Aussies and NZers: Jabs, Jobs and (grounded) Jets

[Skyrazer]

3 hours ago, karaddin said:

She seemed pretty genuinely upset though, I don't think she wanted to go. Or maybe she just knows that if noted dipshit Perrottet gets the job he's going to get a bunch of people killed when its getting so close to enough vaccinations.

Probably right in that she genuinely doesn't want to leave, I just find it somewhat surprising that she just up and outs as soon as ICAC look in her direction. She's decently popular and the timing is about as bad as you can get. I would think she would atleast hang around until vax rates hit targets and the pandemic starts to come under control and restrictions are eased before hitting the eject button.

The situation is sorta similar to O'Farrell's undoing in that he was pretty popular as well (from what I remember), but as soon as the thank you letter turned up, he instantly hits the exit without any resistance at all.

[karaddin]

Yeah it does seem very sudden. In her case maybe she agreed with the assessment that she was going to get knifed anyway and just CBF fighting any further.

[Jeor]

This is the third Liberal Premier that the NSW ICAC has taken down (Greiner in the more distant past). Despite that pretty dismal record for the Libs, you have to give credit to O'Farrell and Gladys for copping it pretty square on the chin and leaving without major angst. Both were very popular and probably would have survived in the court of public opinion - it's pretty rare in politics for people to go quietly like this.

It does make me wonder whether Gladys does actually have something to hide and whether some juicier revelations are set to hit the news cycle. While I can see what previous posts mean when they say that this may have been an "easy" way out for her (given the immense workload and criticism she has copped), I don't think it's quite right. Apart from her statement which says she really didn't want to go, if you were picking a departure time and a reason to go, she could simply have left at the end of the year once the reopening had occurred and the "COVID crisis" was dealt with (at least for now). To use ICAC as an excuse to go (and therefore really stuffing your reputation) strikes me as a bit too weird.

I really liked Gladys and I'll be sad to see her go, I just hope that for her sake this isn't because some actual corrupt behaviour has taken place.

Taking a step back, for the Coalition in NSW I think the party as a whole has bizarrely benefited from these episodes. Unlike Labor, which had Bob Carr for 10 years and then a random succession of small-time, flash in the pan premiers who knifed each other (Iemma for three years, Rees for one, Keneally for one), the Libs have had a slightly steadier rate with "peaceful" transitions - O'Farrell for 3, Baird for 3, Gladys for 4.5.

All three were considered competent and popular and left before things really soured on them, which means the Libs have had resets every election cycle. Before you know it, they've been in power for over a decade and yet things still seem pretty fresh with a new leader. In contrast to Labor all three Liberal premiers also left of their own accord and without party infighting challenges, which I think makes a big difference to the public perception.

While the money seems Perrotet, I think Rob Stokes is a darkhorse. The moderate faction typically chooses the Premier which could give Stokes a leg up. Stokes also has runs on the board in a few important portfolios (Environment, Education, Planning).

[Skyrazer]

Will be very interesting see what comes out of the investigation. It does cause one to suspect that there may actually be skeletons in the closet given the abrupt nature of her departure.

[The Anti-Targ]

I guess Sco-Mo has just decreed that Australia will be awash in COVID-19 before the end of the year. With vaccination rates not nearly high enough to prevent a lot more deaths. What proportion of people who qualify for home quarantine will actually comply?

[ithanos]

I thought Gladys handled the first pandemic outbreak in NSW in 2020 very well (after the Ruby Princess debacle subsided). The Delta outbreak, however, has been challenging to say the least. The timing of the resignation is a little baffling, with the state navigating various levels of restrictions and heading into the long weekend. I'm not familiar with her rise to Premier but a lot of what I've read suggests she's been a dedicated politician working for her state - so how serious is the ICAC investigation? And my second question to that, as someone unfamiliar with the history of the commission, how are the ICAC viewed and to what measures or standards must they set for themselves to run a fair investigation.

Looking broader I read Palaszczuk took the opportunity to slam Berejiklian's slow response to delta, '8 days to respond' in an address a couple days ago. Petty political points I thought, but leading up to today she's playing a dangerous game of wait and see with South West Queensland's controlled outbreak. The NRL (and other sporting bodies) sure have some sway.  

9 hours ago, Paxter said:

So ICAC is officially investigating Berejiklian over possible misconduct relating to her now disgraced bf and former MP Daryl McGuire. I have a feeling she will live to fight another day…but then again we did once lose a NSW Premier over a bottle of Grange.

Your reputation precedes you. Asking for a friend, who's your call for the NRL grand final this Sunday, Rabbitohs by +2.5 or Panthers -2.5?

[Paxter]

7 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

How are things vax wise? The BWB folks I'm friends on facebook with had their shots but that is an incredible pro-vax bubble obviously.

Australia will I think be one of the most vaccinated countries by the end of the year. Adult take up in NSW, the most populous state, is already at nearly 88% (first dose) despite well documented mRNA supply issues.

As a comparison, my home province of Ontario is sitting at around 86.5% of adults vaccinated. And we haven’t had supply issues here since June.

[Paxter]

40 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess Sco-Mo has just decreed that Australia will be awash in COVID-19 before the end of the year. With vaccination rates not nearly high enough to prevent a lot more deaths. What proportion of people who qualify for home quarantine will actually comply?

I think given it’s vaccinated passengers only who will qualify for home quarantine, I doubt it will make much difference to the current caseload of about 2k cases per day.

There are very few cases being detected daily in hotel quarantine ATM.

[Paxter]

Triple post but…Penrith all the way!

