Who's "they" ?

[Jon Fossoway]

On 9/29/2021 at 12:03 AM, The Bard of Banefort said:

Probably Willa. Someone had to be there to help Lyanna deliver the baby.

Same I thought. It's hard to believe there were only Lyanna and the kingsguard men in that tower when Eddard & co. arrived. There was probably a detachment of servants to take care of preg Lyanna and do various more things like cooking, taking care of the noblefolk armors, clothes, and so on.

[Mister Smikes]

5 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

If you go much beyond 5 then our Dany should remember her early life enough to know that she isn't who they say she is and that the House with the Red Door wasn't in Braavos and the man she lived with wasn't Willem Darry.

 Don't go much beyond 5 then.  "5 years old" is just a placeholder in the hypothesis.   If the theory turns out to be broadly true, it is GRRM who will supply the actual details.  On the one hand, she must be young enough for the scheme to have a chance of success.  On the other hand, she must be old enough to have one or two discrepant memories to serve as clues, and a fighting chance of eventually breaking through her programming.  3, 4, 5, 6, or somewhere in between.  Whatever you (or GRRM) think most plausible.  

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Unless you think Dany is significantly younger than she's presented as, but that seems pretty unlikely.

I don't think she is significantly young than she is presented as.  I already told you that. 

I would expect she left the house with the red door roughly 8 years before we first meet her, and was acquired by Illyrio (and Viserys) roughly 8 years before we first meet her.  Give or take, with a relatively brief period between.  Again, if the theory turns out to be true, GRRM will supply the actual details, according to what he deems most plausible.

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If she was supposedly in hiding for years before that it begs the question of how nobody would doubt that she was alive

It is not established that nobody ever doubted that she was alive.   The theory neither requires her to be in hiding for years, nor rules it out.  If it turns out she was in hiding (or dead) for years, then GRRM should have no trouble supplying a plausible set of details.

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or why there'd be such a wait to replace her.

The theory neither requires there to be a wait to replace her, nor rules it out.  In either case, GRRM should have no difficulty providing a plausible set of details.

Maybe, for various reasons, Darry had to die first.  Maybe (since toddlers change as they grow) the replacement child had to be old enough to have reasonable confidence it would still look like a Targ in adulthood.

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Slavery is not legal in Dorne

It's not legal in Bear Island either.   And Targ-featured slave girls are considerably more valuable than a few random poachers.

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and Dany's memories of the House with the Red Door don't really sound like the upbringing of a slave girl, so that's not a very good explanation IMO.

It's certainly not my explanation.  My version of the theory does never suggested she was a slave while she was at the House with the Red Door.

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Basically everything you cited is either not an actual hint (e.g. Rhaegar being Bonifer's son is pure crack) or relies on a specific reading of text that is not at all obvious and has various alternate explanations that are often much more likely. 

Well, YMMV.  Not all of the clues are consistent.  There are some that suggest R+A=D, and others that suggest R+L=D.  Take your pick and leave the rest.

But in general, you are applying a standard that R+L=J could not pass either.  Try to prove to a denialist non-believer that the "bed of blood" is an "actual hint" of anything.  Can you prove she was not stabbed to death in bed?  Etc. etc. etc. etc. 

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Based on what?

Based on an SSM where GRRM said that Jon was not as much as a year older than Dany but "closer to" 8 or 9 months older than Dany.  Dany was born roughly 9 moons after the Sack of King's Landing.  This suggests that Jon was born at around the time of the sack, or (at most) a month or so later.  This does not leave Ned with much time to do all the things he had to do -- quarrel with Robert about dead babies, lead his army south to break the siege of Storms End, break the siege of Storms End, then come to the Tower of Joy.

Of course, there are a number of ways around this.  One of the ways around this is to suppose that Dany was not born when we think.  But that route does not help you much.

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Who are Jon's parents in your theory? 

I'm open on the question.  I'm leaning towards him being a child of Rhaegar and Lyanna, but maybe conceived at Harrenhal and born earlier in the abduction.   But, though somewhat interlinked, they are separate questions.  I could be right on one, but wrong on the other.

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And since you seem to be arguing that Dany is the ToJ baby, how is Barristan thinking she looks like Ashara a hint?

If Ned has multiple babies to juggle, the one that gets left at the TOJ will not necessarily be the one that was born there, but the one that looks most like a Targaryen.  But of course, Barristan thinking she looks like Ashara mght not be a clue but a red herring.

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I didn't pretend anything, did you even bother reading the last part of the text you cited?

I read the whole sentence.  I honestly don't know what you think I missed.

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She's 15 and there doesn't appear to be a shred of doubt in anybody's mind that she's who she says she is,

Who exactly should have such doubts?  And why should that person go out of his way to express his doubts to Dany or to the reader?  

You sound as you are angry at the idea that GRRM might try to surprise you, by withholding information from you, and by not giving you clues that are undeniable and super-obvious.  

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Jeyne got passed off as Arya for a few months and it's not even clear if that fooled everybody (obviously we know it didn't fool Theon).

It probably fooled quite a few people.  And if GRRM chose to give us access to all of the wrong POVs, and none of the right POVs, he could potentially fool the readers as well.  In Jeyne's case, he is not trying to fool the readers, but that's purely a matter of the POVs and perspectives he chooses to feed us.   The Jeyne plot is obviously more of a challenge, what with Jeyne being a much older child, and being sent to live near people (such as Theon) who knew both Jeyne and Arya for years.  But where has Dany ever gone that folks would necessarily know from looking at her that she is not the Mad King's true daughter?

Even Theon (aged 19) lost his identity for a while under the effects of Ramsay's torments.  Jeyne's case may be more severe.  We shall see.  

When Theon mounted Bran and Rickon's heads on spikes, Maester Luwyn had his doubts.  But GRRM chose not to reveal that fact at the time to us the readers.  He kept us in suspense for a while.

[alienarea]

On 9/29/2021 at 3:40 AM, Falcon2909 said:

Those already present in the room must've been a midwife, a maester, a servant if you believe she gave birth.

There the speculation starts.

 

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

39 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

It's not legal in Bear Island either.   And Targ-featured slave girls are considerably more valuable than a few random poachers.

Theoretically there could be Valyrian-featured slave girls for sale in Dorne on the DL, but it seems a pretty unlikely choice compared to other places

41 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

It's certainly not my explanation.  My version of the theory does never suggested she was a slave while she was at the House with the Red Door.

All I did was respond to your line about Illyrio being a slaver trader, you brought that line of thought into the discussion. I think this gets at a key frustration that I and other posters have in discussions with you - the burden of proof is on you to put forth a convincing theory, but instead you just kinda throw a bunch of vague possibilities that aren't necessarily literally impossible and demand everyone else definitively debunk all of them. And in fairness, there are various different ways complex theories could pan out, but that begs the question of why you're so insistent on specific details (like Dany not being the daughter of Rhaella and Aerys) while being so open-minded on others. GRRM could go a lot of ways as you say, but if anything that seems like a reason to be cautious about assuming that Lemongate automatically = fake Dany.

45 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

It's certainly not my explanation.  My version of the theory does never suggested she was a slave while she was at the House with the Red Door.

