How Big Will Dany's Host be when she reaches Westeros?

[rotting sea cow]

27 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Dany is no Tywin but she's not stupid. And she's a lot smarter than people tend to give her credit for. I guess it's because of all the self-doubt and regret and  confusion that her chapters are swimming in makes it hard for people to see how she has a brilliant military mind.

Dany is certainly not stupid, but we need to look at her development over ADWD. She is sick with peace and soon will have an army, a big army to impose over everybody. She will also hear about Aegon who she will recognize as the "mummer's dragon" and she won't recieve the news with an open mind. There is also Tyrion who will have his own motivations, not all them good.

 

27 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

I am not sure that this will be the case.

I am thinking that the Wall falls either in the epilogue of The Winds of Winter or the prologue of A Dream of Spring

In either case, Dany is likely to either still be in Essos or on her way to Westeros.

I reckon there is a big issue with the timelines (I want to make a post about it). From the plot perspective it's better after she lands otherwise it will be difficult to focus on the other conflicts she has to deal, with herself and with Aegon and Euron. 

I agree that an TWOW Epilogue is the proper place for the Wall to fall. We'll see

[SeanF]

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Doubtful. She wouldn't have been able to beat the Lannister-Tyrell alliance with only her 12,000 or so soldiers that she had right after conquering Meereen. Her dragons still weren't large enough to be a serious threat to armies.

 

Completely different environments, though. Slaver's Bay was/is a dystopia of slavery and despotism, extreme even by the standards of the series as a whole. By comparison, most of Westeros isn't remotely as bad, even during wartime. Dany never said she had any problem with things like feudalism or aristocracy, etc. It was almost solely the issue of slavery that kept her there. Westeros does not have slavery (outside of a couple of questionable regions like the Iron Islands), so this issue won't occur there. 

Also, the majority of the population of Slavery's Bay explicitly wanted her to use her armies to free them because of their situation, i.e. being slaves. No such sentiment exists in Westeros, except in Dany's imagination fuelled by the delusions of Viserys and the lies of Illyrio. There are no cartoonishly evil slave masters to defeat there, only hundreds of regular feudal lords, and Dany obviously has no problem with feudalism or monarchy, since she ruled as an absolute monarch in Meereen. To think that Dany will receive the same welcome by Westerosi peasants as she did with the freed slaves is the height of delusion and wishful thinking. It's what she wants to be true, but part of her knows it won't be. She thought about this in one of the very first chapters in Thrones, after listening to what Jorah said on the topic.

So why has she spent five books building a huge army, and waiting for her dragons to grow large enough to ride and rain down fire? If all she truly wanted was to find "home", she could disguise herself as some wealthy merchant's wife and get a small house out in the countryside somewhere in Westeros. She doesn't need to violently conquer the Seven Kingdoms. 

The hoops that Dany fans jump through to justify some of her actions continue to astound me. They simply can't admit even the most basic of truths. In that way they're actually quite similar to some of the Targaryen characters themselves....

I don’t think she could have conquered the Seven Kingdoms with the resources she had as at the end of ASOS.  But a more ruthless leader - such as Jon Connington, or one of the leaders of the Golden Company - would have thoroughly looted Slavers Bay (and likely sold the non-combatants to the Qartheen and New Ghis) before sailing Westwards, and using her wealth to recruit soldiers and sailors. 

[SeanF]

51 minutes ago, BlackLightning said:

Dany is no Tywin but she's not stupid. And she's a lot smarter than people tend to give her credit for. I guess it's because of all the self-doubt and regret and  confusion that her chapters are swimming in makes it hard for people to see how she has a brilliant military mind.

The First Battle of Meereen was masterminded by her as was the masterful coup and sack that occurred in Astapor. She actually did a pretty decent job ruling and managing Meereen (a city much larger than King's Landing and Oldtown put together) before she started making all of those crazy compromises that ended up nearly getting herself killed.

I am not sure that this will be the case.

I am thinking that the Wall falls either in the epilogue of The Winds of Winter or the prologue of A Dream of Spring

In either case, Dany is likely to either still be in Essos or on her way to Westeros.

Even in Dance, her instincts that they’re better off making use of Meereen’s defences, and that the Tattered Prince can be turned, are better than Ser Barristan’s suggestion of fighting a far more numerous enemy out in the open.  The Slavers are now being ravaged by disease.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

18 hours ago, chrisdaw said:

The whole united Khalasar won't cross the sea. Only a very moderate percentage will come with her, something like 15k.

