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Covid-19 #40: Hoping for Endings


Fragile Bird
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When I was a mere child at university doing my Journalism degree (it was a long time ago, ok?) we actually typed our stories. At the end of the article you typed the designation - 40 - to mark the end. That way the copy editor knew there were no more pages to do.

No, I lied, it’s -30- that means the end. Maybe I just felt poetic about the the fact we’ve hit the 40th thread. :blushing: :P:lmao:

I know we’re far from the end, but at least it seems like it’s in view. I hope. Good news about new drugs and cocktails that appear very effective at dealing with Covid-19. But then again, I live in a rich, Western country, no delusions about the rest of the world.

Edited by Fragile Bird
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I have been reading in the last week or so reports that some experts are cautiously thinking, for the same reasons, we will be out of this, we can be be out of this, by next spring.  As long as a new more super spreading variant doesn't come along, which has so much to do with the anti-vaxxers -- and holding firm to the vaccination proof mandate for all enclosed public gatherings, whether travel, or bars or theaters, etc.  We can see right here the difference that has made locally.  Of course I do expect this all to change quite soon, with the travel ban restrictions lifted -- the annual Village Halloween Parades which draws around 100,000, tens of thousands of them overunning my own neighborhood -- and the holidays.

 

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https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/10/18/another-winter-of-covid  [paywalled with maybe a single exception per month w/o subscription?]

Quote

 

....“Are we going to have as bad a surge this winter as last winter?” Ashish Jha, the dean of Brown University’s School of Public Health, asked. “I think we can definitively say no. But what people don’t appreciate about Delta is that it finds pockets of unvaccinated people and just rips through them. If you’re an older person living in this country, and you’re not vaccinated, it’s going to be a very bad winter.” ....

.... Any number of factors can introduce uncertainty into our prognostications, and each threatens to push “normal” beyond yet another horizon. Still, it’s possible to wrap our heads around some of the biggest issues. One is in-person contact. When societies open up, rates of infection almost always increase. In the U.S., most business closures and strict capacity restrictions are ending; in-person instruction has resumed at schools and colleges; the weather is cooling, and we are spending more time indoors. All this means that the virus will have more opportunities to spread.

The consequences of that spread will depend, in part, on how many people remain susceptible and to what extent immunity wanes. The passage of time may be especially problematic for communities with high rates of prior infection and low levels of current vaccination. A recent C.D.C. study in Kentucky found that people who had previously been infected but never got vaccinated were more than twice as likely to be reinfected as those who got immunized after contracting the virus were. Among vaccinated people, breakthrough infections, while unnerving, remain uncommon and generally mild, even with the Delta variant, but the chance that a breakthrough will develop into a serious illness seems to increase with time, as immunity ebbs, especially for older people. Our collective immunity will rise and fall, through some combination of booster shots, repeat infections, and time. “It’s like painting the Golden Gate Bridge,” Robert Wachter, the chair of medicine at the University of California, San Francisco, said. “The minute you’re done, you have to get started all over again.” Complicating all this is the possibility that a new coronavirus variant could unsettle whatever equilibrium we reach. ...

 

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Edited by Zorral
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8 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

When I was a mere child at university doing my Journalism degree (it was a long time ago, ok?) we actually typed our stories. At the end of the article you typed the designation - 40 - to mark the end. That way the copy editor knew there were no more pages to do.

I know we’re far from the end, but at least it seems like it’s in view. I hope. Good news about new drugs and cocktails that appear very effective at dealing with Covid-19. But then again, I live in a rich, Western country, no delusions about the rest of the world.

I always thought - 30- marked the end. 

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11 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I always thought - 30- marked the end. 

Maybe different countries have different conventions? I've definitely seen both -30- and ### used to denote the end of a story, but not -40-, but I've worked exclusively in U.S.-based publications. 

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57 minutes ago, maarsen said:

I always thought - 30- marked the end. 

 

43 minutes ago, Xray the Enforcer said:

Maybe different countries have different conventions? I've definitely seen both -30- and ### used to denote the end of a story, but not -40-, but I've worked exclusively in U.S.-based publications. 

:rofl::rofl::rofl::rofl:

:spank:

I am rolling on the floor laughing my guts out. 
It is -30-.

Shit. Murderbot, what have you done?

I’m sorry, I can’t even come up with a reason for the brain fog, I’m laughing so hard.

 

 

 

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According to BBC article What difference will jabbing young teens make? - BBC News

For young males the risk of myocarditis is greater than the reduction of ICU admission and hospitalisation with a second jab of Pfizer / Moderna. So for young males it would appear that a second P/M jab may increase hospitalisation.  The first jab reduces overall risk of hospitalisation and ICU admission, so on balance they should still get a single shot, but if there is going to be a second shot perhaps switching to a different non-mRNA vaccine might be better.

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4 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

According to BBC article What difference will jabbing young teens make? - BBC News

For young males the risk of myocarditis is greater than the reduction of ICU admission and hospitalisation with a second jab of Pfizer / Moderna. So for young males it would appear that a second P/M jab may increase hospitalisation.  The first jab reduces overall risk of hospitalisation and ICU admission, so on balance they should still get a single shot, but if there is going to be a second shot perhaps switching to a different non-mRNA vaccine might be better.