No, I'm not, in fact I would argue that this logic is much more reflective of your reasoning. The "bed of blood" has a very clear implication of childbirth, and Jon is by far the most logical choice to be Lyanna's child. Most of the lines you cited rely on interpretations that are way less obvious or likely than bed of blood = childbirth. But since most of them can't be definitely proven as not referring to your interpretation, you can maintain that they're hints for your theory.

47 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Based on an SSM where GRRM said that Jon was not as much as a year older than Dany but "closer to" 8 or 9 months older than Dany.  Dany was born roughly 9 moons after the Sack of King's Landing.  This suggests that Jon was born at around the time of the sack, or (at most) a month or so later.  This does not leave Ned with much time to do all the things he had to do -- quarrel with Robert about dead babies, lead his army south to break the siege of Storms End, break the siege of Storms End, then come to the Tower of Joy.

I've heard this objection before it and it's nonsense. Martin gave a vague and general offhand remark that your own quote indicates wasn't even a precise range. The idea that it disproves Jon being the ToJ baby requires us to ignore those facts and to assume that Martin's timeline involves realistically accurate travel times, which is something Martin by his own admission does not have. He's talked about how he has enough trouble keeping the years straight, isn't good with numbers, and there's literally a SSM where he says that he keeps things like distances vague so he doesn't have readers telling him that Ned couldn't have done X in the amount of time Martin says he did. And if you're assuming Dany isn't Rhaella's daughter, then I don't see how you can use her presumed birthdate as a reference to try to disprove Jon being the ToJ baby.

53 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

I'm open on the question.  I'm leaning towards him being a child of Rhaegar and Lyanna, but maybe conceived at Harrenhal and born earlier in the abduction.   But, though somewhat interlinked, they are separate questions.  I could be right on one, but wrong on the other.

Jon would literally be more than a year older than he supposedly is, it's absurd to think that this would be a plausible lie or one that Ned would even entertain. Ned will lie that Jon is his son in order to protect him, but passing him off as a year younger than he is would be completely unnecessary, increase tension and resentment in his marriage (and towards Jon), and risk arousing suspicion from people who see through such an obvious lie. There's also a SSM from many years ago where someone asked Martin what year was the year of the false spring (aka the year Harrenhal happened) and Martin couldn't recall off the top of his head if it was 1 or 2 years before the start of Robert's Rebellion. If Jon was conceived at Harrenhal that would be a crucial element of any timeline and I can't see Martin forgetting that it couldn't possible have been more than a year before Lyanna disappeared. I also don't see why Rhaegar and Lyanna would try to have another baby literally right after she gave birth, Rhaegar was aiming for 3 heads and would have got it with Jon. And while it's theoretically possible that you could be wrong on one and not the other, the argument you've made in this thread about Willam Dustin is contingent on Dany being the ToJ baby, as are several of the supposed hints you listed.

59 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

If Ned has multiple babies to juggle, the one that gets left at the TOJ will not necessarily be the one that was born there, but the one that looks most like a Targaryen.  But of course, Barristan thinking she looks like Ashara mght not be a clue but a red herring.

Why would Ned be juggling Ashara's baby in the first place?

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

I read the whole sentence.  I honestly don't know what you think I missed.

I literally said that you proposed an explanation to fill that gap (which many other Lemongate theories don't address) but that I didn't find it convincing. You can disagree on that, but I clearly was not saying that you personally were proposing a scenario where Viserys had no sister until ~5 years later.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

You sound as you are angry at the idea that GRRM might try to surprise you, by withholding information from you, and by not giving you clues that are undeniable and super-obvious.  

Why do you always think everyone who doesn't find your theories convincing is angry?

[corbon]

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Is there anything to suggest?  Sure.  There's the fact that she is healthy, talented and (relatively) sane, whereas all of Rhaella's doubly-inbred children by Aerys were either non-viable or Viserys.  There's Rhaegar as the only exception,

Rhaella had 11 known pregnancies.
3 miscarriages
2 stillborn
1 2 months premature but still survived to the following year.
2 others born viable but didn't make it to 1 year old
3 children made it to adulthood

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"I am no maester to quote history at you, Your Grace. Swords have been my life, not books. But every child knows that the Targaryens have always danced too close to madness. Your father was not the first. King Jaehaerys once told me that madness and greatness are two sides of the same coin. Every time a new Targaryen is born, he said, the gods toss the coin in the air and the world holds its breath to see how it will land."

We got 1 heads, and one tails. Rhaegar and Viserys.
Dany not being mad is not a suggestion she is not the child of Aerys and Rhaella.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

but with hints regarding Bonifer suggesting an alternate parentage theory.  

The lunatic ravings of a paranoic are a fitting 'support' for such a theory. 

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's the ironic clue of Aerys accusing Rhaella of adultery when her children were ill or deformed.   

Ditto.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's the Fake Arya subplot, and the Reek subplot. 

And the fAegon subplot. But you know, these are not just their own stories, they are all clues that Dany in particular is not who we all think she is. 

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's the "remember who you are" theme that appears in both the Theon and Dany chapters. 

Right, because we can take a theme (characters struggling t hold on to their true identity in the face of life's path) and reverse it if we want to (now the identity is false and its all ironic), just so it works for our particular little theory. Isn't logic wonderful - you can make it work whichever way suits you!

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's Jorah telling Dany she takes more after Rhaegar than Aerys. 

Coin, flip. 

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's Barristan thinking she reminds him of Ashara. 

...because Ashara had a notably Targaryen feature and Barristan, and old man with a life dedicated to service of a military nature has been involved closely with so many many teenage purple eyed girls.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is the storm of rose petals in Ned's fever dream

Because rose petals are a Dany thing... wait, aren't roses associated with someone else entirely, someone intimately connected to that dream? 

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is the clue suggesting Aegon is TPTWP; and the clues suggesting that the other 2 heads of the dragon ought to be his siblings, as per history and Rhaegar's expectations. 

Err, no. The dragon has three heads. They aren't necessarily siblings. The weren't historically siblings (two were, but the other was not). Rhaegar might have thought they might be siblings, but he'd already been wrong once. He also might have just been trying to make the prophecy work, help it along the best way he could, rather than assuming they must be siblings.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is Rhaegar saying "there must be one more" as he looks at Dany in her vision. 

Which in no way points to her as not-Dany.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is the "3 mounts shall you ride" thing - we've already seen horse and dragon - what will the 3rd mount be if not a direwolf? 

Doesn't point to her being not-Dany (never mind that Direwolf mounts are not a thing, nor is a Direwolf the only option)

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There Illyrio, co-conspirator in the scheme to sell Dany to Drogo, as a slaver dealing in Targ-haired children. 

You mean. there's Illyrio who deals in many things, in an area of the world where Valyrian colouring from ex-Valyrian colonies is relatively common? 

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is Viserys openly wondering to Illyrio if Dany can pass as a Targ princess. 

Can't find any such thing.
Nearest I can find is Viserys telling her "Tonight you must look like a princess", which is a reference to her being given fancy clothes and jewelry to wear as she was paraded before Drogo. He doesn't question her ability to pass as such.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is Dany's memory of Viserys' enraged punishment of her, for daring to hint at the thought that she could be anything other than a Targ princess. 

Again, can't find any such passage.
She several times fears displeasing him, that it will wake the dragon, but I can;t find any passage about her being not-Targaryen-Princess.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's the scents of the Western Market that remind her of home, and which evidently are not meant to be fish oils. 

