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Aussies and NZers: Jabs, Jobs and (grounded) Jets


Paxter

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7 hours ago, Paxter said:

The reaction back home is fairly muted. They are back to masks, but they only had a short break from those anyway. And supply chain issues were already a problem. 

Overall, they are ready for this. Borders are due to open soon and they are close to hitting the 90% double vacc for 12+. 

ETA: Actually I'm going to qualify the above to say that Perth Metro (where 80% of WA lives) is ready for this. Regional WA is a different kettle and outbreaks may have to be managed much more conservatively, as has happened in NT. 

Yep, it just slightly accelerates the timeline if it does get out of control. Will be interesting to see how McGowan handles this over the next couple weeks. I think regional vaccinations will massively pick up if (when) there's a big outbreak (as also happened in the NT!)

The selfish part of me just wants all the borders open and to be one country again. At the same time I bet there's a lot of very apprehensive people in WA right now.

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1 hour ago, Impmk2 said:

The selfish part of me just wants all the borders open and to be one country again. At the same time I bet there's a lot of very apprehensive people in WA right now.

Yeah my brother is having his first kid in a couple of weeks so I’d like to have the option of meeting her soon enough!

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On 1/17/2022 at 4:52 PM, The Marquis de Leech said:

The traditional grounds for overturning such decisions would be Illegality, Irrationality, and Procedural Impropriety. It's the last one that is relevant here - essentially making sure the minister took into account all relevant factors. Also note that overturning the decision simply sends the matter back to the minister, to be decided again, properly this time. 

(I can't speak for Australia, but in New Zealand, it is very, very common for immigration cases to be subject to judicial review. Primarily because the stakes are so high for the individuals involved).

NZ government hasn't systematically attacked the rule of law while giving the relevant ministry greatly inflated powers as part of a "let's torture asylum seekers to deter others from cooking here" policy though. It's all tangled up with Dutton grabbing as much personal power as possible and he was openly contemptuous of judicial review and drove multiple rounds of legislative change.

I'm not even close to a lawyer, but my understanding of what was actually the bar in this case was "is the justification submitted by the Minister hypothetically in the ball park of rational/logical, whether or not it looks like that justification is actually why he did it". And in the case of "Djokovic's continued presence, given his public statements and now documented cases of not complying with measures here and in Europe, may encourage others to not follow public health directives". Which may or may not be accurate, but is a logically cohesive concern, even if we all know it's got jack shit to do with the minister's actual motives.

ETA: And just to be clear, I think this is bad and just one of many examples of why it needs to be changed. Its just the only decision I think the justices could make under the current law.

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Honestly, I think NZ and Aus should deny Visas to any prominent individual who is unvaxed unless they submit a credible medical exemption which meets the medical exemption criteria of Aus/NZ. At least in the case of NZ our borders remain closed to almost every non-citizen/resident, so performers, sport's people, actors etc are coming here by special privilege anyway, so vax should be the default. Maybe less justification for tat policy for Aus with omicron running wild.

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But if that's our policy we need to be up front about it being the policy. We should not be giving a nudge nudge wink wink bullshit exemption only to renege because our party in government gets a whiff of political advantage out of it.

If we're not going to let them in, don't say we will accept the exemption in the first place.

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Unless they can get their current small (but accelerating) omicron outbreak under control, which I think will be difficult short of a lockdown, this will only buy them a few replication cycles. So 1-2 weeks maybe.

If they do get the current outbreak under control they're inbetween a rock and a hard place. If they wait until they get a high % boosted it'll be near winter and the eldest most vulnerable cohort,  many of whom are already boosted, will be waning. They really need to get their hospital system sorted with the time this buys, along with a big supply of RATs. Difficult to see the former happening, the latter, as global supply issues ease, maybe.

Even the AMA doesn't seem impressed by this decision.

 

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3 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

Unless they can get their current small (but accelerating) omicron outbreak under control, which I think will be difficult short of a lockdown, this will only buy them a few replication cycles. So 1-2 weeks maybe.

