Who's "they" ?

[Frey family reunion]

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

That prophecy came from the Wood Witch Jenny of Oldstones brought with her to Summerhall and it seems fairly clear that GoHH is that Wood Witch.

I agree with the latter that the GOHH is Jenny’s wood’s witch.  I disagree with the first part however.  The prince that was promised prophecy didn’t originate with the wood’s witch.  In fact it seems to predate her by a decent number of years.

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“It was a prince that was promised, not a princess. Rhaegar, I thought … the smoke was from the fire that devoured Summerhall on the day of his birth, the salt from the tears shed for those who died. He shared my belief when he was young, but later he became persuaded that it was his own son who fulfilled the prophecy, for a comet had been seen above King’s Landing on the night Aegon was conceived, and Rhaegar was certain the bleeding star had to be a comet. What fools we were, who thought ourselves so wise! The error crept in from the translation. Dragons are neither male nor female, Barth saw the truth of that, but now one and now the other, as changeable as flame. The language misled us all for a thousand years. Daenerys is the one, born amidst salt and smoke. The dragons prove it.”

If I had to guess the “fools” Aemon refers to are the Maesters, who had been trying to decipher the prophecy for at least a thousand years.

If you look at the history books, it appears that the origin of the prophecy may have coincided with a significant event in Valyrian history, the conquering and destruction of the Rhoyne civilization in Essos.

It very well may be that the prince that was promised prophecy wasn’t originally a Valyrian one, but a Rhoynish one.  After all, it’s usually an oppressed population that comes up with a tale of a future messiah and savior.  And it’s the Rhoynes not the Targaryens who’s principal sovereign was a Prince.

And it just so happens that we hear the Targaryens talk about the prince that was promised prophecy after the Targaryen marriage to the Dornes, The Rhoyne’s descendants in Westeros.

I don’t think the wood’s witch supplied the prophecy, she just narrowed down the list of eligible candidates for the prophecy, to the line of Aerys and Rhaella.  Which is kind of what Melisandre does.  She takes the prince that was promised prophecy (along with Azor Ahai) and narrows it down to Stannis.

But I dont’ know if Aemon fully believed the wood’s witch had to be correct, at the very least he allowed himself to harbor a doubt.

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“No,” the old man said. “It must be you. Tell them. The prophecy … my brother’s dream … Lady Melisandre has misread the signs. Stannis … Stannis has some of the dragon blood in him, yes. His brothers did as well. Rhaelle, Egg’s little girl, she was how they came by it … their father’s mother … she used to call me Uncle Maester when she was a little girl. I remembered that, so I allowed myself to hope … perhaps I wanted to … we all deceive ourselves, when we want to believe. Melisandre most of all, I think.”

And notably, Aemon never even mentions the wood’s witch to Sam, for Aemon the proof of Dany was in the dragons.

[Kingmonkey]

18 minutes ago, Frey family reunion said:

I agree with the latter that the GOHH is Jenny’s wood’s witch.  I disagree with the first part however.  The prince that was promised prophecy didn’t originate with the wood’s witch.  In fact it seems to predate her by a decent number of years.

 

There were presumably other earlier PTWP prophecies, but GoHH's prophecy is explicitly mentioned by Selmy in ADWD and also referred to in the world book.

 

ADWD ch. 23:

 

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Ser Barristan went on. "I saw your father and your mother wed as well. Forgive me, but there was no fondness there, and the realm paid dearly for that, my queen."

"Why did they wed if they did not love each other?"

"Your grandsire commanded it. A woods witch had told him that the prince was promised would be born of their line."

"A woods witch?" Dany was astonished.

 

"She came to court with Jenny of Oldstones. A stunted thing, grotesque to look upon. A dwarf, most people said, though dear to Lady Jenny, who always claimed that she was one of the children of the forest."

 

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Kingmonkey said:

Has he said that it's intentional or significant?

No sane person could read it otherwise.    "Yes" does not mean "No"; and "that would be telling" does not mean "It's just a mistake, nothing to see here, move along."

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In the first draft of GoT when it was going to be a trilogy, Dany was raised in Tyrosh, not Braavos. The mention of her having a Tyroshi accent seems to be a leftover from this. Is it not also possible that the lemon tree incident is also a leftover from this?