Fish oils are not the scents of her home in Braavos.

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She did take a dozen flasks of scented oils, the perfumes of her childhood; she had only to close her eyes and sniff them and she could see the big house with the red door once more

In Bravos, the house wit teh red door, the scents that recall her childhood are scented oils - perfumes, not fish oils. She lived in a rich house, not frequented the docks.

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But the Western Market smelled of home.

As Irri and Jhiqui helped her from her litter, she sniffed, and recognized the sharp odors of garlic and pepper, scents that reminded Dany of days long gone in the alleys of Tyrosh and Myr and brought a fond smile to her face. Under that she smelled the heady sweet perfumes of Lys. 

Other smells of the western market explicitly remind her of her childhood wandering in Tyrish, Myr, Lys and the other free cities after they were kicked out of the house with the red door.

Its likely, though not guaranteed, that the perfumes of her childhood, the flasks of scented oils, are the heady sweet perfumes of Lys. Or some of them at least.

So actually, these things are direct supporters of the narrative, not clues against it.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There's her association of the Red Door House with the idea of a simple life, which hardly seems to fit the Sealord's Palace theory. 

Whether the House with the Red Door was part of the Sealord's Palace (doubtful IMO) or just another rich house in Bravos (I think you confuse the proof that the Sealord's palace explicitly has exotics, which shows that rich houses in Bravos also can have exotics as an argument that the Red Door house was the Sealord's palace - though no doubt someone has unnecessarily suggested precisely that at some stage, for a sheltered, wealthy little girl, yes, life can be simple and happy.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There are the clues regarding "they" and Willam's bones which we have been discussing in this thread. 

And previously shown to be ridiculous and counter-textual

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

 There's the fact that Jon is apparently too old to be the baby born at the time of the TOJ incident. 

Totally incorrect. Jon is very close to exactly the right age to be the baby born at ToJ, within a month or so, comfortably within the margins of error.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is the prophesy of the girl in grey who is Jon's sister and is obviously not Alys Karstark. 

Again, nothing to do with not-Dany.
Actually, the theory on that that I think fits the textual clues best is Lyanna Stark. But thats pretty obscure. We really don;t have a solid clue who it is yet.

10 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

There is the natural expectation that the Tower of Joy will be the source of at least some climactic revelations. 

Thats got even less to do with Dany. She's not even born till 8-9 months later.

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

GRRM says yes, it is a discrepancy, and that it points to something significant and spoilerish. 

He does not say its significant. He merely says its perceptive to notice, it does point to something, and he doesn't want to tell what yet. 

3 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

No-one arguing in this thread that a real world lemon tree could grow in Braavos has addressed the sunlight problem.  Lemons need a lot of sun, and Braavos is obviously the last place in the world they are going to get any.

This has been addressed before, just clearly not where you saw it.
There is no 'sunlight problem', just a reading comprehension problem. Or more commonly, a 'seize on whatever half-truth can be found to support your point regardless of the actual data' problem - which anyone, including me, can be guilty of at times. 

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The day looked to be a rare one, crisp and clear and bright. Braavos only had three kinds of weather; fog was bad, rain was worse, and freezing rain was worst. But every so often would come a morning when the dawn broke pink and blue and the air was sharp and salty. Those were the days that Cat loved best.

First, note that Arya is there in Autumn, which is only part of the year. And typically a grey, miserable season in climes such as Braavos.
Second, not that the only three kinds of weather is clearly a joke (stereotypical no doubt), and absolutely not true - as proven by both the day Arya thinks of the joke and the days she likes best. 

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From the top of its span, she could look through the arches and see all the city: the green copper domes of the Hall of Truth, the masts rising like a forest from the Purple Harbor, the tall towers of the mighty, the golden thunderbolt turning on its spire atop the Sealord's Palace...even the Titan's bronze shoulders, off across the dark green waters. But that was only when the sun was shining down on Braavos. If the fog was thick there was nothing to see but grey, so today Mercy chose the shorter route to save some wear on her poor cracked boots.

Its clear that Braavos does have sunny, bright, clear days, even during Autumn. Arya has seen enough of those bright sunny days to know what the city looks like from the top span of the Bridge of Eyes.

Braavos seems very analogous to, say, London. Famously grey, cold, miserable, foggy. And thats the stereotype. But equally, London, and Braavos, do get sunlight, even outside summer. Not enough for Lemon trees to be 'native' or plentiful (like the pines on the surrounding hills) but enough to grow Lemon trees in the gardens of the mighty (as all trees in the city are).

[Mister Smikes]

4 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Theoretically there could be Valyrian-featured slave girls for sale in Dorne on the DL, but it seems a pretty unlikely choice compared to other places

Criminals are opportunistic, and Valyrian featured girls are valuable.  If an unscrupulous person gets his hands on a Valyrian featured girl, he can just take her to a seaport, find a ship bound for Pentos and sell her to an unscrupulous captain.    If this can happen to some random poachers on Bear Island, it can certainly happen to a Valyrian-featured girl.  But again, the details are up to GRRM.

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All I did was respond to your line about Illyrio being a slaver trader, you brought that line of thought into the discussion.

Have I not addressed your objection?  I don't think Dany was a slave, or in Illyrio's custody, when she was at the House with the Red Door.  

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I think this gets at a key frustration that I and other posters have in discussions with you -

With all due respect, your frustration is for you to deal with.  You don't need to be convinced by anything I have said.  You can just say "haha ur so stoopid" and move on.  Your emotionally-driven need to actively disprove something that was never anything more than a speculative theory, is your own problem.  

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the burden of proof is on you to put forth a convincing theory

No it isn't.  The OP asked for theories, and I gave mine.  No-one gave you you a special license to hand out special burdens.  You don't have to be convinced by anything I say, and I don't have to be convinced by anything you say.  Please talk to me as an equal, or don't talk to me at all.  Take your "burden of proof" and shove it right back up that dark smelly place that you pulled it from.

If you want to be convinced, wait for the books.  If, in the meantime, you want to discuss hypotheses and possibilities, then talk to me as an equal.  If you don't want to talk to me as an equal, then I'd rather you get out of my face.

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but instead you just kinda throw a bunch of vague possibilities that aren't necessarily literally impossible and demand everyone else definitively debunk all of them.

I have not demanded that you debunk anything.  If it not my fault that you feel frustrated because your over-eagerness to debunk exceeds what you can actually achieve.

This thread contains a number of excellent suggestions as to who "they" might be, inconsistent with my own.  You don't see me harassing these people with demands for absolute proof.  

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And in fairness, there are various different ways complex theories could pan out, but that begs the question of why you're so insistent on specific details (like Dany not being the daughter of Rhaella and Aerys) while being so open-minded on others.

Dany not being the daughter of Rhaella and Aerys is only a theory.  I never suggested otherwise.  The status of the discussion is fueled by the over-eagerness of adversaries, such as yourself,  to prove that it is impossible and ridiculous.  That's your problem.  

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GRRM could go a lot of ways as you say, but if anything that seems like a reason to be cautious about assuming that Lemongate automatically = fake Dany.

I have already taken the position, in this thread, multiple times, that Lemongate does not automatically mean Fake Dany.   

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The "bed of blood" has a very clear implication of childbirth and Jon is by far the most logical choice to be Lyanna's child.

