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Covid-19 #40: Hoping for Endings


Fragile Bird

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13 hours ago, Zorral said:

So, it looks like Moderna boosters will be available in December?

For all over 18s?  Rather than over 65s, which should be available over the next 2 weeks?

Pfizer/BioNTech has also submitted data to the EMA for its child Covid-19 vaccine,  The dose is a third the adult size.  I think the US is supposed to be approving that in early November?

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/pfizer-biontech-submit-data-to-ema-for-child-covid-19-vaccine-1.4701531

15 hours ago, Paxter said:

Russia and the US are both looking rather bad right now on a per capita basis, putting volumes to one side.

True!

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Big vaxathon here today, seems like about 2.5% of the national population turned out to get either their first or second jab. I hope that's not just people who just brought forward their vaccination and that next week the number of people getting the jab drops away to next to nothing.

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5 hours ago, Padraig said:

For all over 18s?  Rather than over 65s, which should be available over the next 2 weeks?

I think "December" because then it 8 months will have passed since my second inoculation, which was, at least back some ago, the time recommended to go by before boosting.  

 

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Oh my, apparently the US has announced that Canadians vaccinated with mixed vaccines will be recognized as vaccinated individuals.

Considering 3.4 M Canadians have some combination of AZ/Moderna, AZ/Pfizer or Pfizer/Moderna, there are a lot of relieved people out there.

My cynical side says that Canadians spend $6.5 B every winter in Florida alone, and many more billions in cross-border shopping trips, that you knew this had to happen. There are American border towns right across the continent that are just dying because of all the missing Canadians.

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1 hour ago, Zorral said:

I think "December" because then it 8 months will have passed since my second inoculation, which was, at least back some ago, the time recommended to go by before boosting.  

Ah ok.  I thought you were talking more generally.

I did see some mention that the FDA is starting to look at lowering the booster age (from 65 to maybe 40) but nothing decided on that yet.

Israel has boosted 44% of its population.   A lot.  And COVID rates have declined significantly.  But it took 2 months to get its last wave under control.  So some of that decline is just the normal ebb and flow of COVID.  Although, a booster obviously had a positive effect also.

The FDA has also said it will ask its outside experts to meet in late November to scrutinize Merck's pill to treat COVID-19.  So that might be approved in early December.

https://fortune.com/2021/10/14/fda-will-not-make-a-decision-on-merck-covid-antiviral-pill-until-december/

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1 hour ago, Fragile Bird said:

Oh my, apparently the US has announced that Canadians vaccinated with mixed vaccines will be recognized as vaccinated individuals.

Considering 3.4 M Canadians have some combination of AZ/Moderna, AZ/Pfizer or Pfizer/Moderna, there are a lot of relieved people out there.

My cynical side says that Canadians spend $6.5 B every winter in Florida alone, and many more billions in cross-border shopping trips, that you knew this had to happen. There are American border towns right across the continent that are just dying because of all the missing Canadians.

If I was a Snowbird who wintered in FL, I'd be looking for alternatives. I hear Cuba is nice.

8 minutes ago, A True Kaniggit said:

I just watched a commercial offering Louisianians a $100 gift if they would get their first vaccine shot.

Sure. Pay the ignorant  to do what the rest of us did over half a year ago. 

Yeah, if Albert's experience is any indication, it won't do much. There was a small rise in vaccinations after the bribe, but that's being charitable. That trend was not significant and it started weeks before the bribe was even announced. Vaccination passports yielded a much more significant boost. 

7 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Big vaxathon here today, seems like about 2.5% of the national population turned out to get either their first or second jab. I hope that's not just people who just brought forward their vaccination and that next week the number of people getting the jab drops away to next to nothing.

 That's fantastic. You guys are killing it.

I see that Japan's vaccination curve is still going strong. They'll overtake Canada in a week or two at this rate. 

 

As for Alberta, Positivity rate, daily infections, ICU and non-ICU hospitalizations are trending down. They are still at an insanely high level, but I think we're past the peak. Assuming our provincial leadership doesn't repeat their previous mistakes of doing a premature victory lap, we should be fine in a few weeks. We might even get 80%+ fully vaccinated rates in every age cohort by the end of the year. 

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On 10/15/2021 at 7:57 PM, Padraig said:

Although, you should look at the fatality time series for Romania.  It is beyond scary.  That really shouldn't happen in a country with 19m people and access to vaccinations.

I've been expecting for weeks the shit to hit the fan in Romania and Bulgaria, considering the ridiculously low level of vaccination they have. I wouldn't be surprised if it turns into an absolute catastrophe like the ones in N. Italy and Madrid in early 2020 or India early this year.

I mean, seriously, what the fuck are people thinking? Sure, you can mistrust your own government, but when you have many examples of other countries being wrecked by covid, and billions of people getting jabbed, including entire countries like Spain or Portugal, you have to be quite thick to still only take into account the corrupt morons in your government.

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3 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

My cynical side says that Canadians spend $6.5 B every winter in Florida alone, and many more billions in cross-border shopping trips, that you knew this had to happen. There are American border towns right across the continent that are just dying because of all the missing Canadians.

Hard to do much shopping in cross-border settings so long as the testing requirement is in. Fraud aside, it’s a bit of a pain and costly to get the test. I’ll be interested to see if Canada holds the line on that one.

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Considering how much reporting seen here of the proliferation of colds and flu in Europe this fall, it strikes me with the US opening to all the vaccinated from Elsewheres on Nov 9th, it's a particularly good thing to get my flu shot next week!  Plus that 400,000 viewers of annual Halloween Parade that will be kicking off right down here too.

