The Expanse #6: better to go down swinging than rolling over

[JGP]

Good opener. 

Might could do with a reread when it's all said and done. I don't remember 

Spoiler

Filip

being that much of a chinless wonder in the books.

[Kalbear]

53 minutes ago, JEORDHl said:

Good opener. 

Might could do with a reread when it's all said and done. I don't remember 

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Filip

being that much of a chinless wonder in the books.

He is a super huge douche in book 6. 

[briantw]

6 minutes ago, Kalsandra said:

He is a super huge douche in book 6. 

He was Joffrey-level on the "I hope this fucking kid dies" scale.

[JGP]

How the hell don't I remember that lol

[Ran]

Good episode.

Spoiler

I don't know if they're deliberately doing more Alexander the Great referencing or not, but Filip killing Yoan vaguely reminded me of the death of Cleitus the Black, killed by Alexander in a fit of drunken rage during one of the Macedonian banquets.

And I guess this episode answered what Dawes was up to:  killed by Marco when he got tired of him speaking against him, apparently. Shame that means Harris will never make another appearance on the show.

And now we see that while the initial bombardment was damaging, the major biosphere damage is a result of continued bomardment for months, with the suggestion that a handful more got through and has basically overwhelmed their ability to scrub the atmosphere. So Earth is, indeed, fucked. Glad they tied this into the supply problem the Belt is going to have with no new supply of live soil or food, though, and Marco being so cavalier about it.

I guess the hunt for the Azure Dragon will occupy a couple of episodes.

You all watched the extra, self-contained vignette in the extras? Pretty good, I thought. More Camina = good. And speaking of that...

 

 

 

[sifth]

I had no idea Dawes had so many fans. 

[Ran]

35 minutes ago, sifth said:

I had no idea Dawes had so many fans. 

Jared Harris does. But it ties into my critique of last season — the reaction of the OPA leadership up to and following Fred’s death is completely invisible, the same way the Martian government response to things was completely a mystery. It’s understandable that with the limited run time they could not fit it all in, but it’s still a structural flaw to the last season. 

[Werthead]

I did think that was a very slow opening considering they only have six episodes to work with, but pretty solid stuff. I have seen a few reviews mentioning that Season 6 feels like an epilogue to Season 5 rather than its own thing, which might be fair because that's what Book 6 felt like as well compared to Book 5. 

[Ran]

Two more thoughts:

Why is Earth not putting bounty on Free Navy ships? Surely the Rocinante isn't the only independent ship out there. There are multiple private security companies, surely some of them operate combat-capable private craft to escort VIPs or protect assets? And the incentive of fat bounties might have led factional opponents to the Free Navy to actually have a chance, especially if the bounties could be turned into supplies to continue the fight (I'm going to guess part of the reason that Golden Bough, etc. have been falling to the Free Navy has to do with the situation we see with Drummer's crew -- they've been denied access to safe ports and now depend only on what they can scavenge).

Finally ... it's one thing after nine rocks are sent at Earth, and only 3 successfuly hit, to hold off on attacking Ceres, Tycho, etc. Avasarala was totally right. But the way it's described they've lobbed scores more asteroids at Earth, and while most have been splashed it looked like that impact map suggested a dozen or more still made it through, either broken up or entire. If it's been half a year, that means they're launching them weekly, if not daily. At that point, have to be honest, it seems like the only sane response is to strike vulnerable targets like Ceres and other Belter stations to destroy the Free Navy's ability to resupply. What can Marco do about it? Sling more rocks? He's doing it anyways. 

Edited December 10, 2021 by Ran

[Poobah]

12 minutes ago, Ran said:

Finally ... it's one thing after nine rocks are sent at Earth, and only 3 successfuly hit, to hold off on attacking Ceres, Tycho, etc. Avasarala was totally right. But the way it's described they've lobbed scores more asteroids at Earth, and while most have been splashed it looked like that impact map suggested a dozen or more still made it through, either broken up or entire. If it's been half a year, that means they're launching them weekly, if not daily. At that point, have to be honest, it seems like the only sane response is to strike vulnerable targets like Ceres and other Belter stations to destroy the Free Navy's ability to resupply. What can Marco do about it? Sling more rocks? He's doing it anyways. 

Moral high ground? I agree it'd be strategically sound but I can't really criticise someone for refusing to inflict massive civilian casualties. It also seems like the Earth and Mars fleets are currently pinned defending their homeworlds from all the rocks and so not necessarily available to take aggressive action. Perhaps once the Rocinante destroys this Azure Dragon they'll be free to launch a counter-offensive?

Edit to add: Perhaps also places like Ceres, Tycho, and Ganymede are thought to be necessary to the inners ongoing survival longterm, if Earth's biosphere is truly damaged beyond repair?

