had not yet flown.

The white ravens did eventually fly, but it is probably not til 283 or thereabouts.

I see no need to postulate a scenario where the white ravens fly, only to later fly again to issue a retraction.  

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This is while people travel to Harrenhal, which in some cases may take weeks or even months.

Yes, the Tourney itself occurred during the False Spring.  Certainly it is plausible that there was good weather toward the end of certain journeys.   Obviously, any journey lasting months will encounter different weather in different places.

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And then during actual (false) spring:
 - He could see the deep green of the grass, and
 - smell the pollen on the wind. 
 - Warm days and cool nights
(all from Ned's memory) - The little crannogman was walking across the field, enjoying the warm spring day
(Meera's story)

Yes, all part of the False Spring.

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It is pretty clear that there is a big difference between "its still winter, but the signs for a season change are happening" (ie first section) and "isn't spring glorious" (last section) climates. Its also logical that there is a timely process through these things.

All change is gradual.  Every single day during the "two turns" of the False Spring are not going to be identical.  And yes, the snow will melt first, before people run in the green grass and smell the pollen.  Just like a real Spring.

You want to distinguish the false signs of Spring from the real false Spring.  But real false Spring is a contradiction in terms.  There was no real Spring, in 281.  People thought it was real, but that turned out to be an illusion, and it has gone down in history as false.

[corbon]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

No.  Honest question.  I have no idea what you are proposing.

Its a sufficiently incompetent reading of the things I have said that it makes a classic straw man. Replace what I have actually said with something dumb, leaving it open to mockery.

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Why should I accept that?  The text does not actually say that.

Spring was not declared in 281.   

Yes it was. And then later un-declared. Thus the false spring. Which lasted two turns during 281.

False Spring is when the Maester's declare 'Spring' (by sending the white ravens) then a short while (two turns in this case) later go "oops, sorry, not yet, still winter after all". 

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The signs of Spring that are listed in 281 are exactly what became later known as "the False Spring".

Nope.
These are not 'special' or 'unique' signifiers that are an unusual event "the false spring". These are regular end-of-winter signs that always happen during the transition from icy winter to spring. 

4 hours ago, corbon said:

In the annals of Westeros, 281 AC is known as the Year of the False Spring. Winter had held the land in its icy grip for close on two years, but now at last the snows were melting, the woods were greening, the days were growing longer. Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel of Oldtown who believed that winter's end was nigh.

These things always happen, every winter-spring transition (assuming the winter was icy enough to have near-permanent snow). They have to. They are not special or unique.

These things happened before the white ravens flew. Winter's end was nigh, meaning, it was near, but had not yet come. It was still winter. This is talking about the earlier part of 281, not the later part, during which the false spring falls. Winter had held the lands in its icy grip (ie before 281). Now (281) at last... signs of spring... 
Its the next paragraph which moves us forward to people travelling to the tourney.

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The white ravens did not fly in 281.

Spring was declared. The white ravens flew. If the white ravens hadn't flown then it wouldn't have been 'spring' and therefore couldn't have been 'false spring' later.

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The white ravens of the Citadel did not carry messages, as their dark cousins did. When they went forth from Oldtown, it was for one purpose only: to herald a change of seasons.

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"That is so, my lady. The white ravens fly only from the Citadel." Cressen's fingers went to the chain about his neck, each link forged from a different metal, each symbolizing his mastery of another branch of learning; the maester's collar, mark of his order. In the pride of his youth, he had worn it easily, but now it seemed heavy to him, the metal cold against his skin. "They are larger than other ravens, and more clever, bred to carry only the most important messages. This one came to tell us that the Conclave has met, considered the reports and measurements made by maesters all over the realm, and declared this great summer done at last. Ten years, two turns, and sixteen days it lasted, the longest summer in living memory."

The white ravens fly to carry the message that the seasons change. Not just summer to autumn, but winter to spring as well. Some time in 281 they flew, Spring was declared, and then two turns later spring was cancelled. During those two turns, the tourney happened.
Ned's recollection, Meera's story, wasn't late or mild winter, near-spring, it was spring. Only later it turned out to be false-spring. 

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Yes, the Tourney itself occurred during the False Spring.  Not sure about the journey.  Certainly it is plausible that there was good weather while people were arriving.  

I'd imagine there was not-winter weather before people left! As the text indicates there were signs of the season change before it was actually declared by the masters, probably, given the long seasons, and the way bureaucracies and convocations like the Maesters work, long before spring was declared.

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Yes, all part of the False Spring.

No, you've misunderstood the passages. These are before the false spring.

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All change is gradual.  Every single day during the "two turns" of the False Spring are not going to be identical.  And yes, the snow will melt first, before people run in the green grass and smell the pollen.