That was a foolish argument even when it was first made.  It is an insane argument now.  GRRM has confirmed (except to the most insane of denialists) that the discrepancy is not a mistake and points to something.

Early in the creative process he changed the name of Dany's city.  Much much later, he deliberately begins dropping obviously intentional clues and information about the climate and location of Dany's city.  What the city is called is completely irrelevant to this process.  Had he kept the name "Tyrosh" he could have dropped the same clues about it, and placed it in exactly the same place on the map.  

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In the message you quote above, GRRM leaves blank what it points to -- the words omitted by the ellipsis might be 'her memories of her childhood actually being from somewhere other than Braavos',

That's one possibility to be sure.  And there may be others we have not considered.

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but equally they might be 'her being raised in the grounds of the Sealord's palace'

Nope.  That has nothing to do with GRRM's words.  The word "it" refers back to the fan's question about a "discrepancy", which was about the cold foggy climate.  The Sealord's palace is situated in exactly the same cold, foggy climate.

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or even 'an earlier draft when she was raised in Tyrosh and I forgot to change the details' for all that is indicated there. 

That interpretation assumes that "Yes, it points to ... well, that would be telling" really means "No, it points to ... well, nothing significant".   Words have meaning you know. 

[Kingmonkey]

2 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

That interpretation assumes that "Yes, it points to ... well, that would be telling" really means "No, it points to ... well, nothing signficant".  Which really sounds like you are calling GRRM a liar.  Words have meaning you know.

 

Words have meaning, and GRRM explicitly chose to leave out the words that indicated what it pointed to. Clearly you have read something into his omission and concluded that's what he actually said. You have also chosen to declare that GRRM would not consider the notion of a change in Daeny's backstory during the writing process significant without any reason to think he'd share your opinion, and it "really sounds like you're calling GRRM a liar" when you chose to ignore the fact that he wrote "Trees did not grow on Braavos, save in the courts and gardens of the mighty" when you dismiss the possibility of the Sealord's palace because of the cold and foggy environment. No sane person blah blah blah.

 

So yeah have you have fun with your thing, but I think I'm going to opt out of debating with someone who can't formulate an argument without being both blinkered and frankly very rude.

 

[Mister Smikes]

2 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

Words have meaning, and GRRM explicitly chose to leave out the words that indicated what it pointed to. Clearly you have read something into his omission and concluded that's what he actually said.

No.  I have merely given the words "yes" and "that would be telling" their natural interpretation.  It points to something, not nothing.  And the something it points to is spoilerish, because otherwise "that would be telling" would make no sense.

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... you chose to ignore the fact that he wrote "Trees did not grow on Braavos, save in the courts and gardens of the mighty" ....

GRRM was not asked about this, and did not comment on it.  Most trees are not lemon trees.  Trees DO grow in cold foggy climates.  Lemon trees (generally) do not.

You're mad because you wish GRRM had been asked an entirely different question and had given a different answer.  So you're trying to rewrite what was actually said.  The discrepancy under discussion has NOTHING to do with trees (for example, pine trees) not growing in Braavos (except in the courtyards of the mighty).   It was about LEMON TREES not growing in Braavos due to CLIMATE.

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when you dismiss the possibility of the Sealord's palace because of the cold and foggy environment.

Whether the lemon tree is in the Sealord's palace or not, the discrepancy referenced by GRRM cannot point to it.  You want to change the subject and talk about a different (supposed) discrepancy than the one actually referenced by GRRM.

Maybe if the Sealord's palace had a magical glowing dragon whose light could grow lemon trees, the discrepancy could point to THAT.

[LadySage]

Cool thread. Nothing to add at the moment, but rad to hear from @Kingmonkey 

[Frey family reunion]

14 hours ago, Kingmonkey said:

 

There were presumably other earlier PTWP prophecies, but GoHH's prophecy is explicitly mentioned by Selmy in ADWD and also referred to in the world book.