 

Most of the lines you cited rely on interpretations that are way less obvious or likely than bed of blood = childbirth. But since most of them can't be definitely proven as not referring to your interpretation, you can maintain that they're hints for your theory.

I'm inclined to believe that the "bed of blood" = childbirth inference has considerable weight.  But I can imagine the inference being wrong.  I'm flexible that way.  Obviously, the inference that the theorized child must have survived goes further out on a limb, and the suggestion that the (theorized) child might be Jon goes even further out on a limb.  And here it is even easier to find alternate possibilities.  And again, I am inclined to believe that Jon is the son of Lyanna, though I am less sure he was born at the time of the TOJ incident, for the reasons I have stated. 

You and I have a different approach to evidence.  For you, every point in favor of a theory you like is absolute proof, and every point in favor a theory you dislike is complete bunk and has no weight at tall.  I don't roll that way, though.

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I've heard this objection before it and it's nonsense. Martin gave a vague and general offhand remark that your own quote indicates wasn't even a precise range.The idea that it disproves Jon being the ToJ baby requires us to ignore those facts and to assume that Martin's timeline involves realistically accurate travel times, which is something Martin by his own admission does not have. He's talked about how he has enough trouble keeping the years straight, isn't good with numbers, and there's literally a SSM where he says that he keeps things like distances vague so he doesn't have readers telling him that Ned couldn't have done X in the amount of time Martin says he did. And if you're assuming Dany isn't Rhaella's daughter, then I don't see how you can use her presumed birthdate as a reference to try to disprove Jon being the ToJ baby.

Here we see a perfect illustration of your approach to evidence.  The point does not support a theory you like, so you insist it has no weight at all.  

That said, I agree it is possible to find ways around this point.   It is not all or nothing with me.  The point can have some weight, without that weight being absolute.  A point can have some weight, and still be outweighed by contrary evidence.  I never offered it as absolute proof that Jon was not the baby born at the time of the TOJ incident.    And yes, I agree that it is perfectly plausible GRRM could have messed up his timelines.  Nonetheless, maybe you should consider that when you have to argue against the author himself to make your case, maybe you should be a bit more humble about your position.  

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Jon would literally be more than a year older than he supposedly is,

Not for current purposes.  As far as I can tell he could be just about the same age he is supposed to be, give or take a month or two, and till be born before the Sack, at the Sack, or only a month after the Sack.  But I guess you have switched to arguing against the idea that he was conceived at Harrenhal, which is a whole other issue.  And I am flexible about that one too.

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it's absurd to think that this would be a plausible lie or one that Ned would even entertain. Ned will lie that Jon is his son in order to protect him, but passing him off as a year younger than he is would be completely unnecessary, increase tension and resentment in his marriage (and towards Jon), and risk arousing suspicion from people who see through such an obvious lie. There's also a SSM from many years ago where someone asked Martin what year was the year of the false spring (aka the year Harrenhal happened) and Martin couldn't recall off the top of his head if it was 1 or 2 years before the start of Robert's Rebellion. If Jon was conceived at Harrenhal that would be a crucial element of any timeline and I can't see Martin forgetting that it couldn't possible have been more than a year before Lyanna disappeared.

I'm not convinced by any of this.  I can imagine an older child being passed off as a younger child with relative ease.  I suspect you'd be surprised what can be gotten away with.  And if I am wrong about this, then perhaps GRRM is wrong as well.   And the servants at Winterfell DO seem to suspect that Jon was conceived at Harrenhal.  And then we have Maester Luwyn going around explaining that bastards mature faster than ordinary children.  Which is pure bunk, but perhaps he is covering for something.   But I know you won't agree that those points have any weight at all.

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I also don't see why Rhaegar and Lyanna would try to have another baby literally right after she gave birth, Rhaegar was aiming for 3 heads and would have got it with Jon.

Maybe they got horny.  Such things happen.

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the argument you've made in this thread about Willam Dustin is contingent on Dany being the ToJ baby

It is contingent of Dany being raised at the TOJ.  Not necessarily Dany being the TOJ baby, or the only TOJ baby.   The baby raised, in a secluded location, would be the one who looked most like a Targ, not necessarily the one (or the only one) that was born there.

Quote

Why would Ned be juggling Ashara's baby in the first place?

Umm... maybe because it looked like a Targ, and the reigning king was apparently a dragonspawn babykiller?  Just a thought.  There are all kinds of possibilities, and I'm actually rather flexible.

Quote

Why do you always think everyone who doesn't find your theories convincing is angry?

I do think you come across as very aggressive.  I don't mean everyone who finds my theories unconvincing.  I'm fine with them.  I'm talking about you, and maybe certain others in this thread.  But that's okay.  Be angry.

[ATaleofSalt&Onions]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

No it isn't.  The OP asked for theories, and I gave mine.  No-one gave you you a special license to hand out special burdens.  You don't have to be convinced by anything I say, and I don't have to be convinced by anything you say.  Please talk to me as an equal, or don't talk to me at all.  Take your "burden of proof" and shove it right back up that dark smelly place that you pulled it from.

If you want to be convinced, wait for the books.  If, in the meantime, you want to discuss hypotheses and possibilities, then talk to me as an equal.  If you don't want to talk to me as an equal, then I'd rather you get out of my face.

Constantly calling other people angry for no reason and then going into this demented screed and whining about how I'm not treating you as an equal just because I think it's a sound principle of basic argumentation that proving a positive and proving a negative are not the same thing is really pathetic.  I've discussed hypotheses and possibilities with you plenty in this thread, you just seem really insecure that people don't find your theories convincing. And that was my point - yes, technically speaking none of us here have to do anything or have any formal obligations, but if you want people to take your arguments seriously there are going to be certain expectations. Btw it's quite apparent in this thread that I'm not alone in my assessment of you.

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

I have not demanded that you debunk anything.  If it not my fault that you feel frustrated because your over-eagerness to debunk exceeds what you can actually achieve.

Every time somebody rebuts one of your arguments with evidence that's extremely compelling but technically not quite 100.0%, you double down with theoretical scenarios where your argument could be true as if they're equally or more plausible. This summarizes basically the entire Quentyn = Aegon thread and the Willam Dustin = Willem Darry debate in this thread. You're free to do this and I'm not saying otherwise, but other people are free to conclude you're not making a reasonable argument in good faith.3

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The status of the discussion is fueled by the over-eagerness of adversaries, such as yourself,  to prove that it is impossible and ridiculous.  That's your problem.

I've never said it was impossible, just that I don't find the evidence for it convincing.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

The status of the discussion is fueled by the over-eagerness of adversaries, such as yourself,  to prove that it is impossible and ridiculous.  That's your problem.

This is BS, there's very few theories I have any sort of firm conviction will happen, and almost all of the ones I do are things that have been confirmed outside of the books. You dismiss all counterevidence in favor of anything you can come up with whether or not it makes any sense, please don't pretend as if you're weighing things fairly here.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Here we see a perfect illustration of your approach to evidence.  The point does not support a theory you like, so you insist it has no weight at all.  

