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Heresy 239: Reflections


Black Crow

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47 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

That could be interesting since some sources claim the Andals did come 6000 years ago. The True History states the Andals came 4000 years ago, while maesters claim it was only 2000 years ago, yet the Nights King was supposedly 6000 years ago with the Long Night and the coming of the Others being 8000 years ago. If the Nights King was 2000 years after the Long Night, surely there were more than 13 Lord Commanders in 2000 years?

Yes, exactly.  I think we only have records of the NW from the arrival of the Andals at the Wall and no records kept before then.  So we only have a jumble of what was recorded since then.  I'm guessing the first arrival was around 6000 years with cessation of hostility at Moat Cailin and the first knights sent to the Wall.  I think there have been additional waves of Andal coinciding with their conflict with dragon lords in Essos.  So we have records of invasions at 4,000 and 2,000 years.  I think the Wall is around 8 to 10,000 years old.  So no records before the Andalization of the NW.  I think the NW was more likely a religious brotherhood with a function as gatekeepers before then; rather than a military operation.  I think Coldhands is an artifact and contemporary of the Night King, one of his brothers.  He's the only remaining gatekeeper from that time.  However, Sam is now a gatekeeper as well, indoctrinated into it's mystery by Coldhands. 

So basically, the Night King is contemporary with the Andal arrival at the Wall or the 13th LC since their arrival rather than the 13th since the beginning of the Wall for which there are no records.

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7 minutes ago, LynnS said:

Yes, exactly.  I think we only have records of the NW from the arrival of the Andals at the Wall and no records kept before then.  So we only have a jumble of what was recorded since then.  I'm guessing the first arrival was around 6000 years with cessation of hostility at Moat Cailin and the first knights sent to the Wall.  I think there have been additional waves of Andal coinciding with their conflict with dragon lords in Essos.  So we have records of invasions at 4,000 and 2,000 years.  I think the Wall is around 8 to 10,000 years old.  So no records before the Andalization of the NW.  I think the NW was more likely a religious brotherhood with a function as gatekeepers before then; rather than a military operation.  I think Coldhands is an artifact and contemporary of the Night King, one of his brothers.  He's the only remaining gatekeeper from that time.  However, Sam is now a gatekeeper as well, indoctrinated into it's mystery by Coldhands. 

There's nothing that states that the Andal invasion was a single, coordinated event with military leaders, etc. It was more like large groups of migrants seeking a new home, fleeing from the dragon lords, except they weren't peaceful. They may have been more like the Vikings that were looking for land to colonize. They didn't do it peacefully. They killed and pillaged and took the land. The Andals could have been more like that and that is why they are described as fanatical warriors with the 7-pointed star carved into their foreheads. Some groups took the land for themselves and some assimilated with First Men families through marriage pacts - probably as a means to an end of fighting.

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Just now, Melifeather said:

There's nothing that states that the Andal invasion was a single, coordinated event with military leaders, etc. It was more like large groups of migrants seeking a new home, fleeing from the dragon lords, except they weren't peaceful...more like the Vikings that were looking for land to colonize. They didn't do it peacefully. They killed and pillaged and took the land. The Andals could have been more like that and that is why they are described as fanatical warriors with the 7-pointed star carved into their foreheads. Some groups took the land for themselves and some assimilated with First Men families through marriage pacts - probably as a means to an end of fighting.

Sure that's reasonable.  

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The Andalisation of the Iron Islands might be the one with the most recent timeline if Maester Denestan is correct. He places the last kingsmoot just 2000 years ago. The Greyirons then ruled for a thousand years (or something like that) until they were deposed by an alliance of Andal pirates, Hoares, Grejoys and others.

