Aussies and NZers: Jabs, Jobs and (grounded) Jets

[Jeor]

My only political hope is that with 18 months to go, Perrottet may yet flame out (especially if the COVID-19 cases explode after a very loose reopening) and there might be the slightest chance he goes before the next election - with a Rob Stokes or someone else coming in to repair the damage. But I doubt it.

[Paxter]

18 minutes ago, Jeor said:

My only political hope is that with 18 months to go, Perrottet may yet flame out (especially if the COVID-19 cases explode after a very loose reopening) and there might be the slightest chance he goes before the next election - with a Rob Stokes or someone else coming in to repair the damage. But I doubt it.

I think you’re stuck with him :P. 

[karaddin]

Yeah a hard right leader isn't going to go even if they're destroying the party. I think your best bet, assuming he continues how he's started, is actually a Campbell Newman style massive blow out rejecting it followed by the remnants pulling their heads out of their asses. Of course the problem with that is the ones that are the biggest problem are often the ones in safer seats who are the ones left afterwards.

[Stubby]

Perrotet needs a nickname.

I propose:

1. Prayertit
2. If Scott Morrison = ScoMo then Domenic Perrotet = DoPe.

[Castellan]

On 10/4/2021 at 8:53 PM, Jeor said:

Jacinda Ardern has apparently now abandoned the elimination strategy with cases in Auckland still stubbornly persisting.

Just goes to show you that with Delta, I think it's really just a matter of luck (QLD having been lucky so far). I know people question NSW's methods as they took a little too long to lock down, but we're seeing places like Victoria, the ACT and New Zealand all undergo 7+ weeks of strict lockdowns and they're still unable to stamp out Delta. So I think to some extent that shows how little control we have over the virus.

Its clearly a lot more infectious strain, and once its out there it cannot be stamped out. But it would surely be moving a lot more quickly if we did not have rules in place.

I have to think that had the Federal (Australian) government been able to source vaccine while lockdowns were working to contain the earlier strain, then we would be very well placed now.

I have not bothered to really inquire whether it was their failure or just Australia's objective situation with little negotiation power that meant we did not get enough, so I am not saying it is their fault. But I get a definite sense of relief that they can now get away with characterising lockdowns as a mistake.

 

 

 

[karaddin]

1 hour ago, Stubby said:

Perrotet needs a nickname.

I propose:

1. Prayertit
2. If Scott Morrison = ScoMo then Domenic Perrotet = DoPe.

I like to refer to him as "the noted dipshit". Can't even remember where I started it from.

[Paxter]

12 hours ago, Castellan said:

I have not bothered to really inquire whether it was their failure or just Australia's objective situation with little negotiation power that meant we did not get enough, so I am not saying it is their fault. But I get a definite sense of relief that they can now get away with characterising lockdowns as a mistake.

It was a deliberate approach to go with AstraZeneca (locally produced) and not do big early deals with the US pharma companies. 

Trudeau took the opposite approach here and did deals with everyone: Pfizer, Moderna, J&J, Nova, AstraZeneca. As a result, Canada got to 70% first dose back in June, 70% fully vacced in August. An expensive choice, but it paid off. 

ETA: As for nicknames, I'm sticking with Perignon. Maybe he will fall victim to a bottle of grog, like one of his predecessors.

[Paxter]

Interesting move by DoPe (one for you Stubbs) to bring in Coutts-Trotter (Plibs’ husband) as head of the Premier’s Department. 

Maybe another sign that he won’t be that bad? Coutts-Trotter is a good guy. 

[The Anti-Targ]

Am I seeing things right? I saw what I thought is a photo of Perrotet, but I heard he's 39. The photo looks like someone closer to 50. I had way more grey hair then Perrotet at 39, but then I had way more grey hair at 29 than Perrotet does at 39. So it's not the grey, per se.

I hope the COVID-19 changes that have been made don't lead to a case blow out, but I fear it will.

[The Marquis de Leech]

A muppet has got the plague into Northland. The province is going into Level 3, and given that the muppet is proving uncooperative with contact tracers, I'd place money on this being yet another gang connection.

Northland (esp Northland Maori) has terrible vaccination rates. Far worse than Auckland or the Waikato.

[The Anti-Targ]

Northland has the lowest vaccination rate in the country.

What I find interesting about this person who took the plague to the north is that she went to the extent of falsifying essential travel documentation to get out of Auckland, but she still had some sense of responsibility by going to get tested, when she felt a bit ill I suppose. Though maybe her gang associates in Northland, knowing that it's doing the rounds in their community, made her go and get tested.

