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Covid-19 #40: Hoping for Endings


Fragile Bird

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38 minutes ago, RhaenysBee said:

And how’s that working out for them?
from where I stand the public morale and opinion is that the pandemic over. In this climate people’d grab torches and pitchforks if anybody told them to get their asses home again. Even though someone absolutely should. 

I think it's working...OK so far?

Take Italy as an example of a reasonably cautious customer. The Green Pass (vaccine passport) is in full effect for a lot of settings, including for all workplaces as of this week. Wearing a face mask is mandatory in indoor public places. Night clubs are at 50% capacity indoors. Daily cases are at 4.1 per 100k people, currently (and probably) at the end of a downward trend. As a comparison, the UK is at 66 per 100k, Germany at about 14.  

That's not to say that these measures will be enough to stave off the next surge of cases and hospitalizations. But they aren't treating the pandemic as "over" by any stretch. 

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1 hour ago, Paxter said:

That's not to say that these measures will be enough to stave off the next surge of cases and hospitalizations. But they aren't treating the pandemic as "over" by any stretch. 

Right.  Countries that left in a reasonable amount of restrictions should be much better off going forward.  Reversing from practically no restrictions is going to be psychologically difficult.

6 hours ago, rotting sea cow said:

There are a couple of problems regarding variant specific vaccines.

I probably got carried away with that point.  Biontech/Pfizer released a study today suggesting that it was 95.6% effective (compared to those who only got their initial 2 vaccines).  That is impressive. There have been a few studies now suggesting something like that, so I should believe it!   No need for variant specific vaccines (never point your points) if you can hit 96%!

https://www.irishtimes.com/business/health-pharma/biontech-pfizer-boosters-show-95-6-efficacy-against-covid-1.4706724 

7 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

So someone (an actual authority figure who does press conferences about covid but I don’t know his exact title) says that roughly 45% of hospitalized patients are vaccinated, though this is not an official number

Without looking at the numbers, I imagine that a high proportion of older people got vaccinated in Hungary?  Older people remain most susceptible to COVID, whether they are vaccinated or not.   Unvaccinated people are obviously more susceptible but if the number of old unvaccinated people is quite small and the number of old vaccinated people is far bigger, then Maths will tell you that a lot of vaccinated old people will get seriously ill.  So yes, 45% of people being vaccinated makes a lot of sense.  If tragic.

Hopefully, the fatality rate will be a lot lower.

Edited to add: And apparently vaccine donation is stuck in a bureacratic nightmare.  Depressing.

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/exclusive-germany-may-miss-covid-19-vaccine-donation-goal-blames-manufacturers-2021-10-19/

Quote

In a letter on Monday to the European Commission's Health Emergency Preparedness and Response Authority (HERA), health ministry state secretary Thomas Steffen said there were "ongoing bureaucratic, logistical and legal problems" imposed by vaccine makers on EU countries wanting to donate surplus shots.

Steffen said these factors made "a quick response to international requests for help almost impossible."

And this is a more general article about how developing vaccines needs to be fixed.

https://www.ft.com/content/4082414f-3635-4f37-90ed-a26c2f489c26

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Major overhaul of our control system announced today. We'll be moving from alert levels to a traffic light system. Most significantly there will no longer be broad lockdowns at any traffic light colour. However the traffic light system won't be implemented until every region in the country is at 90% of the eligible population fully vaxed, or 29 November. on 29 November if we are still some way off getting to 90% in every region I guess the govt will need to think about what to do. My guess is we'll never get to 90% in every region, or at least not within a reasonable timeframe to implement the traffic light system for those regions to get rewarded for achieving or exceeding the target.

I think on 29 Nov the govt will implement the traffic light system and just place different regions on different colours based on vax %. If we were to get to 90% across all regions the country outside of Auckland would go straight to orange, and then move to red or green depending on how well the disease is controlled. If / when Auckland gets to 90% is will go to red.

For the most part no business will be required to use vaccine passports, but businesses that don;t use them will be restricted in what they can do based on the traffic light colour. Some businesses or services will be mandated to use vaccine passports (care of vulnerable people maybe?), and some businesses will be mandated NOT to use vaccine passports. Supermarkets, gas stations and some essential public services that need face to face contact are examples of places that will not be allowed to use vaccine passports as a condition of entry / service.

