US Politics: A Game of Chicken (with Constituents lives)

[DMC]

6 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

Manchin and Sinema are acting like they won't do it through reconciliation--I think it fuels the narrative of a broken Democratic party.

Manchin, at least, clearly has no problem with Dems raising the debt ceiling via reconciliation.  In fact it sounds like that's exactly what he wants:

Quote

Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) said on Monday that Democrats should raise the debt ceiling through reconciliation if they have to, ruling out nixing the legislative filibuster to do so.  

“They shouldn’t rule out anything. We just can’t let the debt ceiling lapse. We just can’t,” Manchin told reporters, asked about Democratic leadership ruling out using reconciliation, a budget process that lets them bypass the filibuster, to increase the nation’s borrowing limit. 

Asked if he was saying Democratic leadership should raise the debt ceiling under reconciliation, Manchin added: “Whatever they have to do, absolutely.”  

 

[Martell Spy]

Federal judge blocks enforcement of Texas abortion law
The judge was acting on a lawsuit brought by the Biden administration.

https://www.politico.com/news/2021/10/06/texas-abortion-law-court-515526

Quote

 

A federal judge has blocked the new Texas law that uses the prospect of private lawsuits to enforce a ban on abortions after about six weeks of pregnancy.

Acting on a suit brought by the Biden administration, U.S. District Court Judge Robert Pitman issued a preliminary injunction on Wednesday evening that immediately forbids Texas state court judges and clerks to accept suits under the law, known as S.B. 8.

“Despite the State’s attempts to obscure the question … people seeking abortions face irreparable harm when they are unable to access abortions; these individuals are entitled to access to abortions under the U.S. Constitution; S.B. 8 prevents access to abortion; a preliminary injunction will allow — at least for some subset of affected individuals — abortions to proceed that otherwise would not have,” Pitman wrote in his 113-page ruling.

The judge said he was particularly troubled by the design of the Texas statute, which was crafted to make it difficult for abortion rights advocates to challenge because of the lack of direct enforcement by state officials or prosecutors.

“Above all, it is the intentional design of the law by state actors for the chief purpose of avoiding judicial review that sets it apart — and makes it particularly likely to be appropriate for this Court to enjoin,” wrote Pitman, an appointee of President Barack Obama based in Austin, Texas.

 

 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

2 hours ago, DMC said:

Manchin, at least, clearly has no problem with Dems raising the debt ceiling via reconciliation.  In fact it sounds like that's exactly what he wants:

 

I guess it's just Sinema. But reading his quote about "whatever it takes" and now opposing the filibuster in the debt ceiling issue...he changes his mind based on the highest bidder (McConnell apparently called him and Sinema before anyone else in Dem party).

[DMC]

12 minutes ago, The Great Unwashed said:

do you think the WH is playing hardball; trying to break the debt ceiling as a negotiation tactic? Psaki’s statement was weird wrt the context of everything but I’m not sure of the timeline.

I think it was just a lack of coordination between the WH and Senate Dems, which was funny.  Sounds like Schumer and McConnell are still haggling, but a deal will be reached soon on the delay to December.  Of course, with Trump immediately weighing in and attacking McConnell who knows, he could retreat back to a hardened position within hours because almost all of his conference are still lapdogs to Trump.

18 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

But reading his quote about "whatever it takes" and now opposing the filibuster in the debt ceiling issue...he changes his mind based on the highest bidder (McConnell apparently called him and Sinema before anyone else in Dem party).

Well...I think Manchin and McConnell (and presumably Sinema, but like you said who knows) are aligned in not wanting the debt ceiling fight to get to the extent that Biden/Schumer et al. pursue a filibuster carve out for it.  It makes sense for both of them because doing so would amp up the pressure to pursue other carve outs - after all, if you make an exception for the debt ceiling how can you say doing so on voting rights isn't just as important?

My point is that I understand that's Manchin's position, but it would have been nice if he just acted like a Democrat for a moment and threatened he'd be alright/open to/whatever with a debt ceiling carve out to McConnell to see if the latter would cave on it - because the prospect of such appears to have made the turtle shit his pants.  Instead, Manchin is reportedly functionally acting like an ally of McConnell on this instead of his own leadership - which frankly pisses me off much more than his absurd obstinance in the intraparty battle.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

7 hours ago, DMC said:

I think it was just a lack of coordination between the WH and Senate Dems, which was funny.  Sounds like Schumer and McConnell are still haggling, but a deal will be reached soon on the delay to December.  Of course, with Trump immediately weighing in and attacking McConnell who knows, he could retreat back to a hardened position within hours because almost all of his conference are still lapdogs to Trump.