Edited December 10, 2021 by Poobah

[Ran]

23 minutes ago, Poobah said:

Moral high ground? I agree it'd be strategically sound but I can't really criticise someone for refusing to inflict massive civilian casualties.

The deaths of billions of civilians at the hand of Marco Inaros and his supporters has to be weighed a bit here. Moral high ground doesn't mean much when it's literally an extinction-level catastrophic event.

I feel like that's the thing that kind of turned my mind. A few million dead and a couple of lean years, okay. But life as we know it on Earth basically being destroyed over the course of the impact-induced "nuclear winter"? I think that changes the moral scale where you need to do something. 

Hell, even warn them that you're going to blow them away. Fuck, they can end up stuck being the ones swatting down long-range torpedoes (if they exist?)

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 It also seems like the Earth and Mars fleets are currently pinned defending their homeworlds from all the rocks and so not necessarily available to take aggressive action. 

I assumed Pallas Station was struck by some sort of long-range torpedos or massive railgun strike rather than by Earth ships, which IIRC were already pulled back by that point to defend Earth. Is that not possible

Quote

Edit to add: Perhaps also places like Ceres, Tycho, and Ganymede are thought to be necessary to the inners ongoing survival longterm, if Earth's biosphere is truly damaged beyond repair?

Forget the stations, getting access to the Ring Gate and 1,300 planets is going to be much more vital to the survival of the human species... but you're not getting to them until you starve the enemy fleet of resources and can then just jam them up with your own forces so that you can win back control of the Gate.

(I will say I did like that the MCRN is supporting Earth against the Belt. That said, I don't understand why they are completely locked up defending Earth -- they ought to be able to spare a few... unless Marco has flung some at Mars as well? Though that's less likely to cause serious issues, for obvious reasons.)

Edited December 10, 2021 by Ran

[Maltaran]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

 

(I will say I did like that the MCRN is supporting Earth against the Belt. That said, I don't understand why they are completely locked up defending Earth -- they ought to be able to spare a few... unless Marco has flung some at Mars as well? Though that's less likely to cause serious issues, for obvious reasons.)

Mars lost something like a third of its fleet to Duarte in the books, so probably don’t have anything to spare

[Ran]

2 minutes ago, Maltaran said:

Mars lost something like a third of its fleet to Duarte in the books, so probably don’t have anything to spare

I guess they can't be expected to leave Mars entirely undefended if the Free Navy has a go at them, I suppose. Between that and supporting Earth... sure. Though at this stage it's starting to feel like the scale of the disaster is such that maybe they should risk a few extra rocks hitting Earth to be able to actually do something to stop the attack.

 

[Winterfell is Burning]

It was a mostly solid premiere, but I don't know if it's the character, the actor or both (haven't read the books), but there's no way Marco Inaros is really believable as the greatest mass murderer in the history of mankind, who's nevertheless able to rally millions to his side with fanatical support. For a role like this, they either build the character much better for much longer and/or cast an actor with giant gravitas and charm, and they did neither.

Edited December 11, 2021 by Winterfell is Burning

[Kalbear]

On Mars not doing much - basically between Duarte fucking them, Inaros hurting them and their need for home protection they're basically just trying to form a government and not do anything too stupid. Their capabilities are super low at this point and their will to fight anything outside of Mars is very very low. 

I think avasarala mentions how they cant find their own dicks in their hand. 

I do think it is a bit weird how earth is not absolutely baying for vengeance after the most egregious atrocity in human history. I've thought it weird about the books and the show. It ain't like they aren't in a state of total war at this point. I believe they state that they are at war with terrorists and not belters, but it just didn't ring true to me as something they would do. 

Edited December 11, 2021 by Kalsandra

[Corvinus85]

Mars was in the midst of decommissioning a portion of its fleet. They were bleeding talent with people migrating to the Ring worlds. Then Duarte's group cannibalizes part of their war materiel to give to Marco and they make off with another part of the fleet. And finally their parliament gets blown up, though unlike the book they didn't spend time on that issue. So yep, Mars is no longer capable of fielding a significant fleet. There is a line in the show where Avasarala's aid mentions that Mars is nearly ready to field a new Donnager-class ship. I've no idea who long something like that takes to build.

1 hour ago, Winterfell is Burning said:

It was a mostly solid premiere, but I don't know if it's the character, the actor or both (haven't read the books), but there's no way Marco Inaros is really believable as the greatest mass murderer in the history of mankind, who's nevertheless able to rally millions to his side with fanatical support. For a role like this, they either build the character much better for much longer and/or cast an actor with giant gravitas and charm, and they did neither.