Naw... Mr. Martin doesn't write to underwhelm. If Dany unites all the Khalassars they'll all be in for whole pound

[Daeron the Daring]

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Doubtful. She wouldn't have been able to beat the Lannister-Tyrell alliance with only her 12,000 or so soldiers that she had right after conquering Meereen. Her dragons still weren't large enough to be a serious threat to armies.

Not really. Imagine if she were to show up during the War of the Five Kings, or even after Tywin's death. You don't seem to take into account that Young Griff and the Golden Company begin their campaign only because they just decided to, and they also could. The Tyrell-Lannister alliance wasn't broken down (it still ain't) when they decided to hop on their ships and conquer the world with an army of 10000 men (worth noting the supposed quality of the GC, of course). That Daenerys could seize the Iron Throne with the Unsullied, three adolescent dragons and the potential backup coming from Westeros (the Iron Throne had many enemies at the time, we know that) is just a fact. The Golden Company relies on themselves and good relations with given high lords. The very sight of dragons and a professional army of 10000 men should easily make people change sides, as it is to be expected by many. Namely Dorne, the Riverlands, and the North as well would've grabbed the chance to turn the events by backing up Daenerys, not to mention the lords of the Reach and the Vale of Arryn, which of course would've obeyed Littlefinger in any way. It really is not doubtful. She would've gained wealth, the Unsullied, the Golden Company, and everything else Illyrio could give her and Aegon, had she departed Slaver's Bay after she sacked it. 

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Completely different environments, though. Slaver's Bay was/is a dystopia of slavery and despotism, extreme even by the standards of the series as a whole. By comparison, most of Westeros isn't remotely as bad, even during wartime. Dany never said she had any problem with things like feudalism or aristocracy, etc. It was almost solely the issue of slavery that kept her there. Westeros does not have slavery (outside of a couple of questionable regions like the Iron Islands), so this issue won't occur there. 

I don't get which part of my comment insisted anything different. There was a problem in Slaver's Bay that Daenerys felt like it has to be resolved, so she decided to stay, throwing away every ambition, goal and desire she had at that point.

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Also, the majority of the population of Slavery's Bay explicitly wanted her to use her armies to free them because of their situation, i.e. being slaves. No such sentiment exists in Westeros, except in Dany's imagination fuelled by the delusions of Viserys and the lies of Illyrio. There are no cartoonishly evil slave masters to defeat there, only hundreds of regular feudal lords, and Dany obviously has no problem with feudalism or monarchy, since she ruled as an absolute monarch in Meereen. To think that Dany will receive the same welcome by Westerosi peasants as she did with the freed slaves is the height of delusion and wishful thinking. It's what she wants to be true, but part of her knows it won't be. She thought about this in one of the very first chapters in Thrones, after listening to what Jorah said on the topic.

The idea that the Westerosi smallfolk, the peasantry, could have any effect on Daenerys' regime is just absurd. If there is something that could and could've stopped Daenerys was the nobility lining up behind another royal person. Other than that, the peasants don't have much to say about it. Starve King's Landing for a year and they would cry back Aerys II as well. That being said, she obviously will be greeted and beloved by the smallfolk, at first. However, I don't expect the peasantry to love anyone for too long. It happens every time. People aren't mad in ASOS because Tywin Lannister, who sacked the city 15 years ago basically rules over them, but because they are hungry. In case someone solves their problem they love the given ruler. In case they're not satisfied, they can hate anybody. But as a matter of fact, it doesn't matter. 

I am not sure why you making this conversation into something I did not and did not intend to either. 

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

So why has she spent five books building a huge army, and waiting for her dragons to grow large enough to ride and rain down fire? If all she truly wanted was to find "home", she could disguise herself as some wealthy merchant's wife and get a small house out in the countryside somewhere in Westeros. She doesn't need to violently conquer the Seven Kingdoms. 

You're talking bullshit. If you want to go back and live in your original hometown, you don't buy a house that neighbours the one you grew up in so that you could see that house everyday. You either try to purchase the house you grew up in or give a damn about all of it and buy a house wherever. 

The home Daenerys thinks awaits her is the Red Keep/Dragonstone in her mind. Not because she ever saw it or lived in it, but because she thinks she would've grown up there if her life didn't decide to turn over her head even before she wad born. That living in a cottage anywhere in Westeros would make her feel home doesn't make much sense. Nor is she supposed to live like a lonely widowed woman with 3 dragons in her stable, sometimes roaming her backyard. 

