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Covid-19 #40: Hoping for Endings


Fragile Bird

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https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02947-z

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Paediatricians and families in the United States are eagerly waiting to see whether the Food and Drug Administration (FDA) will authorize a COVID-19 vaccine for the nation’s roughly 28 million 5- to 11-year-olds. Yesterday, an FDA advisory committee reviewed data from a clinical trial testing a low-dose version of the vaccine made by Pfizer and BioNTech on children in that age group — and voted nearly unanimously to recommend that the FDA grant the shot emergency approval.

Anticipating that the FDA and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) will soon give the vaccine the thumbs up, and that distribution to children will begin in the coming weeks, infectious-disease researchers are now looking ahead to how immunizing 5- to 11-year-olds — the largest group of people in the United States not yet eligible for the vaccine — will change the course of the pandemic.

Hopefully the approval comes very soon and that we follow suit before the end of the year.

@Deadlines? What Deadlines? There have been some projections done for when we will get to 90%. The first local health area to get to 90% is expected to be by 9 Nov. The last local health area to get to 90% is expected to be by 18 January. It's no coincidence that this area has a large rural component and a high Maori population. There is vaccine access inequality here which the govt is not doing a brilliant job at trying to address.

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https://arstechnica.com/science/2021/10/covid-trial-using-antidepressant-cut-short-due-to-apparent-effectiveness/

This might be promising, or it might be nothing. A bit early to tell. Still it's good to be continuing to hunt for cheap therapies that are going to be effective at reducing hospitalisation and death from COVID-19.

Who knows, maybe just making people less depressed / improve their mood, actually has an influence on the immune response to the disease. After all, if placebo effects are real then that means state of mind can influence overall physical health. Still, don't go out stockpiling this stuff. Might be a total red herring in the end. I'm paying attention to this one because it is not being touted as a potential miracle cure (unlike some other drugs), just a potentially very useful tool in the treatment arsenal.

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Despite the wide availability of vaccines, the most recent surge in COVID-19 cases left several US states struggling to provide adequate health care to their citizens. The situation reinforces the potential value of drugs like molnupiravir, which reduce the need for hospitalization among those with COVID-19. But monupiravir will be expensive and will likely be difficult to supply globally for some time. So ongoing trials that test existing drugs for effectiveness against COVID-19 can still provide significant value.

One of those trials has just produced some promising results. A cheap generic drug, developed as an antidepressant, appears to reduce hospitalization rates. While the effect was limited, it was clear enough to cause the trial to be cut short.

In this case, both the treatment and placebo arms of the trial had about 750 participants who were infected with SARS-CoV-2, were experiencing symptoms, and had at least one risk factor for severe disease. The primary outcome that was measured was the need for emergency hospital treatment. Brazil, where the trial took place, has frequently experienced surges of cases that limit access to hospitals, so treatment in emergency care facilities was considered equivalent to hospitalization.

The primary outcome (needing emergency treatment) saw a clear but weak difference between the two groups, with 11 percent in the fluvoxamine group and 16 percent of the placebo group reaching that milestone. This translates into treating 20 people in order to avert one person needing emergency treatment, or a relative risk of 0.73. The treatment group saw a single death, while 12 people died in the placebo group—also a significant difference.

11 deaths vs 1 death seems like a pretty bug deal if it can be attributed to the treatment. The trial was also cut short because they felt the effect was significant enough to start treating everyone in the trial with the drug rather than have half of the people possibly suffering unnecessarily.

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2 hours ago, The Anti-Targ said:

https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-02947-z

Hopefully the approval comes very soon and that we follow suit before the end of the year.

@Deadlines? What Deadlines? There have been some projections done for when we will get to 90%. The first local health area to get to 90% is expected to be by 9 Nov. The last local health area to get to 90% is expected to be by 18 January. It's no coincidence that this area has a large rural component and a high Maori population. There is vaccine access inequality here which the govt is not doing a brilliant job at trying to address.

That's actually good news. One or two areas that haven't crossed the 90% threshold is probably fine as long as they're close and the country as a whole has. 

I was looking at the NZ health website and they have information on regional vaccination rates closer to the bottom of the page. Overall, I'd say regional parity is pretty good. Northland and Tairawhiti (whatever those are) are the only regions below 80% for eligible first doses (79% & 77% respectively). Several regions are at 90+% for first doses.

Alberta is nowhere near that. There are "local geographic areas" (what a dumb name) where rates for 12+ are hovering around 70%. Some are even lower. Individually they're sparsely populated but combined they represent 150k-250k people.

Our vaccination rate has stabilized at around 2300/day for first doses. Assuming that rate holds, for an eligible population of 3,761,140, we will vaccinate 1% every 16 days. But I don't think it will hold. We stand at 86.8% now. There is no chance 12+ gets to 90% this year.

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3 minutes ago, Deadlines? What Deadlines? said:

That's good news. One or two areas that haven't crossed the 90% threshold is probably fine as long as they're close and the country as a whole has. 

