Aussies and NZers: Jabs, Jobs and (grounded) Jets

[Impmk2]

1 hour ago, The Anti-Targ said:

What's a very high vaccination rate? Our modellers are saying 85% of the total population is reasonably protective. How far away is that for Sydney/NSW?

NSW should around 75% of the total population (they're at about 91% of 16+ single jabbed at the moment). Sydney itself has generally been a bit higher than the state so might get towards 80%.

The oft cited modelling that Australia is using in its reopening roadmap goes for 80% of 16+ to start to limit the spread, but then also very heavily relys on good testing and contact tracing to shut down outbreaks, and targeted restrictions as needed (much like NSW did for the entirety of 2020). The latter is often forgotten when the roadmap is mentioned - contact tracing will be completely swamped at the current numbers.

[Paxter]

30 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

NSW should around 75% of the total population (they're at about 91% of 16+ single jabbed at the moment). Sydney itself has generally been a bit higher than the state so might get towards 80%.

NSW is 69% of the population single jabbed. Some way off 75% (about 400,000 jabs shy).

[Impmk2]

7 minutes ago, Paxter said:

NSW is 69% of the population single jabbed. Some way off 75% (about 400,000 jabs shy).

That sounds low to me? Australia as a whole is approx 68.5% total population single jabbed. And NSW is running ahead of the other jurisdictions 

[Paxter]

6 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

That sounds low to me? Australia as a whole is approx 68.5% total population single jabbed. And NSW is running ahead of the other jurisdictions 

You must be right, Australia as a whole is 69% and NSW is 72.6%. ACT is leading the pack at 77%.

Too many glasses of wine for me tonight!

ETA: My general point stands though - until 5-11s are eligible, no country can get well into the 85% range. It’s a lofty goal.

[karaddin]

I think a point of difference worth taking into account when comparing Aus modelling to NZ is that as a larger jurisdiction, particularly when you're considering Sydney, we have a lot more hospital and ICU capacity as well. If I'm remembering the numbers of NZ ICU beds it would potentially be crashed by relatively modest case numbers. As long as the case load is sufficiently throttled in NSW we should be able to look after people, especially as increasingly effective treatments come online (like that new one announced a week or two ago from Merck). I'd still prefer a more cautious approach, but I'm trying to see the half full side of the glass.

With the sharp drop off in cases here over the last week or two its looking pretty likely that either we've hit the vaccination point where contact tracing is able to get back on top of it, or this wave is burning itself out anyway.

[The Anti-Targ]

3 hours ago, karaddin said:

I think a point of difference worth taking into account when comparing Aus modelling to NZ is that as a larger jurisdiction, particularly when you're considering Sydney, we have a lot more hospital and ICU capacity as well. If I'm remembering the numbers of NZ ICU beds it would potentially be crashed by relatively modest case numbers. As long as the case load is sufficiently throttled in NSW we should be able to look after people, especially as increasingly effective treatments come online (like that new one announced a week or two ago from Merck). I'd still prefer a more cautious approach, but I'm trying to see the half full side of the glass.

With the sharp drop off in cases here over the last week or two its looking pretty likely that either we've hit the vaccination point where contact tracing is able to get back on top of it, or this wave is burning itself out anyway.

Reports are that on any given day NZ has 15-25 empty ICU beds. On a per capita basis Aus has 2.6x the total number if ICU beds (3.6 vs 9.4 / 100K), according to OECD info. So in theory the empty ICU beds rate for Aus should be about 195-325 across the whole country if baseline demand for ICU is roughly the same. I wouldn't say that's a hugely comfortable number to be relaxed about the system being able to cope with significant case rises, but it's certainly a lot less concerning than NZ. The OECD average is 12/100K so Aussie is a bit behind others. US and Canada are above average, England (not sure why they don't have UK) is just above AU.

With the sharp drop off it means current measures are working to keep the disease in check. But with the NSW govt removing most / all restrictions all bets are off, and you should expect cases to rise.

Great news for Wellington, 91% of the eligible population is 1st jabbed. But that is just for the city itself. The"health district" which covers 3 other cities roughly contiguous with Wellington, and a bit further up the west coast is less with an aggregate of still in the mid-80s.

Adverse event data for NZ:

20,584 Total adverse event reports

19,827 reports that were non-serious

7570 Total reports that were serious

Total vaccine doses administered (first+second doses): 5,832,278

Still only one death regarded as likely due to the vaccine, 27 remain under investigation.