 

ADWD ch. 23:

 

 

I think there is only one PTWP prophecy.  It’s not GoHH’s prophecy.  It’s a prophecy at least a thousand years old.  It’s also a prophecy that seems to take a number of the same elements from an even older prophecy (the Azhor Ahai reborn) and reuse them.  The Wood’s Witch,  like Melisandre, is merely taking a prophecy already existing and provided an answer to it’s fulfillment.  

 Now whether the Targaryens learned of the prophecy from her, or already knew of the prophecy is an interesting question.  Based on Aemon’s conversation with Sam, my takeaway is that they learned of the prophecy independent of the wood’s witch.

It may very well be that the Targaryens taught the Wood’s Witch the prophecy, and her visions led her to a partial answer to the fulfillment of it.  It wouldn’t surprise me that once they learned of her talents, they used her (in a similar manner to how the Brotherhood without Banners used her) to pump her for answers.

[Kingmonkey]

7 hours ago, Frey family reunion said:

I think there is only one PTWP prophecy.  It’s not GoHH’s prophecy.  It’s a prophecy at least a thousand years old.  It’s also a prophecy that seems to take a number of the same elements from an even older prophecy (the Azhor Ahai reborn) and reuse them.  The Wood’s Witch,  like Melisandre, is merely taking a prophecy already existing and provided an answer to it’s fulfillment.  

 Now whether the Targaryens learned of the prophecy from her, or already knew of the prophecy is an interesting question.  Based on Aemon’s conversation with Sam, my takeaway is that they learned of the prophecy independent of the wood’s witch.

It may very well be that the Targaryens taught the Wood’s Witch the prophecy, and her visions led her to a partial answer to the fulfillment of it.  It wouldn’t surprise me that once they learned of her talents, they used her (in a similar manner to how the Brotherhood without Banners used her) to pump her for answers.

 

There are clearly a whole lot of prophecies that people who are interested in such things have studied and perhaps sometimes conflated (Azor Ahai / PTWP) whether or not they are supposed to refer to the same thing. GoHH's prophecy was not the origin of the idea of PTWP, but rather specifically that the PTWP would be born from a particular blood line. We are told that Jaehaerys arranged the marrage of Aerys and Rhaella specifically because of GoHH's prophecy. 

 

When Rhaegar became interested in the prophecies of PTWP and the possibility it applied to himself he, as countless others had done, studied older prophecies in books. However I don't think it's a great stretch to consider the possibility that as part of his studies he would have sought out the living prophet of the PTWP who's prophecy was the very reason he'd been born.

[Walda]

On 10/6/2021 at 9:56 AM, Mister Smikes said:

Trees DO grow in cold foggy climates.  Lemon trees (generally) do not.

Microclimate is everything. The cold is the enemy, they don't do so well under 45°F/7°C.

They like dry, sunny weather, but the fog of Braavos is a good thing - it indicates Braavos gets a steady current of warm air over the cold sea. A warm air current over a cold sea is why London has such a mild climate, compared to Hudson Bay in Canada and Malinovoye Ozero in Siberia, that are on the same lattitude as London.

The fog also indicates a cold sea current, heading north to south down the Narrow Sea. That would imply that White Harbor enjoys a (relatively) warm south to north water current. That might explain why the firth of the White Knife has never iced up in living memory.

Braavos is unlikely to get frosts, thanks to that warm air current and being a city of islands and canals, on a lagoon sheltered behind that ridge of pine-clad headlands. The warm air current, humidity, salt water, evening offshore/afternoon onshore breezes all work against freezing temperatures at ground level, which are necessary for frosts to set.

There would probably be freezing fogs and hailstorms in Braavos, although the headlands might endure the worst of these rather than the harbors. Still, a person who wanted a lemon would need it to be sheltered, by at least a sun-warmed wall and well-manured soil.

Lemon trees don't like salt winds any more than they like cold or wet, so if Dany's lemon tree was in Braavos, it would need to be planted in a sheltered place with a southern slope, fairly high above the water.

I think, a sunny courtyard on the lee side of the Red God's house, with water fed in from the sweetwater viaduct, sheltered by the brick wall of Dany's bedroom, kept warm by the eternal fire of their 40 foot brazier all night, as well as the wall on the west side of the courtyard, that soaked up whatever sunlight there was all day, would do the trick nicely.

