US Politics: A Game of Chicken (with Constituents lives)

[Zorral]

2 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

Nyet. That must’ve been a fairly niche thing. 
 

I go out of my way to try and pay attention, but first I’m hearing of a “Cuban Debacle”.

Majority of Americans have no idea what you are talking about.

No way it would have a meaningful effect on elections, or Biden’s popularity.  
 

Edit: Or are you talking about a specific, localized  election/thing I missed?

Ya, only a few of us here in the USA care that the USA is starving Cuba to death with prohibitions of trading everything from food to syringes.

[A True Kaniggit]

3 hours ago, Zorral said:

If he'd turned around the Cuba debacle, that would have been a big thing. 

 

 

23 minutes ago, Zorral said:

Ya, only a few of us here in the USA care that the USA is starving Cuba to death with prohibitions of trading everything from food to syringes.

So you were talking about American/Cuban relations in general over the last few decades with your first post? 

Not a new incident that has happened in the last little while?

Edit: I thought you were talking about a new debacle I hadn’t heard of.

I agree. All sanctions on Cuba should be lifted. They obviously do more harm than good. 

[TrackerNeil]

42 minutes ago, Tywin et al. said:

Man, fuck the 5th Circuit Court:

https://www.cnn.com/2021/10/08/politics/texas-abortion-appeal/index.html

Conservatives really have discarded the mask they used to wear, haven't they? That Texas law is obviously unconstitutional, but now that the Supreme Court has a right-wing supermajority, conservatives no longer even need to pretend that matters.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

5 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Conservatives really have discarded the mask they used to wear, haven't they? That Texas law is obviously unconstitutional, but now that the Supreme Court has a right-wing supermajority, conservatives no longer even need to pretend that matters.

The phrase "liberal activist judges" has always driven me nuts when considering Republicans literally have The Federalist Society, which openly says their job is to groom conservative activists and pipeline them onto courts. Liberals have to stop fighting with one hand tied behind their back, and it needs to start by countering every claim that liberals are all socialists and communists with hitting conservatives over the head for being actual fascists. 

[TrackerNeil]

1 minute ago, Tywin et al. said:

The phrase "liberal activist judges" has always driven me nuts when considering Republicans literally have The Federalist Society, which openly says their job is to groom conservative activists and pipeline them onto courts. Liberals have to stop fighting with one hand tied behind their back, and it needs to start by countering every claim that liberals are all socialists and communists with hitting conservatives over the head for being actual fascists. 

I used to think people were convinced by facts and the truth, but these days I am far less optimistic. I think people are convinced when they decide they want to be convinced, and I have no idea how we get there, I really don't.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

27 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

I used to think people were convinced by facts and the truth, but these days I am far less optimistic. I think people are convinced when they decide they want to be convinced, and I have no idea how we get there, I really don't.

Can't say that's ever been true in my adult lifetime. Otherwise the Republican party would already be dead. What's scary is the willingness to embrace obvious lies. Just like the fascists in Europe did in the 20s, 30s and 40s.

[Larry of the Lawn]

Just read this, reporting on an out of control authoritarian county justice system in Tennessee that locks up juveniles, like, 8-12 year olds, on crimes that don't exist.  The county was successfully sued for up to $11 million or so, but now has continued to expand its operations and while it can no longer use its illegal rubric for detaining kids, it has become a for-profit holding center for a bunch of other countries.  

Honestly got a bit nauseous reading this.  There's definitely a racial component to it, and a bunch of levels of people just failing to stop the insanity going on around them.  Which is sadly ironic given the charges surrounding the incident used as a lead-in for the story.  Ugh.  

The two people mentioned the most, Davenport and Duke, need to be publicly shamed and held to account.  Instead they make $150k and $95k plus respectively, and continue to run this shit show.  Fucking gross.

https://www.propublica.org/article/black-children-were-jailed-for-a-crime-that-doesnt-exist

[Larry of the Lawn]

if you don't want to read the entire article this twitter thread is a decent summary by one of the reporters

 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

5 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

Just like the fascists in Europe did in the 20s, 30s and 40s.

If we call a right-wing racist-sexist movement to end liberal democracy fascist are we not the true fascists? 

6 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

I used to think people were convinced by facts and the truth, but these days I am far less optimistic. I think people are convinced when they decide they want to be convinced, and I have no idea how we get there, I really don't.

 human beings are naturally biased to reconfiguring or dismissing information that contradicts their worldview(left, right, liberal, conservative).

Though conservatives tend to work more effectively as a group on  an issue or idea and not delve into whether or not their opposition has a point against them. It doesn't matter if liberals win or lose an election, cons without will fail demand liberals ingratiate themselves to conservatives. 

I do think it’s necessary to try to be empathetic to trumpists in understanding what they believe, and what they want, and what they're doing to achieve what they want. And ealize for most of them they’d cheerily make the USA into an totalitarian state to advance their agendas. 

 

[Varysblackfyre321]

10 hours ago, Zorral said:

If he'd turned around the Cuba debacle, that would have been a big thing. 

 

And electorally an unpopular thing especially with Cuban-americans 

[Luzifer's right hand]

13 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

And electorally an unpopular thing especially with Cuban-americans 

Don't they vote Repuplican anyway?

[Varysblackfyre321]

1 minute ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Don't they vote Repuplican anyway?

Mostly yeah, but by how much even if just 20, 15 percent can be significant in getting Florida even by the most narrow margins.

[Larry of the Lawn]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

Mostly yeah, but by how much even if just 20, 15 percent can be significant in getting Florida even by the most narrow margins.