Right now there are only 5 localities that are at 90% single jabbed, and one of them is a remote offshore Island with a total eligible population of 180 people, interestingly it's first jab rate is 112%, visitors I imagine. And even with that miraculous number of first jabs it's still not quite at 90% double jabbed. 

It's going to be a challenging goal.

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https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/conservative-host-candace-owens-calls-for-us-to-invade-australia-to-free-people-from-tyranny/news-story/9a487acac0dbafefaa0945d2aa7284cc

Conservative host Candace Owens calls for US to invade Australia to free people from ‘tyranny’

A US commentator has gone on a tirade against Australia’s “tyrannical” Covid restrictions and suggested the US should send in the troops.

 

A conservative US commentator has suggested America should “invade” to liberate Australians from “tyrannical” Covid-19 restrictions, likening the country to the early stages of a dictatorship under Hitler or Stalin.

ARTICLE CONTINUES...

 

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13 hours ago, Padraig said:

Without looking at the numbers, I imagine that a high proportion of older people got vaccinated in Hungary?  Older people remain most susceptible to COVID, whether they are vaccinated or not.   Unvaccinated people are obviously more susceptible but if the number of old unvaccinated people is quite small and the number of old vaccinated people is far bigger, then Maths will tell you that a lot of vaccinated old people will get seriously ill.  So yes, 45% of people being vaccinated makes a lot of sense.  If tragic.

In august it was 77% for 60-69, 85% for 70-79 and 74% for 80+. I can’t find more up to date or concrete info. I remember there was a campaign in which GPs personally approached elderly people in rural areas who can’t really be reached with billboards, YouTube ads and the like. It’d be nice to know the demographic data of hospitalized patients, but I don’t think it’s published. 

this morning I heard that unis might close after autumn break. That’d be very helpful. 

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14 minutes ago, Filippa Eilhart said:

:eek: wow, thanks so much for this! I always knew I was hopeless at data research. And no, I didn’t expect that there’d be significant difference indeed. :/ 

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6 hours ago, RhaenysBee said:

In august it was 77% for 60-69, 85% for 70-79 and 74% for 80+.

Ok.  Only three quarters of people over 80 vaccinated.  I'd be curious whether that 45% figure becomes "official" then.  It does seem high given those stats.  Maybe the person was talking about a particular city or particular hospital.

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The WaPo put up links to where people can find covid vaccine boosters via one's zip code.  It breaks them down too, according to the type of vaccine one is looking for.  Now, if that dashboard is honest there seem to be several walking-distance locations where I can make an appointment to get the Moderna booster.  However, now that there are no restrictions on who can go for boosters maybe it will become like last winter when the vaccines became available and getting an appointment was damned near impossible?

https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/interactive/2021/covid-booster-eligibility-moderna-pfizer-jj/?itid=hp-top-table-main

 

 

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10 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

One can only hope she would be the first casualty on some Aussie beach.......

Oh wait.....you mean she wants "other" people to go and fight for her contrived causes?

Sure Candace lead the charge then.

Such a flippant, disrespectful, comments to make about a great allie.

It's cringe worthy before any other descriptions.

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4 hours ago, Zorral said:

However, now that there are no restrictions on who can go for boosters maybe it will become like last winter when the vaccines became available and getting an appointment was damned near impossible?

What do you mean there are no restrictions? As far as I can tell, the restrictions are unchanged except that Pfizer and Moderna are now on exactly the same footing and anyone who got Johnson & Johnson can get the booster. Here is a CNN link:

Quote

"For individuals who received a Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccine, the following groups are eligible for a booster shot at 6 months or more after their initial series," it said.

They include people:

• 65 years and older

• Age 18+ who live in long-term care settings

• Age 18+ who have underlying medical conditions

• Age 18+ who work or live in high-risk settings

"For the nearly 15 million people who got the Johnson & Johnson COVID-19 vaccine, booster shots are also recommended for those who are 18 and older and who were vaccinated two or more months ago," it added.

 

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8 minutes ago, Altherion said:

What do you mean there are no restrictions? As far as I can tell, the restrictions are unchanged except that Pfizer and Moderna are now on exactly the same footing and anyone who got Johnson & Johnson can get the booster. Here is a CNN link:

 

Maybe referring to the fact that it is rumored to be going to opened up to people 40 and up?

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48 minutes ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

Maybe referring to the fact that it is rumored to be going to opened up to people 40 and up?

