US Politics: A Game of Chicken (with Constituents lives)

[Fez]

1 hour ago, Varysblackfyre321 said:

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/bidens-approval-rating-isnt-bouncing-back/

It appears the liberal expectations that Biden’s approval would climb as Afghanistan faded from memory were being a bit optimistic.

It never seemed realistic that Afghanistan was the main cause of the slide, especially since his numbers were going down before the pullout. I think its more that everything generally still sucks, COVID is still a big problem, and the coverage (and Democratic PR) for the BBB and BIF has been terrible. All the focus has been on the dollar amount, rather than what it does, so it feeds into old perceptions of "tax and spend" liberals.

Also, the fact that a sizable number of people straight up don't like nice things is why we often can't have them:

 

[TrackerNeil]

22 hours ago, Tywin et al. said:

I’d argue what’s more problematic about the current state of media coverage is that it now often mirrors the worst parts of hot take sports culture. We’ve all seen clips of six talking heads yelling at each other and nobody gains anything from that.

I'll add that I despise when media frame stories in a way that leads readers to an ideological conclusion. Earlier this year, The Hill ran a headline: "Biden proposes raising capital gains to eye-popping 28%." I kept thinking, why is that "eye-popping"? The capital gains tax used to be a LOT higher than that, right? So this headline already disposes the reader to think that Joe Biden is just going nuts with the socialism or whatever.

[Fez]

At least the senate is still capable of moving forward on federal judges...

As an added bonus, she's only 39; gonna be there a long time.

[Zorral]

School shooting -- Arlington, part of the Dallas-Ft. Worth metroplex.

https://www.nydailynews.com/news/national/ny-timberview-high-school-texas-shooting-20211006-ro4ne73dkjch5j4guktu42by6i-story.html

 

[Rippounet]

2 hours ago, TrackerNeil said:

I'll add that I despise when media frame stories in a way that leads readers to an ideological conclusion.

You don't get the news then?

[Zorral]

Adam Schiff - January 6 -- The House Floor

https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2021/10/adam-schiff-describes-january-6-from-the-house-floor

 

[DMC]

Senate GOP leader McConnell offers short-term debt ceiling extension following pressure from Biden:

Quote

 

“To protect the American people from a near-term Democrat-created crisis, we will also allow Democrats to use normal procedures to pass an emergency debt limit extension at a fixed dollar amount to cover current spending levels into December,” he said in a statement posted to Twitter.

“This will moot Democrats’ excuses about the time crunch they created and give the unified Democratic government more than enough time to pass standalone debt limit legislation through reconciliation,” the Kentucky Republican added.

 

 

[A Horse Named Stranger]

Smart move by Moscow Mitch.

He makes his gang of lunatics look reasonable, and sticks the knife into the chaotic Democrats.

Long may that tantrum of of Manchema last.

[DMC]

6 hours ago, Fez said:

Also, the fact that a sizable number of people straight up don't like nice things is why we often can't have them:

 

Digging into the crosstabs, these results are very weird.  In terms of credit, only 55% of democrats selected Democrats in Congress.  OTOH, 42% of GOP voters and Independents gave Democrats in Congress credit.  Same story with Biden - only 46% of Democrats gave him credit, while 32% of GOP respondents did.  Given how few respondents of any PID were willing to give anybody credit, I'm not sure how much insight this item gives us.

On making them permanent, again, the partisan split is not as pronounced as one would think.  Only 55% of Dems say yes while 35% of Dems say no.  For the GOP, the split is 21/70.  For Independents, 28/53.  I think these low numbers may be due to the wording of the item:

Quote

As you may know, the expanded child tax credit payments are set to expire next year. Do you think the payments should be made permanent?

The emphasis on "payments" makes it sound like a handout.

[ThinkerX]

2 minutes ago, DMC said:

Digging into the crosstabs, these results are very weird.  In terms of credit, only 55% of democrats selected Democrats in Congress.  OTOH, 42% of GOP voters and Independents gave Democrats in Congress credit.  Same story with Biden - only 46% of Democrats gave him credit, while 32% of GOP respondents did.  Given how few respondents of any PID were willing to give anybody credit, I'm not sure how much insight this item gives us.

On making them permanent, again, the partisan split is not as pronounced as one would think.  Only 55% of Dems say yes while 35% of Dems say no.  For the GOP, the split is 21/70.  For Independents, 28/53.  I think these low numbers may be due to the wording of the item:

The emphasis on "payments" makes it sound like a handout.

probably left out of that...

on occasion, republican/conservative media will (very reluctantly) agree that Biden did something positive.

in the comments to those articles, though, republicans/conservatives will almost always insist that Biden is senile, that he didn't know what he was doing, and the ones who *really* made the decisions were unidentified nefarious staffers.

[DMC]

16 minutes ago, ThinkerX said:

on occasion, republican/conservative media will (very reluctantly) agree that Biden did something positive.

That still doesn't explain why only around half of democratic respondents gave congressional Dems and/or Biden credit.  That low number is a major red flag in terms of the item's external validity/reliability.

[DMC]

LOL at Dem Senators indicating they'd accept McConnell's offer - and Warren even portraying it as McConnell caving - at the exact same time Jen Psaki responded to the offer with this:

Quote

"We could get this done today. We don't need to kick the can. We don't need to go through a cumbersome process that every day brings additional risks," Psaki said.

"The preference would be just getting this done today so we can move on to more business for the American people, and that option is still on the table," Psaki continued. "If we're looking at the best options, why kick the can down the road a couple more weeks? Why create an additional layer of uncertainty? Why not just get it done now? That's what we're continuing to press for and that's our first choice."