Unfortunate timing for my sister. She just had her last day at her job up north on Tuesday and just got confirmed in a new job in Thames on Monday, and now lockdown. I imagine she will get an essential travel pass since she will have to leave her rental unit soon. Still getting a moving company in was going to be a bit tricky before the lockdown, probably going to be even more of a pain now.

Silver lining to the Waikato and Northland cases is that vaccination rates have shot up again from a low of 7.000 per day up to 19,000 today for first jabs, and 62,000 got their second jab today. We're at 68% of the total population with a first jab now. That is starting to look very respectable.

Effectively half of the North Island is now back in level 3 lockdown, and I will be very surprised if the cases don't move south and reach Wellington by the end of October or early November. If Wellington is lucky it will hit 90% of eligible people with a first jab before it reaches the city, which might mean the govt doesn't put Wellington into level 3. I think the government wants a poster child of the rewards that are available to a community if it has a high vaccination rate. If there can be a non-locked down enclave in the country because it has a high vaccination rate that will do a lot to incentivize people in the rest of the country to get on with hitting that 90%. Wellington's first jab vaccination rate for the eligible population is 85% (or near enough). It only needs another 20,250 people to get their first jab and it will be at 90%, if it can do 2,025 people a day it can get to 90% in 10 days.

[The Marquis de Leech]

At the risk of being a tad selfish... can the Government please make an effort to keep it out of the South Island? If nothing else, it'll free up resources to help Auckland.

[Jeor]

6 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Am I seeing things right? I saw what I thought is a photo of Perrotet, but I heard he's 39. The photo looks like someone closer to 50. I had way more grey hair then Perrotet at 39, but then I had way more grey hair at 29 than Perrotet does at 39. So it's not the grey, per se.

I hope the COVID-19 changes that have been made don't lead to a case blow out, but I fear it will.

Yes, Perrottet does not look like he's 39. I would have put him at about 50 based on just the photos. 

Re: Coutts-Trotter, he's an old hand in the public service and a fairly sensible one. But public servants act on government orders, if they're serving an ideological leader there isn't really much they can do to moderate them.

[The Anti-Targ]

A good public servant implements government policy, but also gives free and frank advice on the pros and cons, but but does not try to change the government's policy.

[The Anti-Targ]

Interesting developments in the saga of the woman who falsified documents and traveled north, with COVID-19. She is a sex worker, and while sex work is legal in NZ clearly her client list is not something she wants to hand over to even health authorities, given she may well have clients who do not want it getting out that they are using her services. Hence being handed over to the police to interview her to try to track down where she's been and with whom.

Not part of the criminal scene, but criminal adjacent, and in a profession that has an uneasy time with the law and anything to do with the govt.

A sex worker also traveled to Wellington using false documentation to get out of Auckland in September. Lucky she is only facing charges of leaving Auckland, and she did not have COVID-19. But it feels like it;s only a matter of time.

[Impmk2]

Gl to Sydneysiders today! I am still pretty concerned with the accelerated reopening, but with very high vaccination rates just around the corner I'm really hoping it'll work out.

[The Anti-Targ]

42 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

Gl to Sydneysiders today! I am still pretty concerned with the accelerated reopening, but with very high vaccination rates just around the corner I'm really hoping it'll work out.

What's a very high vaccination rate? Our modellers are saying 85% of the total population is reasonably protective. How far away is that for Sydney/NSW?

[Skyrazer]

It was planned that things till start to reopen at 70% which NSW hit last week. Numbers have also been trending downward, so will be interesting to see where things go for NSW from here. The state will crack 80% pretty soon as well.

I hope it goes well because if it doesn't, you can bet that here in Vic, they'll be pushing the lockdown to beyond the current planned 70% as a result.

[The Anti-Targ]

According to our modellers, 70% is way too low to prevent a massive infection spike and hospitalisations that stretch the health system and a lot of preventable death. Even 80% is going to not be great. But when the numbers start to grow, perhaps that will scare a lot of people who were not planing to get vaccinated into going out and getting the jab. A rather grim cloud to attain that silver lining though.

[Paxter]

It’s pretty much impossible to get to 85% of the total population vacced with 5-11 year olds scoped out. But that will probably change soon, allowing many jurisdictions to get north of 85%.

NSW is currently at about 50% of the total population double vacced (70% of 16+). We opened up at a similar point here in Ontario and have not seen much of a difference in cases.