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German and Austrian politics: Twilight of the conservative parties


Luzifer's right hand
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So what exactly has Nehammer been doing in Moscow?

Meanwhile, the German president Steinmeier has been told not to visit Kyiv. That's the second snub from the Ukrainians after the ambassador refused to come to a concert at Bellevue Palace. 

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23 minutes ago, Loge said:

So what exactly has Nehammer been doing in Moscow?

Meanwhile, the German president Steinmeier has been told not to visit Kyiv. That's the second snub from the Ukrainians after the ambassador refused to come to a concert at Bellevue Palace. 

Nobody except him and Putin's people know I guess. 

He is involved in a scandal currently might just be an attempt at distracting from his own problems.

From what he told the press he tried to reason with Putin and failed. But without evidence he can say whatever he wants. For all we now he begged Putin for gas on his knees.

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1 hour ago, Loge said:

Meanwhile, the German president Steinmeier has been told not to visit Kyiv. That's the second snub from the Ukrainians after the ambassador refused to come to a concert at Bellevue Palace. 

Great! Kyiv in the middle of a war is not a tourist attraction. There is no need for a token visit from a president who brings nothing to the table. It's fine if Scholz comes for a visit with a suitcase full of tanks and whatnot. Everything else is useless. While I have full understanding for the glazial speed of the German politics because I know the realities in this country, they shouldn't dare to come empty handed. And especially don't send Steinmeier - not sure why they didn't get the message earlier. 

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12 minutes ago, kiko said:

Great! Kyiv in the middle of a war is not a tourist attraction. There is no need for a token visit from a president who brings nothing to the table. It's fine if Scholz comes for a visit with a suitcase full of tanks and whatnot. Everything else is useless. While I have full understanding for the glazial speed of the German politics because I know the realities in this country, they shouldn't dare to come empty handed. And especially don't send Steinmeier - not sure why they didn't get the message earlier. 

No, I think its bad and a propaganda victory for Putin. while Steinmeier is an idiot and was always on the wrong side, and I can personally understand why no one in Kyiv wants to see him, he is also the president, which means he is a symbol for our country and people, it doesnt do to snub him, because you symbolically snub all Germans. Really bad, doesnt help in German politics at all at the moment , and I feel that Scholz will now not be able to go to Kyiv and that the fraction in his party against more weapons got a major boost. Its bad enough with all the putinversteher and now they can feel in the right again.

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11 minutes ago, JoannaL said:

No, I think its bad and a propaganda victory for Putin. while Steinmeier is an idiot and was always on the wrong side, and I can personally understand why no one in Kyiv wants to see him, he is also the president, which means he is a symbol for our country and people, it doesnt do to snub him, because you symbolically snub all Germans. Really bad, doesnt help in German politics at all at the moment , and I feel that Scholz will now not be able to go to Kyiv and that the fraction in his party against more weapons got a major boost. Its bad enough with all the putinversteher and now they can feel in the right again.

Do people really care about the president in Germany? It is not like people voted for him or anything.

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32 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Do people really care about the president in Germany? It is not like people voted for him or anything.

Not much. But it could be seen as a snub against the country. 

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31 minutes ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

Do people really care about the president in Germany?

Basically I think people care when it serves their interests to do so.

The president said something you agree with? Great, here's the head of state making a good point why everybody should do as you say!

The president said something you disagree with? Who cares, it's just a symbolic office with no real power anyway.

 

In that respect I believe Joanna's right in that it will embolden those opposed to further aid to Ukraine or harsher sanctions.

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Ukraine is wielding a lot of soft power right now and they play their hand exceptionally well. They can't afford to show too much deference to "their betters" right now. They must aim to bend them to their will *right now*. Consequences be damned. Nobody can afford to be on the wrong side here and everyone should try to be on their side.

If Scholz is willing and able to use this momentum...I'm not so sure though. Instead of saying that he currently doesn't plan a trip to Kyiv, he could have said that he plans to go as soon as it makes sense, which unfortunately is not today or tomorrow because of reasons.And then drive a policy that makes the trip worthwhile. So not 5000 helmets again.

I have no doubt that Germany will play a big role in the later reconstruction of Ukraine, and in earlier times that would be our sole role in the war. But now is the time to show where we stand. 

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  • 1 month later...
On 3/29/2022 at 10:48 PM, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Let's see whether Wüst and Günther are off to the chopping block, too. Under normal circumstances, I wouldn't give two shits about things that happen in the Saarland. No good has ever come out of that state. Usually, the shambolic performance of the CDU and the rise of the SPD for reasons that quite frankly elude me, would be the big talking point. However...

 

Going back to this.

Nope, both survived, and increased the vote shares of the CDU. The Green party also boosted its vote shares significantly. The SPD and FDP emerged with losses from those elections.

My quick take. Regarding the SPD, the rather shortlived honeymoon with chancellor Scholz is over. Not gonna bang on about it, but like I said before, I have no idea how anybody could look at Scholz and go: yeah, this looks like solid chancellor material.  FDP lost more than half their votes in NRW, and it was a low turnout election on top. No idea, whether it was their disastrous goverment performance in the state or a response to their shenanigans in the federal goverment, that got them. Either way, a bad day for the FDP is a good day for the country. 