Do you really believe that if Dems were just a bit tougher on Cuba they'd flip votes in FL?  That seems farfetched.  

eta: this is one of those issues like immigration, where regardless of their position they won't win over any GOP votes.  Biden has been deporting people like crazy and the detainees are piling up, Obama was pretty tough on immigration, but they still get labelled as being for 'open borders'.  But I'm sure that electorally, it's a good thing to embargo a neighboring country.  wtf

[Varysblackfyre321]

6 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Do you really believe that if Dems were just a bit tougher on Cuba they'd flip votes in FL? 

No. 
 

 

6 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

eta: this is one of those issues like immigration, where regardless of their position they won't win over any GOP votes. 

it would probably cost a few votes which can be the difference in a tight race in Florida.

I can see the attack ads now in Spanish running in Florida: Biden cozies up to the communist dictator that victimized you and/or your family.

Some positions on certain topics you like may not be the most popular to you.

9 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

Biden has been deporting people like crazy and the detainees are piling up, Obama was pretty tough on immigration, but they still get labelled as being for 'open borders'.

True.

9 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

But I'm sure that electorally, it's a good thing to embargo a neighboring country.  wtf

To keep Biden’s approval up probably yes, don’t touch the embargo. At the very least I don’t see how this would improve his popularity.

[Larry of the Lawn]

25 minutes ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

No. 
 

 

it would probably cost a few votes which can be the difference in a tight race in Florida.

I can see the attack ads now in Spanish running in Florida: Biden cozies up to the communist dictator that victimized you and/or your family.

Some positions on certain topics you like may not be the most popular to you.

True.

To keep Biden’s approval up probably yes, don’t touch the embargo. At the very least I don’t see how this would improve his popularity.

I wonder if Biden could improve his approval rating if he started saying that maybe gun control is a waste of time, or that maybe abortion restrictions should be left to the states.  Probably a great opportunity to pick up a few votes.

[Varysblackfyre321]

5 minutes ago, larrytheimp said:

I wonder if Biden could improve his approval rating if he started saying that maybe gun control is a waste of time, or that maybe abortion restrictions should be left to the states.  Probably a great opportunity to pick up a few votes.

Not really no. I’m sorry what exactly is your reasoning for thinking lifting an embargo would do more to help Biden’s approval? Please do not just communicate you’re disgust with it.

[DMC]

To be clear, lifting the embargo continues to have widespread support nationally.  The issue, of course, is with Cuban-Americans, where support for maintaining the embargo is back up to 60 percent.  This is buoyed by distinctly conservative bend of new arrivals:

Quote

While the Republican Party maintains a slight majority among registered voters (53%), it is receiving new blood from the most recent arrivals. Seventy-six percent of registered voters who arrived between 2010-2015 report registering as Republicans. (Figure 36)

At the same time, it should be noted that there is still widespread support for other policy shifts Biden could pursue:

Quote

The support for some policies promoting engagement remains relatively high, such as the selling of food (69% support) and medicines to the island (74% support) maintaining diplomatic relations (58% support) and the resumption of airline travel to all regions of the island (65% support). (Figures 8, 9, 13, 21)

In terms of Biden's Cuba policy affecting "approval," another aspect that's important to keep in mind is that right-leaning Cuban Americans support Trump/the GOP on issues across the board - from healthcare to covid to China policy.  Moreover, Cuban Americans care more about other issues than Cuba policy:

Quote

The economy and health care remain the two most important national issues for Cuban Americans. Respondents were asked to independently rank the importance of six policies related to the economy, health care, race relations, immigration, Cuba and China. The economy and health care were considered to be the two most important issues facing the community across all age groups, migration cohorts and political party registration. Cuba policy ranked last for all but the oldest cohort and the non-citizens in the sample. (Figure 23-25)

Perhaps most important, support for the embargo among Cuban Americans is decidedly malleable, even volatile.  In 2007, 60% supported the embargo.  In 2016, after Obama introduced his policies, support for the embargo dropped to 34%.  Then, after Trump reversed course, support for the embargo snapped back up to 59% by October 2020. 

This strongly suggests actual leadership on the issue can significantly impact a shift in attitudes.  At least on the embargo - again, the Cuban Americans that voted for Trump appear to be just as Trumpist as all his other voters on non-Cuban issues.  Which, in turn, indicates while Biden shifting course on Cuba policy probably wouldn't gain any voters, he also would be very unlikely to lose any voters.

[Mr. Chatywin et al.]

1 hour ago, The Great Unwashed said:

In this, we are 100% agreed.

You'd be surprised on how me we agree on. It's just a process disagreement. And I maintain that the goal to strike a quick deal was absolutely the way things should have gone. This dragged out process has achieved absolutely nothing positive, while the negatives are starkly clear. 

[Zorral]

14 hours ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I thought you were talking about a new debacle I hadn’t heard of.

I'm talking about what Bolton and the tRumpistas did, the rescinding of Obama's policies allowing for trade, travel, encouragement of entrepreneurship on the island, the people-to-people visitations, cultural exchange and easier travel.  Then they went further than the old policies, making it illegal to do any trade of any kind, for people anywhere to send money or anything else including medications like ibuprofen to relatives and friends in Cuba, to hire Cubans as musicians and other art - entertainment acts, and all the rest.  Complete embargo on everything, including travel, and medical supplies, which applies to every nation that the US will trade with. 

Biden ran on the promise to go back to the Obama policy.  But he's done not a single thing toward that.  Not one.  Plus he's also bought into every bit of the Haitian immigration policies, as well as those from all the rest of the Caribbean, Central and South America.

 

[Zorral]

7 hours ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

And electorally an unpopular thing especially with Cuban-americans 

That's untrue for many Cuban-Americans because they can no longer help and visit their relatives on the island. There's just that batch in Miami -- and does not apply to all the Cubans in Miami by any means.