 

[Impmk2]

The vaccination numbers in Canberra are seriously impressive. Near 98% of 12+ are now single jabbed. They should end up as one of the most vaccinated cities on the planet. Be very interesting to see what happens with their case numbers when they open.

For @The Anti-Targ - that's 81.2% of total population single jabbed (using reported vaccination numbers and latest official population estimate). I don't really think it's possible to get much higher than that at the moment without some weird population demographics.

[The Anti-Targ]

Interesting BBC article, only reading it on my phone so will see about linking it later, presents info suggesting a single jab only of Pfizer / Moderna may be sufficiently effective for teens and tweens that they could be regarded as fully vaccinated after 1 dose, and that because of the higher risk of myocarditis in males around that age after a 2nd dose the risk/reward for a second dose in males may indicate it is better to not give a second dose to males under 20. The risk-reward info only relates to that age group in terms of reduction in ICU and hospital admission vs myocarditis risk. So there isn't a more comprehensive analysis of the benefits to the overall population of having teens and tweens covered by the vaccine.

[The Anti-Targ]

17 minutes ago, Impmk2 said:

The vaccination numbers in Canberra are seriously impressive. Near 98% of 12+ are now single jabbed. They should end up as one of the most vaccinated cities on the planet. Be very interesting to see what happens with their case numbers when they open.

For @The Anti-Targ - that's 81.2% of total population single jabbed (using reported vaccination numbers and latest official population estimate). I don't really think it's possible to get much higher than that at the moment without some weird population demographics.

That makes Canberra a rather young population I think. Our calculation seems to be that if 95% of the 12+ population of NZ is jabbed that would equate to 85% of the total population and be very protective with only about 50 deaths per year, according to some modellers. I don't think it's possible for us to achieve that across the country (Wellington already being at 91% could get to that kind of rate, but it will be an outlier), so really to get to 85% total jabbed we need to bring in the 5-11 age group. And hopefully the vaccine will be assessed as safe for that age group soonish.

[Impmk2]

33 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

That makes Canberra a rather young population I think. Our calculation seems to be that if 95% of the 12+ population of NZ is jabbed that would equate to 85% of the total population and be very protective with only about 50 deaths per year, according to some modellers. I don't think it's possible for us to achieve that across the country (Wellington already being at 91% could get to that kind of rate, but it will be an outlier), so really to get to 85% total jabbed we need to bring in the 5-11 age group. And hopefully the vaccine will be assessed as safe for that age group soonish.

Ok I'm surprised at that - Canberra isn't really a place which I'd associate with a young population but I'm hardly a demographer.  Wikipedia says 18.7% <=14 years old which sounds approx right looking at the vaccination numbers vs total population.

ETA: But yes. Don't think 85% is realistic without the 5-11s as you and Paxter have mentioned.

Also worth mentioning on the Australian Government's official vaccine rollout report they just have >95% for a lot of Canberra's age groups. I think there's some level of fuzzyness in the population estimates (and probably even jabs given numbers) which gets obvious when you start getting close to 100%.

[Paxter]

Mardi Gras has been called off again. Bearing in mind that the parade is some five months away and presumably Sydney will be extremely well vaccinated by then.

And yet Perignon is happy for ten thousand to attend the Everest at lower vacc rates.

Great country this.

[The Anti-Targ]

I wonder if this has always been part of the industry, or if it's because there's less work in Auckland at the moment because of the prolonged lockdown.

https://www.nzherald.co.nz/nz/covid-19-delta-outbreak-auckland-sex-workers-caught-at-blenheim-motel-without-travel-exemptions/B4H4YHOOMIKGYOK3VGJBFDUVMY/

Quote

Covid-19 Delta outbreak: Auckland sex workers caught at Blenheim motel without travel exemptions

In recent weeks we've had sex workers from Auckland travelling to Northland, Wellington and now into the South Island.

Once again refusal to cooperate with tracking movement. Hopefully Blenheim dodges a bullet and these individuals test negative.

It is also clear that the so-called border around Auckland is no kind of barrier to anyone determined to get through.