Well this is subjective, but I disagree. Keon Alexander has done a good job displaying Marco's charisma. His dialogue scenes in season 4 alone establish how he can sway people. Of course, we also saw that the more intelligent people tend to see through his bullshit. On that note, let me remind you who was POTUS not so long ago who still enjoys a lot of support. I believe your own country's president also falls somewhere on those lines. I find Marco really believable. 

That being said, episode 1 of this season shows how Marco's charisma overshadows his actual capabilities. 

[Ran]

Strong agree on Keon Alexander, his performance is charismatic as hell.

Re: Mars, guess I'm amazed that they could decommission their fleets so quickly, and how much of what they did was decommissioning right out and scrapping rather than mothballing (as the US did with a good chunk of its naval fleet following WWII) after having taken years to build them up.

I guess one issue is that the show has not conveyed just how many people from Earth, Mars, and the Belt have gone on to settle the Ring worlds, so it's not clear how much of that exodus impacts things for Mars specifically.

Am I wrong about the idea, BTW, that even with its fleet tied up the US could attack Ceres with long-range interplanetary weapons? Surely those must exist, right? My assumption has been that that's what they did against Pallas station.

 

 

[Corvinus85]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

I guess one issue is that the show has not conveyed just how many people from Earth, Mars, and the Belt have gone on to settle the Ring worlds, so it's not clear how much of that exodus impacts things for Mars specifically.

Am I wrong about the idea, BTW, that even with its fleet tied up the US could attack Ceres with long-range interplanetary weapons? Surely those must exist, right? My assumption has been that that's what they did against Pallas station.

In the books there are long-range torpedoes. Technically you can do it with any weapons. Calculate where Ceres will be in a few months time and shoot accordingly. But they won't be surgical strikes.

[Kalbear]

1 hour ago, Ran said:

 

Am I wrong about the idea, BTW, that even with its fleet tied up the US could attack Ceres with long-range interplanetary weapons? Surely those must exist, right? My assumption has been that that's what they did against Pallas station.

 

 

Sure, they can do that. But their options for effective damage are limited. 

Torpedoes aren't that useful against something like ceres unless you can hit certain things like shipyards. And that requires guidance and requires ceres defenses to not exist. Otherwise you're likely wasting munitions. 

You can shoot and go dark, but then you have a lot less limited ability to get to your target in any timely fashion. This is why the rocks Inaros is firing after the war has started have engines - because otherwise it takes years. 

Railguns can be shot, but again way too slow, and tungsten slugs against stations won't necessarily do much unless you have perfect aim.

Now, you can do something like fuck up Ganymede- but that basically is a course of genocide. Ganymede was already hurting as a food source after calibans war, and while you can easily wreck the domes that is really a civilian-only target and a bridge I don't think they want to cross. 

They could likely hit other stations that aren't asteroid based and do some real damage. The real issue there is that because the belt is super decentralized and it requires a LOT of weapons to hit any one station and overwhelm its defenses, it means you can't take that much out even if you do go for it. 

I'm still surprised that people aren't demanding it - even pathetic attempts. And maybe that's what Pallas was. Earth being at the bottom of the well really makes this a very asymmetrical fight, at least while their defenses aren't up to dealing with stealth rocks and they have to have their fleet back. 

[Ran]

34 minutes ago, Kalsandra said:

at least while their defenses aren't up to dealing with stealth rocks and they have to have their fleet back. 

Also a confusing bit. They mention they haven't seen stealth composite-painted asteroids in months, so that's another reason that makes it seem odd the Earth fleet is still tied up in orbital defense.

Speaking of stealth composites... with Laconia established they've lost their in to getting a hold of Martian surplus, and Mars must have cracked down on anyone who thought they could fill a gap. Laconia is either not yet setup to make military surplus available  beyond simpler products (there was a mention Medina Station needing titanium but that the "Laconian pieces" were harder to install than expected, suggesting they're armoring up the station in titanium plating or titanium reinforcements) or they're able to produce surplus but are refusing to sell it to Marco now that they have gotten what they want.

Fair point on Ceres -- it would take planet-buster type weapons. But we know Mars had those mobile missile platforms that they use to strike Earth. I'd guess Ceres would be having a pretty bad day if a MIRV with a score of nuclear warheads inside of it came at them. (Part of why I was focused on Ceres is that I'm going to assume spies on Ceres would lead everyone know that Marco was there. Realistically any sort of long-range shot would be too late, unless the railguns accelerate things to some appreciable fraction of C. But if they do... then a bunch of tungsten sabots smashing into Ceres could cause crippling damage and might by sheer luck manage to get Marco. Season 3's drama with the mobile platforms kind of made it seem like they do go very, very fast, but this may be handwaving for the purpose of making television.)