[Impmk2]

8 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess Sco-Mo has just decreed that Australia will be awash in COVID-19 before the end of the year. With vaccination rates not nearly high enough to prevent a lot more deaths. What proportion of people who qualify for home quarantine will actually comply?

What's being missed in the international reporting I've seen is that most of the state premiers are very much not on board, and as always they're the ones that matter. Sure NSW and Victoria will probably be open to international travel, but given their caseloads additional covid will be a drop in the bucket. The rest of Australia, sure you'll be able to travel via NSW or Vic, but you'll still need to navigate any internal border restrictions too. Could very soon be easier to travel from Sydney to London, than Sydney to Perth.

[karaddin]

5 hours ago, Impmk2 said:

What's being missed in the international reporting I've seen is that most of the state premiers are very much not on board, and as always they're the ones that matter. Sure NSW and Victoria will probably be open to international travel, but given their caseloads additional covid will be a drop in the bucket. The rest of Australia, sure you'll be able to travel via NSW or Vic, but you'll still need to navigate any internal border restrictions too. Could very soon be easier to travel from Sydney to London, than Sydney to Perth.

Which fits with Qantas dropping the East Coast->London via Perth route for the time being. 

[Jeor]

Sydney and Melbourne were always going to be key cities (and therefore NSW/VIC key states) for opening up internationally. Both will do so before the end of the year for sure. SA has also been trialling the home quarantine, so it's possible they could open up too.

WA, QLD and possibly TAS will be the slowest. I'm not sure how many international flights Tasmania has anyway - I assume most of the flights in/out of Tassie are via Sydney or Melbourne. Perth loses the London route, which is a blow for them (I did think it was a bit weird for McGowan to complain about Qantas doing that when he was keeping the border shut anyway).

QLD will be interesting. Brisbane is a bona fide international route and once Sydney/Melbourne get going again, I don't know that it will be easy for Brisbane to lag behind.

 

[The Anti-Targ]

Read on the news that the US postal service is not sending mail to NZ or Aus for the time being because of a lack of transport options. Seems a bit sus, since we are still receiving imports of goods from the USA. I guess it's a cost thing really. I suppose when NSW and Vic open up for international travel USPS will hopefully start sending mail again.

[karaddin]

Well fuck. Perrottet has the numbers. 18 months is a lot of time for a hard right asshole to do some serious damage. I hope he can't attack abortion at least but I won't hold my breath, and I expect NSW will switch to "let it rip".

This is exactly why I didn't want Gladys to go even though I don't support her.

[Paxter]

10 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Read on the news that the US postal service is not sending mail to NZ or Aus for the time being because of a lack of transport options. Seems a bit sus, since we are still receiving imports of goods from the USA. I guess it's a cost thing really. I suppose when NSW and Vic open up for international travel USPS will hopefully start sending mail again.

When I travelled between Sydney and LA earlier this year, the American Airlines staff said that the main reason for the flight being on was freight. AA have since cut that flight due to ScoMo’s caps. So I’m not surprised at the prohibitively high freight costs right now.

Perrottet bleh. It does open the door slightly for NSW Labor though.

[Skyrazer]

Dang, looks like NSW Libs are imploding. What is that, like 5 resignations all of a sudden now?

[Paxter]

1 hour ago, Skyrazer said:

Dang, looks like NSW Libs are imploding. What is that, like 5 resignations all of a sudden now?

I thought it was just Gladys and Constance?

Barilaro is a Nat.

[ants]

On 10/1/2021 at 7:40 PM, Jeor said:

.....

It does make me wonder whether Gladys does actually have something to hide and whether some juicier revelations are set to hit the news cycle. While I can see what previous posts mean when they say that this may have been an "easy" way out for her (given the immense workload and criticism she has copped), I don't think it's quite right. Apart from her statement which says she really didn't want to go, if you were picking a departure time and a reason to go, she could simply have left at the end of the year once the reopening had occurred and the "COVID crisis" was dealt with (at least for now). To use ICAC as an excuse to go (and therefore really stuffing your reputation) strikes me as a bit too weird.

......

I don't know if there is anything else, but what had already come out sounded pretty bad. As minister she ok'd projects that directly benefited her lover, and there are tapes making clear she had been told. Now, maybe she is totally truthful that she wasn't listening so didn't really know, but the whole point of being recusing yourself is you remove the possibility of corruption. As a minimum she didn't bother to clarify what her lover was doing and what she should recuse herself from, at worst she deliberately made decisions that benefited him.

It is totally appropriate that she should resign. 

[Skyrazer]

2 hours ago, Paxter said:

I thought it was just Gladys and Constance?

Barilaro is a Nat.

My bad, I only skimmed the news and thought I read like 5 ministers leaving. And I should've said "LNP".

Looks like it's just Barilaro and Constance going on top of Berejiklian.

[Jeor]

Well, the NSW Coalition is changing very quickly - Gladys may have been holding it together. Constance going is not a major surprise (given he already tried to enter Federal politics before and has solid regional voter support) but the timing of it is a bit opportunistic, I guess he didn't want to get drawn into the factional fights. Barilaro going is a bit more of a surprise.

Stokes is reportedly still stubbornly staying in the race so that there will be a real vote tomorrow between him and Perrottet (although it seems fairly clear that the latter has the numbers).

It seems that the Liberal bench is getting thin. When O'Farrell went, there was Baird, and when Baird went, there was Gladys. All three of them were fairly competent, generally moderate and sensible, and had broad electoral appeal.

However, with Perrottet they really are tacking to the right and going with a more political choice. This may be the time where the state Libs start to lose the plot. I would have much preferred they go with Rob Stokes who by all accounts is more of a moderate, but he doesn't have the numbers as the moderates are splintering whereas Perrottet has the right faction united behind him.