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55 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

There's nothing that states that the Andal invasion was a single, coordinated event with military leaders, etc. It was more like large groups of migrants seeking a new home, fleeing from the dragon lords, except they weren't peaceful. They may have been more like the Vikings that were looking for land to colonize. They didn't do it peacefully. They killed and pillaged and took the land. The Andals could have been more like that and that is why they are described as fanatical warriors with the 7-pointed star carved into their foreheads. Some groups took the land for themselves and some assimilated with First Men families through marriage pacts - probably as a means to an end of fighting.

I remember coming across Andals being compared to the Puritans, but sadly I don't know much about Puritans to understand the connection, would it make sense to compare them? 

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On 10/28/2021 at 5:54 AM, Black Crow said:

The first threat grows from the emnity between the great houses of Lannister and Stark as it plays out in a cycle of plot, counterplot, ambition, murder, and revenge, with the iron throne of the Seven Kingdoms as the ultimate prize. This will form the backbone of the first volume of the trilogy, A Game of Thrones.
While the lion of Lannister and the direwolf of Stark snarl and scrap, however, a second and greater threat takes shape across the narrow sea, where the Dothraki horselords mass their barbarian hordes for a great invasion of the Seven Kingdoms, led by the fierce and beautiful Daenerys Stormborn, the last of the Targaryen dragonlords. The Dothraki invasion will be the central story of my second volume, A Dance with Dragons.
The greatest danger of all, however, comes from the north, from the icy wastes beyond the Wall, where half-forgotten demons out of legend, the inhuman others, raise cold legions of the undead and the neverborn and prepare to ride down on the winds of winter to extinguish everything that we would call "life." The only thing that stands between the Seven Kingdoms and an endless night is the Wall, and a handful of men in black called the Night's Watch. Their story will be [sic] heart of my third volume, The Winds of Winter. The final battle will also draw together characters and plot threads left from the first two books and resolve all in one huge climax.
The thirteen chapters on hand should give you a notion as to my narrative strategy. All three books will feature a complex mosaic of intercutting points-of-view among various of my large and diverse cast of players. The cast will not always remain the same. Old characters will die, and new ones will be introduced. Some of the fatalities will include sympathetic viewpoint characters. I want the reader to feel that no one is ever completely safe, not even the characters who seem to be the heroes. The suspense always ratchets up a notch when you know that any character can die at any time.

First threat or conflict to be resolved is between the houses of Lannister and Stark. 

People have argued back and forth as to whether or not Tywin Lannister was an ally of the Rebels or an opportunist that joined in at the last minute. GRRM's words in this letter indicate a conflict between Lannister and Stark which is seemingly resolved when house Stark - as a power - is destroyed. Why would Tywin want House Stark destroyed? Did Rickard take advantage of Tytos somehow in the past? Surely we would have had some inkling. The only issue that I can see is that Rickard made a marriage pact to marry Lyanna to Robert Baratheon. That must have bothered Tywin since one of his motivators was to make Cersei a queen.

Second threat or conflict is a Dothraki invasion of Westeros.

I'm probably an outlier in thinking GRRM completely changed his mind with this one. I don't believe Daenerys will come to Westeros...ever.

Quaithe kept reminding Daenerys to remember who she is. Daenerys "choice" can basically be summed up by looking at who she prefers between Hizdahr over Daario. She's trying to be politically correct by choosing Hizdahr when her nature desires Daario. The politically correct choice would be to rule Meereen, but I think she's done with Hizdahr. He's weak and indecisive and she'll never trust him. Daario is more exciting and appeals to her wilder nature, because she's a dragonlord at heart. If she does manage to take control of Jhaqo's Dothraki khalasar, I have the feeling she'll use them to conquer Essos rather than bring them to Westeros.

Third threat or conflict is the return of the Others.

Since I believe the wildlings are the Others, they have already successfully passed through the Wall. Yes, they have left some white walkers and an army of wights behind, but as long as the Wall remains they cannot pass, right? Any humans on the north side of the Wall will perish and join the army of the dead. What I think might happen is Jon Snow - who has been released from his NW vows - will be resurrected much like Beric Dondarrion - not quite human anymore. He could decide to use the army of the dead as a weapon of revenge, and descend upon Winterfell and eventually make his way south all the way to Kings Landing. The only way to end all this death and destruction will be to destroy magic - something that I expect Bran will have to figure out how to do.