Well...I think Manchin and McConnell (and presumably Sinema, but like you said who knows) are aligned in not wanting the debt ceiling fight to get to the extent that Biden/Schumer et al. pursue a filibuster carve out for it.  It makes sense for both of them because doing so would amp up the pressure to pursue other carve outs - after all, if you make an exception for the debt ceiling how can you say doing so on voting rights isn't just as important?

My point is that I understand that's Manchin's position, but it would have been nice if he just acted like a Democrat for a moment and threatened he'd be alright/open to/whatever with a debt ceiling carve out to McConnell to see if the latter would cave on it - because the prospect of such appears to have made the turtle shit his pants.  Instead, Manchin is reportedly functionally acting like an ally of McConnell on this instead of his own leadership - which frankly pisses me off much more than his absurd obstinance in the intraparty battle.

Me too, and there's been speculation he's always been working with McConnell, but the debt ceiling has really made it hard to not see that he's directly working with Republicans and not "his party." 

[Fez]

Once again I reiterate, Democrats should've just put debt ceiling language in the BBB reconciliation bill and avoided all this.

As for Manchin, we don't know what his conversations with McConnell have entailed; but I think he did threaten something, otherwise McConnell wouldn't have partially, sorta caved like this.

[IheartIheartTesla]

Dysfunctional garbage. Now Democrats have to waste time drafting a reconciliation bill for raising debt limit, while at the same time try to craft and pass another bill or two that satisfies everyone (I'd suggest the latter is more important to Americans). Pretty sure corralling a bunch of people during the holiday season wont be easy either, while Biden's approval rating sinks and Trump is pretty much assuring he is locked in for nominee when he runs.

[DMC]

1 hour ago, Fez said:

Once again I reiterate, Democrats should've just put debt ceiling language in the BBB reconciliation bill and avoided all this.

Once again immediately appeasing McConnell and the Senate GOP like that has no upside and a lot of downside.  Pretty odd thing to reassert considering what just happened.

1 hour ago, Fez said:

As for Manchin, we don't know what his conversations with McConnell have entailed; but I think he did threaten something, otherwise McConnell wouldn't have partially, sorta caved like this.

Seems pretty clear it was Biden that scared McConnell, not Manchin.  Not to mention the latter would almost certainly leak it as he never hesitates to brag about his outsized influence.

[Fez]

11 minutes ago, DMC said:

Once again immediately appeasing McConnell and the Senate GOP like that has no upside and a lot of downside.  Pretty odd thing to reassert considering what just happened.

Seems pretty clear it was Biden that scared McConnell, not Manchin.  Not to mention the latter would almost certainly leak it as he never hesitates to brag about his outsized influence.

Lots of downsides here. I'll just echo these thoughts:

 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

Lots of downsides here. I'll just echo these thoughts:

I don't know what coverage you've been reading, but this undoubtedly weakens McConnell's position come December.  As for not being able to "tout their accomplishments" in December, I don't see that as much of a downside considering that's really not the time for electioneering.  (Not to mention the Dems still actually have to accomplish these things first before they can tout them.)

The downside is taking sole responsibility for the debt ceiling which has two negative aspects.  The electoral one - with the GOP using the unilateral raise to highlight "out of control spending" - I think is a bit overwrought.  Not sure voters care that much, but I understand the Dems' skittishness considering past history.  More importantly, it doesn't set a precedent that would very obviously encourage even more aggressive brinksmanship by McConnell/the Senate GOP when this comes up again after the midterms.

[DMC]

Ruben Gallego is left's favorite to take on Sinema

Quote

Rep. Ruben Gallego (D) has emerged as an early favorite to primary Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (D) in Arizona as fury on the left grows over her opposition to the party’s sweeping reconciliation package.