It's not that I think Martin's quote holds no weight, it's that I do not think your interpretation of it as weighing against Jon as the ToJ baby is very likely in context. It only doesn't support that if you assume that a) Martin was giving some sort of ironclad range rather than an off-the-cuff vague guesstimate AND b) that the necessary travel time we allot to Ned's journey is realistic assuming Westeros is the size of South America (as the wall scale implies) AND c) Jon was born right before Ned shows up. You have to make all three assumptions for this to be evidence against Jon as the ToJ baby.  I don't think the first two assumptions are reasonable given Martin's own words on timelines, distances, travel times, etc. I think it's reasonable to think Jon was born shortly before Ned showed up, but postpartum hemorrhage and death from postpartum fever can happen weeks after birth, so it's far from a certainty. Especially in light of the fact that alternate scenarios have much bigger problems when you take into account the evidence both in and out of the books, I do not think it's reasonable to conclude that Jon was not the baby Lyanna had recently birthed at the ToJ. I'm not arguing against Martin because Martin has never said how long it took Ned to travel to the ToJ and we don't know exactly how long it had been since Lyanna gave birth (setting aside the vague and rough nature of Martin's estimate in the first place).

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Not for current purposes.  As far as I can tell he could be just about the same age he is supposed to be, give or take a month or two, and till be born before the Sack, at the Sack, or only a month after the Sack.  But I guess you have switched to arguing against the idea that he was conceived at Harrenhal, which is a whole other issue.  And I am flexible about that one too.

What are you talking about, you literally suggested a Harrenhal conception in the text I quoted before that reply,  of course that's what I was arguing against. If R + L = J and R + L = D but they're not twins, Jon has to have been born way before the Sack.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I'm not convinced by any of this.  I can imagine an older child being passed off as a younger child with relative ease.  I suspect you'd be surprised what can be gotten away with.  And if I am wrong about this, then perhaps GRRM is wrong as well.   And the servants at Winterfell DO seem to suspect that Jon was conceived at Harrenhal.  And then we have Maester Luwyn going around explaining that bastards mature faster than ordinary children.  Which is pure bunk, but perhaps he is covering for something.   But I know you won't agree that those points have any weight at all.

It's rich that you handwave away my argument with "I'm not convinced by any of this" and then feign indignation that I won't give your points any weight. If you have any familiarity at all with young children, you'd know that passing a child of more than a year old off as a newborn is absurd. It's never stated that people at Winterfell believe Jon was conceived at Harrenhal. Harwin says that he heard the tale of Ned and Ashara falling in love there growing up, but never says anything about Jon or him being conceived there. The original rumors Catelyn recalls say nothing about Harrenhal. Someone once asked GRRM why Catelyn thinks Jon could be Ashara's if she couldn't have been with Ned during the war, and his response was that she wasn't nailed to the floor at Starfall and could have moved around (Note: My point here is not that I think N + A = J is plausible, but to illustrate that characters believing N + A = J doesn't mean they think Jon was conceived at Harrenhal). Taking Luwin's line to mean he's saying a newborn can walk and talk and act like a child more than a year older if it's a bastard is stretching it way beyond reason. And you still haven't provided any reason why Ned would concoct such a lie in the first place.

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Maybe they got horny.  Such things happen.

Women who've literally just given birth are known for being up for it right afterwards. This entire argument is based on reading Martin's quote under a very specific set of assumptions, and if the alternate possibilities have this many issues with such poor explanations, maybe the best conclusion is that those assumptions are not valid?

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

It is contingent of Dany being raised at the TOJ.  Not necessarily Dany being the TOJ baby, or the only TOJ baby.   The baby raised, in a secluded location, would be the one who looked most like a Targ, not necessarily the one (or the only one) that was born there.

I actually didn't pick up that you were suggesting she was literally raised at the ToJ (rather than just somewhere in Dorne), as that makes absolutely no sense given that Ned literally recalls tearing the tower down (and Dany's memories of the House with the Red Door don't really align with the ToJ and its surroundings).

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

Umm... maybe because it looked like a Targ, and the reigning king was apparently a dragonspawn babykiller?  Just a thought.  There are all kinds of possibilities, and I'm actually rather flexible.

Missing the point, why would Ned, out of everyone, be the one to handle this? Why would he specifically have custody of Ashara's kid in the first place?

2 hours ago, Mister Smikes said:

I do think you come across as very aggressive.  I don't mean everyone who finds my theories unconvincing.  I'm fine with them.  I'm talking about you, and maybe certain others in this thread.  But that's okay.  Be angry.

You accusing people of being angry is a pattern I've noticed involving multiple posters across more than one thread, even when you're the one that comes off as far more angry, as you have in this argument. I said I thought your argument wasn't convincing, you're the one demanding I shove things up dark places and demanding I treat you as an equal because you apparently think I'm treating you so unfairly. Doesn't really sound like I'm the one who's angry.

[Mister Smikes]

7 minutes ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

... demented screed ... whining ... you just seem really insecure ...I'm not alone in my assessment of you ... you're not making a reasonable argument in good faith.

Okay man.  I'm sorry I hurt your feelings by saying you sound angry.

[Walda]

On 10/12/2021 at 6:21 AM, Nevets said:

The main point is the connection of lemons to Dorne. 

Lemons grow in Dorne, but they also grow in the Vale and the Crownlands and the South generally.

The Dalts of Lemonwood have them on their sigil, so they are definitely associated with Dorne through the Dalts.

The Dalts are siding with Oberyn and Arriane against its ruling prince. Doran is pelted with them (and oranges, and a lime) on his way to Sunspear after Oberyn dies. So lemons could represent more particularly the Dornish opposition to the rule of the Martells.

There are groves of irrigated lemons on the Greenblood, which might, again, suggest opposition to Doran's rule is formenting there.

Note when Arianne was considering how she would dispose of her father when she ruled Dorne

Quote

She would return him to his Water Gardens, to live out what years remained him surrounded by laughing children and the smell of limes and oranges.

(AFfC Ch 21 The Queenmaker) 

No lemons.

Lemons are ubiquitous in Dorne's cuisine. When Sharna mocks Anguy for asking her to put some lemon on the duck, it is because the Riverlands have been razed and he seems not to have noticed.

Sharna knows what lemons are, but while she was away Brienne and Jaime consumed the last of the horse, oatcakes and cider, so all that is left in her larder is hardbread and onions and ale. Luckily, the boy caught a rabbit with his crossbow shortly before the BwB arrived (we know because it is still uncooked).

So they tapped a cask of ale to stew the brotherhood and the rabbit, and she is hanging that duck against another day. The carrots and cabbages Arya scrounged don't appear on the bill of fare either.

I don't think Sharna has done a thorough search of the area for food before concluding there were no lemons in the Riverlands. It is more that Anguy has been in the Riverlands since the Tourney of the Hand, since the good times when a real innkeep would see the glint of your gold dragon and say "Anything you like, m'lord. Anything at all" when you asked for lemon on your fowl.

 As Anguy ought to know, Sharna has been busy scouting for them on foot, mid-wiving for milkmaids, and trying to source clean water. Lemons are not a priority, is what she means. Lack of lemons is a first world problem, and he won't be having duck for supper either.

The Inn of the Kneeling Man is not an ideal place for lemon trees, any more than Braavos is.

Spoiler

Winds of Winter

Spoiler

But we know there are lemons in the Vale of Arryn (although not in great quantities.)