1 hour ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

The hoops that Dany fans jump through to justify some of her actions continue to astound me. They simply can't admit even the most basic of truths. In that way they're actually quite similar to some of the Targaryen characters themselves....

Please explain to me whatt kind of crimes of Daenerys was I justifying (because there are, in my opinion)? I said she doesn't want to get back the ancestral seat and position of her dynasty because she desires power and (to ehich, well, she rightfully has a claim) but rather because she: 

1) Wants to find home, aka an environment where she could finally feel safe and happy (which she thinks will be Westeros). 

2) Sees it as her duty to do so as the last member of her family, the last carrier of the legacy of her ancestors. If she only wanted power because she was a  megalomaniac tyrant, she would be very happy in Meereen. She isn't. I can suggest you read her last chapter in ADWD. That part tells much about her desires, and how she was willing to place them behind to act selflessly (cause she considers her decision to remain in Meereen selfless). 

But to be fair, if she only wanted to seize the IT because it's rightfully her's, I would be totally fine with that as well. I don't try to justify her intentions by changing them, I think all of them are equally justified. So not sure what was I tryna whitewash. 

Edit: I also don't consider myself a fan of her. I'm not a fan of anyone, tbh, altoigh she is one of the many I sympathise with. 

[Groo]

I have a hard time seeing even a majority of the Dothraki crossing the sea to fight in the Seven Kingdoms. The Dothraki want to follow a strong leader but that doesn't mean they will do anything that leader says. What do you think would have happened if Drogo suddenly told the Dothraki it was time to give up their horses and become famers? Sure, they have a legend of the stallion who mounts the world but what do you think that prophesy means to them? They don't hold lands and have never bothered to rule anyone. If they're going to cross the poisoned water to follow some legendary leader it will be because they think it is the greatest raid and pillaging in history. They wouldn't go to "rule" and they'd be disappointed in most of the Westerosi lands compared to the Dothraki Sea. Do you think Danny is going to get them to come by promising to raid and pillage an entire continent?

[chrisdaw]

4 hours ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

Naw... Mr. Martin doesn't write to underwhelm. If Dany unites all the Khalassars they'll all be in for whole pound

That's correct, they won't cross the sea because he's planning an overwhelming finish where the Narrow Sea runs dry and they ride across to the rescue of Westeros.

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

Just now, chrisdaw said:

That's correct, they won't cross the sea because he's planning an overwhelming finish where the Narrow Sea runs dry and they ride across to the rescue of Westeros.

Not dry up, but I believe that the Narrow Sea will freeze over from Winter.

[Aejohn the Conqueroo]

Just now, chrisdaw said:

That's correct, they won't cross the sea because he's planning an overwhelming finish where the Narrow Sea runs dry and they ride across to the rescue of Westeros.

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not (doesn't really matter either way) but the geography of Westeros has been drastically and by all accounts magically altered before. I wouldn't dismiss the idea that it could happen again. really it might under whelm a bit if it doesn't.  They got to get the seasons sorted out, right?

[Brynden"Bloodraven" Rivers]

2 minutes ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not (doesn't really matter either way) but the geography of Westeros has been drastically and by all accounts magically altered before. I wouldn't dismiss the idea that it could happen again. really it might under whelm a bit if it doesn't.  They got to get the seasons sorted out, right?

I don't think he is. There is a possibility that the Narrow Sea might freeze over but I don't see how it would run dry. Even a cataclysm like the Doom of Valyria didn't make seas run dry so I don't think the Others(who are commonly associated with Ice) would make the seas run dry.

[Rondo]

12 hours ago, WhatAnArtist! said:

Calm down with the blood lust. You sound like Joffrey or Aerys.

Daenerys will not bring liberation, she'll bring war. She's there to conquer. Whether you agree with her cause or not is irrelevant. She'll still bring war, just like the other Targaryen claimant - Aegon - has. All war is bad, whether it's caused by a Stark or a Baratheon or a Lannister or a Targaryen. Daenerys is still in the mindset of thinking that her rights are more important than the lives of innocent people (in this case the peasants of Westeros). If she truly cared about protecting innocent lives, she wouldn't be planning on invading with a massive army of raiders and sellswords. 

People arguing about which claimant has the better claim are absurd - it's like arguing over which knife is better to cut someone's throat with. The end result is the same - innocent people will die, caught up in a war they want nothing to do with. Jorah had it right at the start of the first book - the peasants don't care about who sits the throne, they just want to live in peace, and not starve or be forced to fight.

If you're going to take this position, then you must also agree that any attempts by the Starks to retake Winterfell by force is bad. 