If they do get the current outbreak under control they're inbetween a rock and a hard place. If they wait until they get a high % boosted it'll be near winter and the eldest most vulnerable cohort,  many of whom are already boosted, will be waning. They really need to get their hospital system sorted with the time this buys, along with a big supply of RATs. Difficult to see the former happening, the latter, as global supply issues ease, maybe.

Even the AMA doesn't seem impressed by this decision.

 

I don't know. I'd rather be in Western Australia at the moment than here in Eastern Plague Land. Though I am sad for my sister who had made plans to visit her son in WA next month.

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I just don't really see what the long term plan is here. A month delay to get another 30% boosted and sort out RAT supply sure. But after that gains will become minimal, you start entering the times of the year where the health system comes under strain anyway, and eventually it'll leak through. It just doesn't seem at all sustainable.

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The WA Health Minister has stated that the state is now moving to a suppression strategy, give that the current omicron outbreak won't be eliminated. One wonders if the borders policy will be reconsidered, but I doubt it (having already reversed once, may be minimal benefit in changing course again). 

NZ on the other hand is heading into lockdown-lite (joining forces with us Ontarians!)

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Western Australia had a good run, but it looks like they've got an outbreak on their hands that is going to be hard to control. In the end, this might be a blessing in disguise for McGowan. If he had to choose a reopening date before any outbreak occurred, a section of the WA community would have blamed him for capitulating to the virus and letting it in. But as it is, it's gotten out into the community and depending on how widespread it becomes (other states don't give a promising view of WA's future) no one can blame McGowan for opening once it's already in WA. As it is, he'll always reap the reputational rewards of being the last man standing.

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5 hours ago, Paxter said:

The WA Health Minister has stated that the state is now moving to a suppression strategy, give that the current omicron outbreak won't be eliminated. One wonders if the borders policy will be reconsidered, but I doubt it (having already reversed once, may be minimal benefit in changing course again). 

NZ on the other hand is heading into lockdown-lite (joining forces with us Ontarians!)

Very lite indeed. Life will be pretty much normal for the vaxed and the kiddies in terms of everyday activity. Schools are even looking to be opening as normal (though I'm sure that might be the first hing to change if things go very badly). The unvaxed will see their options a bit more limited than they already are. Events of substantial size will be significantly affected, though sports will not doubt go ahead with perhaps very limited and vax only crowds. Indeed making sports attendance for vaxed only people might push some people to get vaxed.

A work conference I was intending to go to in Feb is almost certain to be postponed as attendance is expected to be above the maximum permitted for gatherings and conferences even for vaxed people. But my sons and niece and nephews are still, at this stage, going to have a cousins weekend in Queenstown in Feb.

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Got some cheap laughs this week out of an article on the local monument all Perth people love to hate: the Bell Tower.

Two quotes had me laughing, one from the ALP Federal MP:

Quote

“I’m not a fan of the Bell Tower, but I wouldn’t knock it down.

“I think you leave the Bell Tower there as a reminder of what happens when Perth does something that’s a little bit piss-weak.

Second from the Mayor, Basil Zempilas:

Quote

“If there was a way to double or triple the size, then I would love to see that looked at,” Mr Zempilas said.

Because yeah...we just need to make it BIGGER! That will fix it. 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Now that was fucking cool. Five Libs cross the floor to amend the package of discrimination law reforms to protect trans students! 

The Christian lobby is now asking ScoMo to withdraw the government’s own reforms. Brilliant.

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I guess the theory is that (small l) liberals should be all about protecting individual rights, which would include preventing discrimination, and also such liberals should be all about self-determination. I guess not all Liberals are liberals.

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5 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess the theory is that (small l) liberals should be all about protecting individual rights, which would include preventing discrimination, and also such liberals should be all about self-determination. I guess not all Liberals are liberals.

A clever marketing move by Menzies to use that word for his Conservative party…

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