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1 hour ago, Melifeather said:

Well, I've never believed the R+L=J story so to me its place in the story is one of deflection or distraction. GRRM has stated that he wants to surprise and delight us, that he doesn't want to write something that the reader will easily guess his mysteries.

He also said that he wanted to write a story that his mother couldn't figure out.  By extension, one that reader's can't anticipate or figure out.  As far as Jon is concerned, he is Stark blood and that is stamped on his face.  So the question posed to D&D about Jon's mother is a test of their assumption having read the book.  Not a test of whether they could convince GRRM that they had read the book.  Jon is either Ned's son or Lyanna's son.  So if your assumption is that Ned is the father then who is the mother?  They answered Lyanna, so their assumption is that the father is Rhaegar.   GRRM doesn't actually confirm that answer; but because he agreed that they could do the show; D&D assumed that was the correct answer.  It may not be. It might be the answer he wanted to hear.  It may have answered his question about whether he's been successful in writing a story that nobody can anticipate. 

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36 minutes ago, asongofheresy said:

I remember coming across Andals being compared to the Puritans, but sadly I don't know much about Puritans to understand the connection, would it make sense to compare them? 

The Puritans were religious fanatics that didn't think the English Anglican Church was Protestant enough, so I can see that comparison with the overly zealous warriors of the Faith of the Seven. But the Puritans tried to keep themselves separate from unbelievers. 

Every time England got a new king or queen the national religion could change. Henry VIII left the Catholic faith and started the Anglican Church of England, because he wanted to divorce his Spanish-Catholic wife, Catherine of Aragon. After Henry died there was a succession of heirs that flipped between Protestants and Catholics. You could be subject to imprisonment, torture, or even death if you happened to be a different religion than the king/queen. After Henry VIII's daughter Elizabeth died the monarchy fell into the hands of the Stuarts who promptly restored the Catholic faith. This was around the 1600's and this is when the Puritan clergy and their congregations fled to America. Alot of these Puritans were merchants and even nobility so they had money to fund their own ships, brought servants and slaves with them, and hired soldiers for protection. One of my ancestors actually came over on a Puritan ship along with his wife as an Ensign and was part of the hired defense.

There's actually a number of religious groups in America that have splintered off the Puritans including Mormons, Baptists, Congregationalists, Quakers, and Methodists. Most of these religions preach keeping themselves separate from the world, so intermarriage outside the faith would be looked down upon and perhaps even sinful enough to get excommunicated. 

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2 minutes ago, Melifeather said:

The Puritans were religious fanatic that didn't think the English Protestants were Protestant enough, so I can see that comparison with the overly zealous warrior of the Faith of the Seven. But the Puritans tried to keep themselves separate from unbelievers. 

Every time England got a new king or queen the national religion could change. Henry VIII left the Catholic faith and started the Anglican Church of England, because he wanted to divorce his Spanish-Catholic wife, Catherine of Aragon. After Henry died there was a succession of heirs that flipped between Protestants and Catholics. You could be subject to imprisonment, torture, or even death if you happened to be a different religion than the king/queen. After Henry VIII's daughter Elizabeth died the monarchy fell into the hands of the Stuarts who promptly restored the Catholic faith. This was around the 1600's and this is when the Puritan clergy and their congregations fled to America. Alot of these Puritans were merchants and even nobility so they had money to fund their own ships, brought servants and slaves with them, and hired soldiers for protection. One of my ancestors actually came over on a Puritan ship along with his wife as an Ensign and was part of the hired defense.

There's actually a number of religious groups in America that have splintered off the Puritans including Mormons, Baptists, Congregationalists, Quakers, and Methodists. Most of these religions preach keeping themselves separate from the world, so intermarriage outside the faith would be looked down upon and perhaps even sinful enough to get excommunicated. 