[chrisdaw]

1 hour ago, Aejohn the Conqueroo said:

I'm not sure if you're being sarcastic or not (doesn't really matter either way) but the geography of Westeros has been drastically and by all accounts magically altered before. I wouldn't dismiss the idea that it could happen again. really it might under whelm a bit if it doesn't.  They got to get the seasons sorted out, right?

No I am not being sarcastic.

[StarksInTheNorth]

On 10/20/2021 at 12:34 AM, Tucu said:

GRRM has placed 3 khalasars near the Rhoyne. One going down the Selhoru, one crossing the forest of Qohor and one near Dagger Lake. I would guess that in TWoW these will join Dany, cross the Rhoyne and sack Pentos and Myr, while Volantis will have a slave revolt. That will give her 3 main ports from where to launch for Lys, Tyrosh and then Westeros.

They could also resist her instead of joining her. I’m pretty sure one of them is led by a ko of Drogo’s that didn’t like her. 

In the first two pages, I also didn’t see anyone mention the potential Sack of Pentos that may come up before she crosses, since Barristan promised it to Tatters. If she follows through, we may lose more of her men...

[Tucu]

3 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

They could also resist her instead of joining her. I’m pretty sure one of them is led by a ko of Drogo’s that didn’t like her. 

In the first two pages, I also didn’t see anyone mention the potential Sack of Pentos that may come up before she crosses, since Barristan promised it to Tatters. If she follows through, we may lose more of her men...

My guess is that Jhaqo will be the hard one (him and Mago are responsible for Eroeh); he is the one that finds Dany at the end of ADwD. Pono was the first to leave Drogo and the one with the large khalasar near the Selhoru; apart from being the first to leave there was no offence or aggression between Pono and Dany.

The other two khalasar near the Rhoyne are smaller and fleeing out of Pono's way.

[StarksInTheNorth]

5 hours ago, Tucu said:

My guess is that Jhaqo will be the hard one (him and Mago are responsible for Eroeh); . . .

The other two khalasar near the Rhoyne are smaller and fleeing out of Pono's way.

The show simplified Dany’s winning over of the Dothraki (and missed the opportunity for her to more specifically avenge Eroeh in an Arya-esque way). I’ve long thought that Dany won’t actually return to Meereen and will instead head southwest towards Volantis after receiving some kind of news that her allies in the south are also heading there.

If she claims Drogon in front of the Dothraki in Vaes Dothrak and is proclaimed TSWMTW, she can then move southwest and defeat Jhaqo and Mago. The combination of the defeat and dragon will probably be enough for the two smaller khalasars to bow to her.

That could result in losing the men of Jhaqo’s khalasar, but also not since it would only take one dragon to burn then both like the War in FB that was won in a day

[Tucu]

2 hours ago, StarksInTheNorth said:

That could result in losing the men of Jhaqo’s khalasar, but also not since it would only take one dragon to burn then both like the War in FB that was won in a day

I would bet on a new Field of Fire but wonder how big will GRRM make it. In Dany's last chapter the grass is turning yellow and she expects it to turn brown next. Will GRRM burn the Dothraki Sea from Vaes Dothrak all the way to the Forest of Qohor?

[BlackLightning]

On 10/23/2021 at 11:10 PM, StarksInTheNorth said:

They could also resist her instead of joining her. I’m pretty sure one of them is led by a ko of Drogo’s that didn’t like her. 

This is true.

I don't expect for GRRM to write the Dothraki as one giant monolith. He didn't in Game and I don't think he will in Winds. Some will oppose her but Dany will either destroy them or persuade them to join her cause.

On 10/24/2021 at 3:10 AM, Tucu said:

My guess is that Jhaqo will be the hard one (him and Mago are responsible for Eroeh); he is the one that finds Dany at the end of ADwD. Pono was the first to leave Drogo and the one with the large khalasar near the Selhoru; apart from being the first to leave there was no offence or aggression between Pono and Dany.

I think Dany was mad at Pono for being the first to abandon (and, actually, steal) from Drogo but I'm not sure if she is still mad. You'd think that with every thing she has been through since A Game of Thrones, she would understand Pono's logic and actions.

On 10/24/2021 at 10:23 AM, Tucu said:

I would bet on a new Field of Fire but wonder how big will GRRM make it. In Dany's last chapter the grass is turning yellow and she expects it to turn brown next. Will GRRM burn the Dothraki Sea from Vaes Dothrak all the way to the Forest of Qohor?

That would suck but it wouldn't be entirely undeserved.