The lemon tree would need to be established during a summer. Dany was born during a summer storm, but there must have been a winter when she was about three or four years old, because the summer was almost or just over ten years old when she turned fourteen. 

The only hint of the season when she lived at the house with the red door is the smell of Ser Willem's sickness "a hot, moist, sickly sweet odour"(AGoT Ch 3  Daenerys I) that clung to him day and night.  It sounds like summer, but it might simply be that the sick room was kept hot or that Ser Willem was always feverish and sweaty.

If there were lemons on the lemon tree it would need to be about five years or older when Dany saw it. If it was a young tree, planted in the spring just before her birth, or the summer of it, it would be too young to fruit. 

If it was a productive tree it would have to have be established by 280AC, or the winter of the false spring would kill it.

Tyrion, who was born in 273, recalls eight or nine short winters, from the three year winter he was born in the middle of, to the only winter Dany would remember. Which makes it seem like every year before 280 AC had a few months of winter, even if he counts the winter with the false spring as two separate winters.

A Braavosi lemon tree would need at least seven or eight months growth before one of those short, mild winters. That, or grown in a pot and brought inside in the winter.

But these tricks are quite doable. You would not expect commercial cultivation of lemons in Braavos, because it would be inconvenient and expensive compared to getting them from Dorne or Lys.

But I would expect the Sealord or some wealthy people keep glass gardens or orangeries for their own convenience/tables.

 Orangeries were used by wealthy people in 18th century Paris and Britian to grow citus trees. The fourth Earl of Dunmore was growing pineapples in a pineapple-shaped stone building with lots of glass windows on the ground floor, and a furnace to heat air ducts that circulated through the building, in 1761. And pineapples like the cold even less than lemon trees.

We know the Sealord has a menagerie of all kinds of strange beasts, including "terrible walking lizards with scythes for claws". Whether the lizards were Perenties, Kimodo Dragons, Asian Water Monitors, or Crocodile Monitors, a big reptile needs a hot climate in order to survive. We know the Sealord kept a cat-fattening table, too. I think he might have needed hot houses to grow food for his herbivores as well as to keep his lizards alive.

But we are talking of a single lemon tree here, not an orchard. If the variety and the spot it is grown on are carefully selected,  its roots well mulched and drained, its early life timed to avoid prolonged cold, a lemon tree in Braavos is not a miricle.

 

[Frey family reunion]

On 10/6/2021 at 4:30 PM, Kingmonkey said:

When Rhaegar became interested in the prophecies of PTWP and the possibility it applied to himself he, as countless others had done, studied older prophecies in books. However I don't think it's a great stretch to consider the possibility that as part of his studies he would have sought out the living prophet of the PTWP who's prophecy was the very reason he'd been born.

It's surely possible.  We just don't have anything to back it up yet, other than the possibility that Rhaegar may have trapsed around the Riverlands before he fell upon Lyanna.  

Regardless, I don't see Rhaegar dragging the Wood's Witch down to Dorne with him, nor do I see that the Wood's Witch would have any particular motivation to go, unless Rhaegar really was running around kidnapping women.

[Daeron the Daring]

13 minutes ago, Walda said:

A lemon tree in Braavos is not a miracle.

Not only that, but we have to take into account how there are lizard lions (some type of crocodilian reptiles) in the Neck, as far up North as Moat Cailin. On top of that, we have to look when was Braavos' exact location revealed. That happened in ASOS. Until that point, we couldn't say where Braavos actually is. That a single lemontree can't grow on Braavos is not true. Nor could giant reptiles live in the Neck, yet they do. Thousands of them, whereas we only need a single lemontree. 

[Walda]

58 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

some type of crocodilian reptiles

I assumed they were some kind of Alligatoridae because they would be a little better at coping with cold than crocs, and because they are found in fresh or at worst brackish water.

But they are not going to handle a long, cold winter. I wonder how they managed in 281, and 273. And where did they go in the Long Noght 10,000 years ago? Was there some children of the forest creating warm caves for them or something?

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

Lemongate is pretty absurd. Lemon trees cannot be mass produced in foggy climates but singular lemon trees for purposes such as the Sealord's garden. 