 

 

But people are using lemons all over Westeros before the war disrupts food supplies. Arya has lemon cakes at Winterfell and tries to trade a pigeon for a lemon in Fleabottom. The Lord Commander at Castle Black had lemon in his beer, from a Northern superstition it would save his teeth, but never in his wine (a Southron heresy).

Stannis and Cersei drink lemonwater to freshen their breath and stay sober. Ser Ryman Frey of the Riverlands and Cat of the Canals of Braavos bathe in lemonwater to disguise their less than sober smell. Sansa, Cersei, and Varys wear lemon scented perfumes.

Lemons are clearly more common throughout Westeros than oranges or peppers, even if they are regarded as a quintessentially Dornish food.

GRRM's use of citrus in food is really more Renaissance than medieval. Hardly surprising, as there are many more historical sources for foods after the development of the printing press and the increase in literacy. But as you say, it is about symbolism, not historical accuracy.

So I think lemons and lemon yellow symbolise opposition to Dorne or in Dorne. Oranges and orange symbolises Dorne the way the French house of Orange symbolises the Dutch Republic. Like, when they were ruled by the Spanish through that house, before William the Silent and the Protestant revolt and the eighty years war.

Braavos resembles medieval Bruges to me. The canals, houses, new financial instruments. Bruges was the big trading hub in medieval Europe. It was there that citrus from Spain and Portugal were introduced to northern Europe.

At first (in the high middle ages) it was in the form of dried citron peel for medicines. But in the late middle ages we see sucket spoons appearing in the silver inventories of wealthy houses (as part of the complex financial and buisness structures developing in Bruges) and lemons, and single oranges being purchased for more than the price of a horse and carriage.

The expense of these oranges lead to the creation of orangeries, once the glass-makers had worked out pane glass and nurserymen learnt about grafting. In Westeros Jon Snow grew up with Winterfell's glass gardens and sends for Myrish glassmakers to build orangeries for the Night's Watch, so I have no problem applying this particular post-Renaissance citrus-growing technology to Westeros. Especially to those places in Westeros where people bathe in lemon water and wear Myrish lace.

When Septon Maribald brings his sack of oranges from Maidenpool,  we see they are a curiosity for the smallfolk along the Trident, even though they are selling by the sackful at the docks of Maidenpool (shipped from Oldtown) and Septon Meribald can afford to purchase one.

Earlier, we learnt oranges came in casks from Oldtown, and were given as costly gifts to be chucked around by the bratty children of Highborn lords. But Cersei believes ships come from Dorne, when she shares an orange with Tommen, ignorant of the naval dispositions of the South.

I don't know where the Kindly Man gets the orange rinds he uses to sweeten his breath. But oranges are by no means as costly and rare as they were in medieval northern Europe.

 The Titan's Daughter was casting off Maidenpool docks when Brienne arrived at them, and she could as easily have bought an orange from the Seastrider. Selhorys supplies the Shy Maid with oranges, and Volantis. 

 Symbolically, orange is the colour of the ruler of Dorne. I would say orange and oranges are more strongly associated with Dorne than lemons.

When Arya throws the orange at Sansa, or Robert at Dax, when Petyr Baelish exhorts Sansa to keep her hands clean, or Old Lord Hunter serves the Lords Declarent orange-scented wine at Tyrion's trial at the Eyrie, I suspect this foreshadows a Dornish plot. Or perhaps it is a clue to what happened at the Tower of Joy all those years ago.

But I see Dornish plots in every orange shadow or glow, for  instance, when Jaime remembers

Quote

the sullen orange glow of the coals in the iron dragon’s mouth.

(AFfC Ch 8 Jaime I), He immediately associates the brazier in the tunnel junction below the Tower of the Hand with "the iron tones that had once belonged to Rhaegar, Prince of Dragonstone."

If the black dragon brazier is Rhaegar, the fire in its maw is Elia of Dorne and her children. Even though Stannis is also an iron prince of Dragonstone, and Drogon is a black dragon that breathes orange flame. Dorne must share its orange fires with the Lord of light, just as lemons also symbolise Yunkai, and Yezzen.

 So the princes of Dorne wear layered robes of red, yellow, and orange. The same colours fly from Rhaegar's black dragon helm. Those are the colours of Stannis's banner and his sword, the colours of the Temple of the Lord of Light in Volantis, tattooed on the face of Morqorro, in the yellow and orange robes of the acolytes and the red of the priests. The colours of dragonfire.

Jon Snow also has a share of the sullen orange and burnt ember imagery

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Jon drew Longclaw from its sheath. Rain washed the steel, and the firelight traced a sullen orange line along the edge. Such a small fire, to cost a man his life.

(ASoS Ch 41 Jon V)

We see the same ember imagery in Barristan's duel with Khrazz

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“If you are not the Harpy, give me his name.” Ser Barristan pulled his sword from the scabbard. Its sharp edge caught the light from the brazier, became a line of orange fire.

(ADwD Ch 67 The Kingbreaker)

The ghost of High Heart refers to Thoros as "the ember" and "pink priest". She calls Lem "the Lemon".

"His mouth will taste of lemons and mine of bone" remind me that the boneway lies between the red mountains of Dorne, and the Marches.

The landscape around the Marches doesn't seem especially yellow. At Griffith's Roost at least, the crags are red. The trees are in Autumn colours, which could mean yellow, or yellow orange and red, but that would make the Marches black in the winter, green in the summer, and flowery in the spring. Not a perfect match for 'lemon'.

The Ghost of High Heart uses ember imagery as a link to the trees of the Old Gods - well, the oak trees 

Quote

This place belongs to the old gods still … they linger here as I do, shrunken and feeble but not yet dead. Nor do they love the flames. For the oak recalls the acorn, the acorn dreams the oak, the stump lives in them both. And they remember when the First Men came with fire in their fists.”

(ASoS Ch 43 Arya VIII)

She reminds us that Hoster Tully's funeral also had an ember image

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He nocked an arrow, held it steady for the brand, drew and released before Catelyn was quite sure that the fire had caught … but as the shot rose, she saw the flames trailing through the air, a pale orange pennon. The boat had vanished in the mists. Falling, the flaming arrow was swallowed up as well … but only for a heartbeat. Then, sudden as hope, they saw the red bloom flower. The sails took fire, and the fog glowed pink and orange.

(ASoS Ch 35 Catelyn IV)

The Cleganes have orange shadows

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The shifting flames painted Sandor Clegane’s burned face with orange shadows,

(ASoS Ch 34 Arya VI)

and

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Ser Gregor Clegane’s face might have been hewn from rock. The fire in the hearth gave a somber orange cast to his skin and put deep shadows in the hollows of his eyes. “They saw nothing?"

(ASoS, Ch 69 Tyrion IX)

Maybe some shady Dornish scheme brings about Cleganebowl?

The Cleganes are Westermen, but there is a lot of yellow on their sigils. And is it coincidence that both Myrcella's kingsguard escorts were from the Marches?

The Greyjoys also have some orange ember imagery as well.

Dany notes that in the dark all doors are black. This ember allision, and the dragons remind us that all burning doors are red. There are a lot of red fire viewed through open doorways or tunnels, at the Wall, Meereen, King's Landing, Fair Isle. 