No wonder the government is rapidly retreating from any pretence of control and is actively preparing the country for significant spread. The Health Minister has just come out and said our hospital system is well prepared for an increase in cases (bullshit, not at the current level of vaccination if there is significant spread it isn't). The COVID response minister has seemingly ruled out Auckland ever going back into a "circuit-breaker" level 4 lockdown. The South Island is being told that they can't expect to be free of it for long.

It all feels like the govt has a date in mind to permanently remove lockdowns as a response option to the disease and they are just trying to max out vaccinations before that date. Not sure whether that secret date is this year or early next.

[Impmk2]

2300 cases in Melbourne today. Fuck.

[Impmk2]

4 hours ago, Paxter said:

And yet Perignon is happy for ten thousand to attend the Everest at lower vacc rates.

Great country this.

Probably more concerned with Melbourne cup plans at the moment. Not sure how they can plan on opening up with the numbers still increasing as they are. Hospital system won't cope.

Melbourne really does seem to get the raw end of the stick this pandemic.

[Paxter]

Pathetic:

Quote

More than 83% of over-16s have received one shot among the broader population, while the figure is just 57.5% among Indigenous people.

Is anyone in government actually going to pull their finger out of their arse and fix this? Aboriginal people should have been at the forefront of this vaccine rollout. 

Pretty disgusting.

[The Marquis de Leech]

If this is allowed into the South Island by Government muppetry, we are going to be bloody furious.

On the bright side: it seems to have been purged out of Hamilton, thank goodness. And a large proportion of today's cases were children (in-family transfer). And it seems to be holding steady in South Auckland. The current increase is coming out of West Auckland.

 

[The Marquis de Leech]

10 hours ago, Paxter said:

Pathetic:

Is anyone in government actually going to pull their finger out of their arse and fix this? Aboriginal people should have been at the forefront of this vaccine rollout. 

Pretty disgusting.

Are those low rates come from geographical inaccessibility or because individuals themselves reject the vaccine?

[The Anti-Targ]

I guess it depends what counts as muppetry. I imagine that once the govt decides NZ is vaccinated enough (or has had long enough that everyone wanting to be vaccinated is vaccinated), it will simply remove any travel restrictions at least for the doubly vaxxed, and forgo any further pretext of trying to confine the virus. Thus some doubly vaxxed people will unwittingly transport the virus to the South Island. Unless the Interislander and Blue-bridge both have no vax no sail policies then even the unvaxed will be able to freely get across the water, even if Jet* and AirNZ implement a vaxed only policy for internal flights. My guess is it will be there, at least in pockets, in time for Christmas.

[Paxter]

5 hours ago, The Marquis de Leech said:

Are those low rates come from geographical inaccessibility or because individuals themselves reject the vaccine?

Why give the Feds and States any excuses? They have had loads of time (around a year) to deal with both:

1. Geographical accessibility - by giving local community-controlled health organizations in regional and remote Australia reliable and early vaccine supplies
2. Community hesitancy - by funding and empowering local organizations to inform Aboriginal communities of the benefits of vaccine take-up

On the first point, let's not forget that most Aboriginal people live in major cities and well-populated regions. Only about 20% of Aboriginal people live in remote areas, where geographical access is a problem. 

I'll give the Canadian example as a point of contrast - by May 2021, 75% of First Nations and Inuit adults had already had their first jab. That is higher than was achieved for the non-Indigenous community at the same time, which didn't hit 75% until June. 

Again. Pathetic, Australia. 

2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I guess it depends what counts as muppetry. I imagine that once the govt decides NZ is vaccinated enough (or has had long enough that everyone wanting to be vaccinated is vaccinated), it will simply remove any travel restrictions at least for the doubly vaxxed, and forgo any further pretext of trying to confine the virus. Thus some doubly vaxxed people will unwittingly transport the virus to the South Island. Unless the Interislander and Blue-bridge both have no vax no sail policies then even the unvaxed will be able to freely get across the water, even if Jet* and AirNZ implement a vaxed only policy for internal flights. My guess is it will be there, at least in pockets, in time for Christmas.

This is where McGowan is heading over in WA. He is already flagging some baseline rules (mask-wearing - which is not a thing in WA) and lower stadium/concert capacities once the borders are open from around February. 

[Wall Flower]

Apparently I missed the announcement of Perrottet being declared PM of Australia and therefore authorised to unilaterally open international borders without quarantine regulations and with no reference to the national plan or national cabinet. If people want to know why Canberra is soon to be the most vaccinated city in the world, take a look at what we're surrounded by.