2 minutes ago, Walda said:

I assumed they were some kind of Alligatoridae because they would be a little better at coping with cold than crocs, and because they are found in fresh or at worst brackish water.

But they are not going to handle a long, cold winter. I wonder how they managed in 281, and 273. And where did they go in the Long Noght 10,000 years ago? Was there some children of the forest creating warm caves for them or something?

To me, Lizard Lions evoke primitive tetrapods/reptiliomorphs like Dimetrodon to me. Especially in marshy climates like the Neck. I feel like Alligators would not look lions to the smallfolk in the Neck.

[Daeron the Daring]

52 minutes ago, Walda said:

I assumed they were some kind of Alligatoridae because they would be a little better at coping with cold than crocs, and because they are found in fresh or at worst brackish water.

But they are not going to handle a long, cold winter. I wonder how they managed in 281, and 273. And where did they go in the Long Noght 10,000 years ago? Was there some children of the forest creating warm caves for them or something?

Well, it depends what we may see the animal on house Reed's heraldry. Crocodils are a thing in ASOIAF, lizard-lions are something similar. 

49 minutes ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

To me, Lizard Lions evoke primitive tetrapods/reptiliomorphs like Dimetrodon to me. Especially in marshy climates like the Neck. I feel like Alligators would not look lions to the smallfolk in the Neck.

These animals aren't supposed to resemble actual lions. Neither they do. 

[Loose Bolt]

Oaks seem to be able to grow even beyond the wall so that Haunted Forest seems to have similar climate than southern Finland and Braavos seems to exist hundreds of miles SE of the Wall. So Braavos might be south enough that lemon trees have a chance to grow in there.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers said:

Lemongate is pretty absurd.

You say "pretty absurd", but GRRM says "very perceptive", "yes" and "that would be telling".

[Mister Smikes]

4 hours ago, Walda said:

They like dry, sunny weather, but the fog of Braavos is a good thing - it indicates Braavos gets a steady current of warm air over the cold sea.   [...]   Braavos is unlikely to get frosts, thanks to that warm air current and being a city of islands and canals, on a lagoon sheltered behind that ridge of pine-clad headlands.

You seem to be arguing against the author.  He has said "yes" to "cold foggy climate", and identified freezing rain as one of its 3 most common types of weather . And you are arguing that the climate can't really be cold because it is foggy.   But if I can, in a work of fantasy, accept flying giant firebreathing lizards, I can certainly accept a cold foggy climate

It is up to GRRM to say where lemons grow in his world, and he has left numerous clues that they do not (normally) grow much north of Dorne.  

4 hours ago, Walda said:

Still, a person who wanted a lemon would need it to be sheltered, by at least a sun-warmed wall and well-manured soil.

Lemon trees don't like salt winds any more than they like cold or wet, so if Dany's lemon tree was in Braavos, it would need to be planted in a sheltered place with a southern slope, fairly high above the water.

I think, a sunny courtyard on the lee side of the Red God's house, with water fed in from the sweetwater viaduct, sheltered by the brick wall of Dany's bedroom, kept warm by the eternal fire of their 40 foot brazier all night, as well as the wall on the west side of the courtyard, that soaked up whatever sunlight there was all day, would do the trick nicely.

Where would one find a sunny courtyard in Braavos?  It is called the hidden city because of its near-constant fog and cloud cover.  Only a rare day has sunlight, and even then, it seems to be just the morning sun that peeks in under the cloud cover.   And you want to shield it from the only sun it is likely to get by hiding it behind a wall. 

But who knows?  Maybe the Red God's house has magical sunlamps, and this is the spoilerish something that GRRM says the discrepancy points to.

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If it was a productive tree it would have to have be established by 280AC, or the winter of the false spring would kill it.

Personally, I can't see it being that memorable without lemons.  But maybe folks will say that's subjective.  The lemonhate is strong, and folks will seize on anything.

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But I would expect the Sealord or some wealthy people keep glass gardens or orangeries for their own convenience/tables.

Magical sunlamps too, I suppose.

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 Orangeries were used by wealthy people in 18th century Paris and Britian to grow citus trees. 

Well, that's not exactly medieval, now is it?  And both spots clearly get much more sun than Braavos.