 

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On 10/14/2021 at 8:07 PM, mnedel said:

Meanwhile in Serbia, which has a lower population than Hungary, we are averaging around 52 deaths per day. The vaccination rate is around 50% and stagnating and the government is doing absolutely nothing. Everything is open and the young are going out partying and infecting their parents. My best friend’s sister got covid from her college student son last week and she is now in a hospital on a ventilator. Did I mention that the survival rate of ventilator patients in Serbia is an abysmal 10-20%? I feal so angry, uh. 

I’m terribly sorry about this. It’s sad and upsetting, especially there’s very little to do at this stage of the wave other than ride it out and hope it peaks and passes soon. Hospitalized and ventilator patient survival rate is very similar here as well. 

On 10/14/2021 at 9:06 PM, Knight Of Winter said:

Not to criticize you, it just seems to me that such a statement is mostly a function of whichever metric you use. If you compare Hungary you western Europe, then yes - Hungary is doing less than ok. However, keep in mind that western Europe is one of richest parts of the world, with great healthcare and educated population who are willing to vaccinate in large percentage - and with effective vaccines, nonetheless. Compared to western Europe, almost everyone is doing poorly.

Compared to rest of the world (or even rest of Europe), Hungary is much above average. It has 61% vaccinated population (57 for Europe, 47 for world), presumably it has many more vaccines for unvaccinated who change their minds, and while it does have slight increase in number of both cases and fatalities, it's still below European average. And waaaay below horrific wave it suffered during April this year.

There are much more worrisome countries, even as far as only Europe is concerned. Both Serbia (mnedel's post above) and Romania have astronomically high rise in number of new cases. And while Bulgaria is not there yet, with only 20% of vaccinated population, I fear it's just a matter of time.
 

A realistic basis for comparison for Hungary is indeed Eastern Europe, Russia and the Balkan. (There’s nothing wrong with that, it’s just something to be (self-)aware of, are we ourselves aren’t always so.) 

the sad thing about the vaccination rate is that the people who wanted to get a vaccine because they believe it’s the way to gain some control over the pandemic got their vaccines back in March - May when the first supplies arrived and were fully vaccinated by end of June. That’s when the rate plateaued at 56% and climbed only 4% in the past 5 months. That 4% is the people who didn’t want a vaccine but also don’t want to spend money on testing to travel abroad and picked a shot as the “lesser evil”. If we reimposed some restrictions, it would certainly cause public outcry but potentially also coerce another 4% into vaccination just so they could go to clubs and restaurants and other entertainment facilities. 

Ukraine, Serbia and Romania are all in terribly worrying predicaments around us, and set a warning of what can (and will) happen here as well. It’s impossible to tell if the vaccination rate in itself will be enough to keep the curve of the fourth wave flat. There’s certainly nothing else (such as public care, discipline, mandatory restrictions or a better prepared healthcare system, or generally healthier population) we could put faith in. Some predictions say we’ll stay open and ride out a flattened autumn wave, other claim that we’ll see  tens of thousands of cases per day. Whether we’ll see higher or lower death rate compared to April is also guesswork, predictions and professional opinions go both ways. 

On 10/14/2021 at 4:47 PM, Padraig said:

I think that is already starting to happen.  Spain, France and Italy still look fine but places like Denmark, Netherlands, Ireland are showing signs of a new bad trend.

And while Hungary's overall case numbers are still ok, fatalities are bad enough now.  Around 75 people dieing every week for a country the size of Hungary is not good.  Western Europe looks much more secure on that metric.  Vaccination matters.  But yes, the bordering countries with Hungary are very bad.

https://reopen.europa.eu/en

mortality rate has always been disastrous here and that’s not down to vaccines or lack there of. All the factors that make it are still with us and will be for at least another or even two generations and we will always be 30-50 years behind Western Europe.

On 10/14/2021 at 10:06 PM, Zorral said:

I am confused by an opinion piece published in one of the papers here today, by an immunocompromised individual, who says his civil rights are abrogated by vaccination mandates for entertainment venues.  He can't get vaccinated so he's locked out.

This is where my confusion comes in.  Immunocompromised, he's all the more likely to contract covid-19 w/o the protection of vaccination and have it critically, with much higher chances of dying from it.  He can also pass it on to others.

It's rotten he can't get vaccinated, and would if he could, but why is he thinking he won't be in danger if he goes into concert hall or (literally) underground comedy club w/o vaccination?

It’s indeed a very frustrating situation for him. Certainly he wouldn’t be safe with or without a vaccine and it’s advisable for him not go to concerts and clubs in any way. 

Back in April-May, Facebook was exploding with public outrage over the freshly introduced vaccination IDs, which were required to enter public indoor spaces up until mid June. People were ready to downright rebel against this “breach” of their constitutional rights and there had been legal debates over whether the state is allowed to limit the individual freedom of unvaccinated people in this way. (Some of these people were unvaccinated because they were still waiting for (sometimes the preferred) vaccine and some because they didn’t want any vaccine at all).
 

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Oh no. Not the cuddly, decorated war criminal who helped kill millions of people. The man who, in the build up to the illegal invasion of Iraq, taught the world that Americans have no idea how to pronounce the name, 'Colin'.

I would say RIP, but this guy is probably heading directly to the Bad Place. Or at least, he would be if it actually existed.

 

 

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2 minutes ago, Spockydog said:

Oh no. Not the cuddly, decorated war criminal who helped kill millions of people. The man who, in the build up to the illegal invasion of Iraq, taught the world that Americans have no idea how to pronounce the name, 'Colin'.

I would say RIP, but this guy is probably heading directly to the Bad Place. Or at least, he would be if it actually existed.

 

 

It wasn’t a comment made for sympathy, it was a comment about Covid not giving a damn who you are. He was fully vaccinated.

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