I was looking at the NZ health website and they have information on regional vaccination rates closer to the bottom of the page. Overall, I'd say regional parity is pretty good. Northland and Tairawhiti (whatever those are) are the only regions below 80% for eligible first doses (79% & 77% respectively). Several regions are at 90+% for first doses.

Alberta is nowhere near that. There are "local geographic areas" (what a dumb name) where rates for 12+ are hovering around 70%. Some are even lower. Individually they're sparsely populated but combined they represent 150k-250k people.

Our vaccination rate has stabilized at around 2300/day for first doses. Assuming that rate holds, for an eligible population of 3,761,140, we will vaccinate 1% every 16 days. But I don't think it will hold. We stand at 86.8% now. There is no chance 12+ gets to 90% this year.

Do you have stats on First Nations and Inuit vaccination rates?

Northland is literally what it says on the label. Tairawhiti is a little harder to explain unless you know a bit about NZ geography. Its southern boundary is more or less where we (Rocket Labs ackshully) launch space rockets. Its Northern and Eastern boundaries are the Pacific Ocean and its western boundary is a mountain range called Te Uruwera, which literally means "the burnt penis". The table you were looking at pretty much puts the health regions kinda sorta in order of north to south. If you want to track how our local health regions are doing with Vax rates I'm in the Wairarapa (for reference, James Cameron owns a farm somewhere around here, but more importantly this area is where the outdoor parts of the path of the dead scenes were filmed for ROTK), my place of work is in Capital and Coast, and I believe @The Marquis de Leech is in Southern. I don't know about other NZers on the board.

At present the govt policy is to not move the country to the new traffic light COVID management system (which eliminates lockdowns as a tool except for extreme situations and will only ever be localised) until all regions are at 90%. But I can see the govt relaxing from that policy a bit if the whole country apart from a couple of low population density regions are at 90% and those regions are in the mid-80s.

I was very glad to see that our big get out the vax day a few weeks back didn't lead to a rebound drop in daily vaccinations. Nationally we're running at about 1% very 8-9 days for first jabs (always quite a drop on weekends) and about 1% every 2-3 days for second jabs. I expect the second jab rate to fall off somewhat as it gets close to 90%.

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16 minutes ago, The Anti-Targ said:

Do you have stats on First Nations and Inuit vaccination rates?

Northland is literally what it says on the label. Tairawhiti is a little harder to explain unless you know a bit about NZ geography. Its southern boundary is more or less where we (Rocket Labs ackshully) launch space rockets. Its Northern and Eastern boundaries are the Pacific Ocean and its western boundary is a mountain range called Te Uruwera, which literally means "the burnt penis". The table you were looking at pretty much puts the health regions kinda sorta in order of north to south. If you want to track how our local health regions are doing with Vax rates I'm in the Wairarapa (for reference, James Cameron owns a farm somewhere around here, but more importantly this area is where the outdoor parts of the path of the dead scenes were filmed for ROTK), my place of work is in Capital and Coast, and I believe @The Marquis de Leech is in Southern. I don't know about other NZers on the board.

At present the govt policy is to not move the country to the new traffic light COVID management system (which eliminates lockdowns as a tool except for extreme situations and will only ever be localised) until all regions are at 90%. But I can see the govt relaxing from that policy a bit if the whole country apart from a couple of low population density regions are at 90% and those regions are in the mid-80s.

I was very glad to see that our big get out the vax day a few weeks back didn't lead to a rebound drop in daily vaccinations. Nationally we're running at about 1% very 8-9 days for first jabs (always quite a drop on weekends) and about 1% every 2-3 days for second jabs. I expect the second jab rate to fall off somewhat as it gets close to 90%.

No Inuits (Inuii?) here. We're north but not that far north.  Seriously, I don't know what the plural of "Inuit" is. 

First nations is tricky. If they got vaccinated in a first nations community, they aren't counted in the daily stats but they do contribute to the provincial total. If they got vaccinated at a Shoppers Drug Mart or a vaccination center because they don't live in a first nation community or they got poked while on a trip to the city, they contribute to the daily number and the total. Either way, I don't think it gets us there. 

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First Nations peoples were the first in line to receive vaccinations (along with the 80+ folk) and the rates are very high. I’ll see if I can find the stats.

eta: I was following rates for the longest time in Ontario, which is Canada’s biggest province, but I can’t see up to date percentages of first and second doses administered. The stories say that there is serious vaccination hesitation by indigenous people in several provinces, no surprise, Saskatchewan, Alberta and BC.

The federal website says 813,450 first doses have been administered, but only 361,809 second doses, which shocked me. 687 communities have vaccination programs, but I don’t know how many communities there are.

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I read today that Tonga have reported their first ever case of Covid-19, making it one of the last countries to report a case. Apparently it's in a quarantine hotel so might hopefully be contained. Looks like their vaccination rate is mediocre (31% full, 17% partial) so probably won't want it getting into the community until they can increase that.

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14 hours ago, Zorral said:

But within another two weeks after the tourists from elsewhere come? Because I have no faith whatsoever in anybody involved, just starting with airline companies themselves, in honestly being honest about authenticated vaccination and tests.