If not Puritans, can we compare Andal invasions to Turkic migrations to Anatolia, truth be told that process started during the time of Balamir the Hun and migrations from Turkic communities continue to this day, so a hundred percent match isn't possible again.

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22 minutes ago, LynnS said:

He also said that he wanted to write a story that his mother couldn't figure out.  By extension, one that reader's can't anticipate or figure out.  As far as Jon is concerned, he is Stark blood and that is stamped on his face.  So the question posed to D&D about Jon's mother is a test of their assumption having read the book.  Not a test of whether they could convince GRRM that they had read the book.  Jon is either Ned's son or Lyanna's son.  So if your assumption is that Ned is the father then who is the mother?  They answered Lyanna, so their assumption is that the father is Rhaegar.   GRRM doesn't actually confirm that answer; but because he agreed that they could do the show; D&D assumed that was the correct answer.  It may not be. It might be the answer he wanted to hear.  It may have answered his question about whether he's been successful in writing a story that nobody can anticipate. 

I believe Ned is Jon's father and that Ashara is his mother. I think Ashara actually gave birth to Jon at Winterfell and left him there with a wet-nurse. Her suicide was an elaborate fake to conceal her new identity as Wylla. And I think Ned went along with it out of guilt for not being able to marry her.

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3 hours ago, Black Crow said:

In reflecting I'm referencing how our perceptions of what the story is about have evolved over the last 10 years.

I've changed my mind about so many things, it's not funny.  I still feel like I have bits and pieces only.   

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So, in AGOT, Jon thinks Sansa looked radiant while walking with Joffrey. Which surely is positive as Sansa is beautiful and looked her best for the feast I suppose. In ASOS, Catelyn thinks Lysa cried lakes before her marriage to Jon Arryn, but managed to look dry eyed and radiant when he put his cloak on her shoulders. There radiant seems to be a false sense of happiness. In AFFC, Jaime calls Cersei radiant, but in his inner thoughts he says fickle, again a negative connection. And in ADWD, Reznak no Reznak claims "Daenerys is so radiant, he fears to look on her" a sly hint of fear maybe, i just found it interesting how Sansa has no negative connection to the word compared to other three, this was something I didn't notice until today. 

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A few random thoughts, not necessarily connected.

The date discrepancies might have their origin in First Men counting in full moons and Andals in years. Westeros has not really evolved in terms of technology and society since 8,000 years, which is hard to believe. 660 years is more believable.

R+L=J has all the tropes of the classic fantasy story. The parents being secret lovers, and their families archenemies. Both die young. Which leaves a hidden prince who will claim his legacy and save the day.

I still hope R+L=J is not true, that would destroy the books for me.

One hint might be the trope of the magic sword. Jon cannot claim Dawn unless Arthur Dayne is his father or Ashara his mother. I doubt both by now.

Two things that puzzle me for a while:

- GRRM is often named the best thing since sliced bread on this board, yet in the same thread another hidden reference is discovered, and it looks like he combined everything from other sources. That does not fit.

I think he read a lot, wrote a lot, and saw a lot of movies, and a lot of this is echoed without intention or hidden meaning.

- the story has already ended and he didn't tell. I elaborated on this a few heresies ago. The story no one can figure out is the one without an end. That's why we are still discussing it, and why it feels so real despite dragons and magic.

 

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The lunar, solar, and maybe even lunisolar claneders would create differences yes, in Quran Noah's age is first counted with solar years, fifty at the time of the Flood, and after that it is counted with lunar years, 900 moons, iirc 33~ years after the flood, so 83 when he died, but mistakenly Noah is believed to be 950 when he died. Now Noah is also name of an ancient Yemeni House, that were 500 years old at the time of the flood, seperated into three branches after it and continue to exists for 450 years until it collapsed. 