As Democrats’ patience with Sinema runs out amid negotiations over the $3.5 trillion social policy and climate change package, Gallego, a 41-year-old in his fourth term representing a Phoenix-based district, has found himself at the center of an effort to oppose Sinema’s reelection in 2024.

Progressives are already laying the groundwork for a potential primary challenge, and one campaign, Run Ruben Run, has set its sights specifically on recruiting Gallego into the race.

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Anybody else seeing Sinema joining Faux News as contributor to moan alongside Gabbard about the crazy lefties in the DNC?

[DMC]

Nice piece on Jon Tester - the Anti-Manchin.  Usually don't quote this much but the first five graphs are pretty funny:

Quote

When Jon Tester returned from a White House meeting last month, Amy Klobuchar congratulated him for his “nice quote” about the debt ceiling.

As Klobuchar read back Tester's expletive-infused words, he recalled protesting: “‘Come on. I didn't say fucking.’ And she said, ‘Oh no, you said fucking.’” After digesting that Klobuchar was right, Tester kicked himself: "‘Goddammit. I’m trying to wean myself off of this.’”

There’s been a lot for the senator to swear about lately, as Tester castigates Republicans for their intransigent position on the debt ceiling and assesses spending a “shitpile” of money on President Joe Biden’s agenda. But despite hailing from a state that Biden lost by 16 points, Tester isn’t among the Democrats getting cursed out for obstruction by liberal activists.

In fact, the burly farmer from Big Sandy, Mont., has become a reliable advocate of much of Biden’s agenda, even as he eyes a potentially perilous reelection campaign in 2024 in a state where being a Democrat is hard enough.

And as for whether Tester’s alignment with Biden and relatively liberal voting record is a clue about whether he’ll retire rather than run again … well, throw another quarter in the swear jar: “Oh, no, fuck that. That’s not my style.”

 

[TrackerNeil]

16 hours ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

I think it definitely supports the appearance of a dysfunctional Dem party. McConnell's insistence that they do it through reconciliation shows this--he had to come in and help the Dems out because they can't get their party on board for the debt ceiling. Manchin and Sinema are acting like they won't do it through reconciliation--I think it fuels the narrative of a broken Democratic party.

I don't think most voters follow this stuff as closely as we here, so what little they know about this fracas they will likely have forgotten come November 2022.

BTW, I have long been a fan of either the $1 trillion coin, or Biden simply directing the treasury to borrow as needed to sustain the government, debt ceiling be damned. It might or might not be legal, but Republicans can take him to court to force the government into default and the economy into a tailspin--that's a hill worth fighting on. 

[DMC]

2 hours ago, The Great Unwashed said:

ETA: When I say that Biden should be making that argument in a practical way, I mean by actually doing it and forcing Republicans to respond to a changing state-of-play. I do realize the admin is already making that argument rhetorically.

Well, I think it'd be pretty irresponsible to increase the type of uncertainty and potential economic instability that would come with the president pursuing those unilateral options unless McConnell forces his hand.  Which thus far he hasn't.

[Mindwalker]

5 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

BTW, I have long been a fan of either the $1 trillion coin, or ...

And here I thought Colbert made it up!

[Fez]

Romney voted 'no' on the debt ceiling filibuster, rather surprised by that one. Seems like a lot of Senate Republicans are in the "vote no, hope yes" camp, but I figured he was immune to that kind of pressure.

Right now there's 9 Republican "ayes" and 35 'nays." The ayes are:

Barrasso Capito Collins Cornyn McConnell Murkowski Portman Shelby Thune

Gotta find one more out of the 6 Republicans left to vote. Presumably someone will draw the short straw, but Republicans didn't sound 100% confident prior to the vote.

And again, this is for 2 months of can kicking. It's all so stupid.

ETA: McConnell got Blunt on board, that makes 10.

And Sinema already voted 'aye' as well, in case anyone was worried she might try something weird/stupid,

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

10 minutes ago, Mindwalker said:

And here I thought Colbert made it up!

Per usual, The Simpsons did it first. Here's your history lesson:

 

[DMC]

3 minutes ago, Fez said:

ETA: McConnell got Blunt on board, that makes 10.

Checking CSPAN it's 61-38 right now...

[Fez]

36 minutes ago, DMC said:

Checking CSPAN it's 61-38 right now...

Rounds also voted in favor at the end.