The yellow and orange references also seem to hint to me of a secret alliance between Dorne and the Reach and the Faith, in spite of what their forefathers would think of it. I am especially suspicious of Margaery

Quote

“You should have come along with us, Your Grace,” the little schemer prattled on as they climbed the slope of Aegon’s High Hill. “We could have had such a lovely time together. The trees are gowned in gold and red and orange, and there are flowers everywhere. Chestnuts too. We roasted some on our way home.”

(AFfC Ch 28 Cersei IV)

The trees are gowned, Cersei

*

@Mister Smikes I think this is the quote you are relying on for your interpretation of the Braavosi climate.

Quote

The day looked to be a rare one, crisp and clear and bright. Braavos only had three kinds of weather; fog was bad, rain was worse, and freezing rain was worst. But every so often would come a morning when the dawn broke pink and blue and the air was sharp and salty.

(AFfC Ch 24 Cat of the Canals)

It is not describing what Braavos is like in the summer. Arya can't comment on that. She has never seen a winter or a spring, so she is not a completely reliable source.

Even on the miserable autumn weather of Braavos. "Three types of weather" is hyperbolic, contradicted by the "rare fine morning" (which I note is also a cold one) that Cat is actually experiencing at the time.

That description is not unlike a description of autumn weather in London, or Bruges. When you live there it feels like it never stops raining, except when it pours, as the days grow shorter. And it seems as if you never see the sun.

But the wan sun that shows half a minute here and there while you are too busy to notice actally adds up to a couple of hours most days, and the breaks between showers often add up to even more than a couple, although it always seems to rain on you.

It's easy to forget how glorious the weather was in summer, because it is lousy in fall, and unlike Cat, you know it is worse in winter.

This "only three types" comment is not all we know of Braavosi weather. On the night Cat met Sam

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There was a chill in the air, but the night was not half so foggy as some.

(AFfC Ch 26 Samwell III)

Blind Beth doesn't notice any rain when she goes to Pyntos, and if the cat saw any fog when it followed her home, she doesn't say.

In the week she follows the man she is giving the gift to, a puddle is mentioned, but no actual rain or fog. On the day itself

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When at last day came to Braavos, it came grey and dark and overcast. The girl had hoped for fog, but the gods ignored her prayers as gods so often did. The air was clear and cold, and the wind had a nasty bite to it.

(ADwD, Ch 64 The Ugly Little Girl)

Cloud cover, with no fog or rain. No actually witnessed freezing fog at all.

And yes, fog reqires either a warm moist air mass over a cold surface (advection fog, the thick pea-soup fogs that roll in from the sea, are this) or cold air over a warm moist surface (autumn fogs that lift from rivers and valleys in the morning are usually this) to form. 

The thickness of Braavosi fogs, and the freezing fogs, suggest to me that they more commonly have advection fog. It is usually thicker, and doesnt take as long to accumulate. It is more wind-resistant and less predictable than radiation fog. London is famous for it. And it is common in paces where currents of warm air keep them less cold than they would otherwise be.

In the Riverlands,  the fog acts more like radiation fog, gathering in the still of the night and lifted off by wind and burnt away by the morning sun.

All types of fogs need either a warm pocket of air or a warm surface to form on.

Foggy climates like London don't get as much sunshine as, say, Calgery (same lattitude) but the warm air current that makes the fog, and the cloud cover makes London typically warmer than Calgary at the same time of year.

Just checked the forecast for yesterday's fine Autumn day. London is overcast, 50° to 59°F. Calgary is bright and sunny, 23° to 53° F. Again, same latitude.

In either climate lemons go dormant in the autumn cold. Its metabolism would slow down, it would stop putting out new growth, it would photosynthesise less.

But sunny Calgary would kill it, because its roots can't handle temperatures below 45°F.  Freezing fog will kill it too, if it was exposed to it. Even in London, it needs nurturing just to keep it alive in the cold months. They can even be coaxed to flower and fruit in the London winter, if you get the microclimate right. (Lemons fruit in the winter, like passionfruits. Some varieties fruit up to three times a year. Although a tree in a London courtyard won't fruit so prolifically as one in Sicily would).

GRRM has a deep understanding of fog. I suspect partly because he is the son of a longshoreman, he has this understanding of air and sea currents, and never forgets that hempen rope tightens as it gets damper. We can find a way for a lemon tree to exist in Braavos without breaking the rules he made for his universe. His fogs so far have operated on the same rules that apply in our world.

[Mister Smikes]

1 hour ago, Walda said:

Lemons grow in Dorne, but they also grow in the Vale and the Crownlands and the South generally.

I am aware of no evidence of lemon trees growing in the Vale or the Crownlands.  And nothing in your long post presented any.  The Vale has lemons, not lemon trees, and they are imported, since when Littlefinger runs out, he has to sent to Dorne (not to the Crownlands, not to the Stormlands, not to the Riverlands, not to Pentos) for more.   

Commodities like lemon juice and orange rinds are even easier to keep and preserve and transport over long distances.  Their availability in seaports, and elsewhere, is completely unremarkable.

[Mister Smikes]

4 hours ago, corbon said:

There is no 'sunlight problem', just a reading comprehension problem. Or more commonly, a 'seize on whatever half-truth can be found to support your point regardless of the actual data' problem - which anyone, including me, can be guilty of at times. 

 

Problem is, you are arguing against the author.  Where your reaction is "reading comprehension problem"; GRRM's reaction is "yes" and "very perceptive".   I wonder which one of you is right.  Probably you, I guess.

[corbon]

20 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

Problem is, you are arguing against the author. 

Nope. You conflate two different things.

Quote

Where your reaction is "reading comprehension problem";

Thats to 'sunlight being a problem' for raising a single tree in a "garden of the mighty".
As shown in the text, there is plenty of sunlight in Braavos, even in Autumn, despite "quotes" that say it is "only" foggy, raining or freezing rain. GRRM's characters misrepresent their surroundings in exactly the same human way that real people do, even as within the same breath they prove themselves wrong. The reading comprehension problem is failing to understand this and jumping on a partial quote without seeing it for what it is. 

And honestly, I don't really think it is a reading comprehension problem. Its far more likely IMO to be a laziness-in-constructing-arguments problem, which anyone can fall prey to, even if it seems to happen more often to some than others.

Quote

GRRM's reaction is "yes" and "very perceptive".   

He didn't say anything about the lack of sunlight making it impossible (as you implied). Just that its perceptive to otice that Lemon trees aren't really naturally suited to Braavos' foggy, cold climate..
And thats fine. I've agreed all along that they would be an exotic. But there is textual evidence for the gardens and grounds of the mighty in Braavos to have exotics, as is common in analogous real world societies.  And the House with the Red Door is part of the 'mighty' - Willem Darry who lives in it consorts (at least once) with the Sealord himself.

20 minutes ago, Mister Smikes said:

 I wonder which one of you is right.  Probably you, I guess.

Both, I expect, in this case. My argument and GRRMs statements are perfectly compatible.

[Mister Smikes]

15 minutes ago, corbon said:

As shown in the text, there is plenty of sunlight in Braavos,

LOL yes,  There is "plenty" of sunlight in Braavos.  It probably amounts to dozens of hours of direct sunlight per year.  Who knows?  Perhaps even a few hundred hours per year.  Hey, at a stretch it might even a a THOUSAND hours per year.  No problem for lemons.  GRRM is clearly wrong to say there is a discrepancy.   You've clearly got him cornered, what with combing through the text and finding a handful of references to direct sunlight.

