Justin Massey - Loyal or Future Traitor?

[Mithras]

On 10/19/2021 at 1:11 AM, Nevets said:

I doubt that Justin Massey is going to runoff with the Iron Bank's (or Stannis's) gold.  There are several reasons for this.

First, I think Justin Massey is actually loyal to Stannis.  As someone pointed out,, he has been through hell and back with the guy, he isn't going to betray him now.  Second, I doubt Massey would care to spend the rest of his life looking over his shoulder.  The Iron Bank has a reputation for ruthlessness, and wouldn't take the loss of their money lightly.  Thirdly, he probably won't have access to much gold in the first place.  The Iron Bank doesn'[t seem like a very trusting bunch.  The will probably use procedures like notes or delivery of cash by the bank itself to minimize the likelihood of diversion of funds.  

I'm not sure what will happen with FArya.  While it's possible Massey might make a play for her, but if she has any sense she will keep him at a distance.  The person she is pretending to be would be expected to set her sights higher.  in any event, the NW will probably send FArya with Nestoris and Massey (and maybe Alysane Mormont) on, especially with Ramsay apparently on the warpath.  They don't want her around if he shows up.  I expect Nestoris may offer to foster her in Braavos.  He can probably afford it, and would expect future goodwill and a useful business contact for helping a member of House Stark.  If she does go to Braavos, the real Arya will probably hear of her and go to investigate.

The Iron Bank will not deliver him chests full of gold. If Massey survives long enough and if the Iron Bank decides to keep their promise to Stannis, Massey will simply get a paper. He will use that paper to pay any mercenary he can find. Since the paper is issued by the Iron Bank, every trader or institution will respect it.

 

Anyway, I don't think Stannis is getting any mercenaries. Massey will be killed by Arya for trying to claim fArya for himself. The Iron Bank will hedge their bets on another contender with a higher chance for winning.

[Darth Sidious]

Justin has no chance of becoming king on his own. But all that gold make him attractive to a woman who wants to fund and equip a lot of soldiers. Dany, Cersei, Asha. One of these women could make him useful. 

[Megorova]

On 10/13/2021 at 7:20 PM, Canon Claude said:

GRRM almost never allows things to play out according to characters’ spoken plans, so what’s going to happen with Justin? 

Tycho Nestoris, who is not merely an envoy of the Iron Bank, but also a Faceless Man, is going to kill Justin. Then he will take his face, and will return to Stannis' camp. Maybe already with 20.000 sellswords, though those guys actually will be from the Force Bravo (Braavosi water-dancers) and the Faceless Men Guild.

And additionally Tycho/Justin will take fArya as a hostage, to assure that Jon will abide to his agreement with the Iron Bank. That's because Tycho, despite being one of the FM, could not know that they already have the real Arya Stark under their control. That Syrio Forel/Jaqen had already sent her to Braavos to the Sealord/Arya's Kindly Man/the leader of the FM.

So Justin isn't going to remain loyal, nor will he become a traitor. Because he will be dead. And that other Justin, who will replace him, definitely will betray Stannis, because he's an agent of the Sealord and the FM Guild.

[Darth Sidious]

Edric doesn’t have a strong enough claim to attract Justin.  Cersei is unmarried but the I/B will frown on their loan going to her. Shireen is too young and disfigured, but hey, a marriage is about power. He could do as commanded and support her claim. Asha and Dany are other options.