 

[ThinkerX]

can't really say I'm surprised here.  article doesn't give the idiots political affiliation, but my money is on 'hard conservative' - that bunch absolutely loathes Murkowski and is continually baffled/enraged that she keeps getting reelected.

 

https://www.adn.com/alaska-news/crime-courts/2021/10/06/delta-junction-man-threatened-to-have-us-senator-killed-federal-charges-say/

An Alaska man faces federal charges after authorities allege he threatened to hire an assassin to kill U.S. Sen. Lisa Murkowski, according to court documents unsealed Wednesday.

In a separate threat left in a voice message at Murkowski’s Washington, D.C., office, the caller asked if the Alaska Republican knew what a .50 caliber shell does to a human head, according to court records unsealed Wednesday.

Jay Allen Johnson, 65, of Delta Junction was scheduled to make his first appearance in U.S. District Court in Fairbanks on Wednesday for making threats against Murkowski and another senator, the U.S. Attorney’s Office said.

[DMC]

Great to see Manchema are so chummy working with McConnell:

Quote

The back channel: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell discussed his debt ceiling offer with moderate Democratic Sens. Joe Manchin of West Virginia and Kyrsten Sinema of Arizona in phone calls earlier Wednesday, according to two sources familiar with the phone calls.

Why this matters: The centrist duo holds the keys to the future of the filibuster -- which McConnell wants to preserve. McConnell's already asked his conference to say nice things about Manchin and Sinema. And of course, on the same day as the calls, Manchin announced he did not support altering the filibuster for the debt ceiling.

 

[Centrist Simon Steele]

3 hours ago, DMC said:

That still doesn't explain why only around half of democratic respondents gave congressional Dems and/or Biden credit.  That low number is a major red flag in terms of the item's external validity/reliability.

I know Politico has a document on polling methodology, but they don't really describe how their methodology is enacted. Its more an overview of "do this, don't do that." I think we're seeing that current approaches to political polling are not effective. My guess is they believe the gold standard of research (true random sampling) is enough, but it's not in this case. How are they seeking participants? Are they collecting demographic information--and how are they verifying there isn't an element of BS in respondents answers in those sections? Are they truly doing random sampling, or assuming it is (for example, is there a specific age group more likely to respond to their method of soliciting participants)?

Is it they don't know how to analyze the data they're writing about? I don't know, and while I do know there are statistics experts behind some of the better political polling outlets, we have still seen them reluctant to change traditional approaches to surveys/polls.

[DMC]

2 minutes ago, Centrist Simon Steele said:

I know Politico has a document on polling methodology, but they don't really describe how their methodology is enacted.

I don't think this is a problem with methodology per se, just that the item and/or its responses aren't particularly useful.  Or at least, it's much more helpful to see the PID crosstabs.  The numbers on those giving Dems in Congress/Biden credit may look low, but the context that only around half of Democrats comprise that number means it's not really a problem.  Especially since Dems support the expanded child tax credit 74/18 (and Independents 44/39) in the same poll.

[TrackerNeil]

6 hours ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Smart move by Moscow Mitch.

He makes his gang of lunatics look reasonable, and sticks the knife into the chaotic Democrats.

Long may that tantrum of of Manchema last.

Is it smart? Will most voters really notice this, and remember it a year from now? I doubt it. I think most people likely view this as a mere Washington squabble.

What I do think is that, if I were a Republican aiming to goad Democrats into altering the filibuster, this is exactly how I'd do it. Target absolute must-pass legislation for filibustering, so that Democrats either change the rules or take the blame for an economic meltdown. I'm not saying the GOP is trying to force Schumer's hand on the filibuster, but, goddamn, if they are, they're doing it right.

[DMC]

9 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Is it smart? Will most voters really notice this, and remember it a year from now?

I'm not sure how this will play with the ever elusive "average voter," but Drudge wording the headline as something like "McConnell Agrees to Raise Debt Ceiling" all afternoon - and now "McConnell Blinks," in red lettering, certainly sounds pretty good.

Of course, this still is just kicking the can down the road, and sets up another game of chicken in December where the deadline is once again linked to a possible shutdown.

[DMC]

15 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

What I do think is that, if I were a Republican aiming to goad Democrats into altering the filibuster

Sorry for the double post, didn't finish reading your post.  Republicans, or at least McConnell, are definitely not trying to goad Dems into altering the filibuster.  Indeed, it's pretty clear between him taking the offer to Manchema first and Biden raising the possibility of a carve out of the filibuster for the debt ceiling last night, that that's exactly what McConnell is most afraid of.

Which circles back to why I posted complaining about Manchema working with McConnell on this.  If they had instead at least threatened to be on board with such a carve out, maybe they could've gotten McConnell to simply give the Dems a clean vote to raise/suspend it til after the midterms.

[Centrist Simon Steele]

59 minutes ago, TrackerNeil said:

Is it smart? Will most voters really notice this, and remember it a year from now? I doubt it. I think most people likely view this as a mere Washington squabble.

What I do think is that, if I were a Republican aiming to goad Democrats into altering the filibuster, this is exactly how I'd do it. Target absolute must-pass legislation for filibustering, so that Democrats either change the rules or take the blame for an economic meltdown. I'm not saying the GOP is trying to force Schumer's hand on the filibuster, but, goddamn, if they are, they're doing it right.

I think it definitely supports the appearance of a dysfunctional Dem party. McConnell's insistence that they do it through reconciliation shows this--he had to come in and help the Dems out because they can't get their party on board for the debt ceiling. Manchin and Sinema are acting like they won't do it through reconciliation--I think it fuels the narrative of a broken Democratic party.