[Daeron the Daring]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

You say "pretty absurd", but GRRM says "very perceptive", "yes" and "that would be telling".

Not gonna lie what I think about that. That means nothing. If you ever bothered to watch multiple GRRM interviews, you may have realised that he never leaks a single thing. Never. He's always like "you'll see if that's important", "you have to read TWOW to know more about that" and the likes. He never leaks. Never. That's why he was so furious about his publishers posting what was her original idea to the series. Because it leaks and spoils things. At least it suggest what will not happen (if that's what it suggests). 

54 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

But if I can, in a work of fantasy, accept flying giant firebreathing lizards, I can certainly accept a cold foggy climate

Yet you can't accept a single lemontree on the same line of latitude where thousands of gators or crocks live. Don't you feel the irony in that?

[Mister Smikes]

35 minutes ago, Daeron the Daring said:

Not gonna lie what I think about that. That means nothing.

Well, one expects that from Lemonhaters.  Their egos are so invested that the author's own words don't count.  At all.  

And of course, you would be singing a very different tune if GRRM had given the answer you wanted.

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If you ever bothered to watch multiple GRRM interviews, you may have realised that he never leaks a single thing. Never. He's always like "you'll see if that's important", "you have to read TWOW to know more about that" and the likes.

Not true.  He explained that the Jeyne's hips thing was a mistake, for instance.  He has given other more tantalizing answers as well, where he volunteered meaningful information.

Nor was he put on the spot here.   This was not an interview.  He answered only because he chose to answer,  He was exactly as evasive as he chose to be.   What he chose to say, he presumably meant.  And he did not say "you'll see if that's important."  That's what you wish he said.  But it's not what he said.

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Yet you can't accept a single lemontree on the same line of latitude where thousands of gators or crocks live.

I can.  If you write your own work of fiction, where lemon trees grow unaided in the frozen tundra, and you say that's just how lemon trees work in your fantasy world, I'll gladly accept it.

But that's not the situation here.  You are the one who cannot accept the author's own words and the author's rules.  

 

[Nevets]

The debate over whether or not lemon trees can or cannot grow in Braavos's climate misses the real point.  The situation is sufficiently ambiguous that, if GRRM wants lemons to grow in Braavos, they will, and if he doesn't, they won't.  It could go either way.  The main point is the connection of lemons to Dorne.  Lemons are mentioned as coming from Drone repeatedly - and recently.  It is even mentioned in one of the preview chapters, sugesting it is still an ongoing thing.  Lemons and Dorne are closely connected, which suggests that the house with the red door has some connection to Dorne.  And I say this as someone who doesn't like "lemongate" and firmly believes that Daenerys is who she appears to be.

This does not mean that the house is actually in Dorne.  It could be a house in Braavos owned by a well-off Dornishman (wealthy merchant, envoy, etc.) who wanted a lemon tree in his backyard and went to the trouble of cultivating one.  someone like that could have hosted Viserys and Daenerys for a time, with Darry the glue holding things together.  He dies, and they have to leave.  This would still indicate some high level of Dornish involvement.  Or the house could be someplace in Dorne, which raises interesting questions.  Like the level of Dornish involvement, whether Doran knew, or Varys for that matter.  Given his duoble dealing on the issue of Targaryens, it is certainly possible that he knew and kept that from Robert.  Where and why could also be questions to ask.

What I don't think it indicates is that Dany is any kind of changeling.  There is no point to that.  If she dies as a young girl, you hold a funeral and move on.  She isn't that important; essentially, she's surplus.  I certainly don't buy the notion that Viserys is going to take on a changeling he has to spend money on to clothe, feed, house, educate and generally take care of on the off chance that, in ten years or so, he might be able to marry off to someone who might be able to put together an army that Viserys might be able to use to take back Westeros.  That is a lot of ifs and maybes, even for Viserys, with an awfully long timeline, which isn't like Viserys.  This guy has trouble planning ten days ahead, much less ten years.  Besides which, he tried to have sex with her just before the wedding.  I don't see the point of having sex with her unless she really is his sister (yes, that is as strange to write as it is to read).  So I am inclined to believe that the lemon references have something to do with more extensive Dornish involvement that we know of, but not to any secret identity for Daenerys.