Yes. But this is continent-wide in a place where seasons can last multiple years (as in the quote above, the most recent summer was over 10 years long and by Jon's recollection followed a short, mild winter). Switching between icy grip of 'winter' and warm, pollen infested 'spring' days doesn't happen in just a few weeks. 

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You want to distinguish the false signs of Spring from the real false Spring.  But real false Spring is a contradiction in terms.  There was no real Spring, in 281.  People thought it was real, but that turned out to be an illusion, and it has gone down in history as false.

Yep, they did. But it was real enough at the time to actually be spring. The white ravens flew. It was spring. But that was a mistake. "False Spring' doesn't mean it never happened, it means it was a decent enough warm spell that people (and plants, and the maesters) thought was the end of winter, but actually wasn't the end of 'winter'*. However, it was long enough to melt the snows, green the woods, warm the climate, grow rich green grass (after two years of winter's icy grip including likely near-constant snow) and pollenate the air. "Short warm spell" here is on a scale of years-long seasons. Why, given winters and summers can last a decade or more, shouldn't the first signs of the end of winter take 6-12 months to develop into actual spring (regardless of it being a false start and winter returning)?

*or even maybe it was, but the summer was very very very short and so it makes more sense to westerosi, including the Maesters, to call it a 'false spring' and carry the 'winter' over. I don't know. I'm not sure even GRRM knows exactly how long or short the seasons could be in Westeros, just that its a variable thing and maybe he has a control mechanism, more likely he's just got a rough idea suitable for storytelling generalities.

[Mister Smikes]

44 minutes ago, corbon said:

Yes it was. And then later un-declared. Thus the false spring. Which lasted two turns during 281.

False Spring is when the Maester's declare 'Spring' (by sending the white ravens) then a short while (two turns in this case) later go "oops, sorry, not yet, still winter after all". 

This has zero textual support.  It is pure assumption.  

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These things happened before the white ravens flew.

Right.  The entire False Spring ("these things") occurred before the white ravens flew.   The False Spring preceded the Real Spring, which did not happen at all in 281; else it would not be called the "year of the FALSE spring".

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Winter's end was nigh, meaning, it was near, but had not yet come.

No.  Winter's end was NOT nigh.  That's not what the text says.  What the text says is that some people, even at the Citadel, believed that Winter's end was nigh.  And they were wrong.  Winter's end was not nigh.  And what seemed like Spring was in fact merely a spell of good weather.

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It was still winter.

Yes.  Sadly it was.

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This is talking about the earlier part of 281, not the later part, during which the false spring falls.

It also covers the False Spring.  Otherwise, it would be a Real Spring.

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Winter had held the lands in its icy grip (ie before 281). Now (281) at last... signs of spring... 

Dude.  You have already distinguished these "signs of spring" from the actual (false) Spring.  Winter was over, according to you, but it wasn't even False Spring yet?  How many different seasons exist in your mindset?  Twelve?

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Spring was declared.  The white ravens flew.

Yes, the great Corbon has declared it.  The text says nothing except "Though the white ravens had not yet flown, there were many even at the Citadel of Oldtown who believed that winter's end was nigh."  Which if anything says the opposite.  Why would the text say this, and not bother to state the more remarkable fact of the Citadel actually making a mistaken declaration of the end of Winter?  It would be like a history book mentioning that the Titanic came dangerously close to an iceberg, but not bothering to mention that actually struck it and sunk.

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The white ravens fly to carry the message that the seasons change. Not just summer to autumn, but winter to spring as well. Some time in 281 they flew, Spring was declared, and then two turns later spring was cancelled. During those two turns, the tourney happened.
Ned's recollection, Meera's story, wasn't late or mild winter, near-spring, it was spring. Only later it turned out to be false-spring. 

I guess you can't imagine how people could possibly enjoy some beautiful spring weather without permission from the Archmaesters at Oldtown?

You have declared the Spring to be a Real Spring.  Until it was declared false, at which point it became a False Spring.   How post-modern of you.  What is true depends upon what the Authorities say, I guess.

[corbon]

6 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

 

I am content that readers can read the arguments and see for themselves. 

[Mister Smikes]

Just now, corbon said:

I am content that readers can read the arguments and see for themselves. 

Good night, then.

[Frey family reunion]

My takeaway is that we know it was a false spring because no summer or autumn occurred between this apparent spring and the return of winter.  Since Westeros can’t depend on regular intervals for seasons, they have to guesstimate when the seasons are going to change.  It was winter’s sudden return where everyone realized that it was no true spring.

[Lilac & Gooseberries]

Lyanna was found feverish in her bed of blood. In the books bed of blood means childbirth.