Interesting. This comes at the heels of the suspension of Moderna in Nordic countries for younger men. Given that the risk of severe COVID in adolescents is very low, one dose might suffice, which is the UK's approach.

Switching vaccines would not help unfortunately. The only options in the West are vector vaccines (J&J and AZ) which carry their own risks. There are no traditional vaccines being used in developed countries, which is a shame.

These news will of course concern everybody who have children.

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The 4 types of covid vaccines in a snapshot-

https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/emea/four-types-covid-19-vaccine-snapshot

1. RNA or mRNA

Pfizer, Moderna

2. Viral Vector

Johnson & Johnson, Astra Zeneca, Sputnik, CanSino

3. Whole Virus

Sinopharm, Sinovax, Indian Covaxin

4. Protein Subunit

Novavax, Soberana 02

Check the link I posted at the top for details.

I will personally be getting the Mrna Pfizer booster when it's available.

I believe the increased risk factor of myocardial(sp) heart trouble has only been shown to apply to younger people, under 30, in the Finland study?

 

 

Edited by DireWolfSpirit
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3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

The 4 types of covid vaccines in a snapshot-

https://www.healthcareitnews.com/news/emea/four-types-covid-19-vaccine-snapshot

1. RNA or mRNA

Pfizer, Moderna

2. Viral Vector

Johnson & Johnson, Astra Zeneca

You forgot Sputnik and CanSino here

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

3. Whole Virus

Sinopharm, Sinovax

Also, Indian Covaxin which was just approved for kids. Sinovac and Sinopharm are being used for kids in China and elsewhere.

 

3 hours ago, DireWolfSpirit said:

4. Protein Subunit

Novavax

The Cuban vaccine Soberana 02 can be also classified as a subunit vaccine (but also as a conjugate vaccine) and it's also being used in kids. 

 

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5 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

You forgot Sputnik and CanSino here

Also, Indian Covaxin which was just approved for kids. Sinovac and Sinopharm are being used for kids in China and elsewhere.

 

The Cuban vaccine Soberana 02 can be also classified as a subunit vaccine (but also as a conjugate vaccine) and it's also being used in kids. 

 

Thank you for additions.

They weren't a case of forgetting, most of us in the U.S. are not even aware of the complete list of vaccines for the virus.

I was only highlighting the ones listed in the article should anyone else want to read the link.

I'm guessing more people are going to start questioning (in light of the Nordic study) which, if any, booster is best for them.

And of course we are limited in what's been approved and where.

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50% good news on my teacher friends. One of them is getting her vaccinations. The other I am not sure about, I hope she will but she appears to be more deeply influenced by anti-vaxxers around her, so she might choose the martyr's path for a bad cause and quit being a teacher.

On what vaccines will be approved here, I kind of assume that our government is going to be kind of racist / ideologist and only approve vaccines that have been developed and approved in the "west" (i.e. Western Europe, USA, Australia). So if the Chinese, Russian, Indian and Cuban vaccines don't get approved outside of their traditional spheres of alliances then I don't see them ever getting approved here, no matter how robust their evidence for efficacy and safety.

Quote

The number of people with Covid-19 who were infectious while in the community is growing as restrictions have loosened, which an expert says is a “concerning” sign.

On average, 65.7 per cent of cases reported in the past seven days – during Auckland's first week at ‘step 1’ of alert level 3 – were infectious while in the community, leading to exposure events, Ministry of Health data shows.

This is up from an average of 52.4 per cent the seven days prior, Auckland’s second week at the stricter alert level 3 settings, and 44.7 per cent in the region's first full week at level 3.

I have to say I do not like this direction of travel. But I am as close to 100% certain as it's possible to be without direct knowledge that the government knew this would be the pattern and therefore it was a deliberate decision to lose (loosen?) control of the outbreak, to some extent, and therefore that means the government gave up on a zero cases elimination much earlier than they have admitted.

Without searching the previous thread, I said a few weeks back that I thought there was a chance the govt has decided to let the outbreak bubble away instead of really try to stamp it out (that was kind of my thinking when the govt went from alert level 4 to alert level 3 too early to ensure elimination in my opinion). I think this data shows that at the time I was wildly speculating without any hard evidence (i.e. I am not calling this an I told you so, I was right all along moment) that this is actually what the government was thinking.

Also some of our leading independent epidemiologists are telling all New Zealanders that they should expect to encounter COVID-19 before Christmas. By that I assume they mean that it will be present somewhere in their local community / city, not that everyone will actually have been exposed to infection.

Edited by The Anti-Targ
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Sputnik is unfortunately not very popular in Russia, as they have a new wave of Covid19 with a very high number of cases/casualties. I also wonder how effective it is, but they don't seem to provide data on how many people fell ill despite having been vaccinated with Sputnik.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/russia-reports-record-daily-covid-19-death-toll-973-2021-10-12/

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