The result for the CDU in NRW, I'd also lay the blame fairly with Scholz. Wüst took over from Laschet, and he is really not a household name, who could come up with a strong result by himself. Ofc, the SPD candidate was as much a non-entity as Wüst.

SH partly down to a fairly popular Günther, and a fairly unknown SPD candidate (I literally had to look up his name). But the SPD dropping votes from a relatively low base, and finishing third, that can't be put down to Losse-Müller alone. Chancellor malus at work is my guess. But on the bright side. The neo-Nazi party dropped below the 5% in SH, and thus won't be present in their parliament for the next five years. 

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Well, the SPD are still doing better in the polls than they used to before Scholz. And one shouldn't forget that he doesn't lead the party, so technically he can't be held responsible for what happens at state level. But yeah, his first six months in office haven't been particularly great. Cabinet ministers from the SPD don't particularly shine either. 

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He was quite heavily engaged in the NRW campaign. To blame it on Eskens and Walter-Borjans is not gonna fly. There are issues with them, but that one was really in no small part a first verdict on Scholz.

Like I said, SH you can attribute it on Günther being quite popular. 

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Posted (edited)

I guess the FDP showed on a federal level that they are not really a party any sane young person should vote for. They pretended that they give a shit about those people during their election campaign in 2021 but they seem to have doubled down on the usual FDP topics after the government was formed.

Edited by Luzifer's right hand
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7 hours ago, Luzifer's right hand said:

I guess the FDP showed on a federal level that they are not really a party any sane young person should vote for. They pretended that they give a shit about those people during their election campaign in 2021 but they seem to have doubled down on the usual FDP topics after the government was formed.

Not just that. They were a governing party in NRW. They also had the misfortune of holding the education ministry. They took over with the promise to do better, and their performance esp. during the pandemic...disastrous was the opinion of their own voters. Guess, who got a front row seat in the NRW FDP handling the education department? Yes, young voters. So in NRW, it's a fair assumption their performance there was disqualifying enough, even without their nonsense at the federal goverment. 

SH (Kubicki's homestate) you can hopefully draw more conclusions from voters view on them on the federal level. Either way question is, what conclusion will they draw. I hope it's not we need to be more FDP.

 

8 hours ago, Loge said:

The question is, why is Scholz dragging his feet over Ukraine? Is that him or the party? He certainly isn't being held back by his coalition partners.

Because that's who he is. 

I mean, certainly, you can cook up some reasoning, that there's pretty much an age divide between, who wants more action (likesay delivery of heavy arms) and who doesn't. And the SPD has older voters than the Greens. However, fundamentally, Scholz is, who he is. Energetic, decissive, leader of the pack, all those are not exactly the attributes that come to mind, when you think of Prince Valium. Yes, I know, I have always disliked ever since he was the Senator, who allowed the police to use vomitives on (suspect) drug dealers in an attempt to overtake Ronald fucking Schill on the right, with the subsequent death of a young man. But Scholz (like Merkel) is somebody who really tries not to rock the boat. More of an administrator than a governor. Merkel just had the advantage, that she at least kept absolute dildos like Koch and Merz out. While Scholz is just useless.

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On 5/15/2022 at 10:54 PM, A Horse Named Stranger said:

No idea, whether it was their disastrous goverment performance in the state or a response to their shenanigans in the federal goverment, that got them. Either way, a bad day for the FDP is a good day for the country. 

Isn't it always the same with them? They tell people they are the ones who understand how economy and freedom work, people vote for them, they participate in government, they perform badly, they get punished harshly at the next election, they go into opposition or even don't make it into the parliament. And four or five years later they tell people they are the ones who understand how economy and freedom work, people vote for them, ... 

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Posted (edited)

Yeah, pretty much. 

In the federal election last year, they also did some micro targeting shenanigans on Sugarhill#s misinformation platform. Where they selective were the no speedlimit, no tax freedumb party (which they are) or the climate friendly party of the future (which they are not) depending on who they were targeting. I think that was a big reason how they went to second place among young voters.

Edited by A Horse Named Stranger
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9 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

In the federal election last year, they also did some micro targeting shenanigans on Sugarhill#s misinformation platform. Where they selective were the no speedlimit, no tax freedumb party (which they are) or the climate friendly party of the future (which they are not) depending on who they were targeting. I think that was a big reason how they went to second place among young voters.

That might work when your last government participation was 8 years ago and half of your voters do not even know what a Rösler, a Westerwelle or a Brüderle is, but I'm not sure it works when you are part of the government.

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3 hours ago, The Wondering Wolf said:

That might work when your last government participation was 8 years ago and half of your voters do not even know what a Rösler, a Westerwelle or a Brüderle is, but I'm not sure it works when you are part of the government.

Your faith in humanity, or the intelligence of the average voter is higher than mine. Who cares about the shitty product, when the marketing is good? :dunno:

Always remember Ferengi Rule of Acquisition 239.

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3 minutes ago, A Horse Named Stranger said:

Your faith in humanity, or the intelligence of the average voter is higher than mine. Who cares about the shitty product, when the marketing is good?

Well, in my opinion we already see that good marketing isn't enough when your performance is as bad as the FDP's. I'm sure they'll lose a lot of votes in 2025. And then again will regain a lot of votes in 2029. It's an eternal cycle. But I guess they won't drop out of parliament within the next elections, because the younger voters are more vulnerable to their marketing.

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