Its definitely a risk.  I would have faith in airlines though (at least the European ones, which i'd be familiar with).  There is a reasonably good system of vaccination passports already existing and it isn't in their interest to not validate it (i.e. there are too many stakeholders keeping an eye on things).  One thing airlines are used to, is all the layers of regulation required.

But at the same time, having more people (even vaccinated) in a city does increase the risk.  Especially as tourists and crowds go hand in hand.  But everything generates risk, and I don't know how your health experts are evaluating this one.

Interestingly, the Nature article is reasonably positive about the next couple of months.  When you come out of one wave, you do normally have a few months before the next one hits.  And buying time for new treatments to emerge is always good.

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2 hours ago, williamjm said:

I read today that Tonga have reported their first ever case of Covid-19, making it one of the last countries to report a case. Apparently it's in a quarantine hotel so might hopefully be contained. Looks like their vaccination rate is mediocre (31% full, 17% partial) so probably won't want it getting into the community until they can increase that.

The government just announced quarantine-free inward travel from some Pacific Islands will start soon, including Tonga. So I hope the quarantine system in Tonga is working well, because it would be very unfortunate if quarantine-free travel had to be withdrawn for Tonga.

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15 hours ago, Fragile Bird said:

First Nations peoples were the first in line to receive vaccinations (along with the 80+ folk) and the rates are very high. I’ll see if I can find the stats.

I don’t know who (Feds or Provinces) deserves more of the credit there, but it really is something to be proud of. For sure there are some communities with lower rates but I think the aggregate stats are good. Certainly better than Australia (yes, we are a pathetic embarrassment on indigenous affairs). 

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10 hours ago, williamjm said:

I read today that Tonga have reported their first ever case of Covid-19, making it one of the last countries to report a case. Apparently it's in a quarantine hotel so might hopefully be contained. Looks like their vaccination rate is mediocre (31% full, 17% partial) so probably won't want it getting into the community until they can increase that.

PISS!!! They got it from us. https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/health/coronavirus/126834693/covid19-christchurch-case-in-tonga-shows-more-community-spread-likely

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An immunologist is warning of potentially “catastrophic” consequences for Tonga, if a case that flew into the island nation isn’t contained.

The person with Covid-19 travelled from Christchurch. It is the first-ever case of the virus for the island nation.

Dr Dianne Sika-Paotonu said news of the case was “heart-breaking” for Tonga.

"Tonga has been one of a group of countries within the Pacific region that has managed to protect its people by keeping the virus out of the country for so long. If this case is not contained, the potential consequences for the Tongan nation will be catastrophic.”

From Christchurch no less which has only just had its first cases in almost a year a couple of days ago.

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5 hours ago, Mlle. Zabzie said:

So almost there on 5-11 in the US.  It’s SO,SO close.

Yeah, just got a notification that our providers will be evaluating early next week after western states consortium and they are expecting to start vaccinating 5-11 year olds between November 4 and the 11th.

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Wow.

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Two Lancaster city police officers were fired earlier this month for submitting forged COVID-19 vaccination cards to the department...

...The city does not mandate employees to get vaccinated, but strongly encourages them to do so, Jess King, chief of staff to Mayor Danene Sorace, told LNP earlier this year.

Employees who are not fully vaccinated must wear masks in city buildings; those who are fully vaccinated do not, according to the policy.

According to Schaeffer and Lapp’s termination paperwork, Capt. Richard Mendez learned in September that the two “had been openly speaking about having fraudulent COVID-19 vaccination cards.

You know what pisses me off more than this story? The fact that these idiots somehow scored a $70K+ job, with benefits, pension. and paid O.T. despite them clearly being as sharp as a bag of hammers. If I was doing jail time because of these clowns, I'd be embarrassed. 

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You know what is pissing me off no end?  NYC has mandated vaccination for all city employees.  The cops and NY firefighters are retiring.  Early.  With great big pensions and health and other benefits for which I'm paying for. 

So much for serve and protect.

And the sanitation people aren't picking up garbage.  After Friday night you see what our neighborhood looks like.  And tomorrow that ridiculous Village Halloween parade that kicks off right on my street.  It's a terror.  And this, after two huge wind and rain storms in a single week.

Gads I hate these people.

In the meantime slowly the teachers are getting vaxxed, coz, guess what? they don't have anything like the retirement, early or late, bennies and pensions that cops get.

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So the news tells me a US government funded non-profit was in collaboration with the virology institute in Wuhan to study coronaviruses in bats and their protein spikes’ ability to latch onto some type of human receptor. What is even real anymore?… I suppose this is the kind of thing we’ll have podcasts about even 10-20 years from now and still never know the truth. 

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7 hours ago, Zorral said:

You know what is pissing me off no end?  NYC has mandated vaccination for all city employees.  The cops and NY firefighters are retiring.  Early.  With great big pensions and health and other benefits for which I'm paying for. 

 

Are they getting what they are entitled for their service level, or getting their full pensions? 

I've got no time for anti vaxxers, but if it's the former, since when should people be denied the benefits they've already accrued? 

People getting shitty about police pensions is a personal bugbear, they aren't free you know, I assume in the US they pay for them like we do (14.5% of my salary, that's why we get good pensions). 

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