Yes. And as well --

https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2021/10/22/covid-delta-variant-live-updates/

Quote

 

Jeff Zients, the White House coronavirus response coordinator, said more than 70 million Americans are now eligible to receive coronavirus vaccine booster shots following the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s sign-off on booster shots for Moderna and Johnson & Johnson coronavirus vaccines.

“More than 120 million Americans will become eligible for a booster in the coming months,” he said at a news briefing Friday. “This includes over 60 million vaccinated with Moderna and J&J, on top of the 60 million vaccinated with Pfizer.”

 

"Covid Live Updates: States and Pharmacies Face New Challenges in U.S. Booster Rollout"

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2021/10/22/world/covid-vaccine-boosters?

Quote

.... According to the C.D.C., certain groups of people who received their second dose of an mRNA vaccine six or more months ago are now eligible for a booster. Those who qualify are people 65 and older, and those 18 and older who live in long-term care, or have underlying medical conditions, or work or live in settings placing them at high risk of infection. For those who received the single-shot Johnson & Johnson vaccine, anyone 18 and older who was vaccinated two or more months ago is eligible. The Moderna booster, whether people originally got that company’s vaccine or either of the other two, will be a half-dose shot. ....

 

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It's disappointing that boosters are allegedly needed so soon after vaccination.  I got the Pfizer vaccine, and according to the Israeli data, it begins to lose efficacy after only 2 months and is basically down to 20%.  

I assume it is only a matter of time before boosters are mandated just like the vaccines have been.  

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19 minutes ago, Cas Stark said:

It's disappointing that boosters are allegedly needed so soon after vaccination.  I got the Pfizer vaccine, and according to the Israeli data, it begins to lose efficacy after only 2 months and is basically down to 20%.  

I assume it is only a matter of time before boosters are mandated just like the vaccines have been.  

Source?

https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/pfizerbiontech-covid-19-vaccine-effectiveness-drops-after-6-months-study-2021-10-04/

Quote

 

Oct 4 (Reuters) - The effectiveness of the Pfizer Inc (PFE.N)/BioNTech SE vaccine in preventing infection by the coronavirus dropped to 47% from 88% six months after the second dose, according to data published on Monday that U.S. health agencies considered when deciding on the need for booster shots.

The data, which was published in the Lancet medical journal, had been previously released in August ahead of peer review.

The analysis showed that the vaccine's effectiveness in preventing hospitalization and death remained high at 90% for at least six months, even against the highly contagious Delta variant of the coronavirus.

 

Efficacy wanes against preventing infection and stays fairly high in preventing hospitalization and death. That seems pretty good to me -- I'm pretty happy with a 90% reduction in preventing hospitalization and death on top of closer to 50% for preventing infection.

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14 hours ago, Which Tyler said:

https://www.news.com.au/entertainment/tv/conservative-host-candace-owens-calls-for-us-to-invade-australia-to-free-people-from-tyranny/news-story/9a487acac0dbafefaa0945d2aa7284cc

 

Quote

 

Conservative host Candace Owens calls for US to invade Australia to free people from ‘tyranny’

A US commentator has gone on a tirade against Australia’s “tyrannical” Covid restrictions and suggested the US should send in the troops.

 

A conservative US commentator has suggested America should “invade” to liberate Australians from “tyrannical” Covid-19 restrictions, likening the country to the early stages of a dictatorship under Hitler or Stalin.

ARTICLE CONTINUES...

 

I do love how the URL takes you to the entertainment section of the website.

Perhaps the only thing she knows about Australian politics is that the country is governed by the Liberal Party. So, surely because its got "liberal" in the name it must be to the left of the US Democrats and hence hard out communists.

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2 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

I do love how the URL takes you to the entertainment section of the website.

Perhaps the only thing she knows about Australian politics is that the country is governed by the Liberal Party. So, surely because its got "liberal" in the name it must be to the left of the US Democrats and hence hard out communists.

Perennial problem explaining to northern hemisphere people that the Liberal party is our conservative party.

And to confuse things even more? Our Labour party is spelled Labor. 

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6 minutes ago, Paxter said:

Perennial problem explaining to northern hemisphere people that the Liberal party is our conservative party.

And to confuse things even more? Our Labour party is spelled Labor. 

And do the toilets really flush the opposite way down there?

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