I have trouble understanding what makes Jon special, he gets to be raised in Winterfell, he gets a direwolf, he is given a Valyrian sword by Mormont, I still see him as bastard of Ned Stark though. 

Wait, could the time in Westeros be calculated through the passing of Red Comet or even according to Zodiac cycle, a Zodiac cycle lasts for 25,850 years. 

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49 minutes ago, asongofheresy said:

The lunar, solar, and maybe even lunisolar claneders would create differences yes, in Quran Noah's age is first counted with solar years, fifty at the time of the Flood, and after that it is counted with lunar years, 900 moons, iirc 33~ years after the flood, so 83 when he died, but mistakenly Noah is believed to be 950 when he died. Now Noah is also name of an ancient Yemeni House, that were 500 years old at the time of the flood, seperated into three branches after it and continue to exists for 450 years until it collapsed. 

I have trouble understanding what makes Jon special, he gets to be raised in Winterfell, he gets a direwolf, he is given a Valyrian sword by Mormont, I still see him as bastard of Ned Stark though. 

Wait, could the time in Westeros be calculated through the passing of Red Comet or even according to Zodiac cycle, a Zodiac cycle lasts for 25,850 years. 

We've discussed the Zodiac cycle in the past. Actually, I think I'm the one that actually brought it up! Are you talking about the precession of the equinoxes? It's been so long I cannot recall what point I was trying to make! But the idea of time changing and the use of lunar years is interesting, because if there used to be two moons then time would be different after one blew up, right!

Edited to add...the last few pages of Heresy 28 discusses various religions and Messiah beliefs and then into the precession of equinoxes, etc...we also discussed Zoroastrianism and Ahura Mazda, which if you repeat it over and over begins to sound somewhat similar to Azor Ahai.

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Does everyone know where to find all the older Heresy threads? If not, here are directions:

Find the pinned thread in A Dance with Dragons forum titled, The Heretic's Guide to Heresy. Look in the first post for a spoiler tag. If you click on it you'll find links to the older, archived threads.

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9 hours ago, Melifeather said:

We've discussed the Zodiac cycle in the past. Actually, I think I'm the one that actually brought it up! Are you talking about the precession of the equinoxes? It's been so long I cannot recall what point I was trying to make! But the idea of time changing and the use of lunar years is interesting, because if there used to be two moons then time would be different after one blew up, right!

Edited to add...the last few pages of Heresy 28 discusses various religions and Messiah beliefs and then into the precession of equinoxes, etc...we also discussed Zoroastrianism and Ahura Mazda, which if you repeat it over and over begins to sound somewhat similar to Azor Ahai.

True, two moons then one, obviously there will be a time differences. I am really weak on the subjects of Messiah figures, since I believe Isa lived and died and won't come back like others believe, i also don't have a belief of Mehdi or Antichrist, so they don't feel like subjects I can comment on. 

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1 hour ago, asongofheresy said:

True, two moons then one, obviously there will be a time differences. I am really weak on the subjects of Messiah figures, since I believe Isa lived and died and won't come back like others believe, i also don't have a belief of Mehdi or Antichrist, so they don't feel like subjects I can comment on. 

I was raised a catholic boy but consider myself as being not religious since thirty years. Still, Jon coming back from the dead is a no-go for me.

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Just to throw a spanner into the discussion...

GRRM had been writing this story for 20 years when A Dance of Dragons was published [and Heresy began] and he's now been at it for 30 years. He's not dead so we can reasonably assume that the story has evolved and even changed in the process.

 

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2 hours ago, alienarea said:

I was raised a catholic boy but consider myself as being not religious since thirty years. Still, Jon coming back from the dead is a no-go for me.

I think Jon dying and staying dead will be more impactful for me, but that's just my opinion, I don't want him to come back, and I am also sceptic of savior figures, I believe humanity should save itself without needing any big bad to unite them. 

A question, is it possible to write AFFC and ADWD in a way to include sample chapters so the infamous four battles will start a mere ten years earlier?

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