[Mister Smikes]

3 hours ago, Walda said:

@Mister Smikes I think this is the quote you are relying on for your interpretation of the Braavosi climate.

The day looked to be a rare one, crisp and clear and bright. Braavos only had three kinds of weather; fog was bad, rain was worse, and freezing rain was worst. But every so often would come a morning when the dawn broke pink and blue and the air was sharp and salty.

(AFfC Ch 24 Cat of the Canals)

It is not describing what Braavos is like in the summer. Arya can't comment on that.

Braavos was called the Secret City in part because its frequent fog and cloud cover made it invisible to Valyrian dragonriders.  That would not have been much use, if it did not operate in the summer as well.  But maybe GRRM was being hyperbolic about that too.

Quote

Even on the miserable autumn weather of Braavos. "Three types of weather" is hyperbolic, contradicted by the "rare fine morning" (which I note is also a cold one) that Cat is actually experiencing at the time.

LOL no.  You can't trust that hyperbolic GRRM.  When he says that fine mornings are rare, he actually means they are very common.   

He says nothing about sunny days though.  It seems to be morning and evenings when the sun peaks in underneath the clouds.

Quote

That description is not unlike a description of autumn weather in London, or Bruges.

LOL yes.  Because London was famously known as the Secret City, because German Zeppelins could never find it, because of its near-constant fog and cloud cover.

Quote

But the wan sun that shows half a minute here and there while you are too busy to notice actually adds up to a couple of hours most days,

LOL, really??  Two whole hours of sunlight per day??? You'd better take your lemon trees indoors.  They might get sunburn.

Quote

This "only three types" comment is not all we know of Braavosi weather. On the night Cat met Sam

(AFfC Ch 26 Samwell III)

Blind Beth doesn't notice any rain when she goes to Pyntos, and if the cat saw any fog when it followed her home, she doesn't say.

In the week she follows the man she is giving the gift to, a puddle is mentioned, but no actual rain or fog. On the day itself

It's really sad that you could not find any references to direct sunlight.   I actually did find one or two.

Quote

(ADwD, Ch 64 The Ugly Little Girl)

When at last day came to Braavos, it came grey and dark and overcast. The girl had hoped for fog, but the gods ignored her prayers as gods so often did. The air was clear and cold, and the wind had a nasty bite to it.

Cloud cover, with no fog or rain. No actually witnessed freezing fog at all.

LOL, I get what you are saying.  GRRM is wrong to say there are only 3 types of weather.  There are actually 5 types of weather. Fog, Rain, Freezing Rain, and Completely Overcast Days.  And a (rare) day when you get a couple of hours of sunlight peaking under the cloud cover in the mornings and evenings.  No problem at all for Lemons.  And obviously GRRM is being hyperbolic when he says those days are rare.  There must be at least 1 day a week, with at least 2 hours of sunlight each.  That adds up to a whole 104 hours of sunlight per year.   Maybe EVEN MORE for all I know.  Ha ha ha.  Brilliant.

[Daeron the Daring]

9 hours ago, ATaleofSalt&Onions said:

Why do you always think everyone who doesn't find your theories convincing is angry?

It's a defensive method from his side. 

9 hours ago, alienarea said:

There the speculation starts.

It surely is a speculation, but one can assume there were people around a highborn pregnant lady. I assume the three kingsguard didn't really help in that way. They were knights, sworn brothers to protect, etc., they hardly had to cook or do the homework. There had to be people who had to take care of the entire 'household'. Rhaegar, Lyanna and the 3 KG, I mean. Considering Rhaegar might have known the place before (for various reasons), we can assume there were a few around, or brang there for that purpose. And Ned still had to have some people who destroyed the Tower. 

It's speculation, but a safe one, I guess. 

[Mister Smikes]

And of course it is a well known fact that, in Medieval times, in the city of London, residents would grow entire forests of lemon trees, indoors, using their medieval sunlamps, and would place them outside during the summer months, on their balconies.  And that's with 1650 hours of sunlight per year.  And as everyone know, if you only grow a SINGLE lemon tree, you need far less sun.  Yup.  I think we got GURM cornered.  He'll have to forget that climate discrepancy nonsense now.

[Walda]

1 hour ago, Mister Smikes said:

because German Zeppelins could never find it

Actually, there were plenty of zepplins raids cancelled due to fog and cloud cover. The Germans avoided moonlit nights because they could be seen. Their first couple of attacks were on a couple of sea side resorts on the coast near London, in the winter. It was a couple of weeks before summer that they launched the first attack on London. They couldn't control their course or that of their bombs that precisely. They missed St Pauls, for example.  By autumn, the British government had got together blackout plans to make it harder for them. They also drained the lake in St James park so the Zeps couldn't identify Buckingham Palace. 

So yes, I think the fog did make it harder for the German pilots to find London. Even though they knew how to navigate by the stars, and also exactly where it ought to be, and had maps of it, and had kings of it and all.

I don't think you are claiming that fog was all that kept Braavos hidden for 100 years?

Given its proximity to Lorath and the size of its lagoon ... I can't help thinking that it wouldn't be too hard to spot from dragonback on one of those rare autumn days.

I guess Lorath became part of the freehold after Braavos was established, because a dragonrider following his ship up or down the coast from Lorah to Pentos (or even a captain who wanted to map the coastline to avoid wrecking his ship), would have noticed those deep natural harbors, sheltered from the awful winter storms.

I suppose Braavos might have been established in a winter when the white walkers were active and the weather was really awful and Lorath was a pokey little free-folk village the Valyrians were not interested in, and the owners who noticed their slaves gone figured they would have frozen to death on the road to Lorath anyway, and nobody in their right mind would sail a ship past Pentos what with the storms and the ice. 

I guess Thenn is also a place that could have done a reveal when they realised how much trade they were losing by not being on the map.

Personally, I think it would take more than fog to deter the Valyrians if they were bent on destruction - I mean, Ny Sar.

[Ran]

Between the glass gardens, the Sealord's menagerie, the added detail in Jonathan Robert's map in which George directed him to include a wooded isle off the Sealord's Palace, and Samwell giving us his quote about the courts of the mighty, George is clearly preparing people to learn more about the time in Braavos and perhaps a role for the Dornish in the sojourn there. It's perceptive for someone to realize that Daenerys and Viserys were in Braavos under the protection of someone powerful and mighty specifically because of the lemon tree. 

 

[The Wondering Wolf]

54 minutes ago, Ran said:

Between the glass gardens, the Sealord's menagerie, the added detail in Jonathan Robert's map in which George directed him to include a wooded isle off the Sealord's Palace, and Samwell giving us his quote about the courts of the mighty, George is clearly preparing people to learn more about the time in Braavos and perhaps a role for the Dornish in the sojourn there. It's perceptive for someone to realize that Daenerys and Viserys were in Braavos under the protection of someone powerful and mighty specifically because of the lemon tree. 

 

Come on, that's not how it works. You have to include at least one baby swap, one fake death and one Citadel conspiracy!

[Mister Smikes]

4 hours ago, Walda said:

Actually, there were plenty of zepplins raids cancelled due to fog and cloud cover. 

LOL.  You got me.  Clearly London is twice as foggy as Braavos, and GRRM